Showing papers in "The Journal of Politics in 1995"
TL;DR: In this article, a model of legislative voting based on the operation of Brazil's political institutions is developed to understand the motivations of congressional deputies. But the model is limited in the sense that the nature of deputies' electoral bases, especially the clustering of their support and their domination of local constituency, constrain deputies' preferences.
Abstract: Why is Brazil's legislature extraordinarily active in the distribution of pork barrel but largely inactive on national issues? This article explores the question by illuminating the motivations of congressional deputies. Emphasizing the effects of open-list proportional representation and executive dominance over resources, I develop a model of legislative voting based on the operation of Brazil's political institutions. The nature of deputies' electoral bases, especially the clustering of their support and their domination of local constituencies, constrain deputies' preferences. Ideological positions matter as well, but the socioeconomic characteristics of constituencies only weakly affect legislative voting. Pork-barrel programs controlled by the president also profoundly influence deputies' broader voting patterns. When the motivations of deputies favor deals maximizing local pork barrel and discourage strengthening parties and responding to broader constituency demands, it is no surprise that the leg...
367Â citations
TL;DR: This article examined the role of racial attitudes in shaping white Americans' opposition to welfare and found that racial attitudes are in fact the most important source of opposition among whites, and that negative attitudes toward blacks lead many whites who support spending for education, health care, and the elderly to oppose means-tested programs aimed exclusively at the poor.
Abstract: This article examines the role of racial attitudes in shaping white Americans' opposition to welfare. Past research on welfare views has focused on economic self-interest, individualism, and egalitarianism. Using a covariance structure model, I confirm the significance of these factors, but find that racial attitudes are in fact the most important source of opposition to welfare among whites. In addition, racial attitudes influence the pattern of support white Americans express toward various aspects of the welfare state: negative attitudes toward blacks lead many whites who support spending for education, health care, and the elderly to oppose means-tested programs aimed exclusively at the poor. Finally, this research carries implications for broader theories of race and politics. Contrary to the suggestion that traditional racial prejudice is no longer a potent force in American politics, I show that at least one aspect of traditional prejudice--the stereotype of blacks as lazy--is still widespread and ...
337Â citations
TL;DR: The authors found that the ideological values of the Eisenhower through Bush appointees correlate strongly with votes cast in economic and civil liberties cases, but the results are less robust for justices appointed by Roosevelt and Truman.
Abstract: Segal and Cover (1989) analyzed the content of newspaper editorials to devise measures of the ideological values of the justices of the U.S. Supreme Court. Because their measures came from sources independent of the judicial vote, scholars have widely adopted them. This note updates, backdates, and extends the Segal and Cover research by adding the two Bush appointees and the seven Roosevelt and four Truman nominees whose service extended beyond the start of the Vinson Court. While we find that the ideological values of the Eisenhower through Bush appointees correlate strongly with votes cast in economic and civil liberties cases, the results are less robust for justices appointed by Roosevelt and Truman.
255Â citations
TL;DR: This paper investigated whether racial isolation affects the extent to which prejudice becomes insinuated into the opinions white Americans express on matters of racial policy and found that racial isolation generally enhances the impact of prejudice on opinion; that the political potency of prejudice increases insofar as racial isolation prevails in whites' everyday lives.
Abstract: Despite the heroic efforts and real achievements provided by the Civil Rights movement, the United States remains today a profoundly segregated society. Here we investigate whether racial isolation affects the extent to which prejudice becomes insinuated into the opinions white Americans express on matters of racial policy. Analyzing national survey data well suited to this question, we find that racial isolation generally enhances the impact of prejudice on opinion; that the political potency of prejudice increases insofar as racial isolation prevails in whites' everyday lives. In the conclusion of the article, we locate our results in the broader literature on segregation and draw out their implications for racial politics into the future.
201Â citations
TL;DR: This article analyzed the influence of abortion attitudes on candidate choice in the 1992 U.S. presidential election and found that attitudes toward abortion had a significant influence on the overall electorate, despite the general belief that the presidential election was decided almost exclusively on economic issues.
Abstract: This article uses data from the 1992 American National Election Study to analyze the influence of abortion attitudes on candidate choice in the 1992 presidential election. Despite the general belief that the presidential election was decided almost exclusively on economic issues, attitudes toward abortion had a significant influence on candidate choice in the overall electorate. Although the issue divided supporters of both parties, far more "pro-choice" Republicans than "pro-life" Democrats defected from their party's presidential candidate. Abortion had a stronger influence on candidate choice than any other policy issue included in the study, including affirmative action, social welfare, defense spending, the Gulf War, and the death penalty. Furthermore, among voters who were aware of the parties' positions and for whom abortion was a salient issue, abortion had a much stronger influence on candidate choice than any other issue, including the state of the economy.
200Â citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that, quite apart from the status of different litigants, lawyers can be viewed as repeat players who affect judicial outcomes, and they propose and test a theory in which the informational needs of the Court are better met by more credible litigators.
Abstract: How important are lawyers in the decision making of the U.S. Supreme Court? Although legal expertise has long been assumed to benefit certain litigants, the frequency with which lawyers appear before the Court has not been directly measured. In this article, I argue that, quite apart from the status of different litigants, lawyers can be viewed as repeat players who affect judicial outcomes. Using data from the U.S. Supreme Court Judicial Data Base with data from the United States Reports, I propose and test a theory in which the informational needs of the Court are better met by more credible litigators. Thus, for example, a more experienced lawyer significantly raises the probability of a party's success. The findings testify to the efficacy of experienced counsel, irrespective of the parties they represent.
188Â citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluated the role of incumbent quality within the electoral system and found that incumbents who are low in quality are highly likely to leave Congress after only a few years, either because of voluntary retirement or electoral defeat.
Abstract: All voters may share a common interest in maximizing the quality of representatives in the U.S. House. If voters act on this interest when evaluating congressional candidates, then the electoral system will function with a collective sense of rationality. Incumbents who lack competence or integrity will be voted out, whereas skilled and principled incumbents will be retained. Quality, competence, and integrity scores are produced in this study for representatives who entered the U.S. House in the period 1969-1981. These values then are used to assess the role of incumbent quality within the electoral system. Results reveal that incumbents who are low in quality are highly likely to leave Congress after only a few years, either because of voluntary retirement or electoral defeat. Further, incumbent quality is shown to affect the dynamics of primary elections, the level of challenger spending in general elections, and the general election margin. Cumulatively, this study's findings strongly support the clai...
185Â citations
TL;DR: This paper examined the effects of media portrayals of public support for candidates on the behavior of potential campaign contributors and found that strategic considerations weigh heavily in decisions to donate money to political candidates.
Abstract: The quantity of "horse-race" coverage of political campaigns has been amply documented, but its consequences for the dynamics of campaigns are less well understood. This study examines the effects of media portrayals of public support for candidates on the behavior of potential campaign contributors. This relationship is tested in the context of the four leading Democratic presidential primary candidates in 1988. A time-series analysis of contributor behavior suggests that horse-race spin--that is, the extent of media coverage suggesting a candidate is gaining or losing political support--helps determine the frequency of campaign contributions. Consistent with previous research, some contributors are motivated to donate by coverage suggesting that their strongly favored candidate is losing ground, while other candidacies benefit from coverage suggesting increased viability. Overall, findings suggest that strategic considerations weigh heavily in decisions to donate money to political candidates.
168Â citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a duration-based specification of motor voter is employed, to account for the fact that driver's license renewal cycles last up to six years or even more in some states.
Abstract: The National Voter Registration Act of 1993 mandates "motor voter" programs in all states prior to the 1996 presidential election. Using state-level registration and turnout data over the 1976-1992 period, this study finds that motor voter programs already implemented in many states have significantly increased participation rates. A duration-based specification of motor voter is employed, to account for the fact that driver's license renewal cycles last up to six years or even more in some states. Dummy-variable specifications are shown to underestimate the eventual impact of motor voter. Models include state dummy variables to control for long-standing differences in participation rates across states that otherwise bias coefficient estimates for registration closing date and other variables. In contrast to motor voter, other provisions required by the NVRA--including mail-in and agency-based registration, and limitations on the purging of voter rolls--show little evidence of effectiveness in the states ...
166Â citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors measure the relationship between territorial disputes and the initiation of interstate war in the contemporary world and find that war is more frequent in cases where states formally dispute the placement of their shared boundary (and the existing boundary lacks standing under international law) than in instances where the boundary is clearly delimited and legally valid.
Abstract: This study attempts to measure the relationship between territorial disputes and the initiation of interstate war in the contemporary world. Data for the period 1945-1987 suggest that the existence of an official territorial dispute, where the dispute is contiguous to both sides, is a key variable in determining whether war occurs. War is many times more frequent in cases where states formally dispute the placement of their shared boundary (and the existing boundary lacks standing under international law) than in instances where the boundary is clearly delimited and legally valid.
161Â citations
TL;DR: This paper examined the relationship between economic conditions and the vote in the major industrial democracies and found that in countries with low to moderate levels of welfare spending, the economy has a more dramatic effect on the vote when things are good than when things were bad, and the economy plays less of a role in states with high levels of spending regardless of the direction of economic change.
Abstract: We examine the question of economic voting in the major industrial democracies. Using pooled time series data for 17 nations from 1960 to 1987, we argue that the magnitude and nature of the relationship between economic conditions and the vote depends upon the level of welfare state development. We find that (a) in countries with low to moderate levels of welfare spending, the economy has a more dramatic effect on the vote when things are good than when things are bad, and (b) the economy plays less of a role in states with high levels of spending, regardless of the direction of economic change. The implications for voting behavior, democratic accountability, and welfare policy are discussed.
TL;DR: Men and women in this study conceptualized the origins of and solutions to crime differently as discussed by the authors, which can be understood in terms of gendered socialization, experiences and opportunities in western societies, while men tended to see criminals as autonomous individuals responsible for choosing a life of crime.
Abstract: A potential policy problem based on an actual study of prisons and recidivism rates was presented to 47 Colorado legislators during a taped interview that was later transcribed. Men and women in this study conceptualized the origins of and solutions to crime differently. These differences can be understood in terms of gendered socialization, experiences and opportunities in western societies. Women tended to see criminals as people interacting within the context of societal opportunities, while men tended to see criminals as autonomous individuals responsible for choosing a life of crime. These fundamentally different views of the origins of crime lead to distinctive policy solutions. Finally, the self-articulated orientations were compared with all the actual crime and prison bills proposed in the 1989 session. The gender differences uncovered in the interviews were also found in actual policy proposals. However, women were less successful than men in passing their legislation.
TL;DR: This paper showed that sometimes less is better than more, though all else be equal, under naive, sophisticated, and cooperative voting, and that a strong version must occur in all but special cases.
Abstract: It has long been taken for granted that legislative representation is an asset, something of which more is always better than less, all else equal. No, sometimes less is better than more though all else be equal. This paradox can occur under naive, sophisticated, and cooperative voting. From a model of distributive politics I deduce that a strong version must occur in all but special cases. The paradox refutes an assumption of many electoral-system studies, offers a new explanation of discrepancies between public opinion and public policy, challenges classical approaches to political analysis, including pluralism and Marxism, and shows that "fair representation" is not a requirement of justice.
TL;DR: This paper examined the effect of black density at the local level on white voter behavior and found that the level of black voter density at local level positively influences the probability that a white voter in that locale will vote for a black candidate.
Abstract: This analysis brings together two long-standing research traditions in political science. One tradition, beginning with Key (1949), focuses on the negative reaction white voters exhibit when located in areas of relatively higher levels of black voter density as measured at the county and/or state level. The second tradition, which can be traced back to Tingsten (1963) and Berelson, Lazarsfeld, and McPhee (1954), illustrates how the immediate social context within which voters find themselves exerts a positive influence on their electoral behavior. This study links these two traditions by examining the effect of black density at the local level on white voter behavior. The analysis finds that the level of black voter density at the local level positively influences the probability that a white voter in that locale will vote for a black candidate. The implications of this finding are discussed in the conclusion.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used electoral and district-level census data for the congressional districts of eight southern states in the 1990 and 1992 elections and found that, of the nine seats taken by the Republicans in 1992, four were due to the creation of majority black districts.
Abstract: This article asks a relatively simple question: does the creation of majority black electoral districts in the South aid Republicans? Given the post-1990 reapportionment of state legislative and congressional districts, and the zeal with which Sections Two and Five of the Voting Rights Act have been enforced by Republican Justice Departments, this is a timely question. The rise in the electoral fortunes of southern Republicans in the past decade also demands an answer to this question. Using electoral and district-level census data for the congressional districts of eight southern states in the 1990 and 1992 elections, this article found that, of the nine seats taken by the Republicans in 1992, four were due to the creation of majority black districts. Further, the following analysis finds that several previously uncompetitive Democratically held districts were made competitive by the creation of majority black districts, and can be expected to swing Republican in the next few years, especially given furt...
TL;DR: The authors examine the extent to which justices consider the relative likelihood of winning on the merits when deciding to grant or deny review, and find strong evidence that justices who wish to affirm carefully consider probable outcomes, but find no evidence that they reverse do so.
Abstract: We examine strategic certiorari voting among the justices of the Vinson Court, ie, the extent to which justices consider the relative likelihood of winning on the merits when deciding to grant or deny review We find strong evidence that justices who wish to affirm carefully consider probable outcomes, but find no evidence that justices who wish to reverse do so In Perry's (1991) terms, we find that the justices engage in aggressive grants but do not engage in defensive denials
TL;DR: This article found that voters who faced the option of condemning an incumbent they otherwise appreciated or dismissing the offense as inconsequential often chose the latter course, while voters of the incumbent's party showed a strong tendency to err in the incumbent party's favor in assessing involvement in the scandal.
Abstract: Analysis of the 1992 American National Election Study (ANES) data indicates that the House bank scandal reduced the vote for House incumbents by approximately five percentage points. The scandal mainly affected the small subset of voters who were most offended by bank overdrafts and who did not assume that their representative had a clean record. Fortunately for members who had written bad checks, voters who knew about the transgression were least disposed to be outraged by it, while the voters most disposed to outrage were also most inclined to believe the guilty were innocent. The explanation for these curious patterns is that voters who faced the option of condemning an incumbent they otherwise appreciated or dismissing the offense as inconsequential often chose the latter course. The damage was also moderated by partisanship; voters of the incumbent's party showed a strong tendency to err in the incumbent's favor in assessing involvement in the scandal. The classical theory of cognitive dissonance rea...
TL;DR: This paper showed that regardless of how much information, education, or status citizens have, they are not likely to abandon democracy and capitalism because of economic chaos, in other words, there are no readily identifiable pockets of unsophisticated citizenry that will respond to economic catastrophe by embracing antimarket or antidemocratic solutions.
Abstract: It has been suggested that in the early stages of transition to democratic capitalism, commitment to reform in former communist regimes is shaken by economic chaos. Evidence presented in this article demonstrates that regardless of how much information, education, or status citizens have, they are not likely to abandon democracy and capitalism because of economic chaos. In other words, there are no readily identifiable pockets of unsophisticated citizenry that will respond to economic catastrophe by embracing antimarket or antidemocratic solutions. The following analysis also suggests that citizens of the former Soviet Union and of Eastern Europe recognize the differences between institutions and incumbents. While they do not abandon democratic capitalism in the face of economic chaos, they are likely to punish incumbents for economic hardships. The analysis relies on a survey of public opinion conducted by the author in 1990 of a representative sample of residents of the European portion of the USSR and ...
TL;DR: This article developed an aggregate model of the presidential vote based on the appropriation of political as well as economic information by a rational voter, arguing that information about political corruption is relevant to individual, and hence aggregate, vote choice.
Abstract: We develop an aggregate model of the presidential vote based on the appropriation of political as well as economic information by a rational voter. We argue that, depending on historical context, information about political corruption is relevant to individual, and hence aggregate, vote choice. In preindustrial, community-oriented machine politics, the rational voter exchanged votes for particularistic benefits. As the social and political perspective shifted to a universalistic standard, information about corruption has become for him or her one of the criteria by which to evaluate the performance of the incumbent party. By including information about corruption alongside information about the economy, our model significantly improves upon conventional economic voting models in explaining post-New Deal presidential election outcomes.
TL;DR: This article investigated the relationship between media and political discussion and found that media exposure fuels political discussion, but that discussant effects on electoral choice are not influenced by the specific content of interpersonal discussion.
Abstract: Media content and interpersonal discussion both affect mass political behavior. However, assessment of the relationship between media and discussion is complicated by the difficulty in establishing the causal order of that relationship. This article addresses the question of causality by considering whether access to newspaper coverage affects the quantity of political discussion, and whether it influences discussant effects on the vote choice. A quasi-experimental approach is introduced to pursue these questions. Results indicate that media exposure fuels political discussion, but that discussant effects on electoral choice are not influenced by the specific content of interpersonal discussion. Further, media exposure may discourage cue-based decision making and thus limit discussant effects on vote choice.
TL;DR: The authors proposed a new sequential approach, specifying two theoretical linkages: the standard "success" linkage and a "conversion" linkage, and used "sway" and headcount data to test the standard hypotheses about approval, including Neustadt's (1960) shift of range and asymmetry hypotheses and Edwards (1989) partisan and bounded partisanship hypotheses.
Abstract: This article resolves the conflict between standard analyses of approval and presidential influence; one suggesting a strong relationship, the other suggesting very little relationship. We introduce a new sequential approach, specifying two theoretical linkages: the standard "success" linkage and a "conversion" linkage. We use "sway" and headcount data to test the standard hypotheses about approval, including Neustadt's (1960) "shift of range" and asymmetry hypotheses and Edwards (1989) partisan and bounded partisanship hypotheses. We demonstrate that approval plays little role in presidential influence. Future research will apply this approach and data to more complex, less standard conceptualizations of the linkage.
TL;DR: The authors examined the relationship between racial consciousness or identity, system blame, and religiosity for African Americans, with a particular focus on the effects of church-based education and activism on racial-group consciousness.
Abstract: This research examines the relationships between racial consciousness or identity, system blame, and religiosity for African Americans, with a particular focus on the effects of church-based education and activism on racial-group consciousness. This is achieved by clarifying religiosity to include both the civic message communicated and the political activism promoted by religious organizations. Data from the 1984 National Black Election Study are used to examine the connections between various demographic factors, religiosity, religious messages, and several measures of racial identity. Findings indicate that two different messages are presented at places of worship: one communicating civic awareness and the other promoting political activity. Greater exposure to the former tends to produce higher levels of racial identity, while exposure to the latter leads to greater perceptions of power imbalance among groups. Such feelings of racial and power imbalance lead to a greater tendency to blame the governme...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors document the change of the identities of Republicans and Democrats on trade policy and demonstrate in pooled cross-sectional analyses that presidents of both parties now exert a free-trade influence on House votes.
Abstract: We document the change of the identities of Republicans and Democrats on trade policy. This change involves a reversal of positions in the House of Representatives but a convergence on the presidential level. We also demonstrate in pooled cross-sectional analyses that presidents of both parties now exert a free-trade influence on House votes.
TL;DR: Although Americans were more active in the 1992 campaign and felt they were better informed than they had been in 1988, National Election Studies data from both years show that Americans were not substantially more knowledgeable.
Abstract: Although Americans were more active in the 1992 campaign and felt they were better informed than they had been in 1988, National Election Studies (NES) data from both years show that Americans were not substantially more knowledgeable. Two-stage-least-squares equations estimated on the 1988 and 1992 NES show that the processes of becoming informed were the same in both years. These analyses show, once again, the intractability of political ignorance in mass publics.
TL;DR: This paper explored the effect of divisive nominating campaigns within the Democratic party on the party's success in presidential elections and found that divisiveness is defined as a function of the nominating method and the margin of victory, and the individual and combined effects of each variable on Democratic party success are measured through bivariate, multivariate, and probit analyses.
Abstract: The purpose of this article is to explore the effect of divisive nominating campaigns within the Democratic party on the party's success in presidential elections. Divisiveness is defined as a function of the nominating method and the margin of victory. The individual and combined effects of each variable on Democratic party success is measured through bivariate, multivariate, and probit analyses. The results show that divisiveness hurts the Democratic party's prospects for winning the general election after controlling for state party orientation and incumbency. Democrats are more likely to lose states that use a divisive nominating mechanism (presidential primary) and win states that use a nondivisive mechanism (caucus). Moreover, among presidential primary states, divisiveness predicated upon margin of victory is strongly related to outcomes. Democrats are more likely to win primary states decided by wide margins and lose those states decided by narrow margins. The analysis covers every presidential primary, caucus, and general election outcome in individual states from 1932 to 1992.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the decisions of litigants in criminal cases to appeal decisions from the U.S. Courts of Appeals to the Supreme Court and demonstrated that such behavior is necessary if the court is to retain control over the federal judiciary.
Abstract: This article examines the decisions of litigants in criminal cases to appeal decisions from the U.S. Courts of Appeals to the U.S. Supreme Court. Using a random sample of search and seizure cases from 1962 through 1990 and a measure of the likelihood that the appeals court decision will be reversed if cert is granted, we demonstrate that litigants behave as if they rationally consider costs and benefits in their decisions to appeal. Given the extraordinary number of cases decided by lower federal courts vis-a-vis the number of cases the Supreme Court can decide, we argue that such behavior is necessary if the Supreme Court is to retain control over the federal judiciary.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors distinguish between associationalism, a measure of commitment to formal religious organizations, and a communal dimension that entails immersion in social networks dominated by coreligionists and suggest that religious commitment, however conceived, may be harnessed either to parties of religious interest or to political movements that express a broader religious ethos.
Abstract: Religious group membership may affect political behavior through multiple paths of influence and may be engaged in different political contexts. This study first distinguishes between associationalism, a measure of commitment to formal religious organizations, and a communal dimension that entails immersion in social networks dominated by coreligionists. We then suggest that religious commitment, however conceived, may be harnessed either to parties of religious interest or to political movements that express a broader religious ethos. Evidence from the 1984 Knesset elections in Israel demonstrates that both forms of religious involvement enhanced support for ostensibly "secular" parties in the right-wing bloc and Israel's religious parties. Support for parties of religious interest was most responsive to associational religiosity while parties of religious ethos exerted equal pull for voters high in religious communalism and associationalism. These results underscore the need for theoretical rigor in ass...
TL;DR: In this article, the influence of partisanship in early procedural choice in the early House of Representatives was examined and it was found that the polarization of partisan preferences strongly influenced procedural choices in the House.
Abstract: Conventional accounts of institutional change in the early House of Representatives suggest that increases in the size and workload of the chamber led members to adopt rules restricting the procedural rights of its members. In this article, I argue that this conventional explanation understates the influence of partisanship in dictating early procedural choice. Specifically, I use the House's adoption of the previous question rule in 1811 to test competing workload and partisan explanations of institutional change. Analyzing changes in congressional workload and partisanship from 1789 to 1823, I find that the polarization of partisan preferences strongly directed procedural choices in the early House. Moreover, I argue that procedural choices in both the House and Senate outlasted the voting alignments that first shaped them. The findings suggest the power of a partisan theory of institutional change to account for the timing and direction of congressional development and interchamber differences.
TL;DR: In this article, a reconsideration of the nature of theory in social scientific inquiry and an examination of current attempts to appropriate philosophical arguments in support of images of theory and the relationship between social science and political practice are examined.
Abstract: Contemporary issues in the philosophy of science, and the recent turn to scientific realism in political theory, prompt both a reconsideration of the nature of theory in social scientific inquiry and an examination of current attempts to appropriate philosophical arguments in support of images of theory and the relationship between social science and political practice. Metatheoretical claims about the explanation of social phenomena and about the possibilities of a critical social science are not a substitute for a substantive theory of social reality and a confrontation with the practical issue of the relationship between political theory and politics.