Mobility restrictions were associated with reductions in COVID-19 incidence early in the pandemic: evidence from a real-time evaluation in 34 countries.
Juhwan Oh,Hwa Young Lee,Quynh Long Khuong,Jeffrey F. Markuns,Chris Bullen,Osvaldo Enrique Artaza Barrios,Seung Sik Hwang,Young Sahng Suh,Judith McCool,S. Patrick Kachur,Chang-Chuan Chan,Soonman Kwon,Naoki Kondo,Van Minh Hoang,J. Robin Moon,Mikael Rostila,Ole Frithjof Norheim,Myoungsoon You,Mellissa Withers,Mu Li,Eun-Jeung Lee,Caroline Benski,Soo Kyung Park,Eun Woo Nam,Katie Gottschalk,Matthew M. Kavanagh,Thi Giang Huong Tran,Jong Koo Lee,S. V. Subramanian,Martin McKee,Lawrence O. Gostin +30 more
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In this article, the authors examined the association between changes in mobility and the ratio of the newly confirmed cases on a given day to the total number of cases over the past 14 days from the index day (the potentially infective 'pool' in that population), per million population, using LOESS regression and logit regression.Abstract:
Most countries have implemented restrictions on mobility to prevent the spread of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), entailing considerable societal costs but, at least initially, based on limited evidence of effectiveness. We asked whether mobility restrictions were associated with changes in the occurrence of COVID-19 in 34 OECD countries plus Singapore and Taiwan. Our data sources were the Google Global Mobility Data Source, which reports different types of mobility, and COVID-19 cases retrieved from the dataset curated by Our World in Data. Beginning at each country's 100th case, and incorporating a 14-day lag to account for the delay between exposure and illness, we examined the association between changes in mobility (with January 3 to February 6, 2020 as baseline) and the ratio of the number of newly confirmed cases on a given day to the total number of cases over the past 14 days from the index day (the potentially infective 'pool' in that population), per million population, using LOESS regression and logit regression. In two-thirds of examined countries, reductions of up to 40% in commuting mobility (to workplaces, transit stations, retailers, and recreation) were associated with decreased cases, especially early in the pandemic. Once both mobility and incidence had been brought down, further restrictions provided little additional benefit. These findings point to the importance of acting early and decisively in a pandemic.read more
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Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries prior to mass vaccination
Vasilis Kontis,James E. Bennett,Robbie M. Parks,Theo Rashid,Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard,Perviz Asaria,Bin Zhou,Michel Guillot,Colin Mathers,Young-Ho Khang,Martin McKee,Majid Ezzati,Majid Ezzati +12 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data to estimate the impacts of the pandemic on weekly all-cause mortality for 40 industrialised countries from mid-February 2020 through mid- February 2021, before a large segment of the population was vaccinated.
Journal ArticleDOI
Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries and US states prior to mass vaccination
Vasilis Kontis,James E. Bennett,Robbie M. Parks,Theo Rashid,Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard,Perviz Asaria,Bing Zhou,Michel Guillot,Colin Mathers,Young-Ho Khang,Martin McKee,Majid Ezzati +11 more
TL;DR: Prior to widespread vaccine-acquired immunity, minimising the overall death toll of the pandemic requires policies and non-pharmaceutical interventions that delay and reduce infections, effective treatments for infected patients, and mechanisms to continue routine health care.
Journal ArticleDOI
Mobility was a significant determinant of reported COVID-19 incidence during the Omicron Surge in the most populous U.S. Counties
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors employed principal component analysis to construct a one-dimensional summary indicator of six Google mobility categories and related this mobility indicator to case incidence among 111 of the most populous U.S. counties during the Omicron surge from December 2021 through February 2022.
Journal ArticleDOI
COVID-19 data are messy: analytic methods for rigorous impact analyses with imperfect data
TL;DR: In this article , the authors describe common challenges in the collection, reporting, and use of epidemiologic, policy, and other data, including completeness and representativeness of outcomes data; their comparability over time and among jurisdictions; the adequacy of policy variables and data on intermediate outcomes such as mobility and mask use; and a mismatch between level of intervention and outcome variables.
Journal ArticleDOI
Coronavirus pandemic in the Nordic countries: Health policy and economy trade-off
Furqan B. Irfan,Raoul Minetti,Ben Telford,Fahad Ahmed,Ayesha Y Syed,N. Hollon,Seth C Brauman,William Cunningham,Mohamed E. Awad,Khaled J Saleh,Akbar K. Waljee,Nele Brusselaers +11 more
TL;DR: There was no trade-off between public health policy and economy during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Nordic region, and Sweden’s relaxed and delayed CO VID-19 health policy response did not benefit the economy in the short term, while leading to disproportionate COvid-19 hospitalizations and mortality.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Association between mobility patterns and COVID-19 transmission in the USA: a mathematical modelling study.
TL;DR: A role of social distancing as an effective way to mitigate COVID-19 transmission in the USA is strongly supported, and behavioural changes were already underway in many US counties days to weeks before state-level or local-level stay-at-home policies were implemented, implying that individuals anticipated public health directives where social Distancing was adopted.
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TL;DR: A strong association is demonstrated between early, sustained, and layered application of nonpharmaceutical interventions and mitigating the consequences of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in the United States and in planning for future severe influenza pandemics.
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