Showing papers on "Economic interdependence published in 1999"

Assessing the Liberal Peace with Alternative Specifications: Trade Still Reduces Conflict*

Abstract: Some recent analyses challenge previous reports which show that economically important trade significantly reduces the probability of militarized disputes between countries. Beck et al. (1998) address the effect of temporal dependence in the time-series data on empirical support for the liberal peace, while Barbieri (1998) makes a number of important changes in theoretical specification and measurement. Using data for nearly the entire post-World War II era (1950-92), we first replicate the specifications of the challengers. When analyzing all dyads, we find no relationship between interdependence and peace, but the pacific benefits of trade become evident among the politically relevant dyads (those including a major power, or two contiguous states), among whom the great majority of disputes occur. Subsequently, we introduce, in stages, an alternative method of controlling for temporal dependence, our theoretically preferred measures of interdependence and proximity, and new dyadic estimates for unreported trade. With these sequential modifications we find increasingly strong support for the liberals' belief that economic interdependence and democracy have important pacific benefits. This support is largely robust to the methods of controlling for temporal dependence and to whether an attempt is made to explain involvement in disputes or merely their onset. We find no evidence that asymmetric trade increases conflict.

The Kantian Peace: The Pacific Benefits of Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations, 1885-1992

Abstract: The authors test Kantian and realist theories of interstate conflict using data extending over more than a century, treating those theories as complementary rather than competing. As the classical liberals believed, democracy, economic interdependence, and international organizations have strong and statistically significant effects on reducing the probability that states will be involved in militarized disputes. Moreover, the benefits are not limited to the cold war era. Some realist influences, notably distance and power predominance, also reduce the likelihood of interstate conflict. The character of the international system, too, affects the probability of dyadic disputes. The consequences of having a strong hegemonic power vary, but high levels of democracy and interdependence in the international system reduce the probability of conflict for all dyads, not just for those that are democratic or dependent on trade.

Globalization and Peace: Assessing New Directions in the Study of Trade and Conflict

Abstract: 'Globalization' has largely superseded the term 'economic interdependence' to describe the rapidly growing links between nations, economies, and societies. The effects that the internationalization of the world system has on social equality, the environment, and economic growth are, however, still largely disputed. In this article, we discuss the literature that covers another intensively debated issue and which attempts to assess the relationship between trade and interstate conflict. Although liberal economists maintain that economic interdependence exerts an unconditionally pacifying influence on interstate relations, we show that the most recent formal work expects that trade will have a negligible and, in the perspective of one important model at least, even an amplifying effect on conflict. Much empirical work, by contrast, supports the claim that the relationship between trade and conflict is direct and not mitigated by contextual factors. We review the different controversies on the link between economic interdependence and militarized disputes and outline some major challenges that have not yet been adequately dealt with in the scientific study of war and peace.

Sleeping with the Enemy: The Impact of War on Trade:

Abstract: Current debates over the question of whether economic interdependence promotes peace or contributes to international conflict are often framed in terms of the 'paradigm wars' between liberal and realist theory. In spite of their differences, most liberal and realist theories of interdependence and conflict agree that trade and other forms of economic interchange between societies will cease or be substantially reduced once states are engaged in serious forms of conflict with each other, particularly after the outbreak of war. Liberal theories generally assume that political leaders are deterred from engaging in conflict when they anticipate that conflict will disrupt or eliminate trade or adversely affect the terms of trade, so the hypothesis that trade deters war rests on the assumption that war impedes trade. Realist theories suggest that the concern over relative gains will lead at least one of the belligerents to terminate trade in order to prevent its adversary from using the gains from trade to increase its relative military power. Contrary to these predictions, there are numerous historical examples of trade between adversaries that continues during wartime. Our aim here is to examine this phenomenon more systematically by conducting an empirical analysis of the short-term and long-term impact of war on trade for seven dyads in the period since 1870. Applying an interrupted time-series model, we find that in most cases war does not have a significant impact on trading relationships. Although war sometimes leads to a temporary decline in the level of dyadic trade, in most instances war has no permanent long-term effect on trading relationships and, in fact, trade often increases in the postwar period. This empirical anomaly in both liberal and realist theories of interdependence and conflict leads us to conclude that both theories need to be reformulated.

Is the liberal peace just an artifact of cold war interests? Assessing recent critiques

Abstract: Recent research indicates that democracy and economic interdependence reduce the probability that a pair of states will engage in a militarized interstate dispute. These analyses were largely confined to the cold war era, however, leading some to argue that the results are an artifact of the particular bipolar configuration of alliances and interests characteristic of that period. To determine whether this is so, we present two sets of analyses here. First, with new trade data for sixteen countries, 1870–1989, we use logistic analysis of cross‐sectional and time‐series data to test whether democracy and economic openness (total exports as a proportion of gross domestic product) had the same conflict‐reducing effects before World War II as after. We find they did, while the effect of alliances is weak. Moreover, our theoretical model offers a plausible explanation of the outbreak of World War I that is consistent with the liberal peace. Second, for the cold war era, we address the question of whether state...

International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission in ASEAN

Abstract: This study investigates the international transmission of business cycles among the ASEAN countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, and between the ASEAN nations and their major trading partners, the United States, Australia, Japan, and the European Union. The research uses trade flows to show the pattern of economic interdependence, and principal components analysis, vector autoregressions, and spectral analysis to explore the possibility of a unique ASEAN business cycle. Binational VARs are used to examine the relative impacts of each country upon the others. Spectral analysis is used to check for the possibility of “mode-locking” between the countries that may serve to bring about some synchronization. Interestingly, there is evidence of the existence of a specific ASEAN regional business cycle. However, the VARs give only weak evidence of transmission of business cycles among the ASEAN economies and between the ASEAN economies and their major trading partners. The apparent weakness of the transmission is explained by the fact that commodity price fluctuations, wars, and major political disturbances, due to the process of nation-building, have interrupted the natural generation of business cycles, dominated the interdependence effects between nations, and hindered the measurement of international business cycle transmission. J. Japan. Int. Econ., September 1999, 13(3), pp. 230–253. Department of Economics, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia 23529 Copyright 1999 Academic Press. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F41, F47, E32.

Power Ties: Economic Interdependence, Balancing, and War

Abstract: Will the growth of economic interdependence since the Second World War help to maintain the peace that we have seen for more than fifty years among the great powers? Some argue that the benefits that come from being integrated into today's world economy make it unlikely that countries will pursue aggressive policies. Others are not so sanguine, arguing that international economic ties have little effect on the making of national security strategies."Power Ties" contradicts both arguments. Analyzing the history of the great-power system since the late nineteenth century, Paul Papayoanou shows that international economic relations have a significant impact on states's security strategies. A great power's economic ties generate powerful domestic economic interests that influence a leader's ability to mobilize support and resources for credibly opposing threatening powers in the international system. This accounts for the strength or weakness of alliance commitments and defense expenditures, and in turn, the likelihood that aspiring revisionist powers will be deterred from initiating a military offensive that upsets the territorial status quo. "Power Ties" also revises much of the conventional wisdom about the pacifying effects of economic interdependence, for it demonstrates that extensive economic ties are not necessarily associated with peace and can make war more likely.Papayoanou's union of theory and history provides a bold new interpretation of the most significant developments in international politics over the past century. This book will be of interest to students and scholars of political science, history, and international relations.Paul Papayoanou is Assistant Professor of Political Science and Assistant Adjunct Professor, Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego.

Trading on inequality: Gender and the drinks trade in southern Tanzania

Abstract: This article explores the economic logic of the domestic drinks market and its place in the subsistence strategies of men and women in a rural district in southern Tanzania where womens brewing coexists with mens monopolisation of the sap alcohol markets. The seasonal availability of sap alcohols combined with the districts integration into national grain markets creates a short-lived opportunity for some women to supplement their income from the production and sale of maize beer an opportunity made possible by the unequal economic interdependence of men and women and of different regions of Tanzania. The seasonal expansion of the market in maize beer occurs at a time when maize prices are high and household grain stocks spent or minimal. Brewers must choose between their immediate consumption needs and investing their small reserves of cash or grain in beer production in the hope that it will generate longer-term profit. As in other parts of Tanzania this choice is idiomatically expressed through the contrast between eating (kulia) and generation (zalisha) through which grain and the money to which it is explicitly compared can be made to reproduce itself through careful investment. (excerpt)

International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination: Any Lessons for EMU? A Selective Survey of the Literature

Abstract: The theoretical case for international coordination was well established, and presumed settled, in the 1970s. In the mid-1980s, the focus of research shifted to intertemporal aspects of economic interdependence. In the early 1990s, the subject no longer generated as much interest among economists as it might have deserved from an economic policy perspective. With EMU, the topic of coordination has once again found its way onto the political and scientific agenda. In fact, the EMU regime not only raises a number of new and important questions concerning policy coordination, it might also be interpreted as a surrogate for far-reaching forms of policy coordination. At the same time, more ambitious forms of coordination are confronted in any case with coordination constraints imposed by the EMU – regime itself, such as the independence provision of the ESCB and the supreme monetary policy goal of maintaining price stability. Without doubt, economists' and political scientists studies on coordination will not be suited to serve as blueprints of policy coordination for policymakers to follow at summit meetings. But even if the key question - how much relevance the abundant literature on coordination may hold for the “real world” – could not be answered definitely, it – at least – provides useful analytical insights in the structure of coordination problems. And an improved analytical understanding of macroeconomic interaction is a necessary prerequisite for more successful efforts at policy coordination.

Asia-Pacific security : the economics-politics nexus

Abstract: Notes on ContributorsAbbreviationsPreface and AcknowledgmentsIntroduction - Stuart Harris and Andrew Mack1. Economics and National Security: The Evolutionary ProcessRichard Rosecrance2. From National to Human SecurityRamesh Thakur3. The Declining Probability of War Thesis: How Relevant for the Asia-Pacific?James L. Richardson4. Democracy and Security in the Post-Cold War EraHarries-Clichy Peterson, Jnr5. Security and Interdependence in East AsiaCharles E. Morrison6. Economics, Security and Northeast AsiaRobert A. Scalapino7. Economic Interdependence and China's National SecurityYou Ji8. Economic Rivalry and Security Linkages in US-Japan RelationsGreg Austin9. Japan's Economic SecurityYoshihide Soeya10. Transforming the Asia-Pacific's Strategic Architecture: Transport and Communication Platforms, Corridors and OrganisationsPeter J. Rimmer and Claude Comtois11. 'Western' versus 'Asian' Capitalism:

A strategic overview of goods movement in the greater toronto area

Abstract: The development of urban areas is closely integrated with the form and structure of local and regional transportation systems. Improvements in transportation efficiency have been catalysts in both the definition of urban form and the siting and conduct of industry and commerce. Recently, there has been greater appreciation of the role of transportation and logistics with regard to the economic interdependence of regions, the cost of goods and services, and the productivity and competitiveness of firms and communities.

Russian Regions as International Actors

Abstract: The international activities of subnational units in the Western countries are deeply rooted in their political cultures and institutional structures. For example, it is common for U.S. states to have their offices abroad or for regions of Canada, Switzerland, Germany, and Belgium to have strong international contacts of their own. It is natural considering that most of the Western states were formed as "associative federations," that is to say, their federal structures were based on pre-existing autonomous political units. This is not the case with the Russian Federation, which is actually being formed on a dissociative basis, that is, a formerly unitary state is going through a painful process of decentralization and devolution of authorities. This distinction makes nascent patterns of international activity by Russian regions intriguing for scholars and deserving of deeper attention. Between Regionalism and Globalism: Theoretical Background The study of regions within the wider international ambit has political, economic, social, and cultural relevance. One can see what is local in the global, and what is global on the local level. It also sheds light on the domestic sources of foreign policy in Russia, as well as the evolution of federalism in this huge democratizing nation. In addition, in this article, I will offer some insights on the structure of Russian international relations. The contemporary world is characterized by paradoxical trends. Internationalization is in progress as national governments respond to an expanding range of international linkages, economic interdependence, and the demands of policy issues, which can no longer be managed within the framework of individual political systems. At the same time, there is a growing alertness on the part of subnational interests, both governmental and nongovernmental, to those pressures.(1) Underpinning those trends are two developments that both reflect and help to explain them: the expanding agenda of foreign policy and the diminishing distinctions between domestic and foreign policy. Traditional distinctions between "high" and "low" politics appear far removed from reality. When subnational units establish links with their foreign counterparts, they represent a true departure from the traditional concept in which the conduct of all international relations was the exclusive domain of the central government. The most important driving forces for economic regionalization come from markets, private trade and investment flows, and the policies of companies. Regionalization is therefore often conceptualized in terms of "complexes," "networks" "flows" or "mosaics." Yet patterns of regionalization do not necessarily coincide with the borders of states. Migration, markets, and social networks may lead to increased interaction and interconnectedness, tying together parts of existing states and creating new cross-border regions. The core of such "transnational regionalism" might be economic (as in the development of industrial corridors, or networks linking major industrial centers), or it can be built around a high level of human interpenetration.(2) At one level, therefore, the international economy is becoming increasingly integrated, even though many individual polities are becoming more and more fragmented. And that relates to another causal factor in foreign policy localization, namely, the frequent inability of modern governments to manage the political systems and satisfy the demands generated within them. State sovereignty is weakening. It cannot maintain its ordering of social life across the endless play of multiple forces of fragmentation and integration.(3) Desire by localities to become involved in ever-larger sectors of public policy reflects the fact that national governments often find it impossible to serve community interests from a single center of power. In countries where the national government is ineffective in dealing with the concerns of subnational communities, provincial or local governments have been asserting themselves. …

From Three-Deckers to Film Rights: A Turn in British Publishing Strategies, 1870-1930

Abstract: In his 1985 Panizzi lectures, D. F. McKenzie claimed for bibliographers a new and wider role. They should, he said, look at "the construction of new texts and their forms" to examine "the human and institutional dynamics of their production and consumption."' In disciplines from literary to media studies, he observed a shift toward the study of "dissemination and readership as matters of economic and political motive and of the interaction of text and society as an important source of cultural history." One aspect of this contemporary movement has been the burgeoning of studies of literary adaptations to the big and small screen and, more broadly, intertextuality across media. Today we are familiar with news headlines that announce "record deals" between publishers and authors for novel and film rights and with the sight of film tie-ins in the best-seller lists. In this article I shall examine the origins of the sale of such rights and explore the relationship between Victorian publishers' book-publishing strategies and the techniques they later used to market film options on their novels. When the economic interdependence between novel publishers and the libraries began to fail in Britain in the 1880s, a newly competitive marketplace arose. Shrewd publishers looked to their strengths and developed innovative publishing strategies to exploit them. Many factors affected their

An Economy in Transition

Abstract: Looking back to the period of the Cold War and before, one can see that it was characterised not only by political tension and by the arms race, but was also reflected in the economic relations between East and West. Trade relations between Russia and the West were always conditioned by the reluctance of the Soviet Union to entertain closer commercial links with the West, particularly with the United States. It was one of the factors that motivated Stalin to accelerate the process of industrialisation. This also had military significance in allowing the USSR to develop its arsenal of weaponry and consequently to strengthen its defence capabilities. It was a major reason for Russia’s quest for self-sufficiency and economic independence, sometimes bordering on autarky. Under Stalin’s rule the economic objective of industrialisation was to be achieved as far as possible without dependence on Western economies. Any economic interdependence with the West was regarded as an attempt by the capitalist world to achieve political and economic domination. The Marshall Plan which at first received a favourable reaction from Poland and Czechoslovakia, was perceived by the Soviet Union as an attempt to detach some of the East European states from the Soviet sphere of influence. It was denounced as trying ‘. . . to restore the power of imperialism in the countries of the new democracy and force them to abandon their close economic and military collaboration with the Soviet Union . . . to form a bloc of states linked to the United States’ (Claudin, 1975, p. 469).

Interlocking Global Business Systems: The Restructuring of Industries, Economies and Capital Markets

Abstract: Introduction Regional Trade and Investment A Time Series Perspective on the Endogenous Growth Model: NIEs, and ASEAN's Experience by Xinpeng Xu Diversifying Taiwan's Economic Ties Toward Southeast Asia and Away from Mainland China An Early Appraisal of the "Go South" Strategy by Peter J. Morton A Global Business and Economic Interdependence between the United States and the European Union by Ioannis N. Kallianiotis Asian Businesses and the European Union: Strategies to Meet the Challenges Aheadd by Nabil A. Ibrahim and John P. Angelidis Internationalizing Capital Markets Merging But Different, Emerging Markets Persist by Edward D. Flowers Pricing U.S. Exchange-Traded Hong Kong Index Warrants by K.C. Chen Accounting and Taxation of Stock Options in Korea by Chang-Soo Kim The Shortage of Financial Skills in China by Laura Nowak and Kurt Dew International Financial Operations Exchange Rates and the Operating Income Performance of Foreign-Based Multinational Corporations by Laurence J. Mauer Money Laundering with a Focus on Banking and Finance by Teresa de Los Rios and Edward B. Flowers The Diverse World of Local Economics and Finance Sources of Funds for Taiwanese Investments in Mainland China and Southeast Asia by Ya-Hwei Yang, Yenpao Chen and Ying-Yi Tu Entrepreneurship Development in Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises by Anna Ai-Ai Kuo and Wuu-Long Lin The Impact of Housing Characteristics on Real Estate Values: An Empirical Study in Taiwan, ROC by Jane C. Sung and Jason J. Lin International Trade and Trade Restrictions Quality, Complementarity and Prices in Japanese Pentration of the U.S. Automobile Market by Chyi-Ing Lin, Jer-Shiou Chiou and Ben-Chieh Liu Application of the Antidumping Laws in Latin America: A Review of Recent Cases and Prospects for the Future by Robert W. McGee Index

Impact of the East Asian Financial Crisis on the Asia-Pacific Regional Order: A Geo-Economic Perspective

Abstract: Since the collapse of the Thai baht in July 1997, the malfunctions and misalignments of financial markets in many East Asian economies have resulted in adverse effects on the real economy and led to a full-scale, region-wide economic recession. When regional economies adjusted their trade and investment strategies in order to cope with individual economic hardships, the configuration of East Asian economic interdependence has changed. Such changes have raised concerns about regional stability and order as economic leverage becomes one of the major determinants of world order in the post-Cold War era. A geo-economic analysis of regional order in this paper delineates the Asia-Pacific economic geography by trade and investment flows and suggests that the United States and China are the potential winners in the regional geo-economic competition after the onset of the Asian financial crisis.

Emerging Countries and Jobs and Wages in Europe: An Introduction

Abstract: Business between Asia and the European Union (EU) is booming. Economic interdependence between the two has been deepening rapidly since the early 1980s and has meanwhile spread over many sectors of economic activity. It has been accompanied by unilateral, bilateral and multilateral liberalisation of trade in goods, services and — selectively — direct investment, which, no doubt, has had a stimulating effect.1 However, this success story and the implied structural adjustment are not always applauded in Europe. At times, it has been fiercely resisted. In the early 1980s when the EU economy suffered from high unemployment, stagflation, Euro-sclerosis (various deeply entrenched rigidities, identified as slowly paralysing the EU economy) and ‘lost’ competitiveness, the EU resorted to no less than ten voluntary export restraints vis-a-vis Japanese exports, some new restrictions at the Member States’ level and a significant tightening of the third Multi-Fibre Arrangement (MFA) (1982-1986). The idea of a new GATT Round was also shot down by the EU in 1982.

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM The Outside World Intrudes

Abstract: Traditionally, Brunei has prided itself on its ability to forge its own patterns of social and economic development coupled with its distinctive culture and system of governance. In its elaboration of the concept of Malay Muslim Monarchy (Melayu, Islam, Beraja ? MIB), and its efforts to direct economic and social development at its own pace and with its own priorities, the country and its ruler have sought to channel and control external influences, whether those influences are felt in political, economic or cultural terms. That desire remains strong and has been an important motif in royal pronouncements (Utah) and in the media throughout 1998. But there can be little doubt that the impact of the economic downturn in the region, coupled with the unravelling of the complex tangle of business failures surrounding the collapse of Amedeo Corporation, the failed business conglomerate controlled by Prince Jefri, the Sultan's brother, has dem onstrated that the shape of Brunei's society and economy cannot be insulated from external influences. The impact of regional and local changes has been sharp. The economic downturn, a fall in the value of the Brunei dollar (around 15 per cent against the US$), the collapse of the rental property market, and a slump in the sales of consumer durables, brought home to all sectors of Brunei society the realities of regional and global economic interdependence. Neither the economy nor the political and social system is in crisis, that much is clear. But the events of the last year have been a shock to Bruneians and to the expatriate community that relied on jobs in the state, and that shock brought about strong reactions from the Sultan, from the political ?lite and from all levels of government. The traditionally quiescent pace of political and economic life in Brunei has been rudely awakened by these changes.