Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.
Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Robert C. Reiner,Oliver J. Brady,Jane P. Messina,Marius Gilbert,David M. Pigott,Dingdong Yi,Kimberly J. Johnson,Lucas Earl,Laurie B. Marczak,Shreya Shirude,Nicole Davis Weaver,Donal Bisanzio,Donal Bisanzio,T. Alex Perkins,Shengjie Lai,Shengjie Lai,Xin Lu,Xin Lu,Xin Lu,Peter A. Jones,Giovanini E. Coelho,Roberta G. Carvalho,Wim Van Bortel,Wim Van Bortel,Cedric Marsboom,Guy Hendrickx,Francis Schaffner,Chester G. Moore,Heinrich H. Nax,Linus Bengtsson,Erik Wetter,Andrew J. Tatem,John S. Brownstein,John S. Brownstein,David L. Smith,Louis Lambrechts,Simon Cauchemez,Catherine Linard,Catherine Linard,Nuno R. Faria,Oliver G. Pybus,Thomas W. Scott,Qiyong Liu,Hongjie Yu,G. R. William Wint,Simon I. Hay,Nick Golding +49 more
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TLDR
It is shown that human movement patterns explain the spread of both Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Europe and the United States following their introduction and predicted the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change.Abstract:
The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases-including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China.
Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Chia-Hung Yang,Bernardo Gutierrez,Bernardo Gutierrez,Chieh-Hsi Wu,Brennan Klein,David M. Pigott,Louis du Plessis,Nuno R. Faria,Ruoran Li,William P. Hanage,John S. Brownstein,John S. Brownstein,Maylis Layan,Maylis Layan,Alessandro Vespignani,Alessandro Vespignani,Huaiyu Tian,Christopher Dye,Oliver G. Pybus,Oliver G. Pybus,Samuel V. Scarpino +23 more
TL;DR: Real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history are used to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures.
Journal ArticleDOI
Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China.
Shengjie Lai,Shengjie Lai,Nick W. Ruktanonchai,Nick W. Ruktanonchai,Liangcai Zhou,Olivia Prosper,Wei Luo,Wei Luo,Jessica R. Floyd,Amy Wesolowski,Mauricio Santillana,Mauricio Santillana,Chi Zhang,Xiangjun Du,Hongjie Yu,Andrew J. Tatem +15 more
TL;DR: A model of the effects of different non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in China suggests that a strategy involving the rapid implementation of a combination of interventions is most effective.
Journal ArticleDOI
The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue
Jane P. Messina,Oliver J. Brady,Nick Golding,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,William Wint,Sarah E Ray,David M. Pigott,Freya M Shearer,Kimberly B. Johnson,Lucas Earl,Laurie B. Marczak,Shreya Shirude,Nicole Davis Weaver,Marius Gilbert,Raman Velayudhan,Peter A. Jones,Thomas Jaenisch,Thomas W. Scott,Robert Reiner,Simon I. Hay +21 more
TL;DR: This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability and provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease.
Journal ArticleDOI
Zika Virus Infection — After the Pandemic
TL;DR: Aedes aegypti is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that can cause congenital defects, including microcephaly, and the virus can be passed to animals through contact chemoreception and sexual transmission.
Posted ContentDOI
Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions for containing the COVID-19 outbreak: an observational and modelling study
Shengjie Lai,Nick W. Ruktanonchai,Liangcai Zhou,Olivia Prosper,Wei Luo,Jessica R. Floyd,Amy Wesolowski,Mauricio Santillana,Chi Zhang,Xiangjun Du,Hongjie Yu,Andrew J. Tatem +11 more
TL;DR: The NPIs deployed in China appear to be effectively containing the COVID-19 outbreak, but the efficacy of the different interventions varied, with the early case detection and contact reduction being the most effective.
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