Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth
TLDR
This paper found that countries with higher volatility have lower growth and that government spending-induced volatility is negatively associated with growth even after controlling for both time and country-fixed effects, and that the addition of standard control variables strengthened the negative relationship.Abstract:
This paper presents empirical evidence against the standard dichotomy in macroeconomics that separates growth from the volatility of economic fluctuations. In a sample of 92 countries as well as a sample of OECD countries, we find that countries with higher volatility have lower growth. The addition of standard control variables strengthens the negative relationship. We also find that government spending-induced volatility is negatively associated with growth even after controlling for both time- and country-fixed effects.read more
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International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors presented a data set that improves the measurement of educational attainment for a broad group of countries, and extended their previous estimates for the population over age 15 and over age 25 up to 1995 and provided projections for 2000.
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The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks
TL;DR: In this paper, a model with a time varying second moment is proposed to simulate a macro uncertainty shock, which produces a rapid drop and rebound in aggregate output and employment, which occurs because higher uncertainty causes firms to temporarily pause their investment and hiring.
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The New Growth Evidence
TL;DR: The authors surveys the recent empirical literature on economic growth, starting with a discussion of stylized facts, data problems, and statistical methods and concludes that efficiency has grown at different rates across countries, casting doubt on neoclassical models in which technology is a public good.
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Inequality and Economic Growth: The Perspective of the New Growth Theories
TL;DR: This paper analyzed the relationship between inequality and economic growth from two directions, showing that when capital markets are imperfect, there is not necessarily a trade-off between equity and efficiency, and provided an explanation for two recent empirical findings, namely, the negative impact of inequality and the positive effect of redistribution upon growth.
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Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?
TL;DR: This paper surveys a variety of hypotheses and supporting evidence for why some countries benefit and others lose from the presence of natural resources and offers some welfare-based fiscal rules for harnessing resource windfalls in developed and developing economies.
References
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ReportDOI
Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries
TL;DR: For 98 countries in the period 1960-1985, the growth rate of real per capita GDP is positively related to initial human capital (proxied by 1960 school-enrollment rates) and negatively related to the initial (1960) level as mentioned in this paper.
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A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle.
TL;DR: In this article, the parameters of an autoregression are viewed as the outcome of a discrete-state Markov process, and an algorithm for drawing such probabilistic inference in the form of a nonlinear iterative filter is presented.
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Time to build and aggregate fluctuations
TL;DR: In this article, a general equilibrium model is developed and fitted to U.S. quarterly data for the post-war period, with the assumption that more than one time period is required for the construction of new productive capital and the non-time-separable utility function that admits greater intertemporal substitution of leisure.
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A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions
Robert A. Levine,David Renelt +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors study whether the conclusions from existing studies are robust or fragile when small changes in the list of independent variables occur, and they find that although "policy"appears to be importantly related to growth, there is no strong independent relationship between growth and almost every existing policy indicator.
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Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series: Some evidence and implications
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate whether macroeconomic time series are better characterized as stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend or as non-stationary processes that have no tendency to return to the deterministic path, and conclude that macroeconomic models that focus on monetary disturbances as a source of purely transitory fluctuations may not be successful in explaining a large fraction of output variation.