Showing papers on "R-CAST published in 1980"
Book•
01 Jan 1980
653 citations
TL;DR: These illustrations reveal three major interfaces that must be considered by a decision support system's designer and provide a framework for comparative study of decision support systems and also suggestive of directions for future research and developments in the decision support field.
Abstract: An important aspect of decision support systems (DSS) is their utilization of computational models. To illustrate the evolving roles of models in decision support systems, several representative systems are reviewed. These illustrations reveal three major interfaces that must be considered by a decision support system's designer. Successful treatment of these DSS interfaces depends upon two types of languages: one for directing computations and one for directing data manipulation. Each language type is presented as forming a spectrum of languages. Combined, the two spectra provide a classification scheme for decision support systems. This scheme is both useful as a framework for comparative study of decision support systems and also suggestive of directions for future research and developments in the decision support field.
179 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors review the implications of decision analysis for career decision making (CDM) that might be drawn from recent studies of human information processing and decision making, both in supplementing traditional guidance procedures and in defining criteria used to evaluate CDM.
133 citations
TL;DR: Decision analysis is a process that enhances effective decision making by providing for both logical, systematic analysis and imaginative creativity and application criticisms question how much decision analysis improves actual decision making.
Abstract: Making decisions is what you do when you don't know what to do. Decision analysis is a process that enhances effective decision making by providing for both logical, systematic analysis and imaginative creativity. The procedure permits representing the decision-maker's information and preferences concerning the uncertain, complex, and dynamic features of the decision problem. As decision analysis has become more accepted and influential the ethical responsibility of decision analysts has increased. Analysts must be sensitive to assuming improper roles of advocacy and to participating in analyses whose means or ends are ethically repugnant. Criticisms of decision analysis are examined at three levels. Application criticisms question how much decision analysis improves actual decision making. Conceptual criticisms argue that the decomposition and recomposition of the decision analysis process may lend to a misshapen framing of the problem or to a suppression of “soft” or “fragile” considerations. Criticisms...
113 citations
TL;DR: Several systems that fit the generic decision support system idea, but are (for the most part) not the customary kinds of systems encountered in business applications, are described.
Abstract: A formal, generic description of decision support systems is introduced. This description views a decision support system as having three principal components: a language system, a knowledge system, and a problem processing system. Several systems that fit the generic decision support system idea, but are (for the most part) not the customary kinds of systems encountered in business applications, are described. The concepts and techniques employed in these systems can make important contributions to the emergence of more powerful business-oriented decision support systems.
111 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a more naturalistic de-cision task was used to examine the effect of task structure on the availability of knowledge about the task and found that the cognitive theory based on non-probabilistic inference rules interacting with simple recall processes gave equal or better quantitative predictions.
Abstract: John FoxUniversity of Sheffield, Sheffield, EnglandTheories of decision making are reviewed, particularly those that shed light onclinical decision making. Two approaches are examined in detail, traditionalprescriptive theories (derived from probability theory) and theories based onnonprobabilistic inference processes with a supportive memory mechanism. Anexperiment using a laboratory analogue of clinical diagnosis supplied data aboutseveral aspects of the decision process including information seeking and theterminal decision. A second task interleaved with the diagnostic task was de-signed to provide some insight into the subjects' organization of the diagnostictask material in memory using the proposition confirmation/disconnrmationmethod. Systematic effects of task structure on the availability of knowledgeabout the task were obtained. In two computer simulations the traditionalprescriptive approach to decision making gave a moderately good account ofthe behavior observed in the diagnostic task, but the cognitive theory based onnonprobabilistic inference rules interacting with simple recall processes gaveequal or better quantitative predictions. It is concluded that the nonprobabil-istic approach holds considerable promise for the description of complex deci-sion processes.From an information-processing standpoint,human decision making depends on the inter-action of two main cognitive components: thevarious logical and inferential processes thatcontribute to the final decision and, at leastconceptually distinct, the processes that makethe knowledge or data available that are re-quired for the decision task at hand. Untilrecently, however, decision theorists havebeen more preoccupied with the mathematicaldescription of human decision behavior thanwith a general cognitive account of its processes(see, e.g., Slovic, Fischoff, & Lichtenstein,1977). The tide has recently begun to turn withwork like that on heuristics by Tversky andKahneman (1974), but we have not yet reachedthe point where decision processes can beMany thanks to Richard M. Young for his criticalreading of an early draft of this article, and particularthanks to Vicki Bruce, whose careful and insightfulcomments contributed so much to the final manuscript.Requests for reprints should be sent to John Fox,Medical Research Council, Social and Applied Psy-chology Unit, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN,England.described in any detail, certainly not decisionsof natural or everyday complexity.This study looks at a more naturalistic de-cision task than is usual and examines somealternative theoretical frameworks for charac-terizing the decision process. The contrast thatemerges is that between the decision theoristswho have tried to develop algebraic and sta-tistical models that are largely fre of performa-tive elements and the thrust elsewhere incognitive psychology, which has been towardmore complete accounts. The decision theoristshave, notably, failed to suggest what sorts ofinference or problem-solving processes de-cision makers typically engage in or howknowledge influences and interacts with thoseprocesses.For illustration we focus on a task modeledon clinical decision making, a field in which theimportance of knowledge is particularly promi-nent. Several possible theoretical accounts ofclinical decision behavior are briefly reviewed,and a decision study is described, which isdesigned to shed light on some of these pro-posals. Finally, two computer simulations of
82 citations
01 Jan 1980
61 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the use of signed diagraphs to represent decision makers' anticipations as cognitive maps elicited on the basis of semi-directive interviews has been discussed.
57 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a conceptual framework is suggested for characterizing personal decision situations by specifying salient characteristics of the decision problem (possibility of continuity, reversibility, range of effects, and time pressure) and the decision maker (cognitive, motivational and coping features).
41 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: Analysis of information gathered by a child abuse and neglect project shed slight on aspects of decision making by the project worker.
Abstract: Analysis of information gathered by a child abuse and neglect project shed slight on aspects of decision making by the project worker. Language: en
TL;DR: There's a gap between decision scientists and decision makers as discussed by the authors, and it's our responsibility as decision scientists to close this gap, and we need to build some bridges to bridge this gap.
Abstract: There's a gap between decision scientists and decision makers. The decision scientists don't understand decision making; and the decision makers don't understand decision scientists. It's our responsibility as decision scientists to close this gap. I've been applying Management Science methods to the solution of business problems for about 25 years now. In my observation, the gap is growing wider rather than narrower. It's time we built some bridges!
TL;DR: These guidelines aim to improve the interface, feedback, flexibility, and control of the integrated system of a districting algorithm integrated into an existing decision support system.
Abstract: This article reports on an application for which a districting algorithm was integrated into an existing decision support system. From this experience a set of guidelines was derived which may be helpful to the system designer who has a similar task. These guidelines aim to improve the interface, feedback, flexibility, and control of the integrated system.
Book•
01 Nov 1980
TL;DR: The Modern Decision Group examines the formation and management of decision groups in the modern era and the role of the chair and member in this process.
Abstract: Introduction The Modern Decision Group PART ONE: RULES FOR EFFECTIVE GROUP DECISION MAKING Recruitment of Participants Preparations for Effective Decision Making Templates for Action The Agenda, the Minutes, and Reports Achieving an Effective Meeting Mechanics of Decision Group Process PART TWO: POSITIONS AND ROLES FOR EFFECTIVE GROUP DECISION MAKING The Chair The Member The Staffer The Executive Roles in Meetings PART THREE: DIFFERENT KINDS OF DECISION GROUPS The Board The Advisory Group The Staff Group PART FOUR: SPECIAL TOPICS Evaluation and Accountability Developing a Perspective
TL;DR: In this paper, the process of decision making at the small group level was treated by applying the cognitive information processing model to the methods by which search behavior reduces uncertainty in the collective environment.
Abstract: Although decision-making analysis has been widely pursued in political science and other fields, most emphasize an outcome orientation, ignoring (or assuming away) the process by which decisions are made. This study treats the process of decision making at the small group level by applying the cognitive information processing model to the methods by which search behavior reduces uncertainty in the collective environment. After examining the theoretical constraints on search behavior, an experiment is performed on student subjects with two of the constraints—information level and decision rule—operationalized as treatment variables on the volume and type of search by individuals in a small group environment. The findings suggest that increasing information availability and requiring consensus decisions will increase search, but that subjects are easily overloaded with information, increasing—not reducing—their uncertainty about their decisions.
01 Oct 1980
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe two computer-based decision aids which are structured using decision analytic methodology, RSCREEN (Rapid Screening of decision options), which is an interactive computer software program that assists decision makers in a crisis situation characterized by severe constraints on time.
Abstract: : Decision templates are prestructured procedural aids for evaluating various alternative courses of action available to a decision maker. This report describes two computer-based decision aids which are structured using decision analytic methodology. The first aid, RSCREEN (Rapid SCREENing of decision options), is an interactive computer software program that assists decision makers in a crisis situation characterized by severe constraints on time, detailed information processing procedures, and training in evaluating several different courses of action. Each decision template in the RSCREEN aid encompasses the critical elements of the political-military situation in much the same manner as a well-developed contingency plan. For example, if a decision maker is faced with the immediate evacuation of diplomatic personnel from a hostile foreign country, he/she can draw on the RSCREEN aid for relevant data on evacuation procedures in general, and to assess his/her particular problem in light of these previous evacuation procedures.
Book•
01 Jan 1980
TL;DR: McClure as mentioned in this paper published Information for Academic Library Decision Making: The Case for Organizational Information Management (Contributions in Librarianship and Information Science) in pdf format.
Abstract: If you are looking for a book by Charles R. McClure Information for Academic Library Decision Making: The Case for Organizational Information Management (Contributions in Librarianship and Information Science) in pdf format, then you've come to the loyal site. We furnish the complete edition of this book in PDF, txt, ePub, DjVu, doc forms. You may reading Information for Academic Library Decision Making: The Case for Organizational Information Management (Contributions in Librarianship and Information Science) online by Charles R. McClure or download. Withal, on our site you can reading guides and different artistic eBooks online, or downloading their. We wish draw on regard what our website not store the eBook itself, but we give reference to website where you may downloading either reading online. So if you have necessity to downloading pdf Information for Academic Library Decision Making: The Case for Organizational Information Management (Contributions in Librarianship and Information Science) by Charles R. McClure, in that case you come on to the faithful site. We own Information for Academic Library Decision Making: The Case for Organizational Information Management (Contributions in Librarianship and Information Science) PDF, ePub, txt, doc, DjVu forms. We will be happy if you get back us again and again.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate three perplexing phenomena, all of which are familiar to the Review's readers, which they call the "Three Phenomena of Failure" and "Three Paradoxes of Failure".
01 Sep 1980
TL;DR: In this paper, the use of computer-based decision templates in a National Military Command Center-like environment is described, and two new decision template aids are designed: OPSEL (option selection) and R-Screen (rapid screening of options).
Abstract: : The purpose of this research was to demonstrate and evaluate the use of computer-based decision templates in a National Military Command Center-like environment. Decision templates are prestructured procedural aids for evaluating various alternative courses of action available to a decision maker. The computer-based decision aids described in this report were structured using decision analytic methodology. Prototypes of these aids were designed, implemented, and tested under the sponsorship of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) between 1976-1978 at the headquarters of the U.S. European Command. The objectives were to redesign and improve the prototype decision aids; to evaluate the improved aids; and to study the possibility of incorporating decision templates in military command and control systems. Two new decision template aids were designed: OPSEL (option selection) and R-Screen (rapid screening of options). R-SCREEN was designed to support those situations wherein less than two hours is available for reaching a decision, and the user has virtually no technical familiarity with decision analysis. The OPSEL aid supports those situations wherein two to four hours are available, and the user has substantial technical expertise in decision analysis.
01 Apr 1980
TL;DR: This report describes two computer-assisted decision aids which are designed to perform preliminary decision analyses in the absence of a professional decision analyst and for a restricted set of decision problems.
Abstract: : Decision analysis is a technology which offers the decision maker a logical structure for solving a specific problem. Through the process of decision analysis, the decision maker may select from several options the one that best suits his/her needs. In practical applications, most decision analytic techniques require a specially trained decision analyst and a sizeable amount of time and expense. This report describes two computer-assisted decision aids which are designed to perform preliminary decision analyses in the absence of a professional decision analyst and for a restricted set of decision problems. The first decision aid, QVAL (Quick Evaluation), has been implemented on an IBM 5110 portable computer and is ready for operation on an experimental basis. QVAL is an interactive program designed to probe the user's memory for a complete set of attributes together with the scores and weights for a consistent evaluation of a set of options. The second decision aid, GenTree (Generic Tree Structuring), is still in the planning stage, but promises to be very valuable in storing experience and knowledge gained while working on problems and applying it to guide the analysis of subsequent ones. By utilizing prior knowledge stored in the GenTree database, this decision aid would approximate the performance of a decision analyst on familiar problem types. In contrast, QVAL would more resemble the performance of the decision analyst on a completely new application area. With the continuing progress being made in the fields of artificial intelligence and interactive computer graphics, more sophisticated computer- assisted decision aids of this nature may be designed.
TL;DR: The paper identifies classes of clinical decision problems which are amenable to decision analysis and proposes ways of adapting the theory to clinical practice and some reported applications cannot be practically implemented.
TL;DR: The model formalizes the use of information before a treatment is chosen, taking account of prior information collected by the doctor from laboratory and clinical exploration, and chooses the best treatment according to the patient's preference structure.
Abstract: This paper presents a decision model for a serious medical problem: the diagnosis and treatment of undifferentiated liver disease with jaundice. The model formalizes the use of information before a treatment is chosen, taking account of prior information collected by the doctor from laboratory and clinical exploration. Then the model chooses the best treatment according to the patient's preference structure.
Since the best treatment in each case depends on the patient's preference for consequences, this aspect is central to the application of such models. Thus a main objective is to find a suitable criterion to measure the consequences in order that each patient's attitude can be taken into account. Our model was computerized and tested with fifty patients: the program duplicated in forty-four cases the decisions of expert doctors.
The model overcomes some of the difficulties observed in the manipulation of probabilities by clinicians. The results suggest that a Decision Analysis model may be a useful way to clarify the decision process of expert clinicians and to help in the education of new doctors. Finally, this kind of program can play a role in automating medical decision-making in such a way that the knowledge of the best experts can be made widely available.
TL;DR: Using data collected to analyze the needs of the elderly, statistical decision theory is used to analyzed the disparate decision frameworks brought into the decision-making process by major participants and illustrates the consequences for programs of different decision frameworks.
Abstract: Many decisions in administering human service programs, as well as other govern ment programs, involve value conflicts that often go unrecognized. This article uses statistical decision theory to analyze the disparate decision frameworks brought into the decision-making process by major participants. Using data collected to analyze the needs of the elderly, it illustrates the consequences for programs of different decision frameworks.
Book•
01 Jan 1980
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a model for participatory decision-making, which they suggest will lead to a more positive organizational climate and a higher level of staff morale, and demonstrate that their model can lead to better organizational performance.
Abstract: The writers present here their model for participatory decision making. Its successful implementation, they suggest, will lead to a more positive organizational climate and a higher level of staff morale.
19 May 1980
TL;DR: The focus in the design and development of RAINBOW is placed on the loosely structured decision situation where the objective functions are given only implicitly and should be approximated by the decision maker as the decision making process proceeds.
Abstract: This paper presents a conversational multiobjective decision support system. The system is called RAINBOW: Resource Allocation in Business Operation under Uncertain Worth. Our focus in the design and development of RAINBOW is placed on the loosely structured decision situation where the objective functions are given only implicitly and, as such, should be approximated by the decision maker as the decision making process proceeds.
01 Jan 1980
01 Nov 1980-International Journal of Human-computer Studies \/ International Journal of Man-machine Studies
TL;DR: An adaptive program has been developed which incorporates many of these factors into a decision model and is designed to infer the operator's decision policy by using a training algorithm based on pattern recognition techniques.
Abstract: Management of communications between a remote system and a supervisory human operator is viewed as a recurrent, complex decision task The selection of information for transmission to the operator is a subjective, risky decision involving many factors—system state, operator capabilities, communications costs, and channel limitations, among others An adaptive program has been developed which incorporates many of these factors into a decision model The program is designed to infer the operator's decision policy by using a training algorithm based on pattern recognition techniques Some exploratory studies of the approach are described