Agent based models for simulation of watersharing in a river basin

Robust Water Resource Planning at River Basins

Abstract: Freshwater is a fundamental, but scarce resource vital for life. Uncertainty is one of the significant factors in water resource systems planning and management problems. We consider the problem of water resource systems planning at river basins when there are competing demands and different operating policies. Firstly, we provide a mathematical model using the minimum cost network flow problem, in which the system is represented as a directed multi-graph. Arc coefficients are introduced for modeling gain/loss in the system. Multiple arcs are used to create of the system priorities. Secondly, we reformulate the aforementioned problem using cardinality-constrained robust optimization to address uncertainty when there is an agreement amongst decision makers about uncertainty sets. A set of experiments is conducted to demonstrate the trade-off between the level of robustness and the cost of robustness. We also use Monte-Carlo simulation to analyze the performance of the model in terms of its feasibility in the presence of uncertainty. Thirdly, we employ robust decision making (RDM) to address uncertainty when there is not an agreement amongst decision makers. RDM is applied to analyze the system performance under evaporation/ precipitation uncertainty. Monte-Carlo simulation is used to take samples from the uncertain future ranges. To evaluate the policies multiple attribute decision making (MADM) methodology is used. We have shown that the combination of RDM and MADM is a suitable approach for dealing with deep uncertainty and selecting the most suitable robust strategy. This thesis provides insight into modeling uncertainty in river basins systems.

An Introduction to Agent Based Modelling and Simulation of Social Processes

Abstract: The paper provides an introduction to agent-based modelling and simulation of social processes. Reader is introduced to the worldview underlying agent-based models, some basic terminology, basic properties of agent-based models, as well as to what one can and what cannot expect from such models, particularly when they are applied to social-scientific investigation. Special attention is given to the issues of validation.

Agent Based Simulation in Integrated Assessment and Resources Management

Abstract: Resource management problems have become more and more complex. The traditional approach to solving isolated environmental problems with technological fixes and end-of-pipe solutions has started to shift towards a more thoughtful and integrated attitude. Hence it becomes more and more important to develop appropriate means for representing the human dimension in integrated models and in the development of resource management regimes. This involves the development of integrated approaches to problem solving and thus to include as well stakeholder perspectives. Stakeholder should be included in the process of developing and adopting any resource management plan. In order to improve stakeholder-based policy design and modelling processes innovation and research is required in linking analytical methods and participatory approaches. Factual knowledge and analytical techniques have to be combined with local knowledge and subjective perceptions of the various stakeholder groups. Agent based modelling seems to be a particularly promising approach to include the human dimension into integrated assessment models and processes and thus into innovative approaches towards developing more sustainable and enduring resource management regimes.

An Agent-based simulation for water sharing between different users

Abstract: In France, water sharing has become a serious problem. We observed that many negotiations take place at local level between farmers, water suppliers, public services and environmentalists to allocate water resources between users. We suggest that Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) using a multi-agent approach could help negotiations. The model intends to show to negotiators possible consequences of different rules to share water. These consequences are evaluated upon different criteria. The model is based on different type of agents with different behaviour.