Showing papers in "Population Research and Policy Review in 2012"

‘Agricultural Poverty’ and the Expansion of Artisanal Mining in Sub-Saharan Africa: Experiences from Southwest Mali and Southeast Ghana

Abstract: Why do people engage in artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM)—labour-intensive mineral extraction and processing activity—across sub-Saharan Africa? This paper argues that ‘agricultural poverty’, or hardship induced by an over-dependency on farming for survival, has fuelled the recent rapid expansion of ASM operations throughout the region The diminished viability of smallholder farming in an era of globalization and overreliance on rain-fed crop production restricted by seasonality has led hundreds of thousands of rural African families to ‘branch out’ into ASM, a move made to secure supplementary incomes Experiences from Komana West in Southwest Mali and East Akim District in Southeast Ghana are drawn upon to illustrate how a movement into the ASM economy has impacted farm families, economically, in many rural stretches of sub-Saharan Africa

Migration and Health Selectivity in the Context of Internal Migration in China, 1997–2009

Abstract: Using data from the 1997–2009 waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey, we examine the ‘healthy migrant hypothesis’ in a setting where internal migrants face significant barriers to movement. Going beyond much of the existing literature in the Chinese context, we use an appropriate comparison between migrants and non-migrants at origin, using detailed health measures, and data spanning a wider geographic and temporal extent than had been previously considered. Consistent with research from both international migration contexts and other internal migration settings, we find that migrants are positively selected on the basis of health, although the relationship between health and migration diminishes across time. The strongest evidence for health selection comes from a subjective self-reported health measure, although we also find evidence for selection against those experiencing acute health conditions. We speculate that the across-time differentiation may be caused by the rapid social, economic and policy changes in China’s economic reform era. Thus, we suggest that migration scholars should consider the changing macro context when theorizing about selection factors.

Going Back Home? Changing Demography and Geography of Mexican Return Migration

Abstract: Return migration has been a constant feature of Mexico–US migration patterns, but its characteristics have changed sharply with time. We use the Mexican censuses and counts of 1995, 2000, 2010, and the complete set of individual and household records of the 2005 Population Count to explore the demographic characteristics of returnees in the context of tighter border control and rising levels of forced return migration. Involuntary and therefore unplanned return is likely to mean greater difficulties of incorporation into the community of origin. The study of the effects of the militarization of the US–Mexico border on migration patterns has focused on the US side. We contribute to this literature by focusing on the Mexican side. We consider the intensity and type of previous migration to the US as compared to current return migration, and State of origin and destination. Our data suggest that particularly attractive destinations for returnees are border cities, prosperous communities and growing metropolitan areas. Findings suggest changes in the demographic composition and geographic distribution of returnees. The discordance between the patterns of outmigration and return is a telling indicator of changes in the overall migration relationship between Mexico and the US. The patterns for 2005 are also observed in 2010 even if the absolute number of inter-censal returnees increased threefold over the period. Finally, we argue that focusing on destinations of return instead of areas of emigration will contribute to a more comprehensive understanding on the nature of future return migration to Mexico and its policy implications.

Women's Agency and the Quality of Family Relationships in India.

Abstract: The role of family context in determining women's agency has been addressed through kinship patterns, household structure, and domestic violence. This study suggests that another aspect of family context - family relationship quality - can also influence women's agency. Data from the Women's Reproductive Histories Survey, collected in Madhya Pradesh, India, are used to examine whether family relationship quality is a determinant of women's agency. Results show that women with higher quality relationships with husbands and parents-in-law do have greater agency. Further, family relationship quality is just as influential as other well known determinants of agency, including education and employment.

Reconciling Work, Family and Child Outcomes: What Implications for Family Support Policies?

Abstract: This paper discusses the potential of family policies to reconcile the multiple objectives that they are expected to serve, over and above their role in offsetting the economic cost of children. We start by emphasizing the need to consider the multiple challenges that family policies in EU- and OECD-countries have to address through a broadening of the standard economic approach to the cost of children. Policies indeed aim to reduce the "direct" monetary cost of raising children, but they also aim to minimise the indirect cost arising from the incidence of children on the parents' work-life balance and on the aggregate level of employment. Moreover, motives for policy intervention such as concerns about child development, gender equity or aggregate fertility levels are not fully captured by cost measurements. We thus analyse how, and to what extent, family policies can successfully reconcile these multidimensional objectives. We offer a holistic approach, pointing out that a coherent family policy mix supporting working parents with preschool children is the only way to reconcile or limit the conflicts between work, family and child outcomes. Three main dichotomies are identified to explain cross-country differences in family policy packages: the emphasis on poverty alleviation; the supposed antagonism between fertility and female employment; and the potential conflict between this latter and child development. Ways to reconcile these objectives and to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of family policies are further discussed.

Investigating the Life Situations and Development of Teenage Mothers’ Children: Evidence from the ECLS-B

Abstract: The Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Birth Cohort of 2001 represents a unique opportunity to examine the life situations of teenage mothers and their young children in a nationally representative sample. Descriptive and multivariate regression analyses compare teenage mothers and their children to older mothers and their children, examine variation among teenage mothers and their children, and estimate associations between household structures and mothers' work and school involvement at age 2 and children's health and development at age 4½. Results show that compared to children of mothers who never gave birth as teens, teenage mothers' children experience strong socioeconomic disadvantages, and their home environments have some greater risks. Their mothers' parenting behaviors are not rated as favorably, and many measures of their health and development at age 2 are compromised. However, many of these parenting and developmental disparities are explained by teenage mothers' low levels of current socioeconomic status. At least in some domains, teenage mothers' involvement in school and paid work is associated with more favorable child outcomes at age 4½, and living with a single mother and other adults predicts more negative outcomes. Many everyday experiences that are associated with disadvantaged outcomes are quite prevalent among teenage mothers' children, identifying useful targets for policy interventions. These findings suggest that effective social programs implemented in early life may have an opportunity to reduce the early developmental disadvantages of many children of teenage mothers.

The Effect of Urbanization on China’s Fertility

Abstract: The relationship between urbanization and fertility decline is known to be inverse in developed countries. However, the nature of this relationship in developing countries that already have relatively low fertilities is not well-understood. This study aims to illustrate how much urbanization contributed to China’s fertility decline between 1982 and 2008 and forecasts how much it can contribute to future reductions in fertility. The study examines changes in the total fertility rate (TFR) at both the national and provincial levels, given regional differences in the urbanization rate. The results show that changes in rural fertility behavior accounted for most of the decline in the national TFR between 1982 and 2008. This finding suggests that official birth control policies were instrumental in curbing China’s population growth. However, urbanization was responsible for about 22% of the decrease in TFR during this period, and its effect was especially important during the latter years (2001–2008). In most provinces, urbanization associated with a decline in provincial-level fertility. The forecasts indicate that urbanization will become the primary factor behind future declines in national fertility. Given the negative effect of urbanization on the TFR, it is possible to relax the one-child policy without having adverse implications for population growth.

An Integrated Analysis of Migration and Remittances: Modeling Migration as a Mechanism for Selection

Abstract: Prior work has modeled individuals’ migration and remittance behavior separately, and reported mixed empirical support for various remittance motivations. This study offers an integrated approach, and considers migration as a mechanism for selection in a censored probit model of remittance behavior. This approach leads to different conclusions about the determinants of remittance behavior in the Thai internal migration setting. To the extent that these determinants capture different remittance motivations, as prior research has presumed, the analysis also provides varying support for these motivations. These results suggest that migration and remittance behavior are interrelated, and it is crucial for an analysis of remittance behavior to control for the selectivity of migration.

Are Hispanic Women Happier About Unintended Births

Abstract: Reducing unintended pregnancies—particularly among Hispanic and Black women, who have relatively high rates—is a key public health goal in the United States. However, descriptive literature has suggested that Hispanic women are happier about these pregnancies compared with White and Black women, which could mean that there is variation across groups in the consequences of the resulting births. The purpose of this study was to examine variations in happiness about unintended births by race–ethnicity and to assess possible explanations for these differences. Using data from the National Survey of Family Growth (N = 1,462 births) I find that Hispanic women report being happier about unintended births compared with White and Black women. Higher happiness among Hispanics was particularly pronounced among a subgroup of women: those who were foreign-born and very religious. Overall, results confirm previous findings that intention status alone is incomplete for capturing pregnancy experiences. Happiness offers complementary information that is important when making comparisons by race–ethnicity and nativity.

“The Luggage that isn’t Theirs is Too Heavy…”:Understandings of Orphan Disadvantage in Lesotho

Abstract: In Southern Africa, high adult HIV prevalence has fueled concern about the welfare of children losing parents to the epidemic. A growing body of evidence indicates that parental, particularly maternal, death is negatively associated with child outcomes. However, a better understanding of the mechanisms is needed. In addition, the way orphan disadvantage and the mechanisms giving rise to it are understood on the ground is essential for the successful translation of research into policies and programs. This study employs data from 89 in-depth interviews with caregivers and key informants in Lesotho, a setting where approximately one-quarter of adults is infected with HIV, to elaborate understandings of orphan disadvantage. Our analysis focuses on two questions: (i) Do local actors perceive orphans to be disadvantaged compared to non-orphans, and if so, in what ways; and (ii) How do they explain orphans’ differential disadvantage? Analyses suggest that orphans were widely perceived to be disadvantaged; respondents described this disadvantage in material as well as affective domains. Thematic analyses reveal five broad categories of explanation: poverty, love and kin connection, caregiver character, perceptions of orphans, and community norms related to orphan care. These results underscore the need for research and policy to address (i) multiple types of disadvantage, including deficits in kindness and attention; and (ii) the social embeddedness of disadvantage, recognizing that poverty, kinship, and community interact with individual attributes to shape caregiving relationships and child experiences. The findings suggest limited success for programs and policies that do not address the emotional needs of children, or that focus on child or caregiver support to the exclusion of community outreach.

The Environmental Impact of Immigration: An Analysis of the Effects of Immigrant Concentration on Air Pollution Levels

Abstract: Despite growing interest in the impact of immigration on U.S. society, research has rarely examined the effects of immigration flows on the natural environment. The current study addresses this gap in research using data on 183 Metropolitan Statistical Areas drawn from the Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to empirically assess the relationships between contemporary immigration and seven measures of air pollution. In doing so, we seek to (1) broaden knowledge about the social consequences of immigration to include its potential effects on the environment, (2) address competing theoretical perspectives about immigration-environment relationships (i.e., population pressure/social disorganization versus ecological footprint/community resource perspectives), and (3) extend knowledge about the predictors and sources of environmental harm within local communities. In contrast to popular opinion and population pressure positions, our research indicates that immigration does not contribute to local air pollution levels across any of the seven pollution measures examined.

Has Divorce Become a Pro-Natal Force in Europe at the Turn of the 21st Century?

Abstract: Since the 1990s, the correlation between divorce and total fertility has turned positive on the country level in Europe This paper investigates whether this positive association also holds on the individual level To this end, it uses micro-level data from the third round of the European Social Survey about 23 countries We introduce location-scale models to analyze both the average number of children and the dispersion around this number Particular attention goes to the role played by repartnering We find that a past divorce experience is generally negatively associated with the number of children ever born for both men and women, even for people who are in a new post-divorce union So, contrary to what is suggested by aggregate level correlations, divorce has not become a pro-natal force in Europe The only exception may be remarried men, who are somewhat more likely to have three or more children in our sample Whereas the difference in average number of children born between divorced and never divorced people is small, divorce is associated with much greater heterogeneity in childbearing

Union Transitions Following the Birth of a Child to Cohabiting Parents

Abstract: Despite a growing interest in the family trajectories of unmarried women, there has been limited research on union transitions among cohabiting parents. Using data from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth, we examined how family complexity (including relationship and fertility histories), as well as characteristics of the union and birth, were associated with transitions to marriage or to separation among 1,105 women who had a birth in a cohabiting relationship. Cohabiting parents had complex relationship and fertility histories, which were tied to union transitions. Having a previous nonmarital birth was associated with a lower relative risk of marriage and a greater risk of separation. In contrast, a prior marriage or marital birth was linked to union stability (getting married or remaining cohabiting). Characteristics of the union and birth were also important. Important racial/ethnic differences emerged in the analyses. Black parents had the most complex family histories and the lowest relative risk of transitioning to marriage. Stable cohabitations were more common among Hispanic mothers, and measures of family complexity were particularly important to their relative risk of marriage. White mothers who began cohabiting after conception were the most likely to marry, suggesting that “shot-gun cohabitations” serve as a stepping-stone to marriage.

A Multistate Life Table Analysis of Union Regimes in the United States: Trends and Racial Differentials, 1970-2002

Abstract: We estimate trends and racial differentials in marriage, cohabitation, union formation and dissolution (union regimes) for the period 1970–2002 in the United States. These estimates are based on an innovative application of multistate life table analysis to pooled survey data. Our analysis demonstrates (1) a dramatic increase in the lifetime proportions of transitions from never-married, divorced or widowed to cohabiting; (2) a substantial decrease in the stability of cohabiting unions; (3) a dramatic increase in mean ages at cohabiting after divorce and widowhood; (4) a substantial decrease in direct transition from never-married to married; (5) a significant decrease in the overall lifetime proportion of ever marrying and re-marrying in the 1970s to 1980s but a relatively stable pattern in the 1990s to 2000–2002; and (6) a substantial decrease in the lifetime proportion of transition from cohabiting to marriage. We also present, for the first time, comparable evidence on differentials in union regimes between four racial groups.

The Changing Pattern of Educational Differentials in Divorce in the Context of Gender Egalitarianization: The Case of Taiwan

Abstract: Regarding educational differentials in divorce, similar trends have been reported across countries. Some report increasing educational differentials, while others identify an educational crossover pattern. The commonality is that education seems to play a role of stabilizing marriage more than ever before. Using data from the Women’s Marriage, Fertility, and Employment Survey, this study investigates the case of Taiwan by portraying the changing pattern of women’s educational differentials in divorce. There are three major findings. First, among previous marriage cohorts, women with relatively higher levels of formal education are significantly more likely to divorce. Second, the marital-dissolution rates for less educated women are rising faster than the corresponding rates for women with more education. Third, this trend does not stop at the catch-up point and eventually leads to a reversal in the association between education and divorce from positive to negative. In short, such educational differentials in divorce vary dramatically across marriage cohorts. A pattern of educational crossover in divorce has been displayed during the rapid social change in Taiwan. Other than William Goode’s argument raised a half-century ago, the marriage model transformation from specialization toward symmetry in the context of gender egalitarianization has to be taken into consideration in order to obtain a full understanding of the phenomenon.

Negotiating Development Prescriptions: The Case of Population Policy in Nigeria

Abstract: Countries of the global south must constantly respond to development prescriptions from donor organizations. In this paper, I develop a spectrum of response to these prescriptions that applies to key actors at the country level—national leaders, technocratic elites, and social groups—and ranges from acceptance to negotiation to rejection. The interplay of these responses in conjunction with the social, economic, and political context drives the overall response to, and impact of, development prescriptions. To illustrate this process I use the case of population policy in Nigeria, where a technocratic elite led by a charismatic minister of health accepted the policy largely on its own merits; national leaders negotiated the policy so it facilitated state-society relations, promoted nationalism, deflected blame for economic woes, and represented commitment to political restructuring; and the representatives of social groups rejected the policy. Donor pressure served as a backdrop to the whole process. Parsing country responses to development prescriptions in this manner explains why Nigeria, a country with pronatalist citizens and in which population was highly politicized, adopted a policy aiming to limit fertility. It also demonstrates that different actors within countries of the global south use development prescriptions as opportunities to achieve locally important goals. To make these arguments, I draw on rich primary data from key informants and Nigerian government documents. Ultimately, the rejection of the policy by women’s organizations and religious groups, combined with financial duress, political chaos, and continued high desired fertility, prevented the policy from strongly influencing contraceptive provision or fertility.

An Evaluation of Persons per Household (PPH) Estimates Generated by the American Community Survey: A Demographic Perspective

Abstract: The American Community Survey (ACS) is a U.S. Census Bureau product designed to provide accurate and timely demographic and economic indicators on an annual basis for both large and small geographic areas within the United States. Operational plans call for ACS to serve not only as a substitute for the decennial census long-form, but as a means of providing annual data at the national, state, county, and subcounty levels. In addition to being highly ambitious, this approach represents a major change in how data are collected and interpreted. Two of the major questions facing the ACS are its functionality and usability. This paper explores the latter of these two questions by examining “persons per household (PPH),” a variable of high interest to demographers and others preparing regular post-censal population estimates. The data used in this exploration are taken from 18 of the counties that formed the set of 1999 ACS test sites. The examination proceeds by first comparing 1-year ACS PPH estimates to Census 2010 PPH values along with extrapolated estimates generated using a geometric model based on PPH change between the 1990 and 2000 census counts. Both sets of estimates are then compared to annual 2001–2009 PPH interpolated estimates generated by a geometric model based on PPH from the 2000 census to the 2010 census. The ACS PPH estimates represent what could be called the “statistical perspective” because variations in the estimates of specific variables over time and space are viewed largely by statisticians with an eye toward sample error. The model-based PPH estimates represent a “demographic perspective” because PPH estimates are largely viewed by demographers as varying systematically and changing relatively slowly over time, an orientation stemming from theory and empirical evidence that PPH estimates respond to demographic and related determinants. The comparisons suggest that the ACS PPH estimates exhibit too much “noisy” variation for a given area over time to be usable by demographers and others preparing post-censal population estimates. These findings should be confirmed through further analysis and suggestions are provided for the directions this research could take. We conclude by noting that the statistical and demographic perspectives are not incompatible and that one of the aims of our paper is to encourage the U.S. Census Bureau to consider ways to improve the usability of the 1-year ACS PPH estimates.

Young Adult Dating Relationships and the Management of Sexual Risk

Abstract: Young adult involvement in sexual behavior typically occurs within a relationship context, but we know little about the ways in which specific features of romantic relationships influence sexual decision-making. Prior work on sexual risk taking focuses attention on health issues rather than relationship dynamics. We draw on data from the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (n = 475) to examine the association between qualities and dynamics of current/most recent romantic relationships such as communication and emotional processes, conflict, demographic asymmetries, and duration and the management of sexual risk. We conceptualize ‘risk management’ as encompassing multiple domains, including (1) questioning the partner about previous sexual behaviors/risks, (2) using condoms consistently, and (3) maintaining sexual exclusivity within the relationship. We identify distinct patterns of risk management among dating young adults and find that specific qualities and dynamics of these relationships are linked to variations in risk management. Results from this paper suggest the need to consider relational dynamics in efforts to target and influence young adult sexual risk-taking and reduce STIs, including HIV.

Schools, Neighborhoods and Selection: Outcomes Across Metropolitan Los Angeles

Abstract: What is the relationship between school segregation and neighborhood segregation across school districts in Los Angeles County, and are school district outcomes on reading and mathematics scores related to levels of school segregation across these districts? We compute segregation scores using US tract level data for 2000 and use reading and mathematics scores from California State tests. Data from the Los Angeles family and neighborhood survey are used to track individual residential changes and differences in the associated Woodcock Johnson scores. We show that there is a close link between levels of school segregation and neighborhood segregation and that many suburban school districts are relatively integrated across both neighborhoods and schools. When we examine average school district outcomes on reading and mathematics scores we do not find any relationship with levels of segregation. At the same time there is clear evidence of spatial sorting with poorer and lower scoring children moving into school districts (or zones with poorer achieving schools). The multi-level models of segregation and achievement show that the variance in achievement levels across districts is significantly greater than across schools within districts.

Socioeconomic Inequalities and Self-Rated Health: A Multilevel Study of Italian Elderly

Abstract: We adopted a multilevel approach in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the main social and economic differences associated with inequalities in self-rated health, according to the territorial context of residence. We focused on the Italian population aged 65 and over, availing of the most recent data on health conditions in Italy. This study proves the persistence in Italy, a modern welfare state that has one of the best overall healthcare systems in the world, of significant, if not enormous, socioeconomic differences in self-perceived health among the elderly. We found that each component of the socioeconomic status is autonomously correlated with individual perceptions of health, highlighting the importance of considering all of the facets of the individual socioeconomic status in measuring the extent of health inequalities. The lack of a network of relationships was also found to be strongly associated with a poor health status for elderly Italians. Our study also documented the presence of a contextual effect. The proposed multilevel modeling proved to be useful in shedding light on relevant aspects in the field of perceived health and for avoiding misleading results.

Going Back Part-time: Family Leave Legislation and Women’s Return to Work

Abstract: Using a multinomial logit model with data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, this paper tests whether the implementation of the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) is associated with an increase in return to work at part-time status among first-time mothers working full-time during their pregnancy. I find a statistically significant trend of increasingly higher odds of returning to work at part-time status relative to return at full-time status, beginning in 1993 (the year in which the FMLA is implemented). Furthermore, an additional week of either state or federal leave is significantly associated with a higher odds of return at part-time status. This article provides evidence that job protection and leave legislation may help facilitate higher levels of labor force participation among women with small children, through more flexible work arrangements.

Living Arrangements and the Well-being of Single Mothers in Japan.

Abstract: The goal of this paper is to evaluate the extent to which the well-being of single mothers in Japan is related to coresidence with other adults. Using data from a representative survey of households headed by single mothers, we examine two measures of subjective well-being: perceived economic circumstances and self-rated health. One-fourth of the single mothers surveyed were coresiding with another adult(s) and it is clear that these women fare significantly better than their non-coresiding counterparts on both measures of well-being. Net of several theoretically relevant sociodemographic, family, and employment characteristics, single mothers living with others were significantly less likely to report somewhat difficult/difficult economic circumstances or fair/poor health. Efforts to account for potential endogeneity between well-being and living arrangements suggested that self-rated health, but not subjective economic well-being, is related to selection into coresidence. Single mothers in fair/poor health appear more likely to coreside with others and, accounting for this selection, intergenerational coresidence appears to be very beneficial for self-rated health. We discuss the implications of these findings for processes of stratification in Japan in light of the limited public income support available to single mothers.

The Decline of Smoking Among Female Birth Cohorts in China in the 20th Century: A Case of Arrested Diffusion?

Abstract: The smoking prevalence by age of women in China is distinct from most other countries in showing more frequent smoking among older women than younger. Using newly developed birth cohort histories of smoking, the authors demonstrate that although over one quarter of women born 1908–1912 smoked, levels of smoking declined across successive cohorts. This occurred despite high rates of smoking by men and the wide availability of cigarettes. The analysis shows how this pattern is counter to that predicted by the leading theoretical perspectives on the diffusion of smoking and suggests that it arose out of a mix of Confucian traditions relating to gender and the socio-economic and political events early in the twentieth century which placed emerging women’s identities in conflict with national identities. That a similar pattern of smoking is evident in Japan and Korea, two countries with strong cultural affinities to China, is used to buttress the argument.

Cohort Effects or Period Effects? Fertility Decline in South Korea in the Twentieth Century

Abstract: This study examines if the Korean fertility decline is driven by long-term cohort changes or by fluctuating period changes. By using a classic age–period–cohort model, a moment decomposition method, and a new summary fertility measure—‘cross-sectional average fertility’—I show that the Korean fertility decline is primarily driven by period changes and that delayed childbearing has important consequences for the onset of fertility decline. These findings are in line with the existing literature in fertility changes such as theories of fertility transitions and sociological accounts of fertility changes in Western countries in the twentieth century. The policy implications of these findings are also discussed.

The Migratory Response of Labor to Special Economic Zones in the Philippines, 1995–2005

Abstract: In the mid 1990s the Filipino government adopted a new export-led development policy in an attempt to attract new investments and lower the unemployment rates throughout the country The central idea was to provide foreign investors more access to Filipino markets and labor by giving them investor tax breaks and lowering trade tariffs In return, the government hoped that investors would bring large amounts of capital into designated areas thereby creating new jobs and stimulating the domestic economy The Filipino created the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) and Base Conversion Development Authority (BCDA) to manage the operation of the Special Economic Zones (SEZ) throughout the country Between 1995 and 2005 PEZA and BCDA approved over 200 new SEZ that have created over four million jobs throughout the country However, these jobs are concentrated in a small number of regions This research uses a modified Harris-Todaro model and GIS techniques to examine the inter-regional migration response to the PEZA and BCDA programs’ geographically targeted investments We show that areas with the highest job growth have high rates of in-migration while regions with low SEZ related investments have become migration-sending areas In addition, our analysis shows that in-migration to SEZ affected areas has tended to surpass available jobs resulting in high unemployment We show how the Harris-Todaro model in combination with GIS might be used to identify locations for future PEZA and BCDA investments that are less likely to result in regional population loss or growth in unemployment

Sibship Characteristics and Transition to First Marriage in Taiwan: Explaining Gender Asymmetries

Abstract: Sociologists have long been interested in the effects of sibship structures. Although previous research generally focuses on the impacts of sibship characteristics on educational outcomes, these characteristics may also affect individuals’ decisions about marriage by shaping their resource availability, parental expectations, or social skills and contacts. Using a nationally representative sample from Taiwan, we examine how sibship size, birth-order rank, and sibship sex composition are associated with men’s and women’s transitions to first marriage. The analysis shows that men who have no male siblings tend to accelerate their rates of entering marriage. By contrast, women with more siblings or in earlier birth positions are likely to do the same. We argue that the findings for women reflect the influences of sibship structures on household resource allocation, whereas those for men have to do with the cultural emphasis on sons’ responsibility for carrying on the family lineage. Moreover, Chinese cultural norms that prescribe different roles for married sons and daughters account for the asymmetrical mechanisms revealed for men and women in Taiwan. Results from this study thus underscore the need to consider family norms and cultural contexts in explaining the transition to marriage.

Determinants of Educational Attainment in Rural Thailand: A Life Course Approach

Abstract: Using data from rural Thailand, we examine the determinants of educational attainment of school-age children We organize our analysis around three central principles of the life course perspective: the embeddedness of lives in historical time and place, linked or interconnected lives, and the timing of lives We examine these principles using comparisons within cohorts and between cohorts We find that educational attainment is related to a combination of factors related to each of these principles Specifically, despite a serious economic downturn occurring midway through our study, we nonetheless found that educational levels were higher following the downturn than preceding it Interconnections to parents and siblings also affected educational outcomes, as did the timing of life events such as migration, marriage, and childbearing For the latter, mother’s education and migration both positively affected educational attainment For the former, having more siblings, both those in the household and those migrating, reduced education

A Sudden Transition: Household Changes for Middle Aged U.S. Women in the Twentieth Century.

Abstract: Between 1900 and 1990, the percentage of U.S. white women aged 40-69 living with a child of their own fell from 63% to 27%, with three fourths of that change occurring between 1940 and 1960. Historical census data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series and longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics allow an historical and contemporary examination of co-residence patterns among these women. Analysis reveals three eras: a system of co-residence in the early twentieth century, a sudden transition toward separate households at mid century, and the maintenance of that separate household system thereafter. The scholarly literature features cultural, demographic, and economic explanations for the long-term decline in co-residence, but has given little attention to the rapid mid-century shift. Analysis of IPUMS data confirms the long-term effects of declines in mortality and fertility, and concomitant declines in the age of mothers at last birth, but also points to a sharp drop in the age of children at marriage in the mid-twentieth century. These factors raised the potential for the formation of separate households, but this historical era was also a propitious one for separation: income gains for young workers were unprecedented, the labor force participation of married women rose, and immigration fell. Analysis of PSID data from 1968 to 2009 confirms the salience of children's socioeconomic circumstances-particularly their marriage and employment prospects but also the increasing availability of higher education-in maintaining the separate household system. While the data analyzed allow only inferences about cultural factors, the resiliency of the new household system, even in periods of economic decline, suggests that it is now likely buttressed by strong normative views.

Framing in Legislation: The Case of Population Policy in the Philippines

Abstract: This paper investigates the political framing of population in policy discourse through an analysis of legislative documents. Semantic network analysis was conducted and results were interpreted through discourse analysis of the typical arguments identified. Policy texts were classified into three sets: population management, reproductive health and family planning, and anti-abortion and anti-FP. While the “population management” frame focuses on social and economic consequences of population growth, the “reproductive health” frame defines the problem from a health perspective. Both policies propose aggressive FP programs but each frame uses distinct political rhetoric and semantic approach in its arguments. The “anti-abortion and anti-FP” frame identifies two problems: rise in incidence of abortion and existing policy that prohibit health professionals from refusing patients information on contraception. By invoking a moral argument and anchoring on rights, these policies challenge the problem and solutions identified by the first two frames.

India's 'missing women' and men's sexual risk behavior

Abstract: Although scholars and policymakers have long been concerned with the “missing women” of India, little rigorous research has examined the consequences of India’s sex ratio imbalance for young men’s sexual risk behavior and reproductive health. We use data from the third wave of India’s 2005–2006 National Family and Health Survey to examine the influence of the community female-to-male sex ratio at ages 10–39 on men’s likelihood of marrying early in life, of engaging in premarital, multi-partnered, and commercial sex, and of contracting a sexually-transmitted disease. We estimate logistic regression models that control for respondents’ demographic and socioeconomic status and that adjust for the clustering of observations within communities. Net of the effects of other characteristics, the female-to-male sex ratio is positively and significantly associated with the likelihood that men marry prior to age 18 and inversely and significantly associated with the odds that men have had intercourse with a commercial sex worker. However, no significant net associations are observed between the sex ratio and the other outcomes. Education, wealth, religious affiliation, caste, and geographic region emerge as significant predictors of Indian men’s sexual risk behaviors.