Showing papers on "Cost effectiveness published in 1976"

Economic Analysis of Projects

Abstract: A general approach to economic analysis of projects is presented, including the basic notions of cost-benefit analysis in the context of project analysis. A systematic and consistent estimation and application of shadow prices is needed, and suggestions are made for incorporating distributional effects, as well as the customary efficiency components, into shadow prices. Social rates of return can then be calculated, taking into account the distributional impact of various projects, an aspect ignored in the usual economic rates of return as derived from efficiency prices. Shadow prices are derived to reflect a wide range of economic conditions and value judgments concerning basic policy objectives pertaining to growth and distribution. Uncertainty, sensitivity, and risk must also be evaluated in project analysis. An appendix addresses the technical derivation of shadow prices.

Filters with Single Transmission Zeros at Real or Imaginary Frequencies

Abstract: A new unified theory is presented for the synthesis of exactly equiripple low-pass prototypes having: a) one simple pole of attenuation at a real frequency; or b) a single pair of real-axis transmission zeros (giving linear-phase performance). These types of filters may be regarded as representing the least possible degree of complication over the conventional Chebyshev filter, and are usually realized with one extra cross coupling in the structure. It is demonstrated that this gives much improved skirt selectivity in the case of a finite frequency pole, making it a viable intermediate case between the Chebyshev and elliptic function filters, while in the case of real-frequency zeros, very flat group delay over 50 percent of the passband is achieved with minimal cost in insertion loss and skirt rejection. Approximate and exact synthesis techniques are described, including results for the previously neglected odd-degree case. Experimental results demonstrate agreement with theory.

Solar Heating and Cooling.

Abstract: We have adequate theory and engineering capability to design, install, and use equipment for solar space and water heating. Energy can be delivered at costs that are competitive now with such high-cost energy sources as much fuel-generated, electrical resistance heating. The technology of heating is being improved through collector developments, improved materials, and studies of new ways to carry out the heating processes. Solar cooling is still in the experimental stage. Relatively few experiments have yielded information on solar operation of absorption coolers, on use of night sky radiation in locations with clear skies, on the combination of a solar-operated Rankine engine and a compression cooler, and on open cycle, humidification-dehumidification systems. Many more possibilities for exploration exist. Solar cooling may benefit from collector developments that permit energy delivery at higher temperatures and thus solar operation of additional kinds of cycles. Improved solar cooling capability can open up new applications of solar energy, particularly for larger buildings, and can result in markets for retrofitting existing buildings. Solar energy for buildings can, in the next decade, make a significant contribution to the national energy economy and to the pocketbooks of many individual users. very large-aggregate enterprises in manufacture, sale, and installation of solar energy equipment can result, which can involve a spectrum of large and small businesses. In our view, the technology is here or will soon be at hand; thus the basic decisions as to whether the United States uses this resource will be political in nature.

Economy, Efficiency, and Equality: The Myths of Rural School and District Consolidation.

Abstract: The most successfully implemented educational policy of the past fifty years has been the consolidation of rural schools and school districts. One-room, multi-graded elementary schools have been eliminated in favor of larger, many-roomed, age-graded schools. Small rural high schools have been closed down, and new, centrally located schools built to which most students are bused. Small school districts have merged with neighboring ones and larger schools have been built within the new district. The chapter reviews the evidence and discusses consolidation's popularity even in the absence of solid and reliable supporting evidence. The evidence focuses primarily on school size and its relationship to cost and quality. It is not at all clear that the reorganization has brought the economy, efficiency, and equality so desired. Symbols of modernization such as new schools, sophisticated equipment, and more credentialed teachers were believed to be important in and of them.

Multi-Criterion Ranking of Alternative Long-Range Water Resource Systems

Abstract: The definition and comparison of alternative water resource systems designed to meet long-range goals (say 60 years) is illustrated by a case study in Hungary. A comprehensive cost-effectiveness approach is adapted to define goals, specifications, criteria, alternatives and their capabilities. Specifications include demands given in probabilistic terms. The comparison of alternative systems is based on 12 criteria, one of which is the balance between total energy consumed and peak energy produced. Important factors involving social elements, such as flood protection and land and forest use, are described both as monetary quantities and as qualitative appreciations. Five alternative systems are defied involving flat land reservoirs, pumped storage reservoirs, interbasin transfer, and conjunctive use of surface and ground water. International cooperation is then used to rank systems and reduce the problem to a tradeoff between only two alternatives.

Limits to Exploitation of Nonrenewable Resources.

Abstract: Nonrenewable resources consist of geochemical concentrations of naturally occurring elements and compounds that can or may be exploited at a profit The ultimate limit to exploitation of earth resources then is the limit of net energy profit (or work savings) When it takes more energy to find, recover, process, and transport the fossil fuels than can be gotten from them in useful form, there will be no more oil, gas, or coal resources When it takes so much energy or work to produce a nonenergy material that one must sacrifice other, more needed, items or services to pay for it, there will be no more resources of that material Short of the energetic limit, one or both of two other limits may intervene First is the limit of comparable utility A resource is a resource only while it can be used to perform a function desired by man better or more cheaply than can another substance If the energy cost of an earth resource such as crude oil rises to a level at which another substance, such as synthetic crude oil from coal, can be substituted in adequate volume at a lower cost for comparable utility, substitution will take place,more » with the first resource reverting to a mere geochemical anomaly and the source of the replacing substance becoming a resource The limit to a resource also may be determined by the unwillingness of society to pay the cost of its exploitation, even through an energy surplus (or saving) might be obtained thereby A modern decision to forgo the calculable energy benefits of the breeder-reactor power plant would again invoke this limit of living-level degradation, a limit that comes into play when a society is not willing to pay the total costs of production--because so doing would, it is judged, lower the level of living more than would forgoing use of the resource 33 references (MCW)« less

Design and performance of an air collector for industrial crop dehydration

Abstract: Abstract Test results are reported for the operation of unglazed and single-glazed solar collectors used to heat air to the 90°C (194°F) range. The collectors were constructed of standard black-painted metal decking and were tested in various lengths so that pressure drops and convective heat transfer rates could be varied independent of collector operation temperature. It is shown that the experimental collector performance results with single pass operation are in substantial agreement with standard collector analysis procedures. These results give a firm basis for collector and system optimization.

Manpower Planning with Uncertain Requirements

Abstract: This paper examines a longitudinal model of a manpower system. The demand for effective manpower is determined by the state of a finite Markov chain. There are delays in training effective manpower, and effective manpower is an input to the training process. Thus it is not always available to meet demand. We present an operational method for calculating optimal accession policies. This calculation can in turn be used to find the equilibrium operating rules for the system. The model is a useful device for measuring the impact of alternate assumptions about continuation rates, manpower utilization policies, demand levels, and transition probabilities in the demand process.

Wind energy statistics for large arrays of wind turbines (New England and Central US regions)

Abstract: Abstract The performance characteristics have been simulated for large dispersed arrays of 500–1500 kW wind turbines producing power and feeding it directly into the New England or Central U.S. utility distribution grids. These studies, based on design power performance curves, indicate that in good wind environments the 500 kW generators can average (on an annual basis) up to 240 kW mean power output, and the 1500 kW generators can average up to 350 kW mean power output. Higher mean power output (averaging up to 470 kW) is indicated, however from a hypothetical 1125 kW rated power unit designed to operate at wind speeds near those observed throughout the study area, rather than the higher design operating wind speed of the 1500 kW unit. The beneficial effect of operating large disperse arrays of wind turbines is that available power output can be increased—if winds are not blowing over one part of the array, chances are they will over some other part of the array. These studies indicate that wind power availability levels of 200 kW per 1125 kW generator were 77–93 per cent, depending on season. Reasonably steady high wind power in winter and high afternoon peak wind power in summer (corresponding to peak air conditioning load) means that significant peak load displacement can be achieved without the use of storage.

Combustion Measurements in Air Breathing Propulsion Engines. Survey and Research Needs

Abstract: —The current measurement needs of the jet engine combustion engineers and scientists are considered. An assessment is made of the potential of probe and optical technologies to meet them. In the first part, the available instrumentation are evaluated and compared for the following criteria: non-interfering access to the flow, specificity, accuracy, sensitivity, space and time resolution, and cost effectiveness. The flow properties of interest are: velocity, pressure, temperature and the components of the flow (N2, O2, CO2, H2O, CO, NO, NO2, OH, THC's and smoke). In the second part, the different needs of the development engineer, the combustor researcher and the fundamental combustion scientist are established separately. Desirable levels of measurement criteria are proposed for all three situations. Several experiments are suggested.

Geothermal energy as a source of electric power : thermodynamic and economic design criteria

Abstract: The resource base and its potential environmental impact are assessed. Power cycle and resource utilization efficiencies are described with empirical equations and correlations. Detailed cycle calculations performed with seven representative working fluids that were selected to illustrate a range of molecular properties are presented. Turbine and pump design criteria are discussed. An economic model is developed based on separate cost equations or correlations for the major power plant components and geothermal wells. It is concluded that geothermal power generating costs can compete with the present escalated fossil-fuel and nuclear generating costs, and that geothermal resources are large enough to have an impact on our energy economy. (MHR)

Bioconversion of agricultural wastes for pollution control and energy conservation

Abstract: The combination of concerns for energy shortages and pollution control has renewed interest in the possibility of generating energy from organic wastes. This report is a comprehensive study of the feasibility of generating a substitute natural gas on U. S. dairies (40 and 100 cows) and beef feedlots (1000 head) using the anaerobic fermentation process. The feasibility in technical, economic and practical terms is estimated. Excluding energy use in manufacture of equipment and farm chemicals, the total energy use on 40 and 100 cow dairies, and 1000 head feedlots were estimated to be 164 x 10/sup 6/, 307 x 10/sup 6/, and 670 x 10/sup 6/ kcal per year, respectively. The estimated maximum annual methane energy that could be generated on these operations was estimated as 216 x 10/sup 6/, 473 x 10/sup 6/, and 2280 x 10/sup 6/ kcal, respectively. Thus, a dairy farm in northern New York could produce more energy than it consumes, and a feedlot could produce more than 3 times the quantity consumed. The estimated costs of generating methane on 40 and 100 cow dairies and on a 1000 head beef feedlot were $22.80, $13.40, and $4.50 per 10/sup 6/ kcal. Detailed analyses of themore » three operations estimated that the actual costs for utilization would increase to $80, $39, and $11 per 10/sup 6/ kcal for specific operations, respectively. Farms with more than 100 cows can begin to consider the technology as an income producing operation. It is therefore concluded that anaerobic fermentation of agricultural wastes has significant potential and should receive increased attention.« less

The Value of an Education.

Abstract: the early 1960s, economists advanced the idea that education was a significant economic investment increasing both the financial well-being of the state and the individual. During the sixties many studies were conducted quantifying the benefits accruing from enhancement of the nation's human capital through education, and educational proponents utilized this concept to justify greater governmental appropriations. More recently, though, the concept has faded somewhat from the forefront of the educational funding debate and has been used only sparingly by education advocates. This paper reviews the development of the investment concept, analyzes some of its strengths and weaknesses, and cites recent data bearing directly on the desirability of further educational investment. A substantial portion of the paper is devoted to identifying educational benefits which are not commonly recognized and because they are difficult to quantify are not usually included in economic analyses assessing the value of an education. The economics of education first came into focus as a legitimate source of economic enquiry in T. W. Schultz's presidential address to the American Economic Association in 1960 in which he observed

Toward a Dynamic System of Driver Improvement Program Evaluation

Abstract: A number of prior driver improvement research studies are reviewed. The evidence indicates that traffic violations are reduced, at least temporarily, by a variety of driver improvement techniques. The evidence for accident reduction is more equivocal, although a few relatively well-designed studies have reported statistically significant accident reduction. It is argued that the statistical and psychological aspects of accidents prohibit high correlations and large treatment effects. The methodological shortcomings of past driver improvement research are discussed, and the research design characteristics of an optimum evaluation system are outlined. An evaluation system currently under construction in California fulfills most of these optimum characteristics, such as built-in experimental replication, randomized treatment assignment, timely on-line computer-generated effectiveness measures, high statistical power, and cost benefit modeling. One of the major methodological issues in past evaluation efforts...

The laser isotope separation program at lawrence livermore laboratory

Abstract: The projected demand for enriched uranium will exceed the projected supply from existing facilities in the mid-1 980’s. Beyond that point, if n o improvements in technology are made, a greater than 3 billion dollar gaseous diffusion plant will have t o be brought on line every 18 months. The development of tuneable narrow band lasers has opened the prospect of large scale laser isotope separation (LIS) a t a fraction of the gaseous diffusion power and capital equipment costs. This talk will present an overview of the Livermore LIS program as it looks today by describing some of the research projects completed in the past year or actively contemplated, in the sense that equipment is in hand or under construction, for the next. Given the large number of photoprocesses that can potentially separate isotopes, the challenge is t o assemble a data base of fundamental cross sections so that the feasible schemes can be culled from the unlikely ones.

Cost-effectiveness of two methods of screening for asymptomatic bacteriuria.

Abstract: A comparison of two methods of screening schoolgirls for asymptomatic specimens of urine from 96.3, but that the home self-administered use of dipslides was successful in only 70.2%. The failure to obtain the return of satisfactory dipslides was most frequent in children under seven and over 11 years of age, and in children from the lower social classes; satisfactory dipslides were returned by 84% of children from social classes I, II, and III non-manual workers, but by only 58% of children from social class V and the unemployed. The cost per child screened was pounds 0.77 with the supervised method and pounds 0.26 with the dipslide method. An alternative supervised method which would have successfully screened 85% would have cost pound 0.55 per child screened. Using the home dipslide method, the cost per case of asymptomatic bacteriuria detected would vary from pounds 10.40 to pounds 20.00, depending on the age group screened.

Evolution of the satellite solar power station /SSPS/ concept

Abstract: Orbital solar power plants are considered from the viewpoint of technology and costs in terms of photovoltaic conversion, baseline configuration, microwave reception and power generation, transportation, assembly, and maintenance. The economics and development program for the OSPP are briefly discussed. (WDM)

Operating experience with bulb units at the rance tidal power plant and other French hydro-power sites

Abstract: A brief review of large bulb unit development in France since 1957 is followed by a detailed description of the Rance tidal power plant and a summary of other French bulb unit plants, mainly located on the Rhone and Rhine Rivers. Operating results are summed-up and the performance of present operational bulb units analysed, including a discussion of the principal operating difficulties experienced and how they have been overcome. The report ends with an appraisal of the main advantages and drawbacks of bulb units compared to conventional Kaplans, and a few words on future development.