Journal ArticleDOI
Incorporating frailty in a multi-state model: application to disease natural history modelling of adenoma-carcinoma in the large bowel.
TLDR
Continuous frailty and discrete mover—stayer models were developed and results were compared with those of purely homogeneous models in a previous study in terms of cumulative risk of malignant transformation from adenoma to invasive colorectal cancer.Abstract:
Homogeneous multi-state models of disease progression have been widely used for designing and evaluating cancer screening programs. However, in screening for premalignant conditions of the cervix or large bowel, it is unlikely that all premalignant lesions have the same underlying propensity for progression. Incorporating frailty into multi-state models raises practical difficulties as it precludes the derivation of finite transition probabilities by matrix solution of the Kolmogorov equations. We address this problem by formulating a heterogeneous process as a series of homogeneous processes linked by transitions which are subject to heterogeneity (frailty). Continuous frailty and discrete mover-stayer models were developed. We applied these to the example of progression of adenoma to colorectal cancer in a three-state model and to a five-state model including consideration of adenoma size. Results were compared with those of purely homogeneous models in a previous study in terms of cumulative risk of malignant transformation from adenoma to invasive colorectal cancer.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Clinical Progression of High-Grade Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia: Estimating the Time to Preclinical Cervical Cancer From Doubly Censored National Registry Data
Margaretha A. Vink,Johannes A. Bogaards,Folkert J. van Kemenade,Hester E. de Melker,Chris J.L.M. Meijer,Johannes Berkhof +5 more
TL;DR: Estimated durations of time to cancer are essential for reassessment of the optimal screening interval in light of vaccination and novel screening tests and are developed using Dutch national registries for the years 2000-2005.
Journal ArticleDOI
Predictors of metachronous colorectal neoplasms in sporadic adenoma patients
Lucio Bertario,Antonio Russo,Paola Sala,Paolo Pizzetti,G. Ballardini,Salvatore Andreola,Pasquale Spinelli +6 more
TL;DR: Some features of large bowel adenoma are strongly correlated with an increased risk of metachronous adenomas and colorectal cancer, however, the endoscopic polypectomy is able to reduce by 50% the incidence of CRC in patients with large bowelAdenomas.
Journal ArticleDOI
Frailties in multi-state models: Are they identifiable? Do we need them?
TL;DR: The inclusion of latent frailties in survival models can serve two purposes: the modelling of dependence in clustered data, and explaining lack of fit of univariate survival models, like deviation from the proportional hazards assumption.
Journal ArticleDOI
Setting the Target for a Better Cervical Screening Test: Characteristics of a Cost‐Effective Test for Cervical Neoplasia Screening
Evan R. Myers,Douglas C McCrory,Sujha Subramanian,Nancy McCall,Kavita Nanda,Santanu K. Datta,David B. Matchar +6 more
TL;DR: Policy or technologies that increased sensitivity of cervical cytologic screening increased overall costs, even if the cost of the technology was identical to that of conventional Papanicolaou smears.
Journal ArticleDOI
Mixture distributions in multi-state modelling: Some considerations in a study of psoriatic arthritis
TL;DR: A multi-state model to describe the progression of clinical damage in hand joints of patients with psoriatic arthritis is presented and a mover–stayer model that allows a dependence of the probability of a patient being a stayer on a patient-level explanatory variable is fit.
References
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Sidney J. Winawer,A G Zauber,M N Ho,Michael J. O'Brien,Leonard S. Gottlieb,S S Sternberg,Jerome D. Waye,Melvin Schapiro,John H. Bond,Joel F. Panish +9 more
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Steven J. Stryker,Bruce G. Wolff,Clyde E. Culp,Susan D. Libbe,Duane M. Ilstrup,Robert L. MacCarty +5 more
TL;DR: A retrospective review of Mayo Clinic records from a 6-yr period just before the advent of colonoscopy identified 226 patients with colonic polyps greater than or equal to 10 mm in diameter in whom periodic radiographic examination of the colon was elected over excisional therapy.
Journal ArticleDOI
Survival models for heterogeneous populations derived from stable distributions
TL;DR: In this article, a new three-parameter family of distributions on the positive numbers is proposed, which includes the stable distributions, the gamma, the degenerate and the inverse Gaussian distributions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Trends in mortality from cervical cancer in the nordic countries: association with organised screening programmes
TL;DR: Investigation of time trends in mortality from cervical cancer in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden since the early 1950s supports the conclusion that organised screening programmes have had a major impact on the reduction in mortality in the Nordic countries.
Journal ArticleDOI
Prevalence of nonpolypoid (flat and depressed) colorectal neoplasms in asymptomatic and symptomatic adults.
Roy Soetikno,Tonya Kaltenbach,Robert V. Rouse,Walter G. Park,Anamika Maheshwari,Tohru Sato,Suzanne Matsui,Shai Friedland +7 more
TL;DR: In this group of veteran patients, NP-CRNs were relatively common lesions diagnosed during routine colonoscopy and had a greater association with carcinoma compared with polypoid neoplasms, irrespective of size.