Showing papers on "Liquidity risk published in 1997"

Commercial bank net interest margins, default risk, interest-rate risk, and off-balance sheet banking

Abstract: This paper tests the hypothesis that banks with more risky loans and higher interest-rate risk exposure would select loan and deposit rates to achieve higher net interest margins. Call Report data for different size classes of banks for 1989–1993 show that the net interest margins of commercial banks reflect both default and interest-rate risk premia. The net interest margins of money-center banks are affected by default risk, but not by interest rate risk, which is consistent with their greater concentration in short-term assets and off-balance sheet (OBS) hedging instruments. By contrast, (super-) regional banking firms are sensitive to interest-rate risk but not to default risk. The data show that OBS activities promote a more diversified, margins-generating asset base than deposit- or equity-financing, and that cross-sectional differences in interest-rate risk and liquidity risk are related to differences in OBS exposure.

Liquidity Provision with Limit Orders and a Strategic Specialist

Abstract: This article presents a microstructure model of liquidity provision in which a specialist with market power competes against a competitive limit order book. General solutions, comparative statics and examples are provided first with uninformative orders and then when order flows are informative. The model is also used to address two optimal market design issues. The first is the effect of "tick" size--for example, eighths versus decimal pricing--on market liquidity. Institutions trading large blocks have a larger optimal tick size than small retail investors, but both prefer a tick size strictly greater than zero. Second, a hybrid specialist/limit order market (like the NYSE) provides better liquidity to small retail and institutional trades, but a pure limit order market (like the Paris Bourse) may offer better liquidity on mid-size orders. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

Liquidity, Banks, and Markets

Abstract: This paper examines the roles of markets and banks when both are active, characterizing the effects of financial market development on the structure and market share of banks. Banks lower the cost of giving investors rapid access to their capital and improve the liquidity of markets by diverting demand for liquidity from markets. Increased participation in markets causes the banking sector to shrink, primarily through reduced holdings of long‐term assets. In addition, increased participation leads to longer‐maturity real and financial assets and a smaller gap between the maturity of financial and real assets.

A Joint Test of Market Segmentation and Exchange Risk Factor in International Capital Market

Abstract: Market segmentation and exchange risk are two main factors that distinguish international financing and investment decisions from domestic ones. Existing studies of market segmentation have been conducted within a framework in which exchange risk is not explicitly recognized. This paper performs a joint test of market segmentation and exchange risk pricing based on individual stock data from seven major countries, outside of the U.S., for the period January 1981 to December 1989. The theoretical framework used is a multifactor model with domestic and world market factors and an exchange risk factor. The maximum likelihood method is used to estimate risk premia, and factor analysis is used to provide additional evidence on the pricing of risk factors. The results indicate that (a) the factor structure of asset returns is internationally heterogeneous, (b) many national capital markets can be described as partially segmented, rather than the polar cases of complete segmentation or integration, and (c) exchange risk is a significant factor affecting asset returns in addition to the domestic and world market risk factors.

Monetary policy operating procedures in industrial countries

Abstract: In recent years monetary policy operating procedures have continued to evolve in the light of changes in the structure and workings of financial markets as well as in the broader economic and political environment. Since the mid-1980s, central banks have further strengthened the market-orientation of policy implementation, cut reserve requirements, widened the range of available instruments, increased the flexibility of liquidity management, sharpened the focus on interest rates as operating targets, improved the transparency of policy signals and shortened the maturity of interest rates serving as the fulcrum of policy. While these trends have resulted to some extent in a continuation of the process of convergence dating back to at least the 1970s, significant differences still exist across countries. This paper reviews current monetary policy implementation procedures within a common framework in order to highlight similarities and remaining differences across countries. It also provides some information about their evolution in recent years and suggests possible explanations for the main forces underlying the observed changes.

Measuring, Forecasting and Explaining Time Varying Liquidity in the Stock Market

Abstract: The paper proposes a new measure of market liquidity, VNET, which directly measures the depth of the market. VNET is constructed from the excess volume of buys or sells during a market event defined by a price movement. As this measure varies over time, it can be forecast and explained. Using NYSE TORQ data, it is found that market depth varies positively but less than proportionally with past volume and negatively with the number of transactions. Both findings suggest that over the day high volumes are associated with an influx of informed traders and reduce market liquidity. The timing of events plays an intimate role in the analysis. High expected volatility as measured by the ACD model of Engle and Russell (1997) reduces expected liquidity. Finally, market depth is smaller when the one-sided trading volume is transacted in a shorter than expected time, providing an estimate of the value of patience.

Monetary policy operating procedures in industrial countries

Abstract: In recent years monetary policy operating procedures have continued to evolve in the light of changes in the structure and workings of financial markets as well as in the broader economic and political environment. Since the mid-1980s, central banks have further strengthened the market-orientation of policy implementation, cut reserve requirements, widened the range of available instruments, increased the flexibility of liquidity management, sharpened the focus on interest rates as operating targets, improved the transparency of policy signals and shortened the maturity of interest rates serving as the fulcrum of policy. While these trends have resulted to some extent in a continuation of the process of convergence dating back to at least the 1970s, significant differences still exist across countries. This paper reviews current monetary policy implementation procedures within a common framework in order to highlight similarities and remaining differences across countries. It also provides some information about their evolution in recent years and suggests possible explanations for the main forces underlying the observed changes.

Alternative Liquidity Measures and Stock Returns

Abstract: . This article compares the properties of several common liquidity measures including the bid-ask spread, the liquidity ratio and firm size. We also use the proportional hazard model to develop a new measure, the relative odds ratio, based on the volume necessary to move prices by a predetermined amount. Although each measure displays a liquidity premium, a composite measure better explaims expected returns, suggesting that liquidity is a multidimensional phenomenon.

On a Preferred Habitat for Liquidity at the Turn-of-the-Year: Evidence from the Term-Repo Market

Abstract: In this article, we document a preference for liquidity at the year-end in the brokered market for general-collateral term-repurchase agreements. Our tests indicate significant increases in the repo rates for one-week through one-month term instruments when the maturities span the turn-of-the-year. We show that the results cannot be consistent with window dressing or with the argument that investors in this market tilt their portfolios away from riskier assets at the year-end. Our results suggest a generalized liquidity premium at year-end that could also explain the survival of the turn-of-the-year effect in equities. This desire for liquidity could be due to perceived risk, but since it appears in short-term general-collateral government repos, it seems more likely attributable to year-end payment patterns.

Measuring the Efficiency of Capital Allocation in Commercial Banking

Abstract: Commercial banks leverage their equity capital with demandable debt that participates in the economy's payments system. The distinctive nature of this debt generates an unusual degree of liquidity risk that can, at times, threaten the payments system. To reduce this threat, insurance protects deposits; and to reduce the moral hazard problems of the debt contract and deposit insurance, bank regulation constrains risk-taking and defines standards of capital adequacy. The inherent liquidity risk of demandable debt as well as potential regulatory penalties for poor financial performance creates the potential for costly episodes of financial distress that affects banks' employment of capital. ; The existence of financial-distress costs implies that many banks are likely to take actions, such as holding additional capital, that increase bank safety at the expense of short-run returns. While such a strategy may reduce average returns in the short run, it may maximize the market value of the bank by protecting charter value and protecting against regulatory interventions. On the other hand, some banks whose charter values are low may have an incentive to follow a higher risk strategy, one that increases average return at the expense of greater risk of financial distress and regulatory intervention. ; This paper examines how banks' employment of capital in their production plans affects their "market value" efficiency. The authors develop a market-based measure of production efficiency and implement it on a sample of publicly traded bank holding companies. Our evidence indicates that banks' efficiency and, hence, the market value of their assets are influenced by the level and allocation of capital. However, even controlling for the effect of size, we find that the influence of equity capital differs markedly between banks with higher capital-to-assets ratios and those with lower ratios. For inefficient banks with higher capital-to-assets ratios, marginal increases in capitalization and asset quality boost their market-value efficiency. For inefficient banks with lower levels of capitalization, the signs of these effects are reversed. Controlling for asset size, it appears that less capitalized banks cannot afford to mimic the investment strategy of more capitalized banks, which may be using this greater capitalization to signal their safety to financial markets.

Managing Banking Risks

Abstract: This book fills a gap in banking literature by providing a professional and sophisticated 'risk' primer for bank directors, executives and staff at every level as well as students, analysts and commentators on the banking scene. The breadth of focus is exceptional in covering the full range of banking risks, rather than the customary specialist segment.The book begins by defining risk itself and discussing how it can be approached in a banking context. It goes on to examine the concepts of volatility, expected and unexpected loss, the role of risk capital, rate of return and the required reward for risk (the 'cost of capital'). The author identifies five generic types of primary banking risk and one universal secondary type. Each of these is explored in turn from solvency and liquidity risks to credit risk, interest rate risk, price risks and operating risks. This treatment gives the reader an insight into modern risk management and hedging techniques, and many other relevant topics. Legal and regulatory issues and constraints are considered within an international frame of reference. The book offers practical guidance on the role of a bank's board and executive management, organisation and co-ordination of risk management.

Financial intermediation versus stock markets in a dynamic intertemporal model

Abstract: We consider the transitions among intragenerational and alternative intergenerational financing and liquidity risk-sharing mechanisms, in an Overlapping Generations model with endogenous levels of long-lived investments. The existence and characterization of a Self-Sustaining Mechanism, stable across generations, are established. The long-run equilibrium outcome, in a Proposal Game across generations, is shown to depend on the risk-aversion and propensity for early liquidity needs of the agents.

Treasury Management: Job Responsibilities, Curricular Development, and Research Opportunities

Abstract: Aaron L. Phillips is the Director of Research for the Treasury Management Association. The Treasury Management Association (TMA) has conducted survey research to identify job responsibilities and knowledge items needed by professionals engaged in treasury management. In addition, TMA's research documents the informational needs of treasury executives, from analysts through chief financial officers. The results of this research suggest that curricular opportunities exist for teaching topics of vital importance to prospective employees in this profession. A major responsibility reported by all respondents, including treasurers and chief financial officers, is liquidity management, which is comprised of cash management, short-term borrowing, and short-term investing.

Liquidity and competition in rural credit markets

Abstract: Agriculture and other sectors of rural America present special challenges to financial markets. These sectors typically are capital intensive, geographically dispersed, and limited in scale and scope of business operations. They are subject to seasonal and cyclical swings in economic conditions, often resulting in liquidity problems at lending institutions serving these sectors. Nonagricultural rural areas experience considerable unevenness in economic performance and outlook and, together with agriculture, are experiencing significant structural change (Henry and Drabenstott). Borrower-lender relationships in rural markets are traditionally characterized by reputation, familiarity, and social closeness (Miller et al., Robison and Hanson). Skills in financial management and the quality of financial information also are more limited in rural versus urban markets (Gladwin et al.).

Information Asymmetry, Investment Horizons and the Dual Role of Public Announcements

Abstract: This paper explores the implications of public announcements for the behavior of capital markets when such announcements simultaneously play two informational roles, publicly revealing information that had been known privately prior to the announcement while creating new information asymmetry in the marketplace. Two types of informed traders are introduced. One type (assumed to be short-term investors) privately forecasts a firm's yet-to-be disclosed earnings and another type (assumed to be long-term investors) gains informational advantage from their superior ability to analyze and interpret the public announcement. It is shown that in the pre-announcement period, the trading aggressiveness of short-term traders is positively related to the depth of the market in the post-announcement period.As a consequence, pre-announcement price efficiency and price volatility are increasing in the liquidity of the post-announcement market. The analysis also demonstrates that trading volume in the pre-announcement period is increasing in the number of long-term investors in the post-announcement period, while decreasing in the precision of their private information.

Debt Valuation and Marketability Risk

Abstract: This paper studies the valuation of corporate debt contracts in an intertemporal setting under uncertainty taking into account the possibility that the bondholder will be unable to sell his asset. The model considers a coupon paying debt contract with default risk in a binomial setting. Randomly matched investors who place different values upon the firm in bankruptcy bargain for the price of the asset in a secondary market. With this framework we are able to isolate the influence of liquidity risk in the pricing of risky debt contracts. This influence is shown to be function of the heterogeneity of investors' valuations and the range of uncertainty concerning potential bankruptcy costs. In particular, even though mean bankruptcy costs may be relatively low, uncertainty about them can generate relatively large spreads. Furthermore this model is capable of generating a large variety of shapes for the term structure of yield spreads. Finally, the model captures the fact that early after the issue, a bond is relatively liquid and later becomes relatively illiquid depending on the underlying asset value.

Listing and the liquidity of bank stocks: revisited

Abstract: This paper investigates the association between listing and liquidity over the January 1991–December 1994 period for a large number of bank stocks. An empirical model is developed in which liquidity (using a measure that reflects the volume-price effects of demand and supply in market price) is a function of listing and certain other (ceteris paribus) variables. The model is virtually identical to the one employed in the previous study of the topic. The empirical results of the current study are compared to those of the prior one. Despite enormous changes in the structure of the financial system and in the banking system, the empirical results are consistent with those of the prior study: listed bank stocks do not appear to have greater liquidity than unlisted bank stocks. In fact, the results suggest that listing adversely affects liquidity. Various potential reasons for this finding are presented in the paper.

Risk Management by Securities Settlement Agents

Abstract: As developing countries search for ways to promote capital formation through the establishment of organized exchanges, they will need to pay more attention to the role of risk management in the securities settlement process. The delivery-versus-payment (DVP) agents that facilitate the process of exchanging securities for funds in most world markets have both the incentive and comparative informational advantage to monitor, measure, and manage risks inherent in the securities settlement system. Unfortunately, most DVP agents have accomplished this task to date through the cumbersome use of position and net debit limits, capital requirements, and collateral requirements. Such limits and requirements are almost everywhere based on relatively arbitrary criteria that may have no relation to the actual replacement cost, principal, or liquidity risk of the transaction, portfolio, or participant on which they are imposed. To remedy this shortcoming in the current state of risk management at DVP agents, this article holds out the possibility of integrated, comprehensive risk management processes that emphasize and rely on forward-looking measures of risk for individual brokers and across brokers. Many risk measures could serve the settlement agent's purposes, including “value at risk” (or “VaR”), “below target risk,”“below-target probability,” and “downside semi-variance.” The actual summary risk measure used for risk monitoring and control is not as important as the methodology used to generate that risk measure. “The goal of such a process,” as the authors put it, “is to ensure that the risks to which a settlement agent and its residual claimants are exposed are those risks to which the agent's shareholders think they are and want to be exposed.”

Optimal allocation of interest rate risk

Abstract: Based on the work of Hellwig (1994), this paper characterizes the optimal allocation of technology-induced interest rate risk in a competitive system of financial intermediation and its interdependence with the provision of liquidity. The analysis is carried out under the assumptions of complete and incomplete information respectively. The implementation of the second best allocation by a financial intermediary is compared to the one achieved in an equity economy in which individuals hold the assets directly.

Entrepreneurial Choice and Performance: A Re-Appraisal of Liquidity and Human Capital Constraints

Abstract: A new theory of entrepreneurial effort demonstrates that reducing liquidity constraints may retard the performance of the self-employed. A two dimensional empirical approach then distinguishes the impact of human and financial capital on both the number and performance of the self-employed. This analysis supports the theory - exogenous financial capital (inheritance) increases the number of self-employed but not their income. It also finds an inverse U-shaped relationship between inheritance and numbers hired by the self-employed. Higher levels of education reduce the number of self-employed but enance their performance. The net effect of education on employment creation is positive.