Journal ArticleDOI
Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods
TLDR
In this article, the cross spectrum between two variables can be decomposed into two parts, each relating to a single causal arm of a feedback situation, and measures of causal lag and causal strength can then be constructed.Abstract:
There occurs on some occasions a difficulty in deciding the direction of causality between two related variables and also whether or not feedback is occurring. Testable definitions of causality and feedback are proposed and illustrated by use of simple two-variable models. The important problem of apparent instantaneous causality is discussed and it is suggested that the problem often arises due to slowness in recording information or because a sufficiently wide class of possible causal variables has not been used. It can be shown that the cross spectrum between two variables can be decomposed into two parts, each relating to a single causal arm of a feedback situation. Measures of causal lag and causal strength can then be constructed. A generalisation of this result with the partial cross spectrum is suggested.read more
Citations
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ReportDOI
Patent Statistics as Economic Indicators: A Survey
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a survey on the use of patent data in economic analysis, focusing on the patent data as an indicator of technological change and concluding that patent data remain a unique resource for the study of technical change.
Book
Causation, prediction, and search
TL;DR: The authors axiomatize the connection between causal structure and probabilistic independence, explore several varieties of causal indistinguishability, formulate a theory of manipulation, and develop asymptotically reliable procedures for searching over equivalence classes of causal models.
Journal ArticleDOI
Statistics and Causal Inference
TL;DR: In this article, the authors use a particular model for causal inference (Holland and Rubin 1983; Rubin 1974) to critique the discussions of other writers on causation and causal inference.
Journal ArticleDOI
Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II
TL;DR: The authors found that all but one of the U.S. recessions since World War II have been preceded, typically with a lag of around three-fourths of a year, by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum.
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