Journal ArticleDOI
Spectral estimation and time-series extrapolation of prime indicators of society
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In this paper, it is argued that standard DFT analysis is inappropriate for these time series, as is the multiple curve-fitting exercise used to isolate the trends in the data, instead, the spectral analysis has been redone using a method recently developed by the authors that is appropriate to such limited time-series data.About:
This article is published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change.The article was published on 1986-07-01. It has received 6 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Spectral density estimation & Extrapolation.read more
Citations
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Identification and analysis of industry cycles
Hao Tan,John A. Mathews +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on cyclical dynamics at the sectoral level, where cyclical upturns and downturns create essential and unavoidable strategic issues for management, and discuss the fundamentals of industry cycle identification and analysis in both the time domain and the frequency domain with a view to drawing strategic insights.
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The dynamics of primary energy substitution
TL;DR: In this paper, an energy-based dynamic system model of industrial society is developed, which generates intersubstitution of one energy form for another by judicious selection of selected energetic parameters, the historical world primary energy substitution patterns are replicated.
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Four harmonic cycles explain and predict commodity currencies' wide long term fluctuations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the possibility that the Australian dollar is primarily determined by a handful of harmonic cycles which in turn are based not only on commodity prices cycles but also on commodity production cycles and in general on economic cycles.
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Model-based fit procedure for power-law-like spectra
TL;DR: A model-based fit procedure is proposed that performs well on spectra obtained in a molecular dynamics simulation that is based on a simulation of the overall power-law behavior of noise spectra.
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Disentangling the enigma of multi-structured economic cycles - A new appearance of the golden ratio
TL;DR: In this paper, an improved method was proposed to detect the lengths of economic cycles, where Fourier analysis was coupled with GARCH regression, mixed distribution estimation, and harmonic regression, and applied to detect cycles in percentage GDP growth in 25 OECD countries, and in Europe.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
On the use of windows for harmonic analysis with the discrete Fourier transform
TL;DR: A comprehensive catalog of data windows along with their significant performance parameters from which the different windows can be compared is included, and an example demonstrates the use and value of windows to resolve closely spaced harmonic signals characterized by large differences in amplitude.
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Technical change and the rate of imitation
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the factors determining how rapidly the use of a new technique spreads from one firm to another and presented a simple model to help explain differences among innovations in the rate of imitation.
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A simple substitution model of technological change
J.C. Fisher,R.H. Pry +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, a substitution model of technological change based upon a simple set of assumptions has been presented, and the mathematical form of the model is shown to fit existing data in a wide variety of substitutions remarkably well.
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A new algorithm in spectral analysis and band-limited extrapolation
TL;DR: In this paper, a new algorithm is proposed for computing the transform of a band-limited function, which is a simple iteration involving only the fast Fourier transform (FFT), and it is shown that the effect of noise and the error due to aliasing can be controlled by early termination of the iteration.
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The Long Waves in Economic Life
TL;DR: The idea that the dynamics of economic life in the capitalistic social order is not of a simple and linear but rather of a complex and cyclical character is nowadays generally recognized.