Showing papers on "Deterrence theory published in 2021"
TL;DR: In this article, a randomized controlled trial evaluates the impact of this intervention on compliance behavior and finds that friendly approaches, such as a simple reminder of deadlines, are more effective than deterrence.
Abstract: In early 2016, the Rwanda Revenue Authority sent 9,000 taxpayers messages aimed at encouraging compliance. Each taxpayer was randomly allocated to a treatment group or a control group that received no message. Treatment messages varied in terms of content (deterrence, fiscal exchange, or reminder) and delivery method (letter, email, or SMS). Our randomized controlled trial evaluates the impact of this intervention on compliance behavior. We find that friendly approaches—especially a simple reminder of deadlines—are more effective than deterrence. We also provide suggestive evidence that deterrence messages produce a backfiring effect among higher-income taxpayers, while they have the expected effect for the rest.
19 citations
04 Feb 2021
TL;DR: The end of 2015 witnessed a global record in the number of forcibly displaced people fleeing because of wars and persecution The unprecedented total of 653 million displaced individuals, out of a total population of 1.2 billion, were out of the world population of 7.5 billion as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The end of 2015 witnessed a global record in the number of forcibly displaced people fleeing because of wars and persecution The unprecedented total of 653 million displaced individuals, out of w
16 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that understanding how nuclear capabilities, signalling and nuclear declarations are used to understand how nuclear capability is used in Russian nuclear strategy is not limited to making sense of Russian nuclear capabilities.
Abstract: Contemporary debates on Russian nuclear strategy focus on making sense of Russia’s nuclear capabilities, signalling and nuclear declarations. This paper argues that understanding how nuclear capabi...
16 citations
01 Aug 2021
TL;DR: The authors argue that strategic non-nuclear technology will increasingly shape the nuclear order, particularly in relation to questions of stability and risk, and advocate for an urgent reassessment of the way nuclear order and nuclear risks are conceptualised as we confront the challenges of a Third Nuclear Age.
Abstract: Three decades after what is widely referred to as the transition from a First to a Second Nuclear Age, the world stands on the cusp of a possible Third Nuclear Age where the way that we conceptualise the central dynamics of the nuclear game will change again. This paradigm shift is being driven by the growth and spread of non-nuclear technologies with strategic applications and by a shift in thinking about the sources of nuclear threats and how they should be addressed, primarily, but not solely, in the United States. Recent scholarship has rightly identified a new set of challenges posed by the development of strategic non-nuclear weaponry (SNNW). But the full implications of this transformation in policy, technology and thinking for the global nuclear order as a whole have so far been underexplored. To remedy this, we look further ahead to the ways in which current trends, if taken to their logical conclusion, have the capacity to usher in a new nuclear era. We argue that in the years ahead, SNNW will increasingly shape the nuclear order, particularly in relation to questions of stability and risk. In the Third Nuclear Age, nuclear deployments, postures, balances, arms control, non-proliferation policy, and the prospects for disarmament, will all be shaped as much by developments in SNNW capabilities as by nuclear weapons. Consequently, we advocate for an urgent reassessment of the way nuclear order and nuclear risks are conceptualised as we confront the challenges of a Third Nuclear Age.
13 citations
TL;DR: The stationing of US nuclear weapons in Europe is a pillar of NATO deterrence as discussed by the authors, despite their growing contestation, scholarly research on contemporary attitudes of both voters and political elites to the deployment of nuclear weapons has been conducted.
Abstract: Stationing of US nuclear weapons in Europe is a pillar of NATO deterrence. Despite their growing contestation, scholarly research on contemporary attitudes of both voters and political elites to th...
13 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that at times the economic benefits of illicit financial activity outweigh the costs of litigation and suggest that financial activity could be reimagined taking into account intrinsic and prosocial motivations.
Abstract: Financial misconduct has come into the spotlight in recent years, causing market regulators to increase the reach and severity of interventions. We show that at times the economic benefits of illicit financial activity outweigh the costs of litigation. We illustrate our argument with data from the US Securities and Exchanges Commission and a case of investment misconduct. From the neoclassical economic paradigm, which follows utilitarian thinking, it is rational to engage in misconduct. Still, the majority of professionals refrain from misconduct, foregoing economic rewards. We suggest financial activity could be reimagined taking into account intrinsic and prosocial motivations. A virtue ethics framework could also be applied, linking financial behavior to the quest for moral excellence and shared flourishing. By going beyond utilitarian thinking and considering alternative models, we offer a fuller account of financial behavior and a better perspective from which to design deterrence methods.
12 citations
TL;DR: Based on game payoff matrixes, this article proposed a system dynamics model to present the deterrence of punitive measures, namely the certainty of punishment (CoP) and the severity of punishment(SoP), on regular bidders' to-collude decision-making.
Abstract: Collusive bidding has been a deep-seated issue in the construction market for a long time. The strategies implemented by bid riggers are deliberate, interactive, and complex, suggesting that antitrust authorities have difficulty preventing collusive behaviors. Based on game payoff matrixes, this study proposes a system dynamics (SD) model to present the deterrence of punitive measures, namely the certainty of punishment (CoP) and the severity of punishment (SoP), on regular bidders’ to-collude decision-making. Data were collected from the Chinese construction industry to test the proposed SD model. While the model was supported, the results indicate that the CoP has a greater impact than the SoP on deterring regular bidders from making to-collude decisions. Furthermore, these two punitive measures cannot be replaced by each other, given the same deterrence effects. Thus, the study demonstrates the usefulness of deterrence theory to inhibit collusive bidding in the construction sector. It also sheds some light on the formulation of competition policy from the perspective of deterrence.
12 citations
Book•
30 Apr 2021
TL;DR: The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (2017) sets out to challenge deterrence policies and military defence doctrines, taking a humanitarian approach intended to disrupt the nuclear status quo as mentioned in this paper. But states with nuclear weapons oppose its very existence, neither participating in its development nor adopting its final text.
Abstract: The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (2017) sets out to challenge deterrence policies and military defence doctrines, taking a humanitarian approach intended to disrupt the nuclear status quo. States with nuclear weapons oppose its very existence, neither participating in its development nor adopting its final text. Civil society groups seem determined, however, to stigmatize and delegitimize nuclear weapons towards their abolition. This book analyzes how the Treaty influences the international security architecture, examining legal, institutional and diplomatic implications of the Treaty and exploring its real and potential impact for both states acceding to the Treaty and those opposing it. It concludes with practical recommendations for international lawyers and policymakers regarding non-proliferation and disarmament matters, ultimately noting that nuclear weapons threaten peace, and everyone should have the right to nuclear peace and freedom from nuclear fear.
11 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyze a three-stage game of entry deterrence in which the incumbent has incomplete information about the entrant's costs but can increase this cost by resorting to unfair means (e.g., bribing a politician who harms the Entrant) and completely characterize the optimal bribe and show that this depends on the fairness index and the differentiation parameter.
Abstract: In many emerging economies incumbent firms often use dubious means to deter entry of other firms. We analyze this scenario in a three‐stage game of entry deterrence. The incumbent has incomplete information about the entrant's costs but can increase this cost by resorting to unfair means (e.g. bribing a politician who harms the entrant). We completely characterize the optimal bribe and show that this depends on the “fairness index” and the “differentiation” parameter. We also show that zero bribes need not maximize welfare and market quality. Our results seem to be compatible with anecdotal evidence from emerging economies such as India.
11 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that some scholars and practitioners are unconvinced that cyber deterrence is possible and demonstrate why some of this skepticism is misplaced, as well as provide greater clarity and clarity.
Abstract: Many scholars and practitioners are unconvinced that cyber deterrence is possible. This article aims to demonstrate why some of this skepticism is misplaced, as well as provide greater clarity and ...
10 citations
TL;DR: This paper examined the effect of managers' leadership on information security compliance intentions in the hotel industry and provided important strategic guidelines for by informing hotel managers that ethical leadership should be practiced as a means of enhancing employees' information security policy compliance.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focus on the interaction of an incumbent leader, an elite who can seize power, and a separate country wanting to maintain a peaceful status quo, and show that while deterrence is successful when leaders are perfectly secure, it breaks down when they are insecure because hawks can escape punishment and doves use the threat of international conflict to quell internal challenges.
Abstract: We focus on the interaction of an incumbent leader, an elite who can seize power, and a separate country wanting to maintain a peaceful status quo. Both leaders and elites are distinguished between hawks, who benefit from conflict, and doves, who prefer peace. We show that while deterrence is successful when leaders are perfectly secure, it breaks down when leaders are insecure because hawks can escape punishment and doves use the threat of international conflict to quell internal challenges. These deterrence failures have important implications for various foreign policy positions that conceptually rely on the logic of deterrence.
TL;DR: The governmental responses to the COVID-19 pandemic include concerns for both public health and formal social control as discussed by the authors, and government leaders asked the public to help mitigate the spread of the virus b...
Abstract: The governmental responses to the COVID-19 pandemic include concerns for both public health and formal social control. Government leaders asked the public to help mitigate the spread of the virus b...
TL;DR: The conventional wisdom among strategists and historians of strategy has long held that stability was inherent to the logic of rational nuclear deterrence as mentioned in this paper, but the conventional wisdom has been shown to be mistaken.
Abstract: Among the most important ideas in Cold War nuclear strategy and arms control was that of “stability”—the notion that by protecting weapons for use in retaliation, the superpowers would be less likely to fight a thermonuclear war. Conventional wisdom among strategists and historians of strategy has long held that stability was inherent to the logic of rational nuclear deterrence. This essay shows the conventional wisdom to be mistaken. It examines the technical practice of Thomas Schelling, who introduced the stability idea in a classic 1958 paper. Celebrated as a game theorist, Schelling was actually trained as a Keynesian macroeconomic modeler during the second half of the 1940s. In 1958, he used Keynesian techniques to frame deterrence as a stable system of dynamic adjustment, akin to the stable macroeconomic system he had modeled as a young economist. Among Schelling's fellow strategists, stability quickly became popular as a rationalization for their preferred nuclear deployment policies.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore the relationship between deterrence theory and counterinsurgency as a particular framework of governance, one that emphasizes the targeting of coercive action against a population in order to immobilize an adversary.
TL;DR: The People's Liberation Army Strategic Support Force (PLASSF) as mentioned in this paper will enhance the Chinese military's future deterrence and war-fighting capabilities and enhance the PLA's future capability.
Abstract: The People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force (PLASSF) will enhance the Chinese military’s future deterrence and war-fighting capabilities. Established in December 2015, this new force is po...
TL;DR: A unique model combining classical and extended deterrence theory, as well as prominent non-legal factors was created, and the variables were able to explain 41% of the variance in speeding behaviour.
TL;DR: In this paper, a primary motivation for forming military alliances is to deter adversaries, but some alliances are more effective at deterrence than others. Deterrence theory suggests that an alliance may fa...
Abstract: A primary motivation for forming military alliances is to deter adversaries. However, some alliances are more effective at deterrence than others. Deterrence theory suggests that an alliance may fa...
01 Jan 2021
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors take the starting point that the power to deter consists of three components: (physical) capacities, concepts (strategy, plans, decision-making procedures) and will (moral, determination, audacity).
Abstract: This chapter takes the starting point that the power to deter consists of three components: (physical) capacities, concepts (strategy, plans, decision-making procedures) and will (moral, determination, audacity). In case one of these components is underdeveloped or not in place, (coercive) power fails. Modern technologies (e.g. ICT, AI) and strategic insights (e.g. the utility of soft and smart power) urge for a reinterpretation of the ‘physical’ component, and include cyber capacities as well as culture, knowledge or law(fare) as capacities (or power instruments), too. Moreover, and taking cyber capabilities as a test case, these developments put even more weight on the conceptual and moral components of power. This chapter focusses on the legal framework as a key, but underrated, conceptual element of deterrent power. Using cyber threats as a case, it offers a legal framework enabling decision-makers to effectively generate deterrent power by showing which legal bases (should) undergird the employment of the variety of responses available to States. In democratic rule-of-law States, the principles of legitimacy and legality demand that the use of power (instruments) by States must be based on a legal basis and should respect other institutional features too. Through two illustrative vignettes the generic value of the framework will be illustrated for the potential use of power instruments—diplomacy, information, military, economy, culture, legal, knowledge—in its various modalities, including cyber operations. This legal framework, though tailored to cyber capabilities, may be used as a starting point for conceptualising the legal framework for so-called cross domain and cross dimensional, or full spectrum deterrence.
TL;DR: This article found evidence of spillover effects across contexts using a quasi-experiment and identified fraudsters and non-fraudsters on public transport who were or not exposed to ticket inspections by the transport company and measured the intrinsic honesty of the same persons in a new, unrelated context where they could misappropriate money.
Abstract: Deterrence institutions are widely used in modern societies to discourage rule violations but whether they have an impact beyond their immediate scope of application is usually ignored. Using a quasi-experiment, we found evidence of spillover effects across contexts. We identified fraudsters and non-fraudsters on public transport who were or not exposed to ticket inspections by the transport company. We then measured the intrinsic honesty of the same persons in a new, unrelated context where they could misappropriate money. Instead of having an expected educative effect across contexts, the exposure to deterrence practices increased unethical behavior of fraudsters but also, strikingly, of non-fraudsters, especially when inspection teams were larger. Learning about the prevailing norm is the most likely channel of this spillover effect.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the second-order effects of orbital debris removal and propose some solutions to mitigate the weakening of deterrence in the event that debris removal becomes a reality.
TL;DR: In response to North Korea's nuclear weapons program, South Korea is quietly pursuing an independent conventional counterforce and countervalue strategy as discussed by the authors, which is unique among non-neighborhood countries.
Abstract: In response to North Korea's nuclear weapons program, South Korea is quietly pursuing an independent conventional counterforce and countervalue strategy. This strategy is unique. Few, if any, nonnu...
TL;DR: In this paper, the impact of quantum sensing on strategic deterrence and modern warfare is examined, and the authors argue that quantum sensing investment, research, and development should be prioritized within the Department of Defense's quantum science modernization agenda to ensure that the U.S. military does not cede technological advantage to competitors such as the People's Republic of China, who are actively investing in quantum sensing applications that could upend the United States’ existing deterrence and warfighting capabilities.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a case study design to generate a multi-faceted understanding of the possible avenues for evaluation research on the law enforcement-based strategy known as the Group Violence Intervention.
Abstract: This paper is designed to critically review and analyze the body of research on a popular gang reduction strategy, implemented widely in the United States and a number of other countries, to: (1) assess whether researchers designed their evaluations to align with the theorized causal mechanisms that bring about reductions in violence; and (2) discuss how evidence on gang programs is generated and consumed. That review and assessment is then used to frame a research agenda for studying gang interventions.,A case study design is used to generate a multi-faceted understanding of the possible avenues for evaluation research on the law enforcement-based strategy known as the Group Violence Intervention. The paper discusses questions that remain to be answered about the strategy, such as “what type of deterrence is operating?” and if the model actually works by the threat of deterrence, and not by removing high-risk offenders and shootings from the street, what activities are needed to maintain the effect?,Across roughly two dozen impact evaluations of GVI, none have examined the likely cause and effect components of this multi-partner strategy in reducing the violence. Furthermore, there are many issues related to the production and generation of criminal justice evaluation research that have adversely pushed the balance of evidence on what works in gang reduction toward law enforcement programming. However, there are many strategies that researchers can use to think broadly about appropriate and holistic research and evaluation on gangs and gang programming.,The recommendations for research, if implemented, can help build a body of knowledge to move toward community-based and restorative models of gang violence reduction.,This original piece is one of the first essays to contextualize and discuss how aspects of the production of social science research on gangs may directly impact what programs and strategies are implemented on the ground.
01 Jan 2021
TL;DR: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is back in the business of deterring aggression on the part of Russia, and the most convincing posture for NATO has become one of deterrence by punishment, building on a fairly dynamic military ability to strike Russia at a point of choosing, as opposed to defending every entry point to Alliance territory as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is back in the business of deterring aggression on the part of Russia. This return to great power deterrence has brought widely acknowledged military challenges related to power projection, force modernization, and burden sharing but also and notably a political challenge of defining NATO’s collective political ambitions for a continental order in which Russia will not become like the West. Like during the Cold War, the most convincing posture for NATO has become one of deterrence by punishment, building on a fairly dynamic military ability to strike Russia at a point of choosing, as opposed to defending every entry point to Alliance territory. However, NATO, not sure of what political order it represents, struggles to read Russia’s political character and intent and size its military posture accordingly. NATO’s political deficit effectively robs it of a middle ground from where it can build its military posture and invest in its upkeep. In the 1960s, NATO forged such a middle ground as an essential platform for strategic adaptation; today, NATO’s full deterrence posture is suffering from the absence of such a middle ground. Thus, a comprehensive politico-military posture of deterrence vis-a-vis Russia will require NATO’s reengagement with its own political fundamentals.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the effect of experience with regulatory enforcement on fraud in a unique natural setting and find that drivers who are found guilty (not guilty) are more likely to commit fraud than similar drivers without recent taxi court experience.
02 Jun 2021
TL;DR: In this article, a cross-sectional and correlational study was conducted to establish whether all the dimensions of regulatory compliance matter for environmental sustainability practices of manufacturing small and medium entrepreneurial ventures using evidence from Uganda.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to establish whether all the dimensions of regulatory compliance matter for environmental sustainability practices of manufacturing small and medium entrepreneurial ventures (SMEVs) using evidence from Uganda.,This study is cross-sectional and correlational. Data was collected through a questionnaire survey of 106 manufacturing SMEVs. Data was analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 23.,The results indicate that controls, legitimacy and deterrence do matter for environmental sustainability practices of the manufacturing SMEVs in Uganda, unlike social norms and values.,This study fosters the understanding of environmental sustainability practices, as it provides insights on whether all the dimensions of regulatory compliance do matter for environmental sustainability practices of manufacturing SMEVs in Uganda.
TL;DR: In this article, information security has come to the forefront as an organizational priority since information systems are considered as some of the most important assets for achieving competitive advantages, and the importance of information systems is emphasized.
Abstract: Information security has come to the forefront as an organizational priority since information systems are considered as some of the most important assets for achieving competitive advantages. Desp...
24 Nov 2021
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present nine deliberative workshops to expose stakeholders to futures scenarios involving mitigation deterrence, and suggest ways of governing greenhouse gas removals which would maximize both GGR and carbon reduction through other means.
Abstract: Concerns have been raised that a focus on greenhouse gas removals (GGR) in climate models, scientific literature and other media might deter measures to mitigate climate change through reduction of emissions at source – the phenomenon of ‘mitigation deterrence’. Given the urgent need for climate action, any delay in emissions reduction would be worrying. We convened nine deliberative workshops to expose stakeholders to futures scenarios involving mitigation deterrence. The workshops examined ways in which deterrence might arise, and how it could be minimised. The deliberation exposed social and cultural interactions that might otherwise remain hidden. The paper describes narratives and ideas discussed in the workshops regarding political and economic mechanisms through which mitigation deterrence might occur, the plausibility of such pathways, and measures recommended to reduce the risk of such occurrence. Mitigation deterrence is interpreted as an important example of the ‘attraction of delay’ in a setting in which there are many incentives for procrastination. While our stakeholders accepted the historic persistence of delay in mitigation, some struggled to accept that similar processes, involving GGRs, may be happening now. The paper therefore also reviews the claims made by participants about mitigation deterrence, identifying discursive strategies that advocates of carbon removal might deploy to deflect concerns about mitigation deterrence. We conclude that the problem of mitigation deterrence is significant, needs to be recognised in climate policy, and its mechanisms better understood. Based on stakeholder proposals we suggest ways of governing GGR which would maximise both GGR and carbon reduction through other means.
TL;DR: This paper explored situated strategies for minimizing the risk of police arrest in a street-level drug market recruited through snowball sampling in Uyo, Nigeria, and highlighted four broad strategies: selling to genuine buyers, using mobile phones, discreet transactions, and temporary desistance.
Abstract: Drawing on semi-structured interviews with 31 male commercially-oriented retail dealers selling multiple substances in a street-level drug market recruited through snowball sampling in Uyo, Nigeria, this study explores situated strategies for minimizing the risk of police arrest. Findings highlight four broad strategies: selling to genuine buyers, using mobile phones, discreet transactions, and temporary desistance. These strategies are situated within local drug markets and law enforcement context. Strategies were oriented towards avoiding arrest for criminal complicity, negotiating changing relationship to law enforcement, and reducing visibility through a combination of phone calls and delivery services. It is argued that while restrictive deterrence may displace retail drug dealing, it does not lead to overall reduction in frequency of sales. Further, police complicity in drug trade through bribery limits restrictive deterrence. Measures that prioritize the demand-side of drug markets, including treatment for dependent users, should be considered, while refocusing law enforcement on large-scale traffickers.