Showing papers in "Journal of Economic Surveys in 2008"

Some practical guidance for the implementation of propensity score matching

Abstract: Propensity score matching (PSM) has become a popular approach to estimate causal treatment effects. It is widely applied when evaluating labour market policies, but empirical examples can be found in very diverse fields of study. Once the researcher has decided to use PSM, he is confronted with a lot of questions regarding its implementation. To begin with, a first decision has to be made concerning the estimation of the propensity score. Following that one has to decide which matching algorithm to choose and determine the region of common support. Subsequently, the matching quality has to be assessed and treatment effects and their standard errors have to be estimated. Furthermore, questions like 'what to do if there is choice-based sampling?' or 'when to measure effects?' can be important in empirical studies. Finally, one might also want to test the sensitivity of estimated treatment effects with respect to unobserved heterogeneity or failure of the common support condition. Each implementation step involves a lot of decisions and different approaches can be thought of. The aim of this paper is to discuss these implementation issues and give some guidance to researchers who want to use PSM for evaluation purposes.

Education and entrepreneurship selection and performance: a review of the empirical literature

Abstract: This paper provides a review of empirical studies into the impact of formal schooling on entrepreneurship selection and performance in industrial countries. We describe the main effects found in the literature, we explain the variance in results across almost a hundred studies, and we put the empirical results in the context of related economic theory and the much further developed literature in labor economics (studying the rate of return to education among wage employees). Five main conclusions result from this meta-analysis. First, the impact of education on selection into entrepreneurship is insignificant. Second, the effect of education on performance is positive and significant. Third, the return to a marginal year of schooling is 6.1% for an entrepreneur. Fourth, the effect of education on earnings is smaller for entrepreneurs than for employees in Europe, but larger in the USA. Fifth, the returns to schooling in entrepreneurship are higher in the USA than in Europe, higher for females than for males, and lower for non-whites or immigrants. In conclusion, we offer a number of suggestions to move the research frontier in this area of inquiry. The entrepreneurship literature on education can benefit from the technical sophistication used to estimate the returns to schooling for employees.

A survey of recent developments in the literature of finance and growth

Abstract: This paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of financial development and economic growth. The survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of financial development in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables. Although the positive role of finance on growth has become a stylized fact, there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies. Several key issues unresolved in the literature are highlighted. The paper also points to several directions for future research.

Will business cycles in the euro area converge? a critical survey of empirical research

Abstract: This survey of business cycle synchronization in the European monetary union focuses on two issues: have business cycles become more similar, and which factors drive business cycle synchronization. We conclude that business cycles in the euro area have gone through periods of both convergence and divergence. Still, there is quite some evidence that during the 1990s business cycle synchronization in the euro area has increased. Higher trade intensity is found to lead to more synchronization, but the point estimates vary widely. The evidence for other factors affecting business cycle synchronization is very mixed.

An empirical survey of residential water demand modelling

Abstract: The increased reliance on demand-side management policies as an urban water consumption management tool has stimulated considerable debate among economists, water utility managers, regulators, consumer interest groups and policymakers. In turn, this has fostered an increasing volume of literature aimed at providing best-practice estimates of price and income elasticities, quantifying the impact of non-price water restrictions and gauging the impact of non-discretionary environmental factors affecting residential water demand. This paper provides a synoptic survey of empirical residential water demand analyses conducted in the last 25 years. Both model specification and estimation and the outcomes of the analyses are discussed.

Combining revealed and stated preference data to estimate the nonmarket value of ecological services: an assessment of the state of the science

Abstract: This paper reviews the marketing, transportation and environmental economics literature on the joint estimation of revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data. The RP and SP approaches are first described with a focus on the strengths and weaknesses of each. Recognizing these strengths and weaknesses, the potential gains from combining data are described. A classification system for combined data that emphasizes the type of data combination and the econometric models used is proposed. A methodological review of the literature is pursued based on this classification system. Examples from the environmental economics literature are highlighted. A discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of each type of jointly estimated model is then presented. Suggestions for future research, in particular opportunities for application of these models to environmental quality valuation, are presented.

Temporal aggregation of univariate and multivariate time series models: a survey

Abstract: We present a unified and up-to-date overview of temporal aggregation techniques for univariate and multivariate time series models explaining in detail, although intuitively, the technical machinery behind the results. Some empirical applications illustrate the main issues.

How to measure labour market effects of immigration: a review

Abstract: This paper surveys available empirical evidence on labour market effects of immigration. Many different approaches have been used already to try to find out whether immigration hurts the labour market opportunities of natives. No doubt new approaches will follow in the future as globalization will keep the migration issue on the agenda. This literature review discusses the different approaches concentrating on both the methodology and the results. At the end, it tries to summarize available evidence.

Productivity and structural change: a review of the literature

Abstract: This paper is a survey of the existing research on structural change at various levels of aggregation with a special focus on the relation to productivity and technological change. The exposition covers the research concerning the development of the three main sectors of the private economy, multisector growth models and recent evolutionary theories of structural change. Empirical studies of the reallocation of market or sector shares as a result of differential productivity developments are also discussed. The synthesis emphasizes the crucial interaction of supply- and demand-side forces in shaping structural change.

Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models in Finance: a Survey of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature

Abstract: This paper provides an up-to-date survey of the main theoretical developments in autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) modeling and empirical studies using financial data. First, we discuss the properties of the standard ACD specification and its extensions, existing diagnostic tests, and joint models for the arrival times of events and some market characteristics. Then, we present the empirical applications of ACD models to different types of events, and identify possible directions for future research.

Purchasing power parity for developing and developed countries. what can we learn from non‐stationary panel data models?

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to apply recently developed panel cointegration techniques proposed by Pedroni (1999, 2004) and generalized by Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2006) to examine the robustness of the PPP concept for a sample of 80 developed and developing countries. We find that strong PPP is verified for OECD countries and weak PPP for MENA countries. However in African, Asian, Latin American and Central and Eastern European countries, PPP does not seem relevant to characterize the long-run behavior of the real exchange rate. Further investigations indicate that the nature of the exchange rate regime doesn't condition the validity of PPP which is more easily accepted in countries with high than low inflation.

Explaining rising inequality: skill‐biased technical change and north–south trade

Abstract: We review the ‘skill-biased technological change (SBTC) versus North–South trade (NST)’ debate in order to explain widening wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. The traditional explanations based on exogenous SBTC and on the North–South Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson approach, as well as the early estimates that diagnosed a clear prevalence of the former, are firstly exposed and discussed. A presentation is then made of the recent theoretical literature that endogenizes SBTC, introduces new channels of impacts from NST, and combines both explanations. Finally, the current estimates show that (i) both explanations are relevant, (ii) their impacts differ according to industries and countries, (iii) outsourcing is the main vector of impact from NST and (iv) SBTC and NST interact.

A survey of the effects of the minimum wage on prices

Abstract: It is well established in the literature that minimum wage increases compress the wage distribution. Firms respond to these higher labour costs by reducing employment, reducing profits, or raising prices. While there are hundreds of studies on the employment effect of the minimum wage, there are merely a handful of studies on its profit effects, and only a couple of dozen studies on its price effects. Furthermore, a comprehensive survey on minimum wage price effects is not available in the literature. Given the policy relevance of this neglected issue, in this paper we summarize and critically compare the available evidence on the effects of minimum wages on prices.

The economic causes of obesity: a survey

Abstract: Obesity rates have increased dramatically over the last 30 years. Rising obesity has developed into a considerable worldwide public health problem with significant economic and social consequences. Accordingly, obesity has become a subject of economic research. This paper provides a broad survey of the recent and growing economic literature on the causes of obesity. The literature, both theoretical and empirical, overall aims to explain the rising obesity trend and to identify the factors that contribute to obesity. Also surveyed are non-economic causes and consequences of obesity and the interconnection with economic influences. An understanding of the causes of obesity allows policies to be considered that might stem the global increase in obesity.

Foreign exchange rate expectations: survey and synthesis

Abstract: this paper reviews the empirical literature on foreign exchange rate expectations. Prominent issues are the forward premium puzzle, expectations formation in financial markets, heterogeneity of expectations, market microstructure, time-varying risk premiums and forecast performance. Although much has been learned in each field, this survey highlights the areas of research in which our understanding of the mechanism of exchange rate expectations is still incomplete. Our survey suggests that both irrational expectations and time-varying risk premiums account for the forward discount anomaly, that long-term expectations reverse towards their long-run equilibrium values and that heterogeneous behaviour of market participants has the potential of explaining some of the empirical regularities in the international finance literature.

Why have UK disability benefit rolls grown so much

Abstract: Over the last 30 years many countries – including the UK – have seen a dramatic rise in the share of the working age population receiving sickness and disability benefits (hereafter disability benefits). This is despite health levels that are generally thought to be slowly improving. This paper describes the time path of UK disability benefit rolls and explores the existing UK literature together with literature from the USA in search of potential explanations for it. Since the early 1990s, despite a number of detailed descriptive studies, surprisingly little attention has been paid to quantifying the importance of the different factors believed to be driving the UK benefit roll growth. This is all the more surprising given the continued growth and the level of policy attention recently and currently devoted to disability benefits in the UK.

Measuring protection: mission impossible?

Abstract: There seems to be some confusion between ‘openness’ and ‘protection’ measures in the international trade literature. The aim of this paper is to bring together the state of the art in quantifying trade policy measures and, for this reason, we focus on the extent of the protection granted by policies rather than on the degree of openness of the economy. Given the considerable amount of literature that deals with these issues, we will limit our review as follows. On the one hand, we focus on trade policies implemented at the border and therefore do not consider all the other possible public interventions influencing trade flows. On the other hand, we only take into account indexes that explicitly adopt a metric expressed in a ‘scalar aggregate’ (tariff- and quota-equivalent measures, or an index in a closed interval). We distinguish between indexes that aggregate across products (same barrier for more products) and indexes that aggregate across instruments (more barriers for the same product). Finally, in order to classify the large number of indexes covered in our review, we propose a typology based on three categories: incidence, outcome and equivalence.

Mind the gap: unemployment in the new eu regions

Abstract: The paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on regional unemployment during transition in Central and Eastern Europe. The focus is on optimal speed of transition (OST) models and on comparison of them with the neo-classical tradition. In the typical neo-classical models, spatial differences essentially arise as a consequence of supply side constraints and institutional rigidities. Slow-growth, high-unemployment regions are those with backward economic structures and constraints on factors mobility contribute to making differences persistent. However, such explanations leave the question unanswered of how unemployment differences arise in the first place. Economic transition provides an excellent testing ground to answer this question. Pre-figuring an empirical law, the OST literature finds that the high degree of labour turnover of high unemployment regions is associated with a high rate of industrial restructuring and, consequently, that low unemployment may be achieved by implementing transition more gradually. Moreover, international trade, foreign direct investment and various agglomeration factors help explain the success of capital cities compared to peripheral towns and rural areas in achieving low unemployment. The evidence of the empirical literature on supply side factors suggests that wage flexibility in Central and Eastern Europe is not lower than in other EU countries, while labour mobility seems to reinforce rather than change the spatial pattern of unemployment. Copyright 2008 The Author Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Protection of property rights and growth as political equilibria

Abstract: This paper presents a survey of the literature on property rights and economic growth. Different theoretical mechanisms that relate property rights to economic development are discussed. Lack of protection of property rights can result in slow economic growth through different channels: expropriation of private wealth, corruption of civil servants, excessive taxation and barriers to adoption of new technologies. The origins of property rights are also considered. Different theories are illustrated but more attention is paid to the ‘social conflict view’ and its success and limitations. The second part of the paper illustrates relevant empirical works on property rights and growth.

Privatization and efficiency: from principals and agents to political economy

Abstract: ad i Pavia Abstract. We survey the theoretical literature on privatization and efficiency by tracing its evolution from the applications of agency theory to recent contributions in the field of political economy. The former extend the theory of regulation with incomplete information to address privatization issues, comparing state-owned enterprises with private regulated firms. The benefits of privatization may derive either from the constraints it places on malevolent agents or from the impossibility of commitment by a benevolent government because of incomplete contracts. Contributions dealing with political economy issues separate privatization from restructuring decisions. They either explore bargaining between managers and politicians or analyse the impact of privatization shaped by political preferences on efficiency. The theoretical results regarding the relation between privatization and efficiency do not lead to any definitive conclusion. Privatization may increase productive efficiency when restructuring takes place whereas its effects on allocative efficiency still remain uncertain.

Social security and retirement decision: A positive and normative approach

Abstract: Social insurance for the elderly is judged responsible for the widely observed trend towards early retirement. In a world of laissez-faire or in a first-best setting, there would be no such trend. However, when first-best instruments are not available, because health and productivity are not observable, the optimal social insurance policy may imply a distortion on the retirement decision. The main point we make is that while there is no doubt that retirement systems induce an excessive bias towards early in many countries, a complete elimination of this bias (i.e., a switch to an actuarially fair system) is not the right answer. This is so and for two reasons. First, some distortions are secondbest optimal. This is the normative argument. Second, and on the positive side, the elimination of the bias might be problematic from a political perspective. Depending on the political process, it may either not be feasible or alternatively it may tend to undermine the political support for the pension system itself.

Should we worry about the failure of the hotelling rule

Abstract: The continuing dependence of the global economy on fossil fuels is worrying because it imposes limits on growth due to the non-renewable nature of these resources and also contributes to global climate change. Resource optimists believe that this is no reason to worry, because the economy will always find a way to overcome these constraints. Their arguments, however, require that resource prices reflect the scarcity of non-renewable resources, which implies that they must obey the Hotelling rule. Empirical analyses, however, show that the Hotelling rule does not hold in reality, which raises the question: does the failure of the Hotelling rule imply that social optimality is not achieved? This paper argues that the answer depends on the reason for the failure. If extraction and exploration costs, or technological progress in these activities, are the reasons for the failure, a market failure is not implied, and optimality may still be achieved. But if the Hotelling rule fails due to uncertain property rights or strategic interaction, the market will surely fail to provide an optimal solution. A market failure is likely to speed up resource consumption compared to the social optimum.

The underpinnings of country risk assessment

Abstract: This paper surveys the history and current status of country risk assessment. The motivation is to understand why it is that country risk assessors have such a poor track record in anticipating the onset of financial crises. The development of the field reflects changes in the composition of international capital flows. These changes have confounded a definition of country risk, especially if a definition is centered on a particular event. It is then argued that the field has reached an impasse, and this impasse is related to the methods of abstraction and the current crisis of vision within the science of economics. This crisis of vision, as it pertains to theories of financial crises, has led to increased reliance on quantitative methods in the field of country risk. The paper concludes by proposing a new direction for the field, the first step towards which is to recognize that the object of country risk assessment is not to monitor for a particular event or symptom of financial crisis, but, rather, to monitor for a particular state of the economy.

Trade and factor flows in a diverse eu: what lessons for the eastern enlargement(s)?

Abstract: This paper reviews the neoclassical and new economic geography (NEG) theoretical frameworks used to analyse the effects of integration on trade and factor flows, and the empirical work carried out within those theoretical frameworks for the European case. The European Union (EU) is of particular interest because it is illustrative of the tensions between deepening of the integration process and widening membership: whereas deepening requires homogeneity, widening has made the EU increasingly diverse. The orthodox framework saw trade and factor flows as substitutes, thus separating their analysis, and was mainly concerned with efficiency issues of trade integration. The NEG framework saw trade and factor flows as complements, and analysed them jointly, looking mainly at distribution issues such as disparities in industry location and wages arising from a single market for goods and factors. The main lesson for the Eastern enlargement(s) is that integration in its various forms leads to an uneven distribution of gains across member countries when these have very diverse economic structures. Copyright 2008 The Author. Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Entrepreneurs' location choice and public policies: a survey of the new economic geography

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to survey what has been done by the New Economic Geography (NEG) on a regional scale in order to answer the three following questions: What are the predictions of the NEG concerning the future of regions in the triad? Are these predictions robust? What can be the optimal public policy on a regional and national scale in a world characterized by agglomeration, trade liberalization and mobility of entrepreneurs? In surveying the most recent contributions in this area, the paper sheds light on several shortcomings of the NEG literature in order to point out new directions for further research, with particular reference to studies concerning welfare and tax competition.

A theoretical and practical perspective on the equity risk premium

Abstract: In historical perspective, equity returns have been higher than interest rates but have also varied a good deal more. However, the average excess return has been larger than what could be expected based on classical equilibrium theory: the equity risk premium (ERP) puzzle. This paper has two objectives. First, the paper presents a comprehensive overview of the vast literature developed aimed at adjusting theory and testing the robustness of the puzzle. Here we will show that the failure of theory to link asset prices to economics is mostly quantitative by nature and not qualitative (anymore). Second, beyond providing a survey of theory, we aim for a relevant practical angle as well. Our main contribution is that we spend time on why returns have been higher than investors reasonably could have expected. We present evidence that forecasts of equity returns can be enhanced by valuation models: low valuation levels (low price-to-earnings ratios) portend high subsequent returns. While conventional wisdom (several years ago) was to use historical returns to forecast future returns, a growing consensus now recognizes that the predictive power of valuation ratios is preferred. Finally we provide some practical implications based on this predictability. While the ERP is essentially a long-term issue, the likelihood of a lower risk premium increases risk for many and means that short-term volatility might not be neglected.

Corporate capital structure and how soft budget constraints may affect it

Abstract: This survey paper examines existing theories of capital structure and related empirical tests with the aim to derive theoretical as well empirically testable predictions about the implications of the soft budget constraint for corporate capital structure. We show that the soft budget constraint syndrome is relevant for a variety of institutional environments, from central planning to capitalist economic systems, and consider features of company financing patterns in various institutional contexts. Special attention is paid to emerging and transition economies where, with the development of financial markets, companies reduce their financial dependence on the state and begin to borrow from a variety of sources. However, due to the persistence of soft budget constraints, corporate capital structure in transition and emerging economies may still deviate significantly from the capital structure of companies operating under hard budget constraints.

Incorporating financing-related determinants of value in the discounted cash flow model

Abstract: The paper discusses how some of the main types of interaction between financing and value can be incorporated in the discounted cash flow model of valuation, including effects arising from taxes, transactions costs, disclosure, information asymmetry and agency problems. It explains whether a given effect should appear in a project's cash flows, in its cost of capital or as an upfront adjustment to value. Most of the effects imply that the principle of value additivity does not hold.