Stochastic modelling for predicting COVID-19 prevalence in East Africa Countries.
TLDR
The results showed that in the coming four month, the number of COVID-19 positive people in Ethiopia may reach up to 56,610 from 5,846 on June 30, 2020 in average-rate scenario, however, in worst case scenario forecast, the model showed that the cases will be around 84,497, while the peak will remain unknown yet.About:
This article is published in Infectious Disease Modelling.The article was published on 2020-01-01 and is currently open access. It has received 27 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Population.read more
Citations
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A statistical analysis of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Italy and Spain.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used two simple mathematical epidemiological models, the susceptible-infectious-recovered model and the log-linear regression model, to model the daily and cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in the two countries during the early stage of the outbreak, and compute estimates for basic measures of the infectiousness of the disease including the basic reproduction number, growth rate, and doubling time.
Journal ArticleDOI
Review on socio-economic impacts of 'Triple Threats' of COVID-19, desert locusts, and floods in East Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia
Andualem Kassegn,Ebrahim Endris +1 more
TL;DR: The East Africa region is facing an unprecedented triple socio-economic threat caused by the combined effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the upsurge of desert locusts, and recent severe floods.
Journal ArticleDOI
Machine Learning Model for Computational Tracking and Forecasting the COVID-19 Dynamic Propagation
TL;DR: Experimental results and comparative analysis illustrate the efficiency and applicability of proposed methodology for adaptive tracking and real time forecasting the dynamic propagation behavior of novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Brazil.
Posted ContentDOI
Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the dynamics of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study in the case of Ethiopia
Bedilu Alamirie Ejigu,Manalebish Debalike Asfaw,Lisa Cavaleri,Lisa Cavaleri,Tilahun Abebaw,Mark Nanyingi,Mark Nanyingi,Matthew Baylis +7 more
TL;DR: A modified Susceptible Exposed Infected and Recovered (SEIR) model is proposed to predict the number of COVID-19 cases at different stages of the disease under the implementation of NPIs with different adherence levels in both urban and rural settings of Ethiopia and reveals that the projected number of hospital cases is higher than the Ethiopian health system capacity during the peak time.
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