Indirect estimation of a discrete-state discrete-time model using secondary data analysis of regression data.
TLDR
This paper presents an approach that allows the use of published regression data in a multi- state model when the published study may have ignored intermediary states in the multi-state model, called the Lemonade Method.Abstract:
Multi-state models of chronic disease are becoming increasingly important in medical research to describe the progression of complicated diseases. However, studies seldom observe health outcomes over long time periods. Therefore, current clinical research focuses on the secondary data analysis of the published literature to estimate a single transition probability within the entire model. Unfortunately, there are many difficulties when using secondary data, especially since the states and transitions of published studies may not be consistent with the proposed multi-state model. Early approaches to reconciling published studies with the theoretical framework of a multi-state model have been limited to data available as cumulative counts of progression. This paper presents an approach that allows the use of published regression data in a multi-state model when the published study may have ignored intermediary states in the multi-state model. Colloquially, we call this approach the Lemonade Method since when study data give you lemons, make lemonade. The approach uses maximum likelihood estimation. An example is provided for the progression of heart disease in people with diabetes.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Deriving input parameters for cost-effectiveness modeling: taxonomy of data types and approaches to their statistical synthesis.
TL;DR: A taxonomy based on possible scenarios faced by the analyst when dealing with the available evidence is developed that can help modelers identify the most appropriate methods to use when synthesizing the available data for a given model parameter.
Journal ArticleDOI
Chronic disease modeling and simulation software
TL;DR: A new computer tool designed for chronic disease modeling is described and the modeling capabilities of this tool were used to model the Michigan model for diabetes.
Journal ArticleDOI
Use of secondary data to estimate instantaneous model parameters of diabetic heart disease: Lemonade Method
TL;DR: A likelihood approach to correctly model the design of clinical studies under the conditions where 1) the theoretical model may include an instantaneous state of distinct interest to the researchers, and 2) the study design may be such that study data can not be used to estimate a single parameter in the theoreticalmodel of interest.
Dissertation
Methodological issues in the analysis of individual- and aggregate-participant level data for cost effectiveness analysis
TL;DR: In this paper, a taxonomy of the methodological and analytical issues in the use and synthesis of evidence for cost effectiveness modelling is presented, with guidance on appropriate synthesis methodologies to use and identifying areas where further methodological contributions are needed.
PatentDOI
Reference model for disease progression
TL;DR: In this article, reference disease models predict progression of disease within given populations, utilizing publically available clinical data and risk equations, to give a birds-eye view of clinical trials by allowing multiple trials to be systematically compared simultaneously via parallel processing/High Performance Computing which allows competition among alternative equations/hypothesis combinations; cross validation; and, then ranks results according to fitness via a fitness engine.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Impact of Diabetes on Mortality After the First Myocardial Infarction
H. Miettinen,Seppo Lehto,Veikko Salomaa,Mähönen M,M. Niemelä,S. M. Haffner,Kalevi Pyörälä,J. Tuomilehto +7 more
TL;DR: The high mortality rate of diabetic patients after their first myocardial infarction and the high proportion of out-of-hospital deaths in this group imply that vigorous primary and secondary preventive measures should become an integral part of their medical care.
Journal ArticleDOI
A model to estimate the lifetime health outcomes of patients with Type 2 diabetes: the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model (UKPDS no. 68)
Philip Clarke,Alastair Gray,Andrew Briggs,Andrew Farmer,Paul Fenn,Richard Stevens,David R Matthews,Irene M Stratton,Rury R. Holman +8 more
TL;DR: The USPDS Outcomes Model is able to simulate event histories that closely match observed outcomes in the UKPDS and that can be extrapolated over patients’ lifetimes, which should assist in informing future economic evaluations of interventions in Type 2 diabetes.
Journal ArticleDOI
Cost-effectiveness of intensive glycemic control, intensified hypertension control, and serum cholesterol level reduction for type 2 diabetes
Thomas J. Hoerger,Albert D. Bethke,Anke Richter,Stephen W. Sorensen,Michael M. Engelgau,Theodore J. Thompson,K.M. Venkat Narayan,David F. Williamson,Edward W. Gregg,Ping Zhang,Richard C. Eastman,John H. Fuller,Claire Gibbons,S. M. Haffner,William H. Herman,Barbara V. Howard,Robert E. Ratner,Trevor J. Orchard +17 more
TL;DR: Intensive glycemic control and reduction in serum cholesterol level increase costs and improve health outcomes and the cost-effectiveness ratios for these 2 interventions are comparable with several other frequently adopted health care interventions.
Journal ArticleDOI
A taxonomy of model structures for economic evaluation of health technologies
TL;DR: A new taxonomy of model structures is developed, based on key requirements, including output requirements, the population size, and system complexity, for modelling infectious diseases and systems with constrained resources.