The UK has passed legislation that introduces the world’s first long-term legally binding framework to tackle the dangers of climate change (The Climate Change Act 20084). The act requires Government to set carbon budgets, which are limits on greenhouse gas emissions in the UK for consecutive five year periods. 
Models analysed in IPCC AR4 have a range of 0-60% for an AMOC decrease over the next 100 years. The RAPID-WATCH 26˚N observations provide the only continuous measurements of the AMOC strength and vertical structure, and are thus a vital monitoring tool for this key climate variable'.
Analysis of the PSMSL data set, reviewed by scientific panels such as the IPCC, inform studies of impacts of climate change on both national and international levels (e.g. UK Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP), UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), UK Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Review, Charting Progress and Charting Progress 2, IPCC Working Group II).

Climate change impacts

Cause and Correlation in Biology. A User's Guide to Path Analysis, Structural Equations and Causal Inference with R, Second edition, Bill Shipley. Cambridge University Press (2016), (ISBN: 978-1-107-44259-7, 314 pp., £39.99, paperback)

Alpine Plant Life Functional Plant Ecology Of High Mountain Ecosystems

Spatial and temporal effects of drought on Chinese vegetation under different coverage levels.

Mountain areas are biodiversity hotspots and provide a multitude of ecosystem services of irreplaceable socio-economic value. In the European Alps, air temperature has increased at a rate of about 0.36°C decade-1 since 1970, leading to glacier retreat and significant snowpack reduction. Due to these rapid environmental changes, this mountainous region is undergoing marked changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution of animals, plants and fungi. Long-term monitoring in the European Alps offers an excellent natural laboratory to synthetize climate-related changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution for a large array of taxonomic groups. This review assesses the climatic changes that have occurred across the European Alps during recent decades, spring phenological changes and upslope shifts of plants, animals and fungi from evidence in published papers and previously unpublished data. Our review provides evidence that spring phenology has been shifting earlier during the past four decades and distribution ranges show an upwards trend for most of the taxonomic groups for which there are sufficient data. The first observed activity of reptiles and terrestrial insects (e.g. butterflies) in spring has shifted significantly earlier, at an average rate of -5.7 and -6.0 days decade-1 , respectively. By contrast, the first observed spring activity of semi-aquatic insects (e.g. dragonflies and damselflies) and amphibians, as well as the singing activity or laying dates of resident birds, show smaller non-significant trends ranging from -1.0 to +1.3 days decade-1 . Leaf-out and flowering of woody and herbaceous plants showed intermediate trends with mean values of -2.4 and -2.8 days decade-1 , respectively. Regarding species distribution, plants, animals and fungi (N = 2133 species) shifted the elevation of maximum abundance (optimum elevation) upslope at a similar pace (on average between +18 and +25 m decade-1 ) but with substantial differences among taxa. For example, the optimum elevation shifted upward by +36.2 m decade-1 for terrestrial insects and +32.7 m decade-1 for woody plants, whereas it was estimated to range between -1.0 and +11 m decade-1 for semi-aquatic insects, ferns, birds and wood-decaying fungi. The upper range limit (leading edge) of most species also shifted upslope with a rate clearly higher for animals (from +47 to +91 m decade-1 ) than for plants (from +17 to +40 m decade-1 ), except for semi-aquatic insects (-4.7 m decade-1 ). Although regional land-use changes could partly explain some trends, the consistent upward shift found in almost all taxa all over the Alps is likely reflecting the strong warming and the receding of snow cover that has taken place across the European Alps over recent decades. However, with the possible exception of terrestrial insects, the upward shift of organisms seems currently too slow to track the pace of isotherm shifts induced by climate warming, estimated at about +62 to +71 m decade-1 since 1970. In the light of these results, species interactions are likely to change over multiple trophic levels through phenological and spatial mismatches. This nascent research field deserves greater attention to allow us to anticipate structural and functional changes better at the ecosystem level.

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Phenological and elevational shifts of plants, animals and fungi under climate change in the European Alps.

Warmer winters reduce the advance of tree spring phenology induced by warmer springs in the Alps

Process-based models outcompete correlative models in projecting spring phenology of trees in a future warmer climate

Temperatures in mountain areas are increasing at a higher rate than the Northern Hemisphere land average, but how fauna may respond, in particular in terms of phenology, remains poorly understood. The aim of this study was to assess how elevation could modify the relationships between climate variability (air temperature and snow melt-out date), the timing of plant phenology and egg-laying date of the coal tit (Periparus ater). We collected 9 years (2011-2019) of data on egg-laying date, spring air temperature, snow melt-out date, and larch budburst date at two elevations (~1,300 m and ~1,900 m asl) on a slope located in the Mont-Blanc Massif in the French Alps. We found that at low elevation, larch budburst date had a direct influence on egg-laying date, while at high-altitude snow melt-out date was the limiting factor. At both elevations, air temperature had a similar effect on egg-laying date, but was a poorer predictor than larch budburst or snowmelt date. Our results shed light on proximate drivers of breeding phenology responses to interannual climate variability in mountain areas and suggest that factors directly influencing species phenology vary at different elevations. Predicting the future responses of species in a climate change context will require testing the transferability of models and accounting for nonstationary relationships between environmental predictors and the timing of phenological events.

Daphné Asse

Papers

Warmer winters reduce the advance of tree spring phenology induced by warmer springs in the Alps

Process-based models outcompete correlative models in projecting spring phenology of trees in a future warmer climate

Best environmental predictors of breeding phenology differ with elevation in a common woodland bird species.