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Brothers or invaders? How crisis-driven migrants shape voting behavior

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This article study the electoral effects of the arrival of 1.3 million Venezuelan refugees in Colombia as a consequence of the Venezuelan humanitarian crisis and find that larger migration shocks increase voter's turnout and shift votes from left-to right-wing political ideologies.
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This article is published in Journal of Development Economics.The article was published on 2021-02-01 and is currently open access. It has received 27 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Voting behavior & Political agenda.

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Immigration and the Economy of Cities and Regions

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyze the local effects of immigration and its effect on urban and regional economies focusing on productivity and labor markets, and present a common conceptual frame to organize their analysis.
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Shift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present evidence that estimates based on this "shift-share" instrument conflate the short-and long-run responses to immigration shocks, and propose a "multiple instrumentation" procedure that isolates the spatial variation arising from changes in the country-of-origin composition at the national level and permits them to estimate separately the short and long run effects.
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Give me Your Tired and Your Poor: Impact of a Large-Scale Amnesty Program for Undocumented Refugees

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors study the labor market impacts of the Permiso Especial de Permanencia program, the largest migratory amnesty program offered to undocumented migrants in a developing country in modern history.
Posted Content

Immigrant Voters, Taxation and the Size of the Welfare State

TL;DR: This article studied the impact of immigration on public policy setting in West Germany and found that local governments responded to this migration shock with selective and persistent tax raises as well as shifts in spending.
Journal ArticleDOI

Immigration and Trust: The Case of Venezuelans in Colombia

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors combine an instrumental variable approach with a nationwide survey on social preferences to study the effect of the Venezuelan exodus into Colombia, which increased the population of Colombia by nearly 4% between 2015-2019.
References
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Book

An Economic Theory of Democracy

Anthony Downs
TL;DR: Downs presents a rational calculus of voting that has inspired much of the later work on voting and turnout as discussed by the authors, particularly significant was his conclusion that a rational voter should almost never bother to vote.
Journal ArticleDOI

An Economic Model of Representative Democracy

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors develop an approach to the study of democratic policy-making where politicians are selected by the people from those citizens who present themselves as candidates for public office.
Book

Mapping Policy Preferences: Estimates for Parties, Electors, and Governments 1945-1998

TL;DR: In this article, a comparative over-time mapping of policies and programs, 1945-1998, is presented, along with a detailed discussion of the main components of the mapping process.
Journal ArticleDOI

Balanced-budget redistribution as the outcome of political competition

TL;DR: In this article, balanced budget redistribution between socioeconomic groups is modeled as the outcome of electoral competition between two political parties, and a sufficient condition for existence is given, requiring that there be enough heterogeneity with respect to party preferences in the electorate.
ReportDOI

The Labor Demand Curve is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market

TL;DR: This article developed a new approach for estimating the labor market impact of immigration by exploiting this variation in supply shifts across education-experience groups, assuming that similarly educated workers with different levels of experience participate in a national labor market.
Related Papers (5)
Frequently Asked Questions (10)
Q1. What was the main driver of the internal forced displacement in Colombia in the late 1990s and early?

The escalation of the conflict was the main driver of the internal forced displacement witnessed in Colombia in the late 1990s and the early 2000s. 

because displacement originates mostlyin rural areas, the main economic activity prior to the displacement of most victims is agriculture(Ibáñez and Moya, 2006; Carrillo, 2009). 

larger international migration inflows are associated with an increase in political participation and a recomposition of votes from left to right-wing oriented political ideologies. 

Recently Jaeger et al. (2018) proposed that using early migrant settlements to identify the effects of 18Considering that the different elections take place in different months of the year, and, in order to have enough variation in migration outflows, when constructing the predicted inflows of forced migrants the authors aggregate the migration outflows for years t and t-1.migration in hosting regions may confound its short- and long-term causal effects in countries where migration patters are consistently directed to the same areas and are stable in time. 

Their empirical strategy is not sensitive to their critique because the inflows of internal and international migration were sudden and dramatically large in scale after the intensification of the crises. 

Large forced migration inflows, for example, may be associated with a disproportionate targeting of public resources to support these populations, or with larger business profits as wages fall due to an increased supply of labor. 

In particular, the authors observe that a one-standard-deviation increase in the predicted level of Venezuelan migration inflow causes an increase of 0.96 percentage points in political participation, an effects that is remarkably similar to that found for the second-round presidential election. 

If no candidate receives half plus 1 vote or more on election day, a run-off election between thetwo candidates with the most votes in the first round takes place three weeks later. 

As in the case of the presidential elections, due to the availability on votes receivedfor all candidates only since 1997 onwards, for their estimates the authors focus on the six local electionsthat took place between 1997 and 2015. 

To account for thispossibility their empirical strategy exploits the fact that, as crises intensify in their locations of ori-gin, migrants tend to move disproportionately to municipalities where they have networks, family, or acquaintances. 

Trending Questions (3)
What are the main factors that shape voting behavior?

The main factors that shape voting behavior are the economic effects of migrants and strategic electoral misinformation.

How do racial attitudes shape voting behavior?

The provided information does not mention anything about racial attitudes shaping voting behavior.

How does race shape voting behavior?

The provided information does not mention anything about how race shapes voting behavior.