Journal ArticleDOI
Belief, knowledge, and uncertainty: A cognitive perspective on subjective probability
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TLDR
This article presented a cognitive analysis of subjective probability judgments and proposed that these are assessments of belief-processing activities, motivated by an investigation of the concepts of belief, knowledge, and uncertainty.About:
This article is published in Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes.The article was published on 1991-04-01. It has received 76 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Argument & Representational systems.read more
Citations
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Initial Trust Formation in New Organizational Relationships
TL;DR: In this article, a model of specific relationships among several trust-related constructs and two cognitive processes is proposed to explain the paradoxical finding of high initial trust levels in new organizational relationships.
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Communication and Uncertainty Management.
TL;DR: This paper outlines and extends a theory of uncertainty management and reviews current theory and research in this area and describes applications to health communication practice.
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Coping with Uncertainty: A Naturalistic Decision-Making Analysis
Raanan Lipshitz,Orna Strauss +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed 102 self-reports of decision-making under uncertainty with an inclusive method of classifying conceptualizations of uncertainty and coping mechanisms developed from the decisionmaking literature and found that decision makers distinguished among three types of uncertainty: inadequate understanding, incomplete information, and undifferentiated alternatives.
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Calibration and probability judgements: Conceptual and methodological issues
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present an extensive review of conceptual and methodological issues involved in the study of calibration and probability assessments, and advocate a more loose perspective, which is broader and more descriptive in nature.
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Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years
TL;DR: The past 25 years has seen a phenomenal growth of interest in judgemental approaches to forecasting and a significant change of attitude on the part of researchers to the role of judgement as discussed by the authors.
References
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Book
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Amos Tversky,Daniel Kahneman +1 more
TL;DR: The authors described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: representativeness, availability of instances or scenarios, and adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available.
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The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice
Amos Tversky,Daniel Kahneman +1 more
TL;DR: The psychological principles that govern the perception of decision problems and the evaluation of probabilities and outcomes produce predictable shifts of preference when the same problem is framed in different ways.
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Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability
Amos Tversky,Daniel Kahneman +1 more
TL;DR: A judgmental heuristic in which a person evaluates the frequency of classes or the probability of events by availability, i.e., by the ease with which relevant instances come to mind, is explored.
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Features of Similarity
TL;DR: The metric and dimensional assumptions that underlie the geometric representation of similarity are questioned on both theoretical and empirical grounds and a set of qualitative assumptions are shown to imply the contrast model, which expresses the similarity between objects as a linear combination of the measures of their common and distinctive features.
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Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms
TL;DR: The notion of "degrees of belief" was introduced by Knight as mentioned in this paper, who argued that people tend to behave "as though" they assigned numerical probabilities to events, or degrees of belief to the events impinging on their actions.