The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a rapidly evolving global emergency that continues to strain healthcare systems. Emerging research describes a plethora of patient factors-including demographic, clinical, immunologic, hematological, biochemical, and radiographic findings-that may be of utility to clinicians to predict COVID-19 severity and mortality. We present a synthesis of the current literature pertaining to factors predictive of COVID-19 clinical course and outcomes. Findings associated with increased disease severity and/or mortality include age > 55 years, multiple pre-existing comorbidities, hypoxia, specific computed tomography findings indicative of extensive lung involvement, diverse laboratory test abnormalities, and biomarkers of end-organ dysfunction. Hypothesis-driven research is critical to identify the key evidence-based prognostic factors that will inform the design of intervention studies to improve the outcomes of patients with COVID-19 and to appropriately allocate scarce resources.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/rmv.2146

Predictors of COVID-19 severity: A literature review.

As of 10 April 2020, New York State had 180,458 cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and 9,385 reported deaths Patients with cancer comprised 84% of deceased individuals1 Population-based studies from China and Italy suggested a higher coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) death rate in patients with cancer2,3, although there is a knowledge gap as to which aspects of cancer and its treatment confer risk of severe COVID-194 This information is critical to balance the competing safety considerations of reducing SARS-CoV-2 exposure and cancer treatment continuation From 10 March to 7 April 2020, 423 cases of symptomatic COVID-19 were diagnosed at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (from a total of 2,035 patients with cancer tested) Of these, 40% were hospitalized for COVID-19, 20% developed severe respiratory illness (including 9% who required mechanical ventilation) and 12% died within 30 d Age older than 65 years and treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) were predictors for hospitalization and severe disease, whereas receipt of chemotherapy and major surgery were not Overall, COVID-19 in patients with cancer is marked by substantial rates of hospitalization and severe outcomes The association observed between ICI and COVID-19 outcomes in our study will need further interrogation in tumor-specific cohorts

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Determinants of COVID-19 disease severity in patients with cancer.

BACKGROUND: Patients with cancer are purported to have poor COVID-19 outcomes. However, cancer is a heterogeneous group of diseases, encompassing a spectrum of tumour subtypes. The aim of this study was to investigate COVID-19 risk according to tumour subtype and patient demographics in patients with cancer in the UK. METHODS: We compared adult patients with cancer enrolled in the UK Coronavirus Cancer Monitoring Project (UKCCMP) cohort between March 18 and May 8, 2020, with a parallel non-COVID-19 UK cancer control population from the UK Office for National Statistics (2017 data). The primary outcome of the study was the effect of primary tumour subtype, age, and sex and on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) prevalence and the case-fatality rate during hospital admission. We analysed the effect of tumour subtype and patient demographics (age and sex) on prevalence and mortality from COVID-19 using univariable and multivariable models. FINDINGS: 319 (30·6%) of 1044 patients in the UKCCMP cohort died, 295 (92·5%) of whom had a cause of death recorded as due to COVID-19. The all-cause case-fatality rate in patients with cancer after SARS-CoV-2 infection was significantly associated with increasing age, rising from 0·10 in patients aged 40-49 years to 0·48 in those aged 80 years and older. Patients with haematological malignancies (leukaemia, lymphoma, and myeloma) had a more severe COVID-19 trajectory compared with patients with solid organ tumours (odds ratio [OR] 1·57, 95% CI 1·15-2·15; p<0·0043). Compared with the rest of the UKCCMP cohort, patients with leukaemia showed a significantly increased case-fatality rate (2·25, 1·13-4·57; p=0·023). After correction for age and sex, patients with haematological malignancies who had recent chemotherapy had an increased risk of death during COVID-19-associated hospital admission (OR 2·09, 95% CI 1·09-4·08; p=0·028). INTERPRETATION: Patients with cancer with different tumour types have differing susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 phenotypes. We generated individualised risk tables for patients with cancer, considering age, sex, and tumour subtype. Our results could be useful to assist physicians in informed risk-benefit discussions to explain COVID-19 risk and enable an evidenced-based approach to national social isolation policies. FUNDING: University of Birmingham and University of Oxford.

COVID-19 prevalence and mortality in patients with cancer and the effect of primary tumour subtype and patient demographics: a prospective cohort study.

Outcomes of patients with hematologic malignancies and COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis of 3377 patients.

Clinical characteristics and risk factors associated with COVID-19 severity in patients with haematological malignancies in Italy: a retrospective, multicentre, cohort study.

https://www.pure.ed.ac.uk/ws/files/160064404/Lancet_manuscript_Final_110520_clean.pdf

Ashley J. Smith

Papers

COVID-19 mortality in patients with cancer on chemotherapy or other anticancer treatments: a prospective cohort study.