Journal ArticleDOI
Hindsight Bias and Strategic Choice: Some Problems in Learning From Experience
Ed Bukszar,Terry Connolly +1 more
TLDR
In this article, the authors show that knowing eventual outcomes often distorts later reevaluations of initial decisions, and that training in strategic decision making can overcome such bias, in two experiments.Abstract:
Knowing eventual outcomes often distorts later reevaluations of initial decisions. Does training in strategic decision making overcome such bias? In two experiments, advanced strategy students anal...read more
Citations
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Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present and elaborate on past models developed to explain this type of decision making and present a new perspective of naturalistic decision making, which they argue is unproductive since it is so heavily grounded in economics and mathematics.
Posted Content
A Behavioral Approach to Law and Economics
TL;DR: In this paper, a broad vision of how law and economics analysis may be improved by increased attention to insights about actual human behavior is presented, including cognitive and motivational problems of both citizens and government.
Journal ArticleDOI
The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis☆☆☆
TL;DR: A meta-analysis of 122 studies revealed evidence that the bias occurs under some conditions and that its effect can be moderated by a subject's familiarity with the task and by the type of outcome information presented as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
Cognitive biases and strategic decision processes: an integrative perspective*
T. K. Das,Bing-Sheng Teng +1 more
TL;DR: This article explored the presence of four basic types of cognitive bias under five different modes of decision making, including prior hypotheses and focusing on limited targets, exposure to limited alternatives, insensitivity to outcome probabilities and illusion of manageability.
Journal ArticleDOI
Talent management decision making
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors review debates around talent management decision making and identify some future research areas that will inform future decision making in talent management, and present a state-of-the-art review of decision marking.
References
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Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Amos Tversky,Daniel Kahneman +1 more
TL;DR: The authors described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: representativeness, availability of instances or scenarios, and adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available.
Book
Nonparametrics: Statistical Methods Based on Ranks
TL;DR: Rank Tests for Comparing Two Treatments and Blocked Comparisons for two Treatments in a Population Model and the One-Sample Problem as discussed by the authors were used to compare more than two treatments.
Book
Strategies for Change: Logical Incrementalism
TL;DR: This article reviewed the book "Strategies for Change: Logical Incrementalism" by James Brian Quinn and found that it is a good book to read for any learner.
Book
Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis
Graham T. Allison,Philip Zelikow +1 more
TL;DR: A penetrating study of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis examines the workings of American decision-making and foreign policy as mentioned in this paper, and examines the inner workings of the United States' decisionmaking and its foreign policy.
Journal ArticleDOI
I knew it would happen: Remembered probabilities of once—future things
Baruch Fischhoff,Ruth Beyth +1 more
TL;DR: This paper found that participants tended to remember, or reconstruct in the event that they had forgotten, their own predictions some time after the visits were completed and indicated whether or not they thought that each event had in fact occurred.