Evaluating the use of “goodness-of-fit” Measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
In this paper, the goodness-of-fit or relative error measures (including the coefficient of efficiency and the index of agreement) that overcome many of the limitations of correlation-based measures are discussed.Abstract:
Correlation and correlation-based measures (e.g., the coefficient of determination) have been widely used to evaluate the “goodness-of-fit” of hydrologic and hydroclimatic models. These measures are oversensitive to extreme values (outliers) and are insensitive to additive and proportional differences between model predictions and observations. Because of these limitations, correlation-based measures can indicate that a model is a good predictor, even when it is not. In this paper, useful alternative goodness-of-fit or relative error measures (including the coefficient of efficiency and the index of agreement) that overcome many of the limitations of correlation-based measures are discussed. Modifications to these statistics to aid in interpretation are presented. It is concluded that correlation and correlation-based measures should not be used to assess the goodness-of-fit of a hydrologic or hydroclimatic model and that additional evaluation measures (such as summary statistics and absolute error measures) should supplement model evaluation tools.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Evaluation of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Air Temperature Data Products
TL;DR: The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) developed by combining simulation models with observations provides a long-term gridded meteorological dataset at the global scale.
Journal ArticleDOI
Evaluation and modeling of scouring and sedimentation around check dams in a Mediterranean torrent in Calabria, Italy
Demetrio Antonio Zema,Giuseppe Bombino,Carolina Boix-Fayos,Vincenzo Tamburino,Santo Marcello Zimbone,D. Fortugno +5 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the effects of check dams on channel morphology of managed torrents are evaluated after many years (i.e., at least four or five decades) of their installation and the capability of the check dams to predict scouring/sedimentation in proximity to these check dams is assessed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Transition from windfall- to patch-driven outbreak dynamics of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus
TL;DR: The results suggest that efficient removal of windfelled trees up until the start of the second summer after a major windfall is important to avoid a transition into a patch-driven bark beetle outbreak that is very difficult to manage.
Journal ArticleDOI
A Spatio-Temporal Enhancement Method for medium resolution LAI (STEM-LAI)
TL;DR: STEM-LAI represents an effective downscaling and temporal enhancement mechanism that predicts in-situ measured LAI better than estimates derived through linear interpolation between Landsat acquisitions, with prediction errors reduced by up to 50%.
Journal ArticleDOI
Application of different data-driven methods for the prediction of total dissolved solids in the Zarinehroud basin
TL;DR: In this paper, four artificial intelligence approaches, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs), two different adaptive-neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) including ANFIS with grid partition (anFIS-GP) and ANFis with subtractive clustering (AN FIS-SC), and gene expression programming (GEP) were applied to forecast TDS in river water over a period of 18 years at seven different sites.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆
J.E. Nash,J.V. Sutcliffe +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the principles governing the application of the conceptual model technique to river flow forecasting are discussed and the necessity for a systematic approach to the development and testing of the model is explained and some preliminary ideas suggested.
Journal ArticleDOI
On the validation of models
TL;DR: In this paper, it is suggested that the correlation coefficieness between observed and simulated variates is not as good as observed variates, and that correlation can be improved.
Journal ArticleDOI
A Leisurely Look at the Bootstrap, the Jackknife, and Cross-Validation
Bradley Efron,Gail Gong +1 more
TL;DR: This paper reviewed the nonparametric estimation of statistical error, mainly the bias and standard error of an estimator, or the error rate of a prediction rule, at a relaxed mathematical level, omitting most proofs, regularity conditions and technical details.