Showing papers on "Funding liquidity published in 2016"

An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds

Abstract: We compare the market pricing of euro area government bonds and the corresponding Credit Default Swaps (CDSs). In particular, we analyse the “basis” defined as the difference between the premium on the CDS and the credit spread on the underlying bond. Our sample of weekly data covers the period from January 2007 to December 2012 and contains several episodes of sovereign market distress. Overall, we observe a complex relationship between the derivatives market and the underlying cash market characterised by sizable deviations from the no-arbitrage relationship (i.e. basis equal to zero). We show that short-selling frictions explain the persistence of positive basis deviations while funding frictions explain the persistence of negative basis deviations which are observed for countries with weak public finances. Moreover, we show that the “flight-to-quality/liquidity” phenomenon in bond markets is a key driver of the large positive basis of better rated countries.

Measuring Liquidity Mismatch in the Banking Sector

Abstract: This paper constructs a liquidity mismatch index (LMI) to gauge the mismatch between the market liquidity of assets and the funding liquidity of liabilities, for 2,882 bank holding companies over 2002 to 2014. The aggregate LMI decreases from +$4 trillion precrisis to −$6 trillion in 2008. We conduct an LMI stress test revealing the fragility of the banking system in early 2007. Moreover, LMI predicts a bank's stock market crash probability and borrowing decisions from the government during the financial crisis. The LMI is therefore informative about both individual bank liquidity and the liquidity risk of the entire banking system.

The Dynamics of Market Efficiency

Abstract: This paper studies the dynamics of high-frequency market efficiency measures. We provide evidence that these measures co-move across stocks and with each other, suggesting the existence of a systematic market efficiency component. In vector autoregressions, we show that shocks to funding liquidity (the TED spread), hedge fund assets under management, and a proxy for algorithmic trading are significantly associated with systematic market efficiency. Thus, stock market efficiency is prone to systematic fluctuations, and, consistent with recent theories, events and policies that impact funding liquidity can affect the aggregate degree of price efficiency.

The effects of liquidity regulation on bank assets and liabilities

Abstract: Under Basel III rules, banks became subject to a liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) from 2015 onward, to promote shortterm resilience. Investigating the effects of such liquidity regulation on bank balance sheets, we find (i) cointegration of liquid assets and liabilities, to maintain a minimum short-term liquidity buffer; and (ii) that adjustment in the liquidity ratio is skewed towards the liability side. This finding contrasts with established wisdom that compliance with the LCR is mainly driven by changes in liquid assets. Moreover, microprudential regulation has not prevented a procyclical liquidity cycle in secured financing that is strongly correlated with leverage.

Sovereign Credit Risk, Liquidity, and ECB Intervention: Deus ex Machina? I Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming

Abstract: We examine the dynamic relation between credit risk and liquidity in the Italian sovereign bond market during the Euro-zone crisis and the subsequent European Central Bank (ECB) interventions. Credit risk drives the liquidity of the market: a 10% change in the credit default swap (CDS) spread leads to a 13% change in the bid-ask spread, the relation being stronger when the CDS spread exceeds 500 bp. The Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO) of the ECB weakened the sensitivity of market makers’ liquidity provision to credit risk, highlighting the importance of funding liquidity measures as determinants of market liquidity.

International stock market liquidity: a review

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to review the literature on liquidity in international stock markets, highlights differences and similarities in empirical results across existing studies, and identifies areas requiring further research. Design/methodology/approach – International cross-country studies on stock market liquidity are categorized and reviewed. Important relevant single-country studies are also discussed. Findings – Market liquidity is influenced by exchange characteristics (e.g. the presence of market makers) and regulations (e.g. short-sales constraints). The literature has identified the most appropriate liquidity measures for global research, and for emerging and frontier markets, respectively. Major empirical facts are as follows. Liquidity co-varies within and across countries. Both the liquidity level and liquidity uncertainty are priced internationally. Liquidity is positively associated with firm transparency and share issuance, and negatively related to dividends paid out. The impact of internationalization on liquidity is not universal across firms and countries. Some suggested areas for future studies include: dark pools, high-frequency trading, commonality in liquidity premium, funding liquidity, liquidity and capital structure, and liquidity and transparency. Research limitations/implications – The paper focusses on international stock markets and does not consider liquidity in international bond or foreign exchange markets. Originality/value – This paper provides a comprehensive survey of empirical studies on liquidity in international developed and emerging stock markets.

Trader Leverage and Liquidity

Abstract: Does trader leverage drive equity market liquidity? We use the unique features of the margin trading system in India to identify a causal relationship between traders’ ability to borrow and a stock’s market liquidity. To quantify the impact of trader leverage, we employ a regression discontinuity design that exploits threshold rules that determine a stock’s margin trading eligibility. We find that liquidity is higher when stocks become eligible for margin trading and that this liquidity enhancement is driven by margin traders’ contrarian strategies. Consistent with downward liquidity spirals due to deleveraging, we also find that this effect reverses during crises.

Double cascade model of financial crises

Abstract: The scope of financial systemic risk research encompasses a wide range of interbank channels and effects, including asset correlation shocks, default contagion, illiquidity contagion, and asset fire sales. This paper introduces a financial network model that combines the default and liquidity stress mechanisms into a “double cascade mapping”. The progress and eventual result of the crisis is obtained by iterating this mapping to its fixed point. Unlike simpler models, this model can therefore quantify how illiquidity or default of one bank influences the overall level of liquidity stress and default in the system. Large-network asymptotic cascade mapping formulas are derived that can be used for efficient network computations of the double cascade. Numerical experiments then demonstrate that these asymptotic formulas agree qualitatively with Monte Carlo results for large finite networks, and quantitatively except when the initial system is placed in an exceptional “knife-edge” configuration. The experiments clearly support the main conclusion that when banks respond to liquidity stress by hoarding liquidity, then in the absence of asset fire sales, the level of defaults in a financial network is negatively related to the strength of bank liquidity hoarding and the eventual level of stress in the network.

Filtering of a Discrete-Time HMM-Driven Multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Model With Application to Forecasting Market Liquidity Regimes

Abstract: This paper investigates the modeling of risk due to market and funding liquidity by capturing the joint dynamics of three time series: the treasury-Eurodollar spread, the VIX, and a metric derived from the S&P 500 spread. We propose a two-regime mean-reverting model for explaining the behaviour of three time series, which mirror liquidity levels for financial markets. An expectation-maximisation algorithm in conjunction with multivariate filters is employed to construct optimal parameter estimates of the proposed model. The selection of the modeling set-up is justified by balancing the best-fit criterion and model complexity. The model performance is demonstrated on historical market data, and a descriptive analysis of the different liquidity measures shows the presence of clear high and low states.

Indirect Contagion: The Policy Problem

Abstract: An epidemiologist calculating the risk of a localised epidemic becoming a global pandemic would investigate every possible channel of contagion from the infected region to the rest of the world. Focusing on, say, the incidence of close human contact would underestimate the pandemic risk if the disease could also spread through the air. Likewise, calculating the quantity of financial system risk requires practitioners to understand all of the channels through which small and local shocks can become big and global. Much of the empirical finance literature has focused only on “direct” contagion arising from firms’ contractual obligations. Direct contagion occurs if one firm’s default on its contractual obligations triggers distress (such as illiquidity or insolvency) at a counterparty firm. But contractual obligations are not the only means by which financial distress can spread, just as close human contact is not the only way that many infectious diseases are transmitted. Focusing only on direct contagion underestimates the risk of financial crisis given that other important channels exist. This paper represents an attempt to move systemic risk analysis closer to the holism of epidemiology. In doing so, we begin by identifying the fundamental channels of indirect contagion, which manifest even in the absence of direct contractual links. The first is the market price channel, in which scarce funding liquidity and low market liquidity reinforce each other, generating a vicious spiral. The second is information spillovers, in which bad news can adversely affect a broad range of financial firms and markets. Indirect contagion spreads market failure through these two channels. In the case of illiquidity spirals, firms do not internalise the negative externality of holding low levels of funding liquidity or of fire-selling assets into a thin market. Lack of information and information asymmetries can cause markets to unravel, even following a relatively small piece of bad news. In both cases, market players act in ways that are privately optimal but socially harmful. The spreading of market failure by indirect contagion motivates policy intervention. Substantial progress has been made in legislating for policies that will improve systemic resilience to indirect contagion. But more tools might be needed to achieve a fully effective and efficient macroprudential policy framework. This paper aims to frame a high-level policy discussion on three policy tools that could be effective and efficient in ensuring systemic resilience to indirect contagion – namely macroprudential liquidity regulation; restrictions on margins and haircuts; and information disclosure.

Determinants of different types of bank liquidity: evidence from BRICS countries

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the determinants of three different types of bank liquidity: funding liquidity, liquidity creation, and stock liquidity in emerging markets. Design/methodology/approach It uses an extensive set of data from all the listed banks of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, collectively known as the BRICS countries, spanning the period 2002-2014. Multiple linear regression has been used to estimate the coefficients of the determinants. Findings In case of emerging markets, bank size is not a determinant of different types of liquidity, except funding liquidity. Besides, the recent financial crisis had an impact on funding liquidity as well as “cat nonfat” measure of liquidity creation but it did not affect “cat fat” measure and stock liquidity. The variation in funding liquidity is also explained by the profitability and the riskiness of the bank. Effective interest rate, national savings rate, and inflation rate are also the determinants of funding liquidity. Bank-specific determinants of liquidity creation include bank leverage and profitability, and macroeconomic determinants include stock market index, effective interest rate, and unemployment rate. The variation in stock liquidity of the bank is explained by profitability and price of stocks, trading volume, volatility of stock returns, and percentage change in real gross domestic product. Neither market capitalization nor stock market index is the determinant of stock liquidity of the banks. Research limitations/implications This study uses the data from publically listed banks only. Practical implications The findings of this study may be used by the policy makers and bank managers in the emerging markets to design better policies and to strengthen the banking system to avoid financial turmoil in future. Originality/value Most of the existing studies focus on bank liquidity in developed countries and studies aiming on emerging countries are rare. The existing studies focus more on funding liquidity and liquidity creation but to the best of the authors’ knowledge, none of the studies analyze the determinants of banks’ stock liquidity. So, this study bridges the above mentioned gaps by focusing on bank liquidity in emerging markets, and exploring the determinants of the stock liquidity of the banks.

Investment funds, shadow banking and systemic risk

Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to consider the role of investment funds in the credit intermediation process and discuss various forms of systemic risk their involvement might give rise to. It concludes by drawing some conclusions on the policy challenges facing authorities charged with regulating shadow banking. Design/methodology/approach – The paper is based on findings from prior research and statistics. Findings – On a general level, the paper shows that even though traditional investment funds and hedge funds may be very different in terms of their investment strategies and business models, some of them share several commonalities from a systemic risk perspective. More specifically, it discusses how instability in the funding profile of investment funds may threaten their ability to substitute banks’ maturity and liquidity transformation; that their potential funding liquidity shortages, asset reallocations and leverage may contribute to procyclicality in credit and market runs on the systemic money and ...

The Nexus Between Systemic Risk and Sovereign Crises

Abstract: This paper focuses on the relationship between the financial system and sovereign debt crises by analyzing sovereign support to banks and banks’ resulting exposure to the bonds issued by weak sovereigns. We construct an agent-based network model of an artificial financial system allowing us to analyze the effects of state support on systemic stability and the feedback loops of risk transfer back into the financial system. The model is tested with various parameter settings in Monte Carlo simulations. Our analyses yield the following key results: first, in the short term, all the support measures improve systemic stability. Second, in the longer run, there are settings which mitigate the systemic crisis and settings which contribute to systemic breakdown. Finally, there are differences among the effects of the different types of support measures. While bailouts and recapitalization are the most efficient types of support type and execution of guarantees is still a viable solution, the results of liqu idity measures such as asset relief or provision of funding liquidity are significantly worse.

Prime Broker-Level Comovement in Hedge Fund Returns: Information or Contagion?

Abstract: We document strong comovement in the returns of hedge funds sharing the same prime broker. This comovement is driven neither by funds in the same family nor in the same style, and it is distinct from market-wide and local comovement. The common information hypothesis attributes this phenomenon to the prime broker providing valuable information to its hedge fund clients. The prime broker-level contagion hypothesis attributes the comovement to the prime broker spreading funding liquidity shocks across its hedge fund clients. We find strong evidence supporting the common information hypothesis, but limited evidence in favor of the prime broker-level contagion hypothesis.Received September 6, 2014; accepted January 7, 2016 by Editor Philip Strahan.

Interaction among funding liquidity, liquidity creation and stock liquidity of banks: Evidence from BRICS countries

Abstract: Purpose This study aims to explore the relationship between three different kinds of bank liquidity: funding liquidity; liquidity creation; and stock liquidity Design/methodology/approach It used the data from listed banks of BRICS countries spanning the period 2007-2014 Simultaneous equations model and three-stage least square estimation were used for analysis Findings First of all, increase in liquidity creation is linked to decline in funding liquidity, but variation in funding liquidity does not describe changes in liquidity creation Second, higher stock illiquidity is associated with greater liquidity creation, but liquidity creation does not determine variation in stock liquidity Lastly, there is no direct relationship between funding liquidity and stock liquidity; however, stock liquidity indirectly affects funding liquidity through liquidity creation Practical implications The findings highlight the fact that capital is not the only determinant of liquidity creation, rather stock liquidity is an equally important determinant in the case of listed banks of BRICS countries This fact has been highlighted by the recent financial crisis Furthermore, funding liquidity depends on liquidity creation which depends on stock liquidity However, the stock liquidity of banks neither depends on liquidity creation nor funding liquidity Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first one to provide the empirical evidence for the relationship between three different kinds of bank liquidity

Prime Broker-Level Comovement in Hedge Fund Returns: Information or Contagion?

Abstract: We document strong comovement in the returns of hedge funds sharing the same prime broker. This comovement is driven neither by funds in the same family nor in the same style, and it is distinct from market-wide and local comovement. The common information hypothesis attributes this phenomenon to the prime broker providing valuable information to its hedge fund clients. The prime broker-level contagion hypothesis attributes the comovement to the prime broker spreading funding liquidity shocks across its hedge fund clients. We find strong evidence supporting the common information hypothesis, but limited evidence in favor of the prime broker-level contagion hypothesis.

Illiquidity and Insolvency: a Double Cascade Model of Financial Crises

Abstract: The scope of financial systemic risk research encompasses a wide range of channels and effects, including asset correlation shocks, default contagion, illiquidity contagion, and asset firesales. For example, insolvency of a given bank will create a shock to the asset side of the balance sheet of each of its creditor banks and under some circumstances, such "downstream" shocks can cause further insolvencies that may build up to create what is called an insolvency or default cascade. On the other hand, funding illiquidity that hits a given bank will create a shock to the liability side of the balance sheet of each of its debtor banks. Under some circumstances, such "upstream" shocks can cause illiquidity in further banks that may build up to create an illiquidity cascade. This paper introduces a deliberately simplified financial network model that combines the default and liquidity stress mechanisms into a "double cascade mapping". The progress and eventual result of the crisis is obtained by iterating this mapping to its fixed point. Unlike simpler models, this model can therefore quantify how illiquidity or default of one bank influences the eventual overall level of liquidity stress and default in the system. Large-network asymptotic cascade mapping formulas are derived that can be used for efficient network computations of the double cascade. Numerical experiments then demonstrate that these asymptotic formulas agree qualitatively with Monte Carlo results for large finite networks, and quantitatively except when the initial system is placed in an exceptional "knife-edge" configuration. The experiments clearly support the main conclusion that in the absence of fire sales, the average eventual level of defaults in a financial network is negatively related to the strength of banks' liquidity stress response and the eventual level of stress in the network.

Funding Liquidity Risk and the Dynamics of Hedge Fund Lockups

Abstract: We exploit the expiring nature of hedge fund lockups to create a dynamic, fund-level proxy of funding liquidity risk. In contrast to the prior literature, our measure allows us to identify how within-fund changes in funding liquidity risk are associated with performance and risk taking. Lockup funds with lower funding liquidity risk take more tail risk and have better risk-adjusted performance, suggesting reduced funding liquidity risk enables funds to better capitalize on risky mispricing. Surprisingly, lockup funds outperform non-lockup funds even when controlling for restricted capital, suggesting that a portion of the lockup premium is attributable to a "lockup-fixed effect."

Strategic Complementarity in Banks' Funding Liquidity Choices and Financial Stability

Abstract: This paper examines whether banks’ liquidity and maturity mismatch decisions are affected by the choices of competitors and the impact of these coordinated funding liquidity policies on financial stability. Using a novel identification strategy where interactions are structured through decision networks, I show that banks do consider their peers’ liquidity choices when determining their own. This effect is asymmetric and not present in bank capital choices. Importantly, I find that these strategic funding liquidity decisions increase both individual banks’ default risk and overall systemic risk. From a macroprudential perspective, the results highlight the importance of explicitly regulating systemic liquidity risk.

Liquidity stress testing with second-round effects: application to the Czech banking sector

Abstract: We build a macro stress-testing model for banks’ market and funding liquidity risks with a survival period of one month. The model takes into account the impact of both bank-specific and market-wide scenarios and includes second-round effects of shocks due to banks’ feedback reactions. The model has three phases: (i) the formation of a balance-sheet liquidity shortfall, (ii) the reaction of banks on financial markets, and (iii) the feedback effects of shocks, such as secondary deposit outflows for reacting banks and additional haircuts on securities. During each phase, we recount the liquidity buffer and examine whether banks hold a sufficiently large amount of liquid assets to be able to survive the liquidity tension in their balance sheets. The framework is applied to the Czech banking sector to illustrate typical calibrations and the impact on banks.

Systemic Risk Measures and Their Viability for Banking Supervision

Abstract: We propose a criteria-based framework to assess the viability of systemic risk measures (SRMs) as a monitoring tool for banking supervision and investigate the determinants of the banking system's overall level of systemic risk. Comparing three prominent SRMs we find that all of them possess substantial forecasting power for banking system distress, however, the measures vary significantly in their predictive accuracy for the state of the real economy. Furthermore, we find that the system-wide market-to-book (MTB) and loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratios act as fundamental drivers of systemic risk. The results have paramount implications. First, the MTB ratio itself may be used as a simple and efficient proxy for the overall systemic tension in the banking system. Second, the systemic relevance of the LTD ratio underlines the critical role of funding liquidity and supports recently proposed regulatory initiatives that curb aggregate liquidity risks. Third, the inclusion of balance sheet data is beneficial for systemic risk measurement.

Liquidity Determinants in the UK Gilt Market

Abstract: We use proprietary transactional data to examine the determinants of liquidity in the UK government bond (gilt) market, over a rich sample period that covers both the financial crisis of 2008–09 as well as the onset of the subsequent euro-zone sovereign debt crisis. During this period, gilt market liquidity fluctuates significantly with execution costs almost doubling at the peak of the crisis. Consistent with theory, dealer balance sheet constraints and increased funding costs are significant determinants of illiquidity. However, we document that increased funding costs also negatively impact the inter-dealer segment of the market which leads to a further reduction in liquidity. This is consistent with the notion that the inter-dealer segment enables dealers to share risk and manage their inventories. Additionally, gilt market illiquidity is also influenced by instances of reduced competition among dealers. Both of these effects are more pronounced at the peak of the financial crisis and economically significant: a one standard deviation decrease in the fraction of inter-dealer trading leads to an increase in trading costs of about $700K–$1.5 million daily for non-dealers, and a one standard deviation increase in dealer activity concentration leads to an incremental cost of about $270K–$1 million daily.

A Map of Collateral Uses and Flows

Abstract: All flows of secured funding in the financial system are met by flows of collateral in the opposite direction. A network depicting secured funding flows thus implicitly reveals a network of collateral flows. Collateral can also be presented as its own network to show collateral arrangements with bilateral counterparties, triparty banks, and central counterparties; the purpose and incentives of collateral exchanges; and participants involved. We create a collateral map to show how this function of the financial system works, especially with secured funding and derivatives activity. This paper provides insights into the increased demand for collateral, the reduced capacity for banks to act as collateral intermediaries, and examples of risks and vulnerabilities in collateral flows.

Funding Liquidity Risk and the Cross-section of MBS Returns

Abstract: This paper shows that funding liquidity risk is priced in the cross-section of excess returns on agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). We derive a measure of funding liquidity risk from dollar-roll implied financing rates (IFRs), which reflect security-level costs of financing positions in the MBS market. We show that factors representing higher net MBS supply are generally associated with higher IFRs, or higher funding costs. In addition, we find that exposure to systematic funding liquidity shocks embedded in the IFRs is compensated in the cross-section of expected excess returns| agency MBS that are better hedges to funding liquidity shocks on average deliver lower excess returns-and that these premiums are separate from the premiums associated with prepayment risks.

A new multi-factor risk model to evaluate funding liquidity risk of banks

Abstract: The present paper investigates funding liquidity risk of banks. We present a new statistical multi-factor risk model leading to three new funding liquidity risk metrics, thanks to liquidity gap's probability distribution analysis. We test our model on a large sample composed of 593 US banking companies, this allows us to identify some stylized facts regarding the evolution of liquidity risk and its relationship with the size of banking companies. Our main motivation is to develop ‘the contractual maturity mismatch’ monitoring tool proposed within the Basel III reform.

Theory and Regulation of Liquidity Risk Management in Banking.

Abstract: Liquidity risk is now more important than it used to be in the past. The financial crisis has emphasised the importance of liquidity risk to the functioning of banking and financial system. The paper presents a theoretical and regulatory investigation of two types of liquidity risk: funding liquidity risk and market liquidity risk. The paper analyses the different approaches to measure the impact of funding and market liquidity risk in the economics and management of banks. The paper provides also an analysis of the organisational implications of the asset and liability management perspective of liquidity risk. Liquidity risk does not need to be covered by equity but by an adequate volume of liquid assets and highly liquid securities. This is the reason why the regulation of the liquidity risk in banking is focused on liquidity ratio-based financial constraints.

Fragility of Money Markets

Abstract: We provide the first comprehensive theoretical model for money markets encompassing unsecured and secured funding, asset markets, and central bank policy. In our model, leveraged banks invest in assets and raise short-term funds by borrowing in the unsecured and secured money markets. We derive how funding liquidity across money markets is related, explain how a shock to asset values can lead to mutually reinforcing liquidity spirals in both money markets, and show how borrowers' right-to-safety and risk-seeking behavior impacts their liability structure. We derive the socially optimal leverage ratio and funding structure, and show which combination of conventional and unconventional monetary policies and regulatory measures can reduce money market fragility.

Funding Liquidity and Market Liquidity in Government Bonds

Abstract: This study investigates market illiquidity and flow-price dynamics, with particular attention to central banks, using a comprehensive dataset for Indian government bonds. While, theoretically, liquidity provision by central banks should promote market depth and stability, some argue that overly active interventions may actually have the opposite effect. We find that bond market liquidity improves with greater funding liquidity provision by the central bank. The small magnitude of this effect challenges theories implying a tight link between funding liquidity and market liquidity but alleviates concerns that large interventions in either direction - like quantitative easing or its reversal - may be destabilizing.