Showing papers in "Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics in 2013"

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose to use a Kriging surrogate for the performance function as a means to build a quasi-optimal importance sampling density, which can be applied to analytical and finite element reliability problems and proves efficient up to 100 basic random variables.

TL;DR: In this paper, a response surface is built from an initial Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) where the most significant terms are chosen from statistical criteria and cross-validation method.

TL;DR: In this article, four different metamodels, namely, polynomial response surface models as a reference to classical surrogate models, along with emerging multivariate adaptive regression splines, radial basis function networks, and support vector machines, are used to develop multi-dimensional seismic demand models for critical components of a simply supported concrete girder bridge class.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a Bayesian framework for probabilistic low cycle fatigue (LCF) life prediction and quantified the uncertainty of material properties, total inputs and model uncertainty resulting from choices of different deterministic models in a LCF regime.

TL;DR: The main methodological contributions are the proposal of a strategy for selecting the prognostic approach which best suits the information setting, even in presence of mixed information sources and the development of a bootstrap method able to assess the confidence in the RUL prediction in the third case characterized by the unavailability of any degradation observations until failure.

TL;DR: A new formulation of the Cholesky decomposition for the EPSD/PSD matrix and corresponding simulation scheme are presented and the previous closed-form wind speed simulation algorithm for equally-spaced locations is extended to a more general situation.

TL;DR: A novel iterative methodology is presented that simply and efficiently estimates a non-Gaussian CSDM that is compatible with the prescribed non- Gaussian PDFs and closely approximates the prescribed incompatibleNon-GaRussian CSDM.

TL;DR: In this article, a stochastic modeling of the track geometry and its identification with experimental measurements is proposed to better understand the interaction between the dynamics of high speed trains and track geometry.

TL;DR: In this paper, two different approaches generalizing the Karhunen-Loeve series expansion to model and simulate multi-correlated non-stationary stochastic processes are proposed.

TL;DR: In this paper, the theoretical framework of the Projection-by-Projection (PbP) method was used to provide a possible mathematical interpretation of the single moment (SM) approach, a spectral method for estimating fatigue damage in uniaxial stochastic loadings that was elaborated in 1990 on a purely "empirical" basis.

TL;DR: In this article, rotational motion of a nonlinear Mathieu equation with a narrow-band stochastic excitation was considered and path integration technique was used to obtain the joint probability density function of the response.

TL;DR: In this paper, a hull girder reliability assessment using a Monte Carlo based simulation method was performed considering as possible failure modes the ultimate collapse of the midship cross section in vertical bending or its local failure due to yielding of the material or buckling collapse of one of its structural elements.

TL;DR: In this article, an improved optimization algorithm is presented to construct accurate reduced order models for random vectors, where the objective function quantifies the discrepancy between the statistics of the SROM and the random vector being modeled.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed a method for estimating the failure probability for several sets of random realizations of the input distributions in the general case of several interval parameters per distribution.

TL;DR: An efficient reliability estimation approach to be used in the framework of reliability-based optimization that consists of reusing during the optimization procedure the results of the previous iterations.

TL;DR: The analytical polynomial chaos representations derived herein are shown to be very accurate, and can be employed in predicting the reliability of structural components subject to fatigue.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors employed micromechanics, which can be viewed as an upscaling, smoothing procedure using the concept of a mesoscale “window”, and random field theory to compute the correlation structure of 4th-rank tensor fields of stiffness and compliance.

TL;DR: Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region [9041550, CityU 110210] and National Natural Science Foundation of China [51105309] contribute to this research.

TL;DR: In this paper, the cell-vertex finite volume method is applied for developing a computational scheme to numerically solve the solute transport equation in a locally one-dimensional open channel network, where the exact solution to a local two-point boundary value problem is used for evaluating the flux at the interface of each pair of two dual cells.

TL;DR: In this paper, a new version of the Probabilistic Transformation Method (PTM) has been reported for the study of linear systems subjected to static random loads, and some interesting results have been obtained in the case of uniformly distributed random loads.

TL;DR: In this paper, a hysteretic model for multi-grid composite walls is proposed to model the behavior of composite wall specimens under lateral cyclic loading, where effects of stiffness degradation, strength degradation and pinching are considered.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors evaluate the time variant reliability of ship hulls and develop an algorithm based on fast integration techniques in order to assess the structural reliability efficiently instead of the conventional numerical integration methods.

TL;DR: In this paper, the largest Lyapunov exponent of the averaged Ito stochastic differential equation (SDE) was derived and the approximately necessary and sufficient condition for the stability of an n-DOF quasi non-integrable Hamiltonian system subject to weakly parametric excitations of combined Gaussian and Poisson white noises.

TL;DR: In this paper, an impulse control model is used to define an optimal maintenance policy for structures that deteriorate as a result of extreme events (e.g., earthquakes) based on an impulse-control model, which takes into account the effect of damage accumulation.

TL;DR: In this paper, an alternative expression for the Ito integral in stochastic dynamical systems with parametric Poisson white noise is presented, which is a special case of the Marcus integrals.

TL;DR: In this article, a model of phase spectrum is developed which relies upon a single argument associated with the concept of starting-time of phase evolution, and its probabilistic structure is investigated through the estimation of the measured data of wind speeds.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed a framework that integrates bridge condition (or state) with vulnerability assessment of bridges under external loading by developing state-dependent fragility curves of a two-span reinforced concrete bridge.

TL;DR: In this paper, a new linear superposition theory is proposed to model the cycle-dependent and time-dependent creep-fatigue-oxidation crack growth phenomena, which can be reduced to creep−fatigue and fatigue−oxidation cracks.

TL;DR: In this article, the random buckling bearing capacity (RBBC) was evaluated based on the probability density evolution method (PDEM) and corresponding numerical algorithms, and the mean values of the RBBC approximately equal to the results of the deterministic buckling analysis.

TL;DR: In this article, a multiscale poromechanics-hydration model applied to cement pastes of water-to-cement ratio of 040, 050 and 060 is presented.