V-, U-, L- or W-shaped economic recovery after Covid-19: Insights from an Agent Based Model.
TLDR
In this article, the authors discuss the impact of a Covid-19-like shock on a simple model economy, described by the previously developed Mark-0 Agent-Based Model, and show that depending on the shock parameters (amplitude and duration), their model economy can display V-shaped, U-shaped or W-shaped recoveries, and even an L-shaped output curve with permanent output loss.Abstract:
We discuss the impact of a Covid-19-like shock on a simple model economy, described by the previously developed Mark-0 Agent-Based Model. We consider a mixed supply and demand shock, and show that depending on the shock parameters (amplitude and duration), our model economy can display V-shaped, U-shaped or W-shaped recoveries, and even an L-shaped output curve with permanent output loss. This is due to the economy getting trapped in a self-sustained "bad" state. We then discuss two policies that attempt to moderate the impact of the shock: giving easy credit to firms, and the so-called helicopter money, i.e. injecting new money into the households savings. We find that both policies are effective if strong enough. We highlight the potential danger of terminating these policies too early, although inflation is substantially increased by lax access to credit. Finally, we consider the impact of a second lockdown. While we only discuss a limited number of scenarios, our model is flexible and versatile enough to accommodate a wide variety of situations, thus serving as a useful exploratory tool for a qualitative, scenario-based understanding of post-Covid recovery. The corresponding code is available on-line.read more
Citations
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OUP accepted manuscript
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References
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Tipping points in macroeconomic Agent-Based models
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore the possible types of phenomena that simple macroeconomic agent-based models (ABMs) can reproduce and propose a methodology, inspired by statistical physics, that characterizes a model through its phase diagram in the space of parameters.
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Modeling the spread of COVID-19 on construction workers: An agent-based approach.
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Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: An industry and occupation perspective
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The Simple Analytics of Helicopter Money: Why It Works—Always
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Policies for a second wave
TL;DR: It is found that a second round of economic shutdowns alone are neither sufficient nor necessary to avert or quell a second wave of infections and deaths and noneconomic NPIs, such as wearing masks and personal distancing, can mitigate a secondWave while leaving room for an economic recovery.