Showing papers on "Commodity published in 1990"

How Many Plants Feed the World

Abstract: FAO food supply data for 146 countries were analyzed to identify the plant commodities that account for the top 90% of each country's per capita supply of food plants by weighs calories, protein, and fat. The plant commodities were divided into two groups: species commodities, such as “cabbages,” that can be attributed to particular species; and general commodities, such as “hydrogenated oils,” whose species composition is not known. A total of 82 species commodities and 28 general commodities contribute 90% of national per capita supplies of food plants. The 82 species commodities consist of 103 species. Fifty-six of these commodities, comprising 75 species, individually account for 5% or more of at least one county's supply of a nutritional category (plant weight, plant calories, plant protein, plant fag. These figures are several times higher than previous findings that very few (7–30) plant species feed the world. The new figures are considered more accurate because they derive from national supply rather than global production data and from several separate measures of the importance of a food commodity rather than one. The results suggest that (1) plant species diversity remains a significant factor for world food supply; and (2) a conservation priority is to maintain both this wider away of species and the diversity of genetic variants that comprise each species.

The Performance of Publicly Offered Commodity Funds

Abstract: (1990). The Performance of Publicly Offered Commodity Funds. Financial Analysts Journal: Vol. 46, No. 4, pp. 23-30.

Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets

Abstract: The difficulties encountered — in the near term in particular — in analysing the likely supply/demand balance for commodities and currencies cannot be over-emphasised and it is undoubtedly for this reason, as much as any, that techical analysis has long been popular in the commodity markets and has now become an essential tool in the FOREX markets too. A recent Bank of England survey found that by far the vast majority of chief dealers in banks use at least some chartist input. They also found, perhaps to their surprise, that technical analysis was being used as a complementary tool to fundamental analysis; when considered logically this should without doubt be the case since each form of analysis effectively represents one side of the coin. Fundamental analysis is undertaken in an attempt to establish ‘value’, whilst technical analysis rests on the examination of price alone; anyone who has been in the markets for any length of time will recognise that the two are frequently not the same.

The relationship between world price instability and the prices farmers receive in developing countries.

Abstract: World prices for agricultural commodities are traditionally unstable, but they were particularly turbulent during the late 1970s and early 1980s. This paper uses available post-War data on individual commodity prices to test whether world price instability is increasing, and to examine its impact on the prices producers receive in developing countries. It is found that the recent turbulence was more a statistical fluke than the beginning of any longer-term increase in market instability. Further, while the variability in world prices has been almost entirely transmitted to developing countries in the dollar value of their export unit values, it has not been fully transmitted to average producer prices. Real exchange rates, domestic marketing arrangements and government intervention have acted to buffer price movements for producers in many developing countries.

Monopoly, Manipulation, and the Regulation of Futures Markets

Abstract: In the textbook model of competition all buyers and sellers are tiny compared with the market as a whole. These people trade fungible commodities in an ongoing auction. Every seller's product is the same as every other's. All participants in the market are sophisticated. Every buyer continues to purchase so long as the price is less than the value he places on the commodity; every seller continues to sell so long as the price is greater than the marginal cost of production. New buyers and sellers can jump in at an instant's notice, and if they find the going rough they can jump out again. No one can take advantage of a trading partner because someone else will offer the prospective victim a better deal. Information about bids and offers spreads instantly to all participants and would-be entrants. Every beneficial trade takes place. The trading leads to an outcome that is best for each buyer, each seller, and society as a whole. Of course textbook economies occur only in textbooks. It is commonplace to lament the fact that traders are not microscopic compared with the market, traders are gullible, entry and exit

Multilateral reform of domestic taxes

Abstract: THE GOAL of this paper is to contribute to the theoretical literature concerning welfare effects of multilateral tax reforms between a group of nations. The motivation for our study can be found in the current efforts of the European Community to complete the single Community market by the year 1992. In addition to striving toward a joint policy on international trade tariffs, the European Community is committed to reducing trade impediments created by the present widely varying rates and structures of commodity taxation within the Community. It is recognized that not only are the physical border controls associated with the differing national tax systems cumbersome and costly but that, unless an effort to harmonize the Community tax systems is attempted, the Community nations might choose to use commodity taxation instead of trade tariffs to attain unilateral benefits to themselves. Motivation for and objectives and limits of the Community tax reform are discussed in the Report on the Scope for Convergence of a Tax Systems in the Community (1980). Most recent plans are reported in the Commission Plan for Eliminating Tax Frontiers within the Community (1987). The above multilateral effort of commodity tax harmonization calls for theoretical studies clarifying the welfare effects associated with such reforms. Surprisingly, the issue has not attracted much attention in public economics or international trade literature. Some early writers have been concerned with changes in the principles of commodity taxation: whether taxes on international transactions should be based on the destination or the origin principle and how these choices affect consequences of tax harmonization (Whalley (1979), Berglas (1981), Whalley (1981), Dosser (1967), Krauss (1969), Shibata (1969)). Rose (1987), in the spirit of one-nation optimal tax literature, presents optimal coordinated and noncoordinated commodity tax structures for a group of nations. Finally, closest to the present paper, Keen (1987a, 1987b) proves that a joint move toward a weighted average of two nations' commodity tax rates can result in a weak Pareto improvement (a welfare gain in one nation and no welfare change in the other) for these nations, given that international transfers of income between the participants are allowed. The papers of Rose and Keen establish the close connection between the

Modelling commodity flows on trade networks : retrospect and prospect

Abstract: In this chapter we examine various analytical approaches which are pertinent to an important area of research in which, according to Isard and Dean ([30]), regional scientists ought to be more actively involved. This is the estimation of commodity flow (or trade share) matrices across world trade networks. Although spatial variables such as distance, location and transport cost clearly have a significant impact on the quantity and structure of trade, these effects are often ignored or downplayed by international trade economists. Our task is to redress this imbalance partly by strengthening the case for combined spatial interaction-equilibrium approaches to world trade analysis.

The Distribution of Consumer Price Changes in the United Kingdom

Abstract: This paper rejects the hypothesis that relative commodity price changes are normally distributed using monthly U.K. data from 1962 to 1983. The presence of skewness in the distribution of price changes across commodities suggest that the asymmetric price response hypothesis may be a good description of the relation between the moments of the distribution of price changes. The authors use Granger causality tests to investigate this hypothesis, but it is not supported by the data. They also examine the major time-series features of the individual price series. Copyright 1990 by The London School of Economics and Political Science.

Chinese Attitudes Toward Nuclear Weapons: China and the United States During the Korean War

Abstract: In language that is understandable to non-economists, this work introduces readers to the interrelationship of politics and economics in America - how economics influences public policy and how public policy can impact the economy. Readers learn how the U.S. economy works (domestically and in its global connectedness), how to measure economic performance, how government intervenes in the market to influence economic performance and redistribute resources, and how policymakers act to protect the public interest in an economic system based on private interests. The author provides historical background for contemporary problems. He explains basic economic and policymaking concepts in an issue-relevant context, with concrete examples inspired by ongoing policy debates in Washington regarding production and employment, commodity prices, Social Security and Medicare, budget deficits, national debt, trade deficits, and more.

Strategic Initiatives for Introducing CIM Technologies in Irish SME’s

Abstract: Enhancing competitiveness means reducing the production cost as well as the selling price of a commodity. In view of the wider marketing opportunity for all, this means the cost of producing a product and its selling price should be lower than all other competitors. This is, of course, assuming that the goodwill and quality value of the product is comparable. In the global scenario of highly competitive market place, maintaining and enhancing competitiveness necessitate many companies to make increased use of new developments in manufacturing technologies and concepts.

The political economy of u.s. wheat legislation

Abstract: BRUCE A. BABCOCK, COLIN A. CARTER and ANDREW SCHMITZ Both taxpayer subsidies to U.S. wheat producers and domestic deadweight losses increased as a result of the U.S. wheat program adopted in 1985. A calculation of the costs and benefits of alternative wheat policies shows that mandatory production controls with no taxpayer expense could have made wheat producers as well off as the adopted policy. Becker's theory of competition among interest groups and Peltzman's theory of the equilibrium amount of regulation are shown to be consistent with the observed policy choice if the list of affected interest groups includes agricultural input suppliers and grain marketing firms. I. INTRODUCTION Every five years Congress drafts new farm legislation dictating the provisions of commodity programs for cotton and the major food and feed grains for the subsequent five years. From 1973 through 1985 the primary features of the commodity programs were guaranteed farm prices and government stockholding activities. Deadweight losses from the programs, during this time, were minimal. Market prices were generally higher than the government-defended price floors because of a booming export market. Legislated increases in commodity support prices, combined with a severe drop off in the demand for agricultural exports beginning in 1982, increased the economic costs of the commodity programs. The U.S. price floor became the world price for wheat, cotton and corn. Grain stocks accumulated while government payments to U.S. farmers grew to unprecedented levels. Most agricultural interest groups in 1984 agreed that an overhaul of agricultural policy was necessary. Supporters of large levels of production and exports wanted to stimulate the demand for exports by eliminating price floors. Others felt that the United States should reduce budgetary costs by using direct supply controls to raise farm prices. The clear winners in the new 1985 Farm Bill were the proponents of maintained production levels and expanded exports. The new policy froze the relatively high supply prices received by farmers while simultaneously lowering price floors. Becker [1983] argues that two forces mainly determine the outcome of policy debates. The first, following Stigler 1971] and Peltzman [1976], is the relative efficiency with which interest groups exert political pressure. Interest groups that are efficient in exerting political pressure can increase the subsidization (or decrease the tax burden) of their constituents. The second force is the extent of deadweight losses associated with proposed policies. Those policies with lower deadweight losses are, ceteris paribus, more likely to be adopted, for the simple reason that less tax needs to be collected from losing interest groups for given transfers to winning groups. Gardner [1987] finds empirical evidence that both the ability to redistribute efficiently and the effectiveness of political organizations help explain which farm commodities have received the most government support since 1930. His study provides little insight, however, into which force is more important in determining the type of redistribution policies that are ultimately adopted for a given commodity. An examination of the wheat program adopted in the 1985 Farm Bill and alternative policies that were rejected provides an opportunity to determine whether the efficiency of programs or the political prowess of interest groups is more important in determining policy outcomes. This task requires a calculation of the magnitudes and the distribution of costs and benefits of the chosen policy and alternative policies. Costs and benefits are calculated for: (1) a continuation of the 1981 Farm Bill policies through 1986-1990; (2) the adopted 1985 Farm Bill policies; and (3) mandatory production controls. All three alternatives are examined relative to a laissez faire policy whereby the U.S. government has no direct involvement in agriculture. …

The making of the European Community's wheat policy 1973-88 : an international political economy analysis

Abstract: This thesis examines the political and economic changes in the domestic and international organization and operation of the European Community Common Agricultural Policy for wheat during 1973-88. Its purpose is to demonstrate the opportunities and constraints in the agricultural talks in the Uruguay Round of the GATT begun in 1986. An international political economy approach is adopted to bring into prominence the key security, production, finance, and technology power structures and to demonstrate how these transformed the interlocking and overlapping set of bargains that determined policy. The thesis shows that throughout the 1970s the EC wheat price policy concentrated on supporting farm incomes, and this neither required nor permitted an external policy beyond measures to dispose of surpluses. In the 1980s, however, prices were increasingly directed by market conditions. This reorientation was caused by shifts in the structures surrounding the wheat system. These weakened the pan-European farm lobby, and a patchwork of new agreements evolved between policy makers, commodity groups, and non-farm lobbies to support an active rather than defensive export policy. Consequently, the EC set specific commercial goals for the Uruguay Round of the GATT which makes it a formidable and active participant in the negotiations. In contrast, during the Tokyo Round in the 1970s the Community had adopted a strongly defensive and obstructionist posture to protect its domestic system. Examination of the agricultural trade negotiations between 1984 and 1988 confirms that the other participants have not recognized these transformations. The thesis concludes that the Uruguay Round could fail, and the GATT could be seriously impaired, unless negotiators acknowledge the transformed bases of the new EC wheat po1icy.

Commodity concentration and export earnings instability: the evidence from african countries

Abstract: export earnings.1 The empirical evidence on the relationship between commodity concentration and export instability appears inconclusive.2 However, de spite the empirical evidence, the view that commodity concentration results in export earn ings instability still persists among policy makers as evidenced by their export diversifica tion efforts and it is also a familiar argument in international forums on trade [Adams and

Uncertainty, Incomplete Markets and Government Farm Programs

Abstract: Although economists have exhaustively studied the effects of commodity price stabilization programs,' research on other common government agricultural policies, including target price programs, production controls and consumer price ceilings, has generally been restricted to nonstochastic settings.'2,3 In an earlier paper [19], I have studied one of the latter policies in a stochastic environment, obtaining qualitative reversals in the distributional and welfare conclusions that are reached under certainty. The policy analyzed in Innes [19] is a target price/deficiency payment program which pays farmers any positive difference between the target price and the prevailing market price for their output. Under certainty, this program benefits producers, hurts consumers (as taxpayers), and causes a net (Harberger triangle) welfare loss. In a stochastic environment with incomplete contingent claim markets, all of these conclusions can be reversed: producers can be made worse off, consumers better off, and society better off. These qualitative effects emerge under conditions that are characteristic of developed countries' staple food markets, namely, low price and income elasticities of demand and farmer risk aversion. Taking the latter results as a point of departure, this paper posits a Diamond [10]-type closed economy model with stochastic production, incomplete contingent claim markets, and rational agents; using this model, it investigates the welfare implications of a combined target price/production control policy.4 Perhaps more importantly, evidence is presented on the prospective quan-

Rational expectations and commodity price forecasts

Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to take a new look at the commodity market (CM) price forecasts in light of recent investigations. The CM forecasts are similar in nature to the survey expectations in that both solicit market experts' opinions about future price developments. However, there are important differences: CM forecasts are more of the consensus-type forecasts than survey data and deal with physical goods that are subject to different risks and constraints. The characteristics of the CM forecasts are reviewed in relation to the futures prices of the same commodities. This paper also estimates the alternative expectational models and tests the rationality of the expectational behavior.

Alternative instruments for smoothing the consumption of primary commodity exporters

Abstract: Countries that depend on a single primary export for their foreign earnings are likely to experience sharp fluctuations in export earnings and their underlying wealth, because of the instability of all primary commodity markets. As part of structural adjustment, several countries have liberalized their trade regimes, so domestic producers are no longer insulated from international price fluctuations. This paper concentrates on the management of country-level consumption risk, and considers actions which the government might undertake to reduce the cost of that risk. The paper reviews the costs of export price instability, with some reference to the empirical magnitudes. It considers the role of conventional instruments, including loans, price stabilization measures, and futures contracts. Particular attention is paid to the potential use of futures rollovers for longer-term price protection, and the effect of production response on that protection. The paper also discusses"commodity bonds"and dynamic consumption smoothing paths and offers conclusions.

A Redefinition of Luxuries, Necessities, and Engel Goods: An Analysis of Egyptian Household Budget Data

Abstract: The Egyptian economy has been undergoing rapid transformation in the past few decades. The role of consumer behavior in this process of transformation is extremely crucial. A changing pattern of demand might have serious implications for trade and growth strategies in development. The role of prices and appropriate pricing policies have been given considerable importance in the building of strategies for economic development in Egypt. This necessitates an examination of the structure of demand. Commodity composition of the consumer basket varies with prices and income. Thus, it follows that pragmatic policy decisions, especially with respect to tax and subsidy reforms, require knowledge of price and expenditure elasticities. The Egyptian government in both the past and the present has pursued various programs in the form of price and income policies to promote consumer welfare among other objectives of development. In the absence of any systematic study of consumer behavior these policies could not be based on any firm estimates of price and expenditure elasticities. This paper represents the first attempt to provide systems estimates of consumer-demand behavior in Egypt. It reports estimates based on

ECONOMICS OF FOOD AND SAFETY: Risk, Information, and the Demand and Supply of Health

Abstract: A model of expected utility maximization and a stochastic health production function are used to show how consumer's beliefs, the certainty of beliefs, and the presence of information affects demand for goods as they are driven by the demand for health. Then, it is shown that competitive markets fail to account for the health implications of substances in the production of a commodity that affects health, nor are incentives provided to inform consumers of substance concentrations and its implications to health. This result is shown to not necessarily follow in concentrated industries. Finally, conditions are derived whereby a benevolent government, in the absence of rent seeking, chooses optimal levels of information and taxes to attain Pareto optimal outcomes.

Commodity checking device for commodity collecting system

Abstract: PURPOSE:To shorten the commodity checking time by checking mechanically and number of commodities to be delivered for each item. CONSTITUTION:A deciding means D decides the overs or shorts of commodities to be delivered to the due destination for each item based on the reading frequency of each code of the commodities in a container which are read by a code reading means A and the unit number data on each item to the due destination received from a host controller B. Then an output means E outputs the deciding result for each commodity. In this case, the commodity codes and the number of overs and shorts if detected are delivered. As a result, the manual check of the commodities to be delivered can be substantially automated. Thus the commodity checking time is shortened.

Commodity sales data processor

Abstract: PURPOSE:To attain accurate tax management appropriate for the operation of a shop by proportionally correcting the contents of tax included memory and a tax-added memory in accordance with a discount corresponding to the sort of a commodity to be discounted. CONSTITUTION:The total amount of tax-free commodities, the total amount of tax-added commodities and the total amount of tax-included commodities are respectively accumulatively stored in a tax-free total memory RA4, a tax 1 commodity total memory RA2 and a tax 2 commodity total memory RA3 in each input. When a subtotal key is depressed, a subtotal flag F1 is set up to '1'. When a discount key is depressed, a proportional selection flag F3 is discriminated when the flag F1 is '1', and if the flag F1 is '10', all commodities are to be discounted and their corresponding taxes are corrected. When the flag F1 is '01', only the tax commodity is discounted and the corresponding tax amount is corrected. When the flag F3 is '00', only the commodities to be discounted are discounted and their corresponding tax amount is corrected.

To hedge or not to hedge

Abstract: This article examines the evolution of natural gas into the commodities market and what gas utilities and regulators need to understand about the commodities market to be able to assess this new market. The topics addressed include the evolution of natural gas as a commodity, futures contracts, hedges and speculation, accounting for futures contracts, assessing the potential for hedging, and regulatory policy.

World agricultural trade reform: implications for Australia.

Abstract: In this paper we assess the implications of agricultural trade reform by GATT member countries. To do this, we link two general equilibrium models, a world food trade model and the ORANI model of the Australian economy. By treating the ORANI model as an integral part of the world model, we are able to focus on the implications for Australia of world agricultural trade reform. The findings suggest that, if price distorting agricultural policies were removed by GATT member countries, world food commodity prices would rise, some by up to 30 per cent, and world food trade expand by about a third. Australia would be a major beneficiary of these international developments, the value of its agricultural exports rising by close to 15 per cent. In 1986, this would have meant for Australia additional export earnings of around SUS750 million, as well as more rapid economic growth.

Time Varying Risk Premia in Futures Markets

Abstract: This paper undertakes an econometric investigation into the presence of risk premium in commodity futures markets. The statistical tests are derived from a formal model of asset pricing and are applied to futures prices in a variety of commodity markets. The results suggest that for several commodities there is evidence of a time varying risk premium, particularly in futures contracts maturing six months ahead. The implications of the study for the efficiency of the futures markets and the costs of using these markets for hedging are also noted.

Decision analysis models of futures options purchase decisions

Abstract: Decision analysis models can provide powerful insights about the relationships between variables in the futures/options purchase decision. These variables include the decision-maker's risk attitude, assessed price distribution, options conditions and price. This paper structures the ‘put’ option purchase decision faced by decision-makers (as price takers) who consider using the options market to modify their risk profile. Such models can be used to evaluate options as a form of commodity price insurance.

Government policies and economic analysis of the livestock commodity system in Indonesia.

Abstract: Indonesian Penelitian ini merupakan suatu usaha untuk meneliti keunggulan komparatif dan tingkat perlindungan/beban ekonomi untuk beberapa komoditas bahan baku pakan dan peternakan. Analisis keunggulan komparatif dilakukan dengan mempergunakan konsep rasio sumberdaya domestik, sedang tingkat perlindungan/beban ekonomi diukur dengan tingkat perlindungan nominal, tingkat perlindungan efektif dan subsidi implisit. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa produksi jagung di Indonesia lebih menguntungkan apabila dipakai untuk memenuhi kebutuhan domestik. Produksi kacang kedele di Jawa Barat ternyata tidak efisien. Kacang kedele mempunyai keunggulan komparatif apabila dihasilkan di Jawa Tengah dan di luar Jawa. Ubikayu dan beras mempunyai keunggulan komparatif yang tinggi di seluruh Indonesia. Produksi susu sangat tidak ekonomis. Sedangkan produksi daging sapi, babi dan ayam ras mempunyai keunggulan komparatif yang tinggi. Produksi telur lebih menguntungkan untuk konsumsi dalam negeri. Produksi telur mempunyai daya saing ekspor jika dihasilkan di Lampung dan Bogor. Struktur perlindungan komoditas secara umum tidak konsisten dengan efisiensi produksi komoditas. Insentif ekonomi cenderung bias untuk petani di Pulau Jawa. English This study is an investigation on comparative advantage and economic incentives of some major feed-stuffs and livestock products. The comparative advantage is analyzed using the domestic resource cost ratio criterion, whereas, economic incentive is measured using the nominal and effective protection rates, and implicit subsidy. The study shows that the corn production in Indonesia would be more beneficial economically if used domestically. The soybean production in West Java is not economical. The soybean only has comparative advantage if produced in Central Java and the islands outside Java. Cassava and rice have comparative advantage wherever they are produced. The dairy farming is highly uneconomical. Whereas beef, pork, and broiler productions are highly competitive, even for exportation. The egg production is more beneficial for domestic consumption. The egg production is competitive for exportation if produced in Lampung and Bogor. The commodities protection structures are generally in consistent with their economic efficiency configuration. The economic incentives are generally biased toward Java.

Time Varying Risk Premia in Futures Markets

Abstract: This paper undertakes an econometric investigation into the presence of risk premium in commodity futures markets. The statistical tests are derived from a formal model of asset pricing and are applied to futures prices in a variety of commodity markets. The results suggest that for several commodities there is evidence of a time varying risk premium, particularly in futures contracts maturing six months ahead. The implications of the study for the efficiency of the futures markets and the costs of using these markets for hedging are also noted.