Showing papers in "Journal of Peace Research in 1999"

Assessing the Liberal Peace with Alternative Specifications: Trade Still Reduces Conflict*

Abstract: Some recent analyses challenge previous reports which show that economically important trade significantly reduces the probability of militarized disputes between countries. Beck et al. (1998) address the effect of temporal dependence in the time-series data on empirical support for the liberal peace, while Barbieri (1998) makes a number of important changes in theoretical specification and measurement. Using data for nearly the entire post-World War II era (1950-92), we first replicate the specifications of the challengers. When analyzing all dyads, we find no relationship between interdependence and peace, but the pacific benefits of trade become evident among the politically relevant dyads (those including a major power, or two contiguous states), among whom the great majority of disputes occur. Subsequently, we introduce, in stages, an alternative method of controlling for temporal dependence, our theoretically preferred measures of interdependence and proximity, and new dyadic estimates for unreported trade. With these sequential modifications we find increasingly strong support for the liberals' belief that economic interdependence and democracy have important pacific benefits. This support is largely robust to the methods of controlling for temporal dependence and to whether an attempt is made to explain involvement in disputes or merely their onset. We find no evidence that asymmetric trade increases conflict.

`Ours is the Way of God': Religion, Identity, And Intergroup Conflict

Abstract: According to social identity theory, identity competition plays a central role in the inception and escalation of intergroup conflict, even when economic and political factors also are at play. Individual and group identity competition is considered a byproduct of individuals' efforts to satisfy basic human needs, including various psychological needs. Religions often serve these psychological needs more comprehensively and potently than other repositories of cultural meaning that contribute to the construction and maintenance of individual and group identities. Religions frequently supply cosmologies, moral frameworks, institutions, rituals, traditions, and other identity-supporting content that answers to individuals' needs for psychological stability in the form of a predictable world, a sense of belonging, self-esteem, and even self-actualization. The peculiar ability of religion to serve the human identity impulse thus may partially explain why intergroup conflict so frequently occurs along religious...

The United Nations International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights: Does It Make a Difference in Human Rights Behavior?

Abstract: Formal acceptance of international agreements on human rights has progressed to the point where currently over three-quarters of the UN member states are parties to the International Covenant on Political and Civil Rights. In fact, becoming a party to this covenant seems to be concomitant with joining the UN. Of the newly independent states in Eastern Europe and in the region of the former Soviet Union, only Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Moldova, and Macedonia have not joined the treaty. This article tests empirically whether becoming a party to this international treaty (and its optional protocol) has an observable impact on the state party's actual behavior. The hypothesis is tested across 178 countries over an eighteen-year period (1976-93) and across four different measures of state human rights behavior. Initial bivariate analyses demonstrate some statistically significant differences between the behavior of states parties and the behavior of non-party states. However, this difference does not appear in th...

Domestic Ethnic Conflict and Ethnic Nepotism: A Comparative Analysis:

Abstract: Ethnic conflict seems to be common in all countries of the world where people are divided into separate ethnic groups, that may have a racial, national, linguistic, tribal, religious or caste basis. In this article it is proposed that a significant part of the universality of ethnic conflict can be explained by our evolved predisposition to ethnic nepotism, which can be regarded as an extended form of nepotism. Evolutionary theories of inclusive fitness and kin selection explain the origin and universality of nepotism. The members of an ethnic group tend to favour their group members over non-members because they are more related to their group members than to outsiders. This disposition to favour kin over non-kin becomes important in social life and politics when people and groups of people have to compete for scarce resources. Two hypotheses on political consequences of ethnic nepotism are presented: (1) significant ethnic division tends to lead to ethnic interest conflict in all societies and (2) the more a society is ethnically divided, the more political and other interest conflict tend to become channelled into ethnic lines. These two hypotheses are tested by empirical evidence for 183 contemporary states. The hypothetical concepts 'ethnic division' and 'ethnic conflict' are operationalized into empirical variables. The results support the two hypotheses. Deviating cases underline the importance of other relevant factors behind ethnic conflict and violence.

Globalization and Peace: Assessing New Directions in the Study of Trade and Conflict

Abstract: 'Globalization' has largely superseded the term 'economic interdependence' to describe the rapidly growing links between nations, economies, and societies. The effects that the internationalization of the world system has on social equality, the environment, and economic growth are, however, still largely disputed. In this article, we discuss the literature that covers another intensively debated issue and which attempts to assess the relationship between trade and interstate conflict. Although liberal economists maintain that economic interdependence exerts an unconditionally pacifying influence on interstate relations, we show that the most recent formal work expects that trade will have a negligible and, in the perspective of one important model at least, even an amplifying effect on conflict. Much empirical work, by contrast, supports the claim that the relationship between trade and conflict is direct and not mitigated by contextual factors. We review the different controversies on the link between economic interdependence and militarized disputes and outline some major challenges that have not yet been adequately dealt with in the scientific study of war and peace.

Sleeping with the Enemy: The Impact of War on Trade:

Abstract: Current debates over the question of whether economic interdependence promotes peace or contributes to international conflict are often framed in terms of the 'paradigm wars' between liberal and realist theory. In spite of their differences, most liberal and realist theories of interdependence and conflict agree that trade and other forms of economic interchange between societies will cease or be substantially reduced once states are engaged in serious forms of conflict with each other, particularly after the outbreak of war. Liberal theories generally assume that political leaders are deterred from engaging in conflict when they anticipate that conflict will disrupt or eliminate trade or adversely affect the terms of trade, so the hypothesis that trade deters war rests on the assumption that war impedes trade. Realist theories suggest that the concern over relative gains will lead at least one of the belligerents to terminate trade in order to prevent its adversary from using the gains from trade to increase its relative military power. Contrary to these predictions, there are numerous historical examples of trade between adversaries that continues during wartime. Our aim here is to examine this phenomenon more systematically by conducting an empirical analysis of the short-term and long-term impact of war on trade for seven dyads in the period since 1870. Applying an interrupted time-series model, we find that in most cases war does not have a significant impact on trading relationships. Although war sometimes leads to a temporary decline in the level of dyadic trade, in most instances war has no permanent long-term effect on trading relationships and, in fact, trade often increases in the postwar period. This empirical anomaly in both liberal and realist theories of interdependence and conflict leads us to conclude that both theories need to be reformulated.

How Could Trade Affect Conflict

Abstract: A common argument is that international trade prevents conflict because the possible loss of trade reduces the willingness of both sides to fight. I examine the logic of this argument in the light of game theoretic models of conflict. In such models, crises are contests of relative resolve. Neither side, however, can observe the other side's resolve in totality; resolve has observable and unobservable components. Instead both sides try to judge the other's unobservable resolve from their actions in the crisis. Costly signals play a critical role in the communication of unobservable resolve in these models. If higher trade flows reduce both sides' resolve for war, then the effect of trade on the likelihood of conflict is indeterminate. Trade flows are observable ex ante, and a state contemplating conflict considers its effect on both sides' actions before beginning a dispute. The initiator is less willing to fight, reducing the chance that it initiates a dispute. At the same time, the target is also less w...

Respect for Human Rights after the End of the Cold War

Abstract: By directly affecting democratization, globalization, domestic conflict, and interstate conflict, the end of the Cold War was hypothesized to exert an indirect effect on the propensity of governments to respect the human rights of their citizens. The findings for a sample of 79 countries showed that torture, disappearances, and extrajudicial killings continued at about the same rate even after the Cold War ended. However, after the end of the Cold War, there was significant improvement in government respect for the right against political imprisonment. Contrary to expectations, it was found that governments that decreased their involvement in interstate conflict or experienced decreased domestic conflict did not tend to increase respect for the right against political imprisonment. As hypothesized, it was found that governments that became more democratic or increased their participation in the global economy after the end of the Cold War tended to manifest higher levels of respect for the right of their citizens not to be politically imprisoned. However, a closer look at several recent examples of democratization in Africa suggests that any human rights improvements resulting from post-Cold War democratization may be short-lived. In the cases examined, improved government respect for the right against political imprisonment resulted from short-term manipulations by the leaders of 'illiberal' or 'demonstration' democracies who were not committed to democratization or to the advancement of the human rights of their citizens.

The Intrastate Security Dilemma: Ethnic Conflict as a `Tragedy'?

Abstract: This article seeks to pull together the main body of work on the security dilemma and that concerning the relatively recent move in international relations in reconceptualizing and operationalizing the concept away from its usual interstate setting. First, it will discuss some of the ways in which the security dilemma has been defined. Second, it will concentrate on the work of those writers who have conceived of 'ethnic security dilemmas' and 'insecurity dilemmas' occurring at the intrastate level. Third, it will suggest some possible answers to the problems that this body of writing has raised. Fourth, it will both introduce and further develop the concept of the '(inter-) societal security dilemma' as a possibly more productive way of explaining the outbreak of ethnic violence. Moreover, throughout the article the question as to if and when ethnic conflict can be seen as a 'tragedy' in Herbert Butterfield's sense of the word will be addressed.

Liberalism and Interdependence: Extending the Trade-Conflict Model

Abstract: The question of whether trade affects conflict is important for public policy. To date, theoretical studies have treated trade or the gains from trade as exogenous. However, a dyad's gains from trade are influenced by a number of factors, including foreign aid, tariffs, contiguity, and relative country size. This article presents a mathematical model to extend the conflict-trade model to incorporate foreign aid, tariffs, contiguity, and country size. In particular, we examine how the gains from trade are affected by these factors, with foreign aid, and contiguity increasing the gains from trade and tariffs reducing the gains from trade. Small countries have larger trade gains when trading with a large country than with a small country. If countries seek to protect their trade gains, the model predicts that foreign aid and contiguity will decrease conflict, while tariffs will increase conflict. The contiguity result suggests that conflict between neighboring countries would be greater than observed if not for the mitigating effects of trade. Trade with large countries decreases conflict more than trade with small countries. In addition, rather than concentrating solely on bilateral interactions, the models are specified in enough detail to garner implications concerning the effects of changes in the terms of trade on third parties. Empirical results, generally supporting the hypotheses, are presented using a sample from the Conflict and Peace Data Bank.

NATO Burden-Sharing: Past and Future:

Abstract: NATO is facing major changes and challenges: enlargement, new threats, new missions, new technology, and declining defence budgets. These developments raise the question of who will pay for the cha...

Sanctions as a Foreign Policy Tool: Weighing Humanitarian Impulses

Abstract: Economic sanctions have become a popular multilateral and bilateral enforcement measure in the 1990s. Their efficacy is doubtful along with their moral superiority over military force. Substantial suffering by vulnerable groups in Iraq, former Yugoslavia, and Haiti has led to a 'bust' for this foreign policy tool. Sanctions can be designed to be more effective and less inhumane than they are at present, but much more research is required about their precise impact on civilians and on targeted regimes. Early post-Cold War euphoria is giving way to more realistic and subtle assessments of the pluses and minuses of economic and military coercion.

Institutional Constraints, Political Opposition, And Interstate Dispute Escalation: Evidence from Parliamentary Systems, 1946-89:

Abstract: Research on the 'democratic peace' has received considerable attention in the last few years. Democracies, though, are often thrown together when examining the propensity of different regime types to become engaged in international conflict. Yet, democratic governments vary dramatically across nation-states. Whether it be presidential versus parliamentary, or multi-party versus single-party, democratic states clearly differ in the structure of their governing institutions. This article examines the relationship between government type, domestic political opposition, and the threat, show or use of military force. The analysis finds that Western parliamentary governments are rarely involved in militarized interstate disputes, but when they are they tend to be the targets of aggression by non-democratic states. Furthermore, the evidence suggests that these democratic governments are much more likely to reciprocate disputes when their opponent is a non-democracy. Reciprocation, though, also tends to be influenced by the type of government in power during a dispute. Coalition democratic governments, rather than single-party governments, are much more likely to reciprocate militarized disputes. In fact, the findings suggest that coalition governments are more likely to reciprocate disputes in general, and particularly more likely to reciprocate with the actual use of military force. The results also suggest that the level of polarization of a parliamentary government tends to decrease the probability of dispute reciprocation.

Conflict among Former Allies after Civil War Settlement: Sudan, Zimbabwe, Chad, and Lebanon

Abstract: The interesting theoretical question about civil war in general is not why it begins (the possible reasons are surely too many to enumerate) or why it stops (all sorts of contingent explanations from simple fatigue to outside force may apply) but why it so often does not resume when it might. We need to comprehend this process of conflict transformation, whereby the conflict either becomes less important or is pursued without using mass violence. Understandably, most analyses and prescriptions for peacemakers focus on relationships between former enemies and attempts to reduce incentives for them to take up arms again. However, a recent analysis of four negotiated settlements of civil wars (Sudan in 1972, Zimbabwe in 1980, Chad in 1987, and Lebanon in 1989) reveals that in all four cases the critical conflict was actually between former allies. The compromises required in negotiated settlements, combined with the other problems of post-civil war societies, make such conflicts likely. In some cases they led to violence; in Zimbabwe and Lebanon conflict again reached the level of civil war. However, the ironic results was that the countries that had experienced the most violence subsequently produced new settlements which essentially confirmed the original ones and appear to be holding. In Sudan, interallied violence was quite low, but the result was that the government changed its policy, the first settlement was undermined, and the original civil war began again. Outsiders should not assume either that wartime cooperation will continue in peace or that 'normal' peacetime behavior will naturally appear of its own accord. Indeed, they should probably anticipate that ad hoc wartime alliances are likely to dissolve with the risk of renewed civil violence.

Instruments of Security or Tools of Repression? Arms Imports and Human Rights Conditions in Developing Countries

Abstract: Scholars traditionally have focused on arms as a means of deterring, initiating, maintaining, or terminating international war Indeed, based on the assumption that a coercive military response is required if security is to be preserved, arms are widely viewed as an instrument of defense from external threat In the developing world, however, internal threats are far more common Yet the role of arms in facilitating domestic political violence has received far less scholarly attention This article endeavors to expand upon both our understanding of arms as a source of conflict and our knowledge of the correlates of human rights repression To this end, this study tests the relationship between the importation of arms and the repression of personal integrity rights Employing a pooled time-series cross-sectional design, the patterns of arms acquisitions behavior and human rights violations are examined for developing countries for the years 1982 through 1992 The results indicate that arms imports by developing countries are linked to poor human rights conditions Thus, arms acquisitions appear to contribute to repression by making violent political acts more feasible

The Influence of Religious Legitimacy on Grievance Formation by Ethno-Religious Minorities

Abstract: While there is considerable agreement that religion can bolster the legitimacy of governments, those who oppose them, and just about any political action by any individual or group, there has been no previous large-N cross-sectional study of the subject. This study tests the effects of religious legitimacy on grievance formation by ethnic minorities using data on 105 ethno-religious minorities from the Minorities at Risk Phase 3 dataset as well as data on religion collected independently. For operational purposes, a minority is an ethno-religious minority when at least 80% of that group's members are of different religious denominations than that of the dominant ethnic group of the state in which they live. The findings show that religious legitimacy does influence grievance formation but that influence is not the monolithically positive influence that would be expected. Religious legitimacy tends to facilitate the formation of grievances over non-religious issues when religion is not an issue in the conflict but deters the formation of grievances over these issues when religion is an issue. The presence of religious legitimacy is also positively associated more indirectly and weakly with the formation of religious grievances.

Beneath the Surface: Regime Type and International Interaction, 1953-78:

Abstract: The empirical finding that democracies do not fight each other has long suggested that regime type influences international behavior. In the research reported here, we demonstrate that the democratic peace is only the most visible manifestation of the impact of domestic political structure on international relations. We consider the complete range of cooperative and conflictual interaction of each state in the international system with every dyadic partner in its politically relevant international environment between 1953 and 1978. We demonstrate a strong and consistent relationship between regime type and foreign policy behavior, both at the monadic and the dyadic level. States with more democratic characteristics tend to behave more cooperatively and less conflictually in the international system; these tendencies intensify when democratic states interact with other democracies. Meanwhile, non-democracies tend to treat democracies with more conflictual and less cooperative behavior. The influence of the internal institutional structures of states on their external behavior extends well beyond decisions to go to war. The empirical findings reported herein suggest that future research will benefit from increased attention to the relationships among state structure, leaders' incentives, foreign policy behavior, and international outcomes.

Ripples from the Waves? A Systemic, Time-Series Analysis of Democracy, Democratization, and Interstate War

Abstract: Few puzzles in international relations research have received as much attention as the relationship between political regimes and interstate conflict. Here we examine a particular aspect of this puzzle: the systemic relationships between democracy, democratization, and interstate conflict. We test hypotheses aimed at exploring three dimensions of this general inquiry. First, that democracy, democratization, and war are endogenous phenomena. Second, that the relationships between these three processes vary across time with respect to their strength and direction. Lastly, that these relationships also vary spatially, paying particular attention to geographic regions. Using time-series techniques with data for the period 1816-1992, we employ Granger causality and vector auto-regression (VAR) techniques to test our hypotheses. Briefly, we find evidence confirming the endogeneity of these processes, though this endogeneity is not as extensive as we anticipated and is conditional on the spatial and temporal sample selected. Perhaps more importantly, we find evidence suggesting that the statistical strength and sign of the relationships of interest exhibit considerable spatial and temporal heterogeneity. We conclude that the regional level, rather than the global level, holds more promise for understanding the interrelationships between systemic democracy, democratization, and interstate conflict.

Hurting Stalemate or Mediation? The Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, 1990-95*

Abstract: The impacts of six attempts to mediate the conflict over the political status of Nagorno-Karabakh in the Caucasus region of the former Soviet Union were compared Each mediation was intended to get the direct parties - Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh - to the negotiating table Nearly 4,000 events were recorded for a six-year period from 1990 through 1995 Each event was coded in terms of a six-step scale ranging from a significant action toward peace (+3) to substantial violence directed at an adversary (-3) Time-series analyses of changes in the extent of violence showed no change from before to after any of the mediations A significant change did occur, however, between the months preceding and following the period of intensive combat between April 1993 and February 1994 These results support the hypothesis that a mutually hurting stalemate is a condition for negotiating a ceasefire and reduced violence between warring parties A number of theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed

Armed Conflict, 1989-98

Abstract: A total of 108 armed conflicts has been recorded for the years 1989-98. Of these, 36 were active in 1998. This marks an increase from 1997, after an overall decline in the number of conflicts per year since 1992. The number of wars nearly doubled in 1998, after a marked decrease that had also started in 1992. Most wars took place in Africa. Seven interstate armed conflicts were recorded for the whole period, of which two were active in 1998.

The Propensity to Forgive: Findings from Lebanon

Abstract: The propensity to forgive a severe offense is studied in a sample of 48 people from three religious communities in Lebanon: Catholics, Maronites, and Orthodox. The effects of a number of circumstances: intent to harm, cancellation of consequences, religious and social proximity to the offender and apologies from the offender, on the propensity to forgive, and the variation of these effects as a function of age, gender, and educational level, were considered. The method was an application of Norman Anderson's functional theory of cognition. Twenty-four stories were constructed by varying systematically the levels of each of the four factors quoted above. Participants were asked to rate in each case their propensity to forgive on a forgiveness scale. The more important results concern: (a) the overall level of propensity to forgive, which was higher than expected, (b) the impact of the religious proximity factor, which was very slight, and (c) the effect of the apologies factor, which was extremely important.

A Test for Reverse Causality in the Democratic Peace Relationship

Abstract: Several studies have suggested the possibility of reverse causation in the `democratic peace' relationship: that the well-known extreme rarity of wars between democratic nations may be partially or...

Ethnic Conflicts in The Former USSR: The Use and Misuse of Typologies and Data

Abstract: This article summarizes research on ethnic conflict in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Various appealing but unsatisfactory typologies have been proposed, focusing on the subjects of the conflict (actors, goals, motivations); on the environment of the conflict (territory, language, socio-economy, environment and resources; or on characteristics of the conflict (scale, length, form of fighting, losses, aftermath). Most conflict typologies reflect better the thinking and political agenda of the typologists than the actual social panorama. Conflict theories and data presentations contain strong prescriptive elements and may even generate new conflict. For the conflicts in the Former Soviet Union, existing typologies fail to grasp several major factors, such as the strategies and behavior of individuals, social and political disorder, power and status aspirations, elite manipulations, and outside interventions. This article discusses data on human and material losses in nine violent conflicts: Karabakh, Fergana, Osh, South Ossetia, Transdniestria, Tajik, Abkhazia, Ingush-Ossetian, and Chechen. In conclusion, a plea is made for writing 'between' theory and data, without sacrificing sensitive and self-reflective narration in order to produce new insights and new knowledge.

Balance of Power Revisited: A Multi-Country Model of Trade and Conflict

Abstract: A general multi-country model of trade and conflict is outlined and comparative static results for the number of countries are explored. Conflict is defined as a credible threat to use force to appropriate resources of another country. The model shows that, in general, trade reduces the incentives for conflict, but multi-country situations require important modifications. The pacifying effect of trade diminishes rapidly with a larger number of countries. The effect of trade on conflict is compared given different assumptions about the nature of conflict. Assuming that conflict does not lead to the elimination of the losing side, trade has the strongest deterrent effect if countries trade freely before conflict and are committed to not trading after conflict. Countries have, however, an interest in resuming trade. The connection between this commitment problem and security is then explored in the model from a balance-of-power perspective. The commitment not to trade with an adversary becomes more strained if an alliance is relatively weak or fragmented. In such circumstances, intra-alliance trade has to be more efficient.

Gandhi, Deep Ecology, Peace Research And Buddhist Economics

Abstract: The central importance of Gandhi to nonviolent activism is widely acknowledged. There are also other significant peace-related bodies of knowledge that have gained such popularity in the West in the relatively recent past that they have changed the directions of thought and have been important in encouraging social movements - yet they have not been analysed in terms of antecedents, especially Gandhian ones. The new environmentalism in the form of deep ecology, the discipline of peace research and what has become known as 'Buddhist economics' very closely mirror Gandhi's philosophy. This article analyses the Mahatma's contribution to the intellectual development of three leading figures in these fields: Arne Naess, Johan Galtung and E. F. Schumacher and argues that those who want to make an informed study of deep ecology, peace research or Buddhist economics, and particularly those who are interested in the philosophy of Naess, Galtung or Schumacher, should go back to Gandhi for a fuller picture.

Defense Spending and Economic Growth in South Korea: The Indirect Link

Abstract: Due to the lingering food crisis, speculations about the collapse of the North Korean regime have intensified in recent years. The collapse of the North Korean regime is expected to generate a tremendous economic burden on the South Korean economy. Moreover, the current economic crisis in South Korea requires a tight fiscal policy. Thus, on the basis of the peace dividend argument, some suggest that South Korea should reduce its military expenditures to prepare for the upcoming extra economic burden. For this reason, the economic effects of defense spending on growth in South Korea are a significant concern for policymakers as well as scholars. I examined the economic effects of defense spending on growth in terms of time and magnitude by investigating the direct effects as well as the indirect impacts (via investment and export) of military spending on economic growth. A three-equation econometric model was specified and empirically tested using South Korean data for 1954-95. The findings of this study reveal that the overall economic effects of defense spending on growth are negative although they seem to be indirect or delayed.

Neoidealism and the Democratic Peace

Abstract: While analysts hail the democratic peace as an empirical vindication of neoidealist precepts of world politics, actually it is inconsistent with them. Neoidealism focuses on the role of international regimes - not shared political regime type - in reducing the probability of interstate conflict. In this article, I suggest a more consistent neoidealist conceptualization of the stability among democratic dyads. Focusing on the postwar era, I maintain that a combination of factors, including bipolarity, nuclear deterrence, alliance membership, and trade links, contributed to the formation of an international security regime among the major power democracies and their minor power democratic allies. Further, I maintain that the presence of this international regime and not simply joint democracy allowed for the postwar stability among democratic dyads. While democracy may have been associated with the creation of a security regime at the behest of the Western democracies led by the USA, the expansion and maintenance of this regime (and its conflict dampening attributes) are rooted, to a greater extent, in the interplay of alliance-aggregation and security externalities of trade. This argument is consistent with neoidealist precepts and by focusing on the role of security regimes it contributes to the neoidealist research program.

Russia: Systemic Transformation or Federal Collapse?

Abstract: Most scholars have argued that the Russian Federation, having survived the turbulence of 1992-93, has slowly developed a durable and sustainable modus operandi. This article argues for the opposite. It notes that the constituent parts of the federation gradually secured greater constitutional and political legitimacy throughout Yeltsin's second-term presidency, even to the extent of regionalizing some federal military structures. They entered into economic alliances with newly privatized companies, created independent communication and information networks and, to a more limited extent, developed foreign economic policies. Although this drift towards growing regional autonomy was kept more or less in check by the centre's ability to contain the wilder excesses of regional governors, the 1998 'August Meltdown' disrupted the balance between centripetal and centrifugal forces within the federation by dramatically weakening the centre's power. As a consequence, the federal system of governance is disintegrating not by design but by default. Following an analysis of the extent to which federal transformation has occurred during 1998, the article charts the likely future trajectory of this process. It argues that as the centre is largely unable to combat the crisis, Russia will either become a very weak federation dominated by large regional blocs, or a confederation. The article concludes by suggesting that Russia's systemic transformation will affect our perceptions of security within the region and that this has important implications for Western policymakers.

Attitudes of Palestinians toward Normalization with Israel

Abstract: The Palestinian-Israeli conflict, originally a native-settler conflict, is one of the most durable and intractable conflicts since World War II. While the peace process between the Palestinians and Israelis has started, no final solution has been reached between the two sides, and Israel still occupies most of the Palestinian territories in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Under these conditions, an interesting question is raised about normalization between Palestinians and Israelis. Based on data collected in 1994 from a total sample of 270 students in Birzeit University, this article studies the attitudes of Palestinian students toward cultural normalization with Israel. Despite the fact that Israel still occupies the Palestinian territories, a major part of Palestinian students support normalizing cultural relations between Palestinians and Israelis. Support for normalization is significantly associated with social class or father's occupation. Students from the working class are more supportive of cultural cooperation with Israelis than those from other classes. This is explained by the working-class families' greater experience of contact with Israelis and a greater dependence on the Israeli labour market.

Whither International Efforts for Internally Displaced Persons

Abstract: Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) now comprise the main war victims, and are probably twice as numerous as refugees. Paradoxically, a legal framework and a special institution exist for the latter whereas neither exists for the former. This serious structural flaw in the international humanitarian system has been recognized with the appointment of a representative of the UN Secretary-General on internally displaced persons. Over the last half decade, international discourse has changed and guiding principles have been developed for dissemination. It is time for action to replace oratory. A review of the progress to date and gaps in the present coverage for IDPs provide the background for analyzing intergovernmental options currently under consideration.