Showing papers on "Surprise published in 1998"

Answering Back: Girls, Boys and Feminism in Schools

Abstract: Answering Back exposes the volatility of gender reform in many different schools and classrooms. It tells stories in close up and from below, allowing everyone to talk: anxious boys, naughty girls, cantankerous teachers, pontificating principals and feisty feminists. This book challenges many sacred ideas about gender reform in schools and will surprise and unsettle teachers and researchers. It draws on a deep knowledge of gender issues in schools and of feminist theories, policies and practices. It is compelling and provocative reading at the leading edge.

Surprise and schema strength

Abstract: Through 4 experiments, the author investigated the effects of stimuli discrepant with schemas of varying strength on 3 components of surprise: the interruption of ongoing activities (indexed by response time increase), the focusing of attention on the schema-discrepant event (indexed by memory performance), and the feeling of surprise (indexed by self-reports). Response times were consistently found to increase with schema strength. This effect was attributed to the increasing difficulty of schema revision. In contrast, memory for the schema-discrepant event was not affected by schema strength, supporting the hypothesis that schema-discrepant stimuli are stored in memory with a distinct tag. Finally, self-reports of surprise intensity varied with schema strength only if they were made immediately after the surprising event without any intervening questions, suggesting that self-reports of surprise are highly susceptible to memory distortions.

You'll Never Believe This: Irony and Hyperbole in Expressing Surprise

Abstract: Three experiments compared how people comprehend irony and hyperbole as expressing surprise. Experiment 1 demonstrated that, when irony and hyperbole are used together, they express more surprise than if either is used alone. There was no difference between the degree of surprise expressed by hyperbole and irony, although both expressed more surprise than literal commentary. Experiment 2 revealed that, when a speaker has exaggerated about some unexpected event, as much surprise is expressed by very slight, realistically possible hyperbole as by outlandish, impossible hyperbole. In a third experiment the range of possible levels of hyperbole tested in Experiment 2 was shown to cause differences in how easy it was to determine that a speaker was surprised at some turn of events. The results are discussed in terms of theories of irony and hyperbole comprehension.

Imaginable surprise in global change science

Abstract: Decisionmakers at all scales (individuals, firms, and local, national, and international governmental organizations) are concerned about reducing their vulnerability to (or the likelihood of) unexpected events, 'surprises.' After briefly and selectively reviewing the literature on uncertainty and surprise, we adopt a definition of 'surprise' that does not include the strict requirement that it apply to a wholly unexpected outcome, but rather recognizes that many events are often anticipated by some, even if not most observers. Thus, we define 'imaginable surprise' as events or processes that depart from the expectations of some definable community. Therefore, what gets labelled as 'surprise' depends on the extent to which what happens departs from community expectations and on the salience of the problem. We offer a typology of surprise that distinguishes imaginable surprises from risk and uncertainty, and develops several kinds of impediments to overcoming ignorances. These range from the need for more '...

The Surprise Examination or Unexpected Hanging Paradox

Abstract: (1998). The Surprise Examination or Unexpected Hanging Paradox. The American Mathematical Monthly: Vol. 105, No. 1, pp. 41-51.

A Theory of the Onset of Currency Attacks

Abstract: The swiftness and devastating impact of recent financial crises have taken many market participants by surprise and pose challenges for economists seeking a theory of the onset of a crisis. We propose such a theory based on two features. The actions of diverse economic actors which undermine the currency are mutually reinforcing, while the fragmented nature of the media create small disparities in their information. In such circumstances, the beliefs of market participants can be tracked in the same way as the economic fundamentals, and an attack is triggered when the economic fundamentals deteriorate sufficiently to fall below the minimum level of market confidence necessary to support the currency. We give a characterization of such a minimum level of confidence.

Enterprise.Com: Market Leadership in the Information Age

Abstract: The Next Wave The Network-Centric Era and the Changing Workplace The Web: Forger of the New IT Economics The Web/Virtual Office-Based Era The Market-Facing Enterprise Knowledge Management: The Sustainable Competitive Edge Converging and Transforming Industries The Great American Economic Surprise The Race for Global Leadership The Challenges Ahead.

Managing Outside Pressure: Strategies for Preventing Corporate Disasters

Abstract: Caught by Surprise. Activist Groups and the Stakeholder Concept. Corporate Early Awareness Models. Company Issue Checklist. Activist Issue Checklist. The Checklists Applied: Early Awareness Systems. Case Studies. Conclusions. References. Index.

The virtual ante-room: assessing presence through expectation and surprise

Abstract: We describe an experiment where subjects entered a virtual replica of the laboratory in which the experiment was taking place. They then moved through a door to a new virtual location and carried out the main experimental task, and then returned to the virtual lab. In the real lab they had learned to search for box-shaped objects and point at a telephone whenever it rang. In the virtual lab, additional colouredboxes were introduced, and although the virtual phone position was not moved, the real phone of which it was a replica was moved. On exit from the virtual to the real laboratory, subjects were asked about their degree of surprise that the additional coloured boxes were not there and that the phone had been moved. This was in the context of an experiment to assess the influence of body movement on presence. This paper reportson the relationship between this surprise factor and the presence reported for the main part of the experiment. It was found that the surprise factor and reported presence were significantly positively correlated, suggesting a new approach towards a behavioural measure of presence.

Enhancements in the sense of surprise in a RPG

Abstract: Each character that makes an appearance in a game is provided with a program, which is independent of other programs, for deciding the action of the character, and with a program counter. These mutually independent programs are run in parallel. The speed at which the program advances differs for each character. A character representing the player is endowed with the highest speed of advance, and this character is given the highest priority in parallel processing as well. Interaction among characters is realized by communication among the programs, and an order of priority is assigned to communication among programs. As a result, the game is provided with a greater sense of surprise and the program game is easier to create.

Conditional Probabilities, Potential Surprise, and the Conjunction Fallacy

Abstract: Tversky and Kahneman (1983) found that a relationship of positive conditional dependence between the components of a conjunction of two events increases the prevalence of the conjunction fallacy. Consistent with this finding, the results of two experiments reveal that dependence leads to higher estimates for the conjunctive probability and a higher incidence of the fallacy. However, contrary to the theoretical account proposed by Tversky and Kahneman, the actual magnitude of the conditional relationship does not directly affect the extent of the fallacy; all that is necessary is for a positive conditional relationship to exist. The pattern of results obtained can be accounted for in terms of Shackle's (1969) “potential surprise” theory of subjective probability. Surprise theory predicts that the impact of the conditional event will be at its maximum where the relationship is a negative one. Tversky and Kahneman's model, on the other hand, predicts the maximum effect when the relationship is positive. In all 12 scenarios tested, multiple regression analysis revealed that the standardized beta weight associated with the conditional event was greater when the relationship was a negative one. Thus the outcome was supportive of the surprise model rather than Tversky and Kahneman's account.

Money or the Machine Money and Votes in Chicago Aldermanic Elections

Abstract: This article presents results of a study of the impact of money on Chicago city council elections in 1991 and 1995 Chicago, with its reputation for strong party organizations, would be the last place most people would expect to find campaign expenditures playing an important role To our surprise, however, the results of the analysis indicate that campaign spending is related to candidates' vote share Even Chicago, it seems, has not escaped the trend toward cash-based, candidate-centered campaigns.

A Theory of the Onset of Currency Attacks

Abstract: The swiftness and devastating impact of recent financial crises have taken many market participants by surprise, and pose challenges for economists seeking a theory of the onset of a crisis. We propose such a theory based on two features. The actions of diverse economic actors which undermine the currency are mutually reinforcing, while the fragment nature of the media create small disparities in their information. In such circumstances, the beliefs of market participants can be tracked in the same way as the economic fundamentals, and an attach is triggered when the economic fundamentals deteriorate sufficiently to fall below the minimum level of market confidence necessary to support the currency. We give a characterization of such a minimum level of confidence.

Improving Service and Increasing Patient Satisfaction

Abstract: What keeps patients coming back to the same practice? The author's answer may surprise you.

Exploring a new typology of advertising appeals: basic, versus social, emotional advertising in a global setting

Abstract: This study proposes, and empirically examines a new typology of emotional global appeals in terms of consumers' similarity of response. Each basic emotion possesses an evolutionary survival value, is associated with a different pattern of autonomic nervous system activity and facial expression, and is acquired early in the socialisation process. Basic emotions are universal in all demographic groups. Alternatively, social emotions are the blends of basic emotions. They are culturally specific because they are the social reactions that are acquired later in the socialisation process. Six Benetton ads were used to generate three pairs in the basic-social emotional hierarchy: happiness versus humour, love versus warmth, and sadness versus surprise. Two hundred and forty-seven male and female undergraduate consumers from the US, UK, Taiwan, and mainland China served as the subjects. Ads that employ basic emotions (happiness, love, and sadness) are found to generate more similar emotional responses among globa...

On the psychological basis of economics and social psychology

Abstract: The emotive (Gossen) equation in conjunction with its expectational constraints, comprising a formulation or model of the individual's expectational plan, is applied to elementary cases in economics and social psychology thereby uniting psychology, social psychology, and economics within one methodology. This canonical formulation represents the individual's future (intertemporal) uncertainties and possible choices, and resulting experiences, accounting for emotive- and risk-discounting of expected instant utility. In an additional deepening of neoclassical economics, expected intertemporal utility is mapped onto a real-time datum as anticipatory feeling-state. Following surprise (e.g., by a creative thought, or any unexpected occurrence), of the several candidate expectational plans that the individual may consider, the plan which provides the maximum anticipatory feeling-state is chosen. This (operative) plan guides behavior until again negated by surprise. The instant utility approach is applied to an elementary example of capital function, and to two cases of economically interacting individuals, the second of which models an imposed stereotypic bias on the expected productivity of one of the agents. The effect of this bias on the welfare of the cooperating agents, and on the capital versus finished good exchange price, is addressed. Inasmuch as the Gossen equation acquires empirical substantiation from neuropsychological investigations, it may be concluded that a unifying connection between the human and natural sciences has been realized.

The Genetics of Plant Restoration: An Overview and a Surprise

Abstract: populations. G enetic guidelines for the restoration of vegetation and the reintroduction of species, especially those involving rare plants, have been the subject of much debate in recent years. Some of the questions stewardship professionals are facing are: When reintroducing a plant, should one always use a local seed source? What if there are no local populations with adequate genetic diversity? Might this lead to inbreeding depression or reproductive failure ? On the other hand, if one attempts to maximize genetic diversity in the reintroduced population by using propagules from many sources, might this lead to outbreeding depression? At what point should one consider augmenting a population with non-local genotypes? Perhaps most important, how does the practitioner identify species that may be at special risk, and how can he or she deal with them in a practical way? In an attempt to answer some of these questions and promote scientifically-based stewardship of natural resources, a symposium titled \"Plant Population Genetics: Bridging the Gap Between Research and Practice\" was held at the Chicago Botanic Garden in October 1997. The symposium was intended to provide an overview of current research in the field of plant population genetics including inbreeding and outbreeding depression, the relationship between reproductive biology and population genetics, and techniques for measuring genetic diversity. The symposium also focused on the role of genetics in restoration and rare-plant reintroduction projects. The invited speakers were Donald Waller, Mary Jo Godt, Barbara Schaal, Jeffrey Karron, Michele Dudash, Laura Galloway, Jim Reinartz, Marlin Bowles, and Larry Stritch. Many of the speakers discussed fitness declines associated with inbreeding, a common phenomenon in small populations, including natural, ex situ nursery, and reintroduced populations.

To give a surprise exam, use game theory

Abstract: This paper proposes a game-theoretic solution of the surprise examination problem. It is argued that the game of “matching pennies” provides a useful model for the interaction of a teacher who wants her exam to be surprising and students who want to avoid being surprised. A distinction is drawn between prudential and evidential versions of the problem. In both, the teacher should not assign a probability of zero to giving the exam on the last day. This representation of the problem provides a diagnosis of where the backwards induction argument, which “proves” that no surprise exam is possible, is mistaken.

Exploring The Concept Of Climate Surprises: A Review Of The Literature On The Concept Of Surprise And How It Is Related To Climate Change

Abstract: This report examines the concept of climate surprise and its implications for environmental policymaking. Although most integrated assessment models of climate change deal with average values of change, it is usually the extreme events or surprises that cause the most damage to human health and property. Current models do not help the policymaker decide how to deal with climate surprises. This report examines the literature of surprise in many aspects of human society: psychology, military, health care, humor, agriculture, etc. It draws together various ways to consider the concept of surprise and examines different taxonomies of surprise that have been proposed. In many ways, surprise is revealed to be a subjective concept, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief system, and level of education. How policymakers have reacted to specific instances of climate change or climate surprise in the past is considered, particularly with regard to the choices they made between proactive and reactive measures. Finally, the report discusses techniques used in the current generation of assessment models and makes suggestions as to how climate surprises might be included in future models. The report concludes that some kinds of surprises are simply unpredictable, but there are several types that could in some way be anticipated and assessed, and their negative effects forestalled.

Similarity and Uniqueness Focus: A Paper Tiger and a Surprise

Abstract: Two studies examined self-defensiveness as a result of thinking about one's intimate relationship in terms of self-partner similarity or uniqueness. Fifty married couples (Study 1) and 106 single women who were involved in romantic relationships (Study 2) wrote essays on self-partner similarities or uniqueness or on movies (control). All participants were then given threatening information-spouse outperformed self on a novel task (Study 1)-or negative feedback on desirable attributes (Study 2). Defensiveness was measured. Content analysis revealed that relationship-similarity essays were associated with good feelings, a "we" focus, and limited cognitive processing. Relationship-uniqueness essays were associated with a self-focus, negative feelings, and substantial cognitive processing in terms of understanding and assimilation. In neither study did relationship-similarity essays reduce defensiveness; in both studies, relationship-uniqueness reduced defensiveness. Results are discussed in terms of the synd...

Violence, Women, and Disability in Tod Browning's Freaks and The Devil Doll

Abstract: Filmmakers who have populated their films with disabled characters have occasionally endowed them with violent behavior, and it should come as no surprise to learn that the vast majority of such characters have been coded as male. Indeed, the early history of disability depictions in the movies can be characterized in terms of a conspicuous gender-based dichotomy: male characters were often designed as castrated Captain Ahab types who destroy all in their wake in the name of revenge, while female characters were infantilized as docile, sexless, godly young things usually rewarded for their enduring purity with a miracle cure.

The Progress of Experiment: Science and Therapeutic Reform in the United States, 1900-1990

Abstract: Harry M Marks Cambridge University Press, £45, pp 258 ISBN 0 521 58142 7 The use of statistics in clinical medical research has taken on the appearance of an article of faith. Any omission of statistical rigour from clinical research is viewed as an act of heresy, and, like the ideas of the heretic, the work of the insufficiently rigorous is banished from the scientific literature. As in all matters of faith, however, the propagation of statistical methods depends on training the next generation to follow its dictates. It should therefore not surprise us to learn that statistical methodology …

On the psychological basis of economics and social psychology

Abstract: Neoclassical economic theory, with its roots (partly) in the marginal revolution of the Nineteenth Century, has been the dominant paradigm for economic thought throughout most of the Twentieth Century?up to the present day. However, for the past several decades economists have been deeply divided on the validity of neoclassical theory, thereby rendering the discipline less effective than it could be in helping to understand socio-economic change. A mathematical synthesis of prominent contributions to psychological and economic theory since the mid-Nineteenth Century has emerged in recent years, resulting in a substantive formulation of individual behavior. Rather than incorrectly assign utility directly to consumables thereby excluding time as an essential parameter, as is the case in mainstream economic theory, this new methodology assigns instantaneous utility exclusively to the expected (intertemporal) process-of-knowing attending mental/physical activity. The result is a canonical theory that represents the expectational and?barring surprise?actual time-dependent interaction of the individual with his environment, including other agents. The paper will provide an overview of basic and applied theory, and its relation to the mainstream and Austrian schools. Applications at the microeconomic level, including the psychological contribution to the real interest rate and the essential relationship between capital and labor, will be addressed. Also discussed will be the initial perceptions yielded by this new mathematical theory on the social psychology of group behavior, including the social-identity approach. New results will be provided on capital function, the etiology of interest rates, the nature of value, the determination of market prices, and other topics of interest.

Policy Signalling in the Open Economy: A Re-examination

Abstract: The effect of economic policies is rarely exactly what was planned or intended. One reason for this is uncertainty about how economic actors (including ‘nature’) will behave and, hence, about how the economy will respond to policy. Such uncertainty means that policy-makers cannot always predict the effects of their actions. Moreover, even when policymakers feel confident that they know the structure of the economy, surprises always happen — so much so that the occurrence of a surprise should be no surprise.

Low Inflation: The Surprise of the 1990s

Abstract: For most of the 1990s, forecasters have been predicting an upturn in inflation. Yet, over that same period, the United States has experienced stable or declining inflation. Why have forecasts been at odds with reality? And why does it matter? In this article, Dean Croushore considers some answers to these questions and explains why inflation is the economic surprise of the decade.

The Primitive Uncertainty Construct: Possibility, Potential Surprise, Probability and Belief; Some Experimental Evidence

Abstract: This paper investigates the nature of the primitive uncertainty measure by means of a laboratory experiment that consists of four uncertain situations. It considers the related pair of possibility and potential surprise associated with George Shackle; and the supposedly related pair, belief and probability. The assessment of the relative merits of potential measures of uncertainty is based upon modal responses and χ2 tests. It is found that the dominant uncertainty concept is potential surprise, and the subjects' explanations of their choice of an uncertainty concept gave substantial weight to possibility where it is felt that there is vagueness or doubt about the outcomes in a given situation