Showing papers on "Runaway climate change published in 2018"

An integrated assessment of INDCs under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: an implementation of C 3 IAM

Abstract: A series of global actions have been made to address climate change. As a recent developed climate policy, Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) have renewed attention to the importance of exploring temperature rise levels lower than 2 °C, in particular a long-term limit of 1.5 °C, compared to the preindustrial level. Nonetheless, achieving the 2 °C target under the current INDCs depends on dynamic socioeconomic development pathways. Therefore, this study conducts an integrated assessment of INDCs by taking into account different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). To that end, the CEEP-BIT research community develops the China’s Climate Change Integrated Assessment Model (C3IAM) to assess the climate change under SSPs in the context of with and without INDCs. Three SSPs, including “a green growth strategy” (SSP1), “a more middle-of-the-road development pattern” (SSP2) and “further fragmentation between regions” (SSP3) form the focus of this study. Results show that after considering INDCs, mitigation costs become very low and they have no evident positive changes in three SSPs. In 2100, a temperature rise would occur in SSP1-3, which is 3.20, 3.48 and 3.59 °C, respectively. There are long-term difficulties to keep warming well below 2 °C and pursue efforts toward 1.5 °C target even under INDCs. A drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is needed in order to mitigate potentially catastrophic climate change impacts. This work contributes on realizing the hard link between the earth and socioeconomic systems, as well as extending the economic models by coupling the global CGE model with the economic optimum growth model. In C3IAM, China’s energy consumption and emissions pattern are investigated and refined. This study can provide policy makers and the public a better understanding about pathways through which different scenarios could unfold toward 2100, highlights the real mitigation and adaption challenges faced by climate change and can lead to formulating effective policies.

Climate change : the science of global warming and our energy future

Abstract: PrefaceAbbreviations1. Climate in Context2. The Character of the Atmosphere3. The World Ocean4. The Carbon Cycle and How It Influences Climate5. A Scientific Framework for Thinking About Climate Change6. Learning from Climates Past7. A Century of Warming and Some Consequences8. More Consequences: The Sensitive Arctic and Sea-Level Rise9. Climate Models and the Future10. Energy and the FutureNotesGlossaryBibliographyIndex

Investors and stranded asset risk: evidence from shareholder responses to carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) events

Abstract: To avoid catastrophic climate change risk, the case for fossil fuel reserves not being burned has become stronger. This is particularly the case for coal, as the highest emitter of CO2 per unit of ...

Catastrophic climate change and forest tipping points:: blind spots in international politics and policy

Abstract: Scientists believe that humanity has already crossed the core planetary boundary for climate change, and is closer to crossing thresholds that trigger abrupt and irreversible environmental changes. Consequently, academia and the international political community should not disregard the prospect of a catastrophic environmental event. However, discussions about climate change usually assume the resilience of potentially deteriorating terrestrial‐biosphere carbon sinks and rarely acknowledge catastrophic climate risk. Reviewing the latest scientific evidence on anthropogenic climate change, as well as the current and projected threats to the resilience of key large forest biomes, and combining them with the profound political frailties of the Paris Climate Agreement, this article argues that catastrophic climate risk is much more serious and likely than most of humanity is able to perceive and should thus be seriously considered. It emphasizes the massive gap between science and political action and how cognitive, cultural, institutional, and political limitations hinder our capacity to envisage, prevent, and ultimately manage catastrophic climate change. The article concludes by briefly raising awareness regarding the role that academia should play in catastrophic climate risk reduction.

Prospective Grandfathering: Anticipating the Energy Transition Problem

Abstract: Legal change has the potential to disrupt settled expectations and property rights. The Takings Clause provides protection from the most significant costs by requiring compensation following a change in the law, but threats of takings claims can discourage policymakers from adopting sound laws and policies. If specific legal changes can be anticipated far enough in advance, are there tactics available to reduce the risk of takings claims and blunt their political force in the future? We identify innovative tools that preserve regulatory flexibility so that legal changes can avoid takings liability, and we do so specifically in the context of natural gas and the acute threat of climate change. Natural gas poses a particular challenge to policymakers today. Rapid and widespread proliferation of natural gas is essential if we are to make major progress in reducing carbon emissions, but natural gas is often referred to as a bridge fuel because we will eventually have to pivot away from fossil fuel-based electric generation to reduce the risk of catastrophic climate change. Without timely intervention, investments in natural gas infrastructure today may result in vested property rights that the Takings Clause may then protect against significant regulatory changes. We argue that developing a record that constrains the reasonable expectations of investments in natural gas will help to preserve regulatory flexibility in the future. More aggressively, we also propose “prospective grandfathering” as a regulatory innovation. Announcing but delaying the adoption of new regulations, combined with accelerated cost recovery for utilities, should immunize future governments from takings claims if and when climate change compels movement away from natural gas as part of the de-carbonization of our energy supply. These new tools offer promise beyond natural gas, however, and provide a new way of addressing anticipated legal change.

Synthetic carbohydrate compounds and their integration with renewable electricity supplies

Abstract: The world runs a serious risk of sliding into catastrophic climate change. It is to all practical purposes impossible to bring the emissions of greenhouse gases to a halt straight away. This article discusses a number of sources of uncertainty and the possibility of bias in climate forecasting. It identifies a specific approach towards rapid decarbonization combined with a systematic reduction in fossil fuel extraction: the manufacture of synthetic hydrocarbon compounds for use as fuel as well as plastics, using carbon dioxide from power stations and cement factories as feedstock during a transitional phase. Policymakers and even researchers working on renewable energy seem to be insufficiently aware of the potential of this mature chemical technology to reduce emissions. The paper also surveys several economic and managerial issues regarding the implementation of the transition to a world using only renewable energy, and provides some information concerning the latest state of the technology of renewable electricity generation.

Challenging conventional wisdom: Experimental evidence on heterogeneity and coordination in avoiding a collective catastrophic event

Abstract: Avoiding a catastrophic climate change event is a global public good characterized by several dimensions, notably heterogeneity between the parties involved. It is often argued that such heterogeneity between countries is a major obstacle to cooperative climate policy. We challenge this belief by experimentally simulating two important heterogeneities, in wealth and loss, when dangerous climate change occurs. We find that under loss heterogeneity the success rate in achieving sufficient mitigation to prevent catastrophic climate change is higher than with homogeneous parties. We also observe that neither endowment heterogeneity nor the combination of endowment and loss heterogeneities lead to significantly different success rates than with homogeneous parties. Our findings suggest that heterogeneities may facilitate rather than hinder successful international climate policy negotiations.

Beef Consumption Reduction and Climate Change Mitigation

Abstract: Keeping global temperature rises below two degrees Celsius is a targeted international community goal. The literature suggests that it is important to explicitly consider the consumption side, as well as the production side to achieve this goal. However, the lack of awareness among the public related to the linkage of the livestock sector and climate change may hinder consumers to change their consumption behavior to reduce Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. This study has two purposes. First, we quantify the environmental loading of U.S. beef sector by calculating emission levels over the period of 1990-2017. Beef cattle is one of the most emission-intensive sectors, which is responsible for 54% of total GHGs from livestock. Following International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guideline, we identify three sources of emissions, including enteric fermentation, manure management, and manure left on pastures. Second, we provide an understanding of consumption-environmental connection related to the beef industry. This knowledge might help to avoid the catastrophic climate change consequences in the future.

Beef consumption reduction and climate change mitigation

Abstract: Researchers believe that greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from livestock are an emerging problem. Beef cattle is one of the most emission-intensive sectors, which is responsible for 54% of total GHGs from livestock. This study has two purposes. First, we quantify the environmental loading of U.S. beef sector by calculating emission levels over the period 1970-2014. Following Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guideline, we identify three sources of emissions, including enteric fermentation, manure management, and manure left on pastures. Second, we provide an understanding of consumption-environmental connection related to the beef industry. We used Tire 1 method calculations in this study. This method will provide the basic information for establishing policies to mitigate climate change. We encourage to use Tire 2 method in future studies. It is also recommended to see the impact of changing geographical locations of cattle farm to the regions that have lower emission factors in future studies. It t is concluded that providing information to the public regarding livestock and climate change relationship would be beneficial. Media attention is needed to convey this message to the public that eating more meat is environmentally detrimental, and we need to change our diet to confine GHG emissions. This knowledge might help develop schemes to avoid the catastrophic climate change consequences in the future.

A Global Consumer-Driven Low-Carbon Investment Fund for Development and Adaptation

Abstract: A successful response to climate change offers the greatest public health opportunity of the century, but intervention is needed to prevent catastrophic climate change and to realise this tantalising possibility. A global investment fund for development, R&D, and low-carbon investments can succeed, with long-term dividends used for adaptation to the climate. It can be funded by numerous small voluntarily paid levies on purchases and transactions, encouraged by global icons, and paid by multinational companies that benefit from good publicity and growing markets. A grassroots response can start arbitrarily small, but aspire to include all transactions.