Showing papers in "International journal of disaster risk reduction in 2013"
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine existing resilience indices in relation to economic principles and evaluate their potential to gauge and improve post-disaster economic recovery, with a focus on businesses, and conclude that the majority of indicators in use to date are not necessarily pertinent to measuring resilience at the micro-, meso- and macroeconomic levels in the aftermath of a disaster.
Abstract: Several attempts have recently been made to identify the key indicators of community resilience and to group them into an overall resilience index. These studies support the evaluation of the effectiveness of resilience during recovery, and they also help establish a yardstick by which to monitor progress in resilience enhancement over time. We examine existing resilience indices in relation to economic principles and evaluate their potential to gauge and improve post-disaster economic recovery, with a focus on businesses. We conclude that the majority of indicators in use to date are not necessarily pertinent to measuring resilience at the micro-, meso- and macro-economic levels in the aftermath of a disaster. Contending that business behavior is the key to short-term recovery, we propose a framework for choosing appropriate short-run indicators toward the goal of developing an effective economic resilience index.
242 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed an index for a disaster-resilient coastal community at the local level, where the composites of the index were determined through a process of prioritizing national-level components of a risk management and vulnerability reduction system.
Abstract: The increased number of natural hazards due to climate variability has resulted in numerous disasters in developing countries. In the Philippines, these are expected to be more common in coastal areas. The common approach to mitigate disasters in this area is to enhance the inherent capabilities of local communities to reduce the effects. Thus, this study proposed an index for a disaster-resilient coastal community at the local level. The composites of the index were determined through a process of prioritizing national-level components of a risk-management and vulnerability-reduction system. The process followed a Delphi technique, wherein 20 decision makers in Baler, Aurora, the Philippines identified criteria and elements that can be used to reduce the vulnerability of coastal communities using paired comparisons for the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results showed that the environmental and natural resource management, sustainable livelihood, social protection, and planning regimes were very important and represented ≥70% of the overall weights of criteria subjected to comparisons. These criteria and their elements represented the local-level outcome indicators of the composite index for a disaster-resilient coastal community, which was measured using a weighted linear average (WLC) approach to both outcome and process indicators. The index could be used by local governments as a tool to facilitate meaningful disaster-risk reduction and management.
226 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explored people's indigenous survival strategies and variations in people's ability to cope with floods in two flood-prone villages of Muzarabani district, Zimbabwe and found that the extent to which indigenous knowledge enhanced resilience to floods was influenced by geophysical locations, exposure to flooding and socioeconomic abilities.
Abstract: The connection between indigenous knowledge systems and disaster resilience derives from both theory and practice highlighting potential contributions of indigenous knowledge to building resilient communities Using data from interviews and focus group discussions, this paper explores people’s indigenous survival strategies and variations in people’s ability to cope with floods in two flood-prone villages of Muzarabani district, Zimbabwe The findings reveal that indigenous knowledge systems played a significant role in reducing the impact of floods in Muzarabani district However, the extent to which indigenous knowledge enhanced resilience to floods was influenced by geophysical locations, exposure to flooding and socio-economic abilities Communities in an area with low flooding and with a strong socio-economic base such as education and income were more likely to cope with flood impacts compared to those communities in areas with high and sudden flooding and weak socio-economic base The paper shows how indigenous knowledge systems are an indispensable component of disaster resilience building This is because indigenous knowledge systems can, (i) be transferred and adapted to other communities; (ii) encourage participation and empowerment of affected communities, (iii) improve intervention adaptation to local contexts, and (iv) are often beyond formal education about environmental hazards
127 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors have identified human stampedes as a major hazard that could occur during mass gathering events in India, as well as anywhere in the world where people crowd together.
Abstract: Human stampedes have been identified as a major hazard that could occur during mass gathering events in India, as well as anywhere in the world where people crowd together. This study compiles and analyses stampede data from religious, entertainment and political gatherings over the last five decades in India to derive an effective risk reduction framework for mass gatherings. Religious gatherings and pilgrimages have been venues for 79% of the stampedes in India. Noticeable occurrences and casualties have been reported from 15 Indian states and there have been instances of recurrent stampedes at certain locations. Risk management strategies to tackle stampedes during religious festivals are quite inadequate and have failed consistently in India because of the large crowds and the constantly widening spread of the venue. The triggers of human stampedes have been identified from case studies and it is concluded that a simple accident, an intentional act or even a rumor can trigger a crowd disturbance. Hence the organizers have to take into consideration the causes of crowd disturbance for ensuring safety in mass gatherings. The vulnerability of religious gatherings is also increased due to venue inadequacies like remote or hazard-prone setting, poor facilities, or lack of basic infrastructure and medical care centers. The risk factors identified from the study of past incidents have lead to the development of a basic framework aligned on four interlinked compartments for inter-agency cooperation and multi-disciplinary contemplation ranging from hazard identification to the execution of mitigation measures for human stampede risk reduction.
119 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assess the vulnerability of the Cologne urban population to heat waves, taking into consideration a range of social and ecological variables, and suggest that ecosystem management in Cologne and its surroundings be improved.
Abstract: More than three-quarters of the European population live in urban areas and this proportion is increasing, leading, in some cases, to increased vulnerability of cities to environmental hazards. The health impacts of heat waves are aggravated in cities due to the high density of buildings, the fragmentation of green areas and the higher concentrations of air pollutants. Ecosystems can provide important benefits that mitigate the impacts of heat waves but at the same time can themselves be affected by the hazard, thus limiting their services. The objective of this study was to assess the vulnerability of the Cologne urban population to heat waves, taking into consideration a range of social and ecological variables. Based on the MOVE framework, indicators were developed and GIS applications were used to spatially assess the relative vulnerability of the 85 districts of Cologne to heat waves. The insights gained were integrated and corroborated with the outcomes of stakeholders' interviews. As environmental factors play a major role in this assessment, it is suggested that ecosystem management in Cologne and its surroundings be improved. In addition, though vulnerability is higher in central districts, attention needs to be paid to the periphery where the most susceptible groups reside.
101 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the main focus of this paper is to understand the perception and understanding about drought by the farming households, and their coping and adaptive mechanism, which implies for specific policy and practice oriented solutions in order to cope with and adapt in drought situation.
Abstract: Balochistan is prone to drought and has been impacted severely during 1998–2002. The people are engaged in orchard and livestock farming activities for earning their livelihoods. The main focus of this paper is to understand the perception and understanding about drought by the farming households, and their coping and adaptive mechanism. This study is based on both secondary and primary sources of data collected from 215 farm households following a structured questionnaire survey. The results indicate that farmers' perception regarding climatic variability and drought are in line with the results obtained using the secondary climatic data and information. Even though the respondents have religious belief in interpreting the weather related issues, the climatic and environmental factors such as increased temperature, decreased precipitation, change in the timing of rainy season, and other factors like inadequate supply of electricity for irrigation, over exploitation of groundwater, population growth etc were also recognized and mentioned by them that aggravate the drought severity in the area. As a consequence of drought, proportionate losses in fruits production and livestock are higher among poorer and marginal land holding farmers. To cope with the drought, they have adapted a number of strategies at farm and off-farm levels that include crop and water management practices, adjustment in agricultural inputs, seeking off-farm employment, assets depletion, consumption smoothing, borrowing, and migrating to other places to seek alternative sources of income. This study implies for specific policy and practice oriented solutions in order to cope with and adapt in drought situation.
92 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored the cultural issues using as a basis observations made by the authors during field visits to areas afflicted by the last three major events (Chile, Indonesia, and Japan).
Abstract: Since the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, there is a growing awareness of the risks that tsunamis pose to coastal communities. Despite the fact that the population of some countries such as Chile and Japan were aware of such events, many other places had virtually not heard about such phenomenon before 2004. Nevertheless, the frequent reoccurrence of major tsunamis in recent years has led to a heightened state of tsunami awareness in many areas of the world, which can be described by an increased knowledge, disaster preparedness and willingness of local populations to evacuate when the threat of these events arises. However, the response of different elements of society to tsunami warnings nowadays still appears to be inadequate a times, pointing to lack of awareness by at least some individuals, an over-reliance in defence mechanisms or lacking in the transmission of knowledge from previous events. This paper will explore these cultural issues using as a basis observations made by the authors during field visits to areas afflicted by the last three major events (Chile, Indonesia, and Japan). The level of tsunami awareness prior to these events will be explored through an analysis on the existence of multiple layers of safety against tsunami developed by previous generations, and whether these had been preserved over time. The potential impact of these major tsunamis in the development of tsunami awareness will be analysed based on questionnaires that indicate the willingness of local coastal communities to invest in disaster preparedness.
91 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate potential gaps between how leading professionals approach such capacity development and guidelines found in available theory and reveal that there are gaps between theory and practice, as well as between the practitioners, in all seven elements identified in available theories.
Abstract: Although capacity development has been identified as the means to substantially reduce global disaster losses, it is a challenge for external partners to facilitate the development of sustainable capacities for disaster risk reduction in disaster-prone countries. The purpose of this study is to investigate potential gaps between how leading professionals approach such capacity development and guidelines found in available theory. The analysis of data from thirty-five qualitative semi-structured interviews reveals that there are gaps between theory and practise, as well as between the practitioners, in all seven elements identified in available theory. There is ambiguity regarding terminology, different views about the meaning of local context, ownership and capacity assessment, as well as contradicting opinions of the role and responsibilities of external partners. Focus is on training individuals, while other requisites are often ignored, and there is a general lack of understanding of what results to assess and how to monitor and evaluate projects.
77 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors evaluated the disaster management act 2010 in Pakistan (PNDMA 2010) and found that the Act emphasises mainly on institution building and action plan development for mitigating disasters in the country.
Abstract: Human suffering has multiplied in recent years due to increased frequency and intensity of natural hazards, which are expected to rise in the coming years due to climate change. Admittedly, risks to humans from natural hazards cannot be eliminated completely, but they can be reduced through systematic approaches such as disaster risks reduction (DRR) approaches that can be scientifically applied for minimising vulnerability and building resilience in society through multi-sectoral and multi-dimensional measures. Considering the importance of DRR approaches in reducing impacts of disasters, the aim of this paper is to analyse the disaster risk and disaster management policies and practices in Pakistan. The objective is to evaluate the Disaster Management Act 2010 in Pakistan (PNDMA 2010). Through critical review of PNDMA 2010, this study has found that the Act emphasises mainly on institution building and action plan development for mitigating disasters in the country. The Act does not directly mention disaster risk reduction and there are no directions with regard to the budgetary mechanisms and extent of funds from disaster risk management (DRM) in the country. The DRM in Pakistan is reactive and there is a need for revision of PDMA 2010 to make it proactive.
73 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a model and definitions of what it means to be prepared for wildfire, considering the exposure of the property, the ability of the structure to withstand such an exposure and whether the resident(s) are adequately prepared.
Abstract: Wildfire can result in significant loss of property and lives. Evidence shows that residents can decrease the risk of loss when they stay to defend their property. In order to safely defend a property, residents need to be adequately prepared for the wildfire conditions they face. Residents who wish to evacuate prior to the arrival of a wildfire also need to prepare their property and themselves for such an action. Despite the importance of preparation, there are no clear and quantifiable definitions of what it means to be prepared for different exposures to wildfire. Here we develop a model and definitions of what it means to be prepared for wildfire. The model considers the exposure of the property, the ability of the structure to withstand such an exposure and whether the resident(s) are adequately prepared. Preparation considers the physical and mental capacity of the residents, the condition of the grounds and the equipment available to defend the property. The model and definitions presented here focus on identifying points of weakness that should be addressed. An improved model and definitions will provide a benchmark for those residents who do prepare for wildfire, potentially reducing the risk of loss of property and life. However they are unlikely to address the large proportion of the at risk population that elect not to prepare for wildfire.
67 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the factors affecting coordination for long-term recovery of the 2004 tsunami in Tamil Nadu, India using semi-structured interviews with different actors involved in the recovery process.
Abstract: Coordination during disaster recovery is one of the most neglected areas of disaster risk management, as the majority of literature on coordination focuses on disaster response. The purpose of the study is to investigate the factors affecting coordination for long-term recovery. For this purpose, the study uses semi-structured interviews with different actors involved in the recovery process of the 2004 tsunami in Tamil Nadu, India. The study highlights five key factors that affect coordination in long-term recovery: (1) the need to coordinate; (2) the role of the government; (3) knowledge networking; (4) mandates and goals and (5) coordination at the donor level. Finally, the study indicates a potential for applying a governance perspective on disaster recovery coordination, which needs to be further researched.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors identify the need for further understanding of this mechanism to better inform policies geared toward disaster risk reduction and conclude that a sustainable livelihood approach is essential, one that is more cognizant of people's perception, values and priorities.
Abstract: Over the last few decades remittances sent to the least wealthy countries have been considerably augmented. In most Small Island Developing States (SIDS), remittances are important in sustaining people's daily livelihood. Moreover, there is growing evidence that remittances intensify significantly during crisis events, thus representing a powerful and reactive mechanism in time of hardship. However, the short-term and economistic approach to remittances of most research has produced limited knowledge regarding the role of this practice in time of disaster. This paper identifies the need for further understanding of this mechanism to better inform policies geared toward disaster risk reduction. The focus is on Pacific Island Countries (PICs), where remittances and risks of disasters are elevated. This paper suggests that remittances can be both a weakness created within the vulnerability context and a strength that enables people to cope with and recover from shocks. Understanding both aspects implies appraising the function of remittances in people's day-to-day livelihood and comprehending the tangible and more intangible reasons for this mechanism to perform in the face of natural hazards. Hence, it is argued that a sustainable livelihood approach is essential, one that is more cognizant of people's perception, values and priorities. This paper concludes that building on this coping mechanism would help in achieving goals of vulnerability reduction to disasters.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed the decentralization of the disaster management institutions in the community of Baluchistan, using interviews of key actors in government and non-governmental organizations involved in disaster risk reduction and management activities.
Abstract: After the 2005 earthquake in Kashmir, the Pakistani government set up the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) to handle future disasters and then created Provincial Disaster Management Authorities in all the provinces. This paper analyzes the decentralization of the disaster management institutions in the community of Baluchistan, using interviews of key actors in government and non-governmental organizations involved in disaster risk reduction and management activities. The data revealed that disasters in Baluchistan are still handled at the provincial level and that disaster institutions are not yet fully implemented at the district and community levels. This has exacerbated the people's vulnerability to disasters. The paper recommends efficient preparedness and coordination of provincial and national level agencies to enhance community awareness and preparedness. In addition, the paper concludes that disaster management authorities should implement programs and activities to empower communities for disaster risk reduction.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine what being physically and mentally "well prepared" actually means to wildfire agency staff and volunteers in charge of disseminating risk information, and conclude that wildfire risk communication efforts can be improved through heightened attention to the disseminators' as well as the recipients' understanding, explanation and adoption of risk information.
Abstract: Building on a recognised information-to-action gap in wildfire risk communication, this paper examines what being physically and mentally ‘well prepared’ actually means to wildfire agency staff and volunteers in charge of disseminating risk information. Using the results of an open-ended survey conducted in southeast Australia, we examine how a set of preparedness messages is interpreted. The paper demonstrates that the concept of wildfire preparedness is ambiguous, and that being ‘well prepared’ is a complex mix of practical and mental preparedness measures. Many of the individual interpretations of preparedness messages are found to not align with the official outlined intent. In particular, we argue that the lack of a clear definition and engagement with ‘mental preparedness’ in wildfire risk communication has resulted in an inability to clearly relate to, and articulate what it means to be both physically and mentally prepared for wildfire. The survey illustrates how even well-trained wildfire management professionals and volunteers misinterpret relatively uncontested risk messages, and we describe how these misinterpretations might result in dangerous decisions if wildfire threat is realised. The work also reveals three key themes that define different aspects of mental preparedness: emotional control, understanding psychological strain, and the ability to know when and how to implement a wildfire plan. The paper concludes that wildfire risk communication efforts can be improved through heightened attention to the disseminators’ as well as the recipients’ understanding, explanation and adoption of risk information.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that preventive measures to reduce the risk are preferred over reactive measures but, in the case of landslides, reactive measures may not always be sufficient.
Abstract: Landslide risk is a function of the probability of the event and its consequences. Previous research has shown that preventive measures to reduce the risk are preferred over reactive measures but, ...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used satellite estimated rainfall inputs to develop drought vulnerability models in the drought prone areas in Malawi, and the results would help in establishing an early monitoring mechanism for drought impact assessment, give the decision makers additional time to assess seasonal outcomes, and identify potential food-related hazards.
Abstract: During 1990s, disaster risk reduction emerged as a novel, proactive approach to managing risks from natural hazards. The World Bank, USAID, and other international donor agencies began making efforts to mainstream disaster risk reduction in countries whose population and economies were heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. This approach has more significance in light of the increasing climatic hazard patterns and the climate scenarios projected for different hazard prone countries in the world. The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) has been monitoring the food security issues in the sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and in Haiti. FEWS NET monitors the rainfall and moisture availability conditions with the help of NOAA RFE2 data for deriving food security status in Africa. This paper highlights the efforts in using satellite estimated rainfall inputs to develop drought vulnerability models in the drought prone areas in Malawi. The satellite RFE2 based SPI corresponding to the critical tasseling and silking phases (in the months of January, February, and March) were statistically regressed with drought-induced yield losses at the district level. The analysis has shown that the drought conditions in February and early March lead to most damage to maize yields in this region. The district-wise vulnerabilities to drought were upscaled to obtain a regional maize vulnerability model for southern Malawi. The results would help in establishing an early monitoring mechanism for drought impact assessment, give the decision makers additional time to assess seasonal outcomes, and identify potential food-related hazards in Malawi.
TL;DR: In this paper, a GIS-based approach of multi-criteria analysis has been applied to incorporate the spatial factors in the index and the final output is enumerated for each land parcel (locally called mouza) where spatial variability is represented and shown on maps.
Abstract: The coastal areas of Bangladesh are disaster prone. Along with natural hazards there are persisting local hazards (e.g., salinity, river bank erosion) in the coastal parts. An approach to disaster reduction strategy, therefore, varies here highly with other areas and also with other disasters. Disaster risk that comes from hazard, vulnerability and local capacity can only be applied here if the assessment addresses socio-political aspects as well. In this study we identified prevailing hazards including the ones which are particularly important for the study area. All hazards are then assessed based on local vulnerability and coping capacity. Participatory appraisal has been taken into account to understand the level of devastation of the disasters. All these qualitative aspects are then categorized to fit in mathematical model of disaster risk estimation. A GIS based approach of multi-criteria analysis has been applied to incorporate the spatial factors in the index. Therefore, the final output is enumerated for each land parcel (locally called mouza) where spatial variability is represented and shown on maps. There are 11 identified hazards in the study area which have association with 11 social factors of vulnerability. The disaster risk index (DRI) also takes account of three geographic factors of vulnerability that are aggregated with the social factors to calculate a reliable DRI. The aggregated outcome is finally validated with historical data of disaster occurrences in the study area and found significant correspondence.
TL;DR: The GP-DRR 2013 will be the final biennial review process to take stock of progress in disaster risk reduction before the end of the Hyogo Framework for Action in 2015.
Abstract: The Fourth Session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction will be held in Geneva from 20 to 23rd May 2013. The GP-DRR 2013 will be the final biennial-review process to take stock of progress in disaster risk reduction before the end of the Hyogo Framework for Action in 2015. Not surprisingly, the period leading up to GP-DRR 2013 has been a period of extensive consultations across regions and countries as governments, civil society and the private sector discuss the design of a future DRR framework, or perhaps more radically, deliberate on whether disaster risk reduction should be incorporated within the post-2015 Millennium Development Goals rather than going it alone as a new “post-2015 HFA”. Notwithstanding the above, given the apparent consensus amongst governments that there should be a postHFA instrument, this editorial provides some thoughts and insights as to how a successor DRM framework could be designed and executed to support and connect with the daily realities, needs and priorities of vulnerable people. The viewpoints shared are primarily focused on the challenge of reducing losses due to disasters for lowincome households in developing countries who represent the vast majority of people most affected by disasters.
TL;DR: The Sentinel Asia initiative was established in 2005, as a collaboration between regional space agencies and disaster management agencies, applying remote sensing and Web-GIS technologies to assist disaster management in the Asia-Pacific region.
Abstract: The Sentinel Asia initiative was established in 2005, as a collaboration between regional space agencies and disaster management agencies, applying remote sensing and Web-GIS technologies to assist disaster management in the Asia-Pacific region. To date multiple national agencies of about 25 countries in the region have joined and benefited from the disaster support services provided by Sentinel Asia. This paper presents the vision and stepwise approach of establishment and continuous improvement of this regional program, as well as lessons learned throughout its implementation for 7 years from 2006 through 2012.
TL;DR: In this paper, a theoretical framework on learning from crisis management exercises is proposed, which focuses on necessary requirements and beneficial factors for the conceptual learning of individuals from discussion-based exercises.
Abstract: Crisis management exercises sometimes produce weak or vague learning results with very limited applicability. This paper addresses these problems by developing a theoretical framework on learning from crisis management exercises. The framework focuses on necessary requirements and beneficial factors for the conceptual learning of individuals from discussion-based exercises. The variation theory of learning was identified in the literature. According to this theory, a learner's capability stems from his or her ability to discern relevant situational aspects and the resulting potential for simultaneous awareness of and acting upon them. The central assumption of the framework is that learners are required to experience variation to achieve conceptual learning. The framework connects learning aspects of scenarios and discussions to the potential for improvement of the individual's capabilities. Based on the framework we suggest that exercise scenarios should be represented as a set of parameters, and that variation of the parameter set and the parameter values becomes the central theme of the exercise activity. Thinking in terms of parameters emphasizes variation and invariance before, during and after an exercise session, thus supporting learning. The proposed framework can be used to understand and manage discussion-based crisis exercises from a conceptual learning perspective.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the probability of flood disaster occurrence using the TRIP model for Japan (J-TRIP), a river routing scheme that provides a digital river network covering Japan.
Abstract: To address many of the problems faced in hydrological engineering planning, design, and management, a detailed knowledge of flood event characteristics, such as flood peak, volume, and duration is required Flood frequency analysis often focuses on flood peak values and provides a limited assessment of flood events To develop effective flood management and mitigation policies, estimation of the scale of potential disasters, incorporating the effects of social factors and climate conditions, is required along with quantitative measures of flood frequency The Japanese flood risk index, the flood disaster occurrence probability (FDOP), was established based on both natural and social factors It represents the expectation of damage in the case of a single flood occurrence, which is estimated by integrating a physical-based approach as a Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) model with Gumbel distribution metrics The resulting equations are used to predict potential flood damage based on gridded Japanese data for independent variables This approach is novel in that it targets floods based on units of events instead of a long-term trend Moreover, the FDOP can express relative potential flood risk while considering flood damage The significance of the present study is that both the hazard parameters (which contribute directly to flood occurrence) and vulnerability parameters (which reflect conditions of the region where the flood occurred), including residential and social characteristics, were shown quantitatively to affect flood damage This study examined the probability of flood disaster occurrence using the TRIP model for Japan (J-TRIP), a river routing scheme that provides a digital river network covering Japan The analysis was based on floods from 1976 to 2004 associated with flood inundation and sediment disasters Based on these results, we estimated the probability of flood damage officially reported for the whole region of Japan at a grid interval of 01 degrees The relationship between the magnitude of the rain hazard expressed as the probability of exceedance and the probability of flood damage officially reported was expressed as an exponential function by equalizing the whole region of Japan based on excess probability Moreover, the probabilities of flood damage occurrence according to social factors and changes in climate conditions were also examined The probability of flood damage occurrence is high, especially in regions of high population density The results also showed the effect of the dam maintenance ratio on extreme flooding and flood damage frequency The probability of flood damage occurrence was expected to increase during extreme weather events at the end of this century These findings provide a sound foundation for use in catchment water resources management
TL;DR: In this paper, a robust power law distribution with tail exponent μ ≈ 0.7 was found for 99 events with losses larger than $50,000 constructed by Sovacool, which suggests that the classification of different possible safety regimes is intrinsically unstable in the presence of cascades.
Abstract: From biotechnology to cyber-risks, most extreme technological risks cannot be reliably estimated from historical statistics. Therefore, engineers resort to predictive methods, such as fault/event trees in the framework of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), which consists in developing models to identify triggering events, potential accident scenarios, and estimate their severity and frequency. However, even the best safety analysis struggles to account for evolving risks resulting from inter-connected networks and cascade effects. Taking nuclear risks as an example, the predicted plant-specific distribution of losses is found to be significantly underestimated when compared with available empirical records. Using a novel database of 99 events with losses larger than $50 000 constructed by Sovacool, we document a robust power law distribution with tail exponent μ ≈ 0.7 . A simple cascade model suggests that the classification of the different possible safety regimes is intrinsically unstable in the presence of cascades. Additional continuous development and validation, making the best use of the experienced realized incidents, near misses and accidents, is urgently needed to address the existing known limitations of PSA when aiming at the estimation of total risks.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed an index for measuring farmer's satisfaction levels with crop insurance, which is based on the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI), having been adapted to the specific needs of this research.
Abstract: Crop insurance is a main tool for coping with different adversities in farming which is an innovation in rural areas. This study proposes an index for measuring farmer's satisfaction levels with crop insurance. The index is based on the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI), having been adapted to the specific needs of this research. Its validity was tested via a multistage, stratified random sample of farmers in Fars province in Iran. The measurement model indicates that the theoretical constructs have adequate reliability and validity while the structural equation model shows a good model fit. Furthermore, the model was found to be valid for two sub-groups of the sample, the formerly insured and the currently insured farmers. Perceived quality, perceived value and farmer's attitude toward crop insurance was found to have strongest effects on farmer's satisfaction levels. The study further confirms that customer satisfaction is the leading factor that determines farmers' loyalty. The results suggest that the proposed model can also be used on past insured clients and can give insights on which dimensions to focus most, eventually bringing them back into insurance arrangements.
TL;DR: In this article, a case-study of Eden district municipality in South Africa has been conducted to understand the legal instruments available for coordination within the government for disaster risk management, response and recovery.
Abstract: Post-disaster coordination is an essential aspect to achieve sustainable disaster recovery. However, to date, little attention has been paid to the subject of coordination in disaster recovery in comparison to response coordination. This study is an investigation into the factors affecting coordination for sustainable disaster recovery. It uses the case-study of Eden district Municipality in South Africa which has been continuously impacted by floods. The paper provides a background on disaster risk management, response and recovery in South Africa to understand the legal instruments available for coordination within the government. The study is structured around the theoretical themes of coordination within the public sector and sustainable disaster recovery. This paper also aims to make suggestions for coordinating sustainable disaster recovery. According to the respondents, the study highlights that (1) much attention paid to response oriented disaster risk management; (2) government departments working in independent silos; and (3) funding and political will are factors that affect coordination for sustainable disaster recovery. Though, the study is limited to a single case study, the results presented may be important considerations in other recovery settings.
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TL;DR: A semi-quantitative risk assessment model for primary health care service interruption during flood is developed in the context of Sudanese PHC and validated further to add value and confirm its application in a wider context.
Abstract: Primary health care (PHC) centers are very important to provide health facilities and services at the local level. The role of PHC centers becomes crucial during the flood and other natural disasters. PHC is an essential health care which is scientifically sound, socially acceptable, universally accessible through affordable cost, and geared towards self reliance, and based on practical methods and technology. This paper attempts to develop a semi-quantitative risk assessment model for primary health care service interruption during flood. The model is developed in the context of Sudanese PHC and validated further to add value and confirm its application in a wider context.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors introduce a relative loss ratio at the county level for the US, which is normalized by a measure of economic capacity calculated using county and state employment data and state Gross Domestic Product estimates and identify hazard regions of the US which consistently suffered heavy losses in comparison to their economic capacities.
Abstract: Local and regional hazard management initiatives undertake loss and impact studies to prioritize funds for future mitigation programs. However, hazard loss records typically include only direct damages to property and crops. More flexible measures of hazard losses and impacts are needed to allow comparisons across local places and different time frames, as one mechanism for prioritizing disaster aid and mitigation resources. This study introduces a relative loss ratio at the county level for the US. All losses from geophysical, meteorological, and hydrologic hazards are collected for the period 1980–2009. The loss data are normalized by a measure of economic capacity calculated using county and state employment data and state Gross Domestic Product estimates. A statistical regionalization technique is utilized to identify hazard regions of the US which consistently suffered heavy losses in comparison to their economic capacities. For the nation, the average relative loss ratio is 0.15% of the US GDP, suggesting that overall relative impact of disasters has not been that large. However, downscaling to regional or county levels shows a different result with the relative impact exceeding 10% of county GDP for many places, and more than 3% of regional GDP in the central US and the Gulf Coast. While the national capacity to absorb and recover from disasters is quite high, local capacities are often exceeded by singular large events or the cumulative impacts of smaller events, necessitating the influx of external aid to help these places recover from hazards.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed a hierarchical actors' network making science and technology transform to the actions of the public for the preparedness, mitigation, and management of earthquake disasters, which is still in need of careful design and construction.
Abstract: Earthquake hazard and risk in the China mainland exhibit multi-scale characteristics. Facing the complex challenge, several research and application projects have been undertaken since recent years. Lessons and experiences of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake contributed much to the launching and conducting of these projects. Understandings of the scientific problems and technical approaches taken in the mainstream studies in the China mainland have no significant difference from those in the international scientific communities, albeit using of some of the terminologies has distinct ‘cultural differences’. Several scientific products have been produced serving the society. These scientific products have unique academic merits due to the long-term persistence feature and the forward forecast nature, which are essential for the evaluation of the related technical performance and the falsification of the scientific ideas. Coping with the multi-scale challenge needs the hierarchical actors' network making science and technology transform to the actions of the public for the preparedness, mitigation, and management of earthquake disasters, which is still in need of careful design and construction.
TL;DR: Small but significant increases in pre-term birth and decreases in birth-weight are found in infants whose mothers were exposed to the fires late in the second trimester or during the third trimester in Victoria, Australia.
Abstract: Previous studies show that shorter gestation, lower birth-weight and fewer male births can result from maternal exposure to environmental disasters. We examined the 2009 Black Saturday fires in Victoria, Australia using a population cohort method. This study principally finds small but significant increases in pre-term birth (p=0.04) and decreases in birth-weight (p=0.001) in infants whose mothers were exposed to the fires late in the second trimester or during the third trimester. Because environmental disasters are an increasing threat and poor birth outcomes can have detrimental effects across the lifespan, understanding the relationship between environmental disasters and birth outcomes is important for future disaster policy.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focus on measures taken for vulnerable people in disaster risk management (DRM) laws in Japan, the Netherlands and the United States and focus on flood disasters in Japan and the USA.
Abstract: This paper focuses on measures taken for vulnerable people in Disaster Risk Management (DRM) laws in Japan, the Netherlands and the United States. As DRM laws were found to lack a definition of vulnerable people, an original working definition of vulnerable people in a community was defined. DRM laws and policies with a focus on flood disasters in Japan and the USA cover some groups of potentially vulnerable people who are supported during various phases of disaster management, such as elderly, children and people with disabilities. The basic disaster law in the Netherlands mentions ‘not self-reliant people’ during the response phase, and leaves further details to the regional safety plans. All countries lack clearly defined characteristics in the laws themselves as to who may be categorized among the various groups of potentially vulnerable people. Furthermore, there is little to no anticipation of expected increases in the amounts of vulnerable people. The support for vulnerable people in DRM laws has not been quantified on a global scale, even though the Hyogo Framework for Action called for the development of measurement tools in 2005. Further research should aim at developing tools with which to quantify the support of vulnerable people in DRM laws.