Showing papers by "Jim Haywood published in 1998"

Global sensitivity studies of the direct radiative forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate and black carbon aerosols

Abstract: The direct radiative forcing (DRF) of sulfate and black carbon (BC) aerosols is investigated using a new multispectral radiation code within the R30 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model (GCM). Two independent sulfate climatologies from chemical transport models are applied to the GCM; each climatology has a different atmospheric burden, vertical profile, and seasonal cycle. The DRF is calculated to be approximately −0.6 and −0.8 W m−2 for the different sulfate climatologies. Additional sensitivity studies show that the vertical profile of the sulfate aerosol is important in determining the DRF; sulfate residing near the surface gives the strongest DRF due to the effects of relative humidity. Calculations of the DRF due to BC reveal that the DRF remains uncertain to approximately a factor of 3 due to uncertainties in the total atmospheric burden, the vertical profile of the BC, and the assumed size distribution. Because of the uncertainties in the total global mass of BC, the normalized DRF (the DRF per unit column mass of aerosol in watts per milligram (W mg−1)) due to BC is estimated; the range is +1.1 to + 1.9 W mg−1 due to uncertainties in the vertical profile. These values correspond to a DRF of approximately +0.4 W m−2 with a factor of 3 uncertainty when the uncertainty in the total global mass of BC is included. In contrast to sulfate aerosol, the contribution to the global DRF from cloudy regions is very significant, being estimated as approximately 60%. The vertical profile of the BC is, once again, important in determining the DRF, but the sensitivity is reversed from that of sulfate; BC near the surface gives the weakest DRF due to the shielding effects of overlying clouds. Although the uncertainty in the estimates of the DRF due to BC remains high, these results indicate that the DRF due to absorption by BC aerosol may contribute a significant positive radiative forcing and may consequently be important in determining climatic changes in the Earth-atmosphere system.

Intercomparison of models representing direct shortwave radiative forcing by sulfate aerosols

Abstract: The importance of aerosols as agents of climate change has recently been highlighted. However, the magnitude of aerosol forcing by scattering of shortwave radiation (direct forcing) is still very uncertain even for the relatively well characterized sulfate aerosol. A potential source of uncertainty is in the model representation of aerosol optical properties and aerosol influences on radiative transfer in the atmosphere. Although radiative transfer methods and codes have been compared in the past, these comparisons have not focused on aerosol forcing (change in net radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere). Here we report results of a project involving 12 groups using 15 models to examine radiative forcing by sulfate aerosol for a wide range of values of particle radius, aerosol optical depth, surface albedo, and solar zenith angle. Among the models that were employed were high and low spectral resolution models incorporating a variety of radiative transfer approximations as well as a line-by-line model. The normalized forcings (forcing per sulfate column burden) obtained with the several radiative transfer models were examined, and the discrepancies were characterized. All models simulate forcings of comparable amplitude and exhibit a similar dependence on input parameters. As expected for a non-light-absorbing aerosol, forcings were negative (cooling influence) except at high surface albedo combined with small solar zenith angle. The relative standard deviation of the zenith-angle-averaged normalized broadband forcing for 15 models-was 8% for particle radius near the maximum in this forcing (approx. 0.2 microns) and at low surface albedo. Somewhat greater model-to-model discrepancies were exhibited at specific solar zenith angles. Still greater discrepancies were exhibited at small particle radii and much greater discrepancies were exhibited at high surface albedos, at which the forcing changes sign; in these situations, however, the normalized forcing is quite small quite small. Discrepancies among the models arise from inaccuracies in Mie calculations, differing treatment of the angular scattering phase function, differing wavelength and angular resolution, and differing treatment of multiple scattering. These results imply the need for standardized radiative transfer methods tailored to the direct aerosol forcing problem. However, the relatively small spread in these results suggests that the uncertainty in forcing arising from the treatment of radiative forcing of a well-characterized aerosol at well-specified surface albedo is smaller than some of the other sources of uncertainty in estimates of direct forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols and anthropogenic aerosols generally.

A limited-area-model case study of the effects of sub-grid scale Variations in relative humidity and cloud upon the direct radiative forcing of sulfate aerosol

Abstract: A limited-area non-hydrostatic model with a horizontal spatial resolution of 2km by 2km is used to assess the importance of sub-grid scale variations in relative humidity and cloud upon the direct radiative forcing (DRF) by tropospheric sulfate aerosols. The DRF from the limited-area model for both clear and cloudy regions is analyzed and the results compared against those obtained using general circulation model (GCM) parameterizations that perform the computations over coarse horizontal grids. In this idealized model study, the GCM calculations underestimate the clear sky DRF by approximately 73% and the cloudy sky DRF by approximately 60%. These results indicate that, for areas where the relative humidity is high and where there is substantial spatial variability in relative humidity and cloud, GCM calculations may considerably underestimate the DRF.

Aviation fuel tracer simulation: Model intercomparison and implications

Abstract: An upper limit for aircraft-produced perturbations to aerosols and gaseous exhaust products in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) is derived using the 1992 aviation fuel tracer simulation performed by eleven global atmospheric models Key findings are that subsonic aircraft emissions: 1) have not be responsible for the observed water vapor trends at 40°N; 2) could be a significant source of soot mass near 12 km, but not at 20 km, 3) might cause a noticeable increase in the background sulfate aerosol surface area and number densities (but not mass density) near the northern mid-latitude tropopause, and 4) could provide a global, annual mean top of the atmosphere radiative forcing up to +0006 W/m² and −0013 W/m² due to emitted soot and sulfur, respectively

Estimates of radiative forcing due to modeled increases in tropospheric ozone

Abstract: The GFDL R30 general circulation model (GCM) and a fixed dynamical heating model (FDHM) are used to assess the instantaneous and adjusted radiative forcing due to changes in tropospheric ozone caused by anthropogenic activity. Ozone perturbations from the GFDL global chemical transport model are applied to the GCM, and the instantaneous solar and terrestrial radiative forcings are calculated excluding and including clouds. The FDHM is used to calculate the adjusted radiative forcing at the tropopause. The net global annual mean adjusted radiative forcing, including clouds, ranges from +0.29 to +0.35 W m−2 with ∼80% of this forcing being in the terrestrial spectrum. If stratospheric adjustment is ignored, the forcing increases by ∼10%, and if clouds are ignored, the radiative forcing increases by a further 20–30%. These results are in reasonable agreement with earlier studies and suggest that changes in tropospheric ozone due to anthropogenic emissions exert a global mean radiative forcing that is of similar magnitude but of opposite sign to the direct forcing of sulfate aerosols.