/pdf/statistical-analysis-in-climate-research-51ik9f04rx.pdf

Statistical Analysis in Climate Research

羟氨苄青霉素引起大疱性类天疱疮样疹

This study focuses on the improved estimation of mesoscale surface ocean circulation obtained by merging TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) and ERS-1 and -2 altimeter measurements between October 1992 and May 1998. Once carefully intercalibrated and homogenized, these data are merged through an advanced global objective analysis method that allows us to correct for residual long wavelength errors and uses realistic correlation scales of ocean dynamics. The high-resolution (0.25°×0.25°) merged T/P+ERS-1 and -2 sea level anomaly maps provide more homogeneous and reduced mapping errors than either individual data set and more realistic sea level and geostrophic velocity statistics than T/P data alone. Furthermore, the merged T/P+ERS-1 and -2 maps yield eddy kinetic energy (EKE) levels 30% higher than maps of T/P alone. They also permit realistic global estimates of east and north components of EKE and their seasonal variations, to study EKE sources better. A comparison of velocity statistics with World Ocean Circulation Experiment surface drifters in the North Atlantic shows very good agreement. Comparison with contemporary current meter data in various oceanic regimes also produces comparable levels of energy and similar ratios of northward and eastward energy, showing that the maps are suitable to studying anisotropy. The T/P + ERS zonal and meridional components of the mapped currents usually present comparable rms variability, even though the variability in the Atlantic is more isotropic than that in the Pacific, which exhibits strong zonal changes. The EKE map presents a very detailed description, presumably never before achieved at a global scale. Pronounced seasonal changes of the EKE are found in many regions, notably the northeastern Pacific, the northeastern and northwestern Atlantic, the tropical oceans, and the zonally extended bands centered near 20°S in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans and at 20°N in the northwestern Pacific.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2000JC900063

Global high-resolution mapping of ocean circulation from TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-1 and -2

The monsoon circulation of the Indian Ocean

We show that inferences of competence based solely on facial appearance predicted the outcomes of U.S. congressional elections better than chance (e.g., 68.8% of the Senate races in 2004) and also were linearly related to the margin of victory. These inferences were specific to competence and occurred within a 1-second exposure to the faces of the candidates. The findings suggest that rapid, unreflective trait inferences can contribute to voting choices, which are widely assumed to be based primarily on rational and deliberative considerations.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/308/5728/1623.full.pdf

Inferences of Competence from Faces Predict Election Outcomes

The interaction of nonlinear shelf waves or eddies with longshore variation of topography is addressed. The dynamics are subtle and, perhaps for this reason, have been largely overlooked. Our own results are preliminary; but they point toward an unexpectedly strong influence such that, in many coastal environments, topographic stress may overwhelm other forces. The topographic stress acts to drive undercurrents in the sense of intrinsic shelf wave propagation, hence poleward on eastern boundaries. Potentially, a very important consideration is that a secondary circulation associated with this stress has the sense of upwelling on all boundaries in either hemisphere.

Topographic Stress in Coastal Circulation Dynamics


 The transition of plants and animals from sea to land required adaptation to a very different physical and chemical environment. In this paper, we focus on the consequences of the differences between the magnitude of the variability of ocean and atmospheric dynamics, with the ocean environment (in particular temperature and currents) being two to three orders of magnitude less variable than that on land. We suggest that greater insights on possible responses of marine vs. terrestrial systems to rapid climate change can be gained by considering that terrestrial vertebrates, invertebrates and plants have evolved from marine organisms that, pre-Cambrian, had early life history developmental stages as planktonic larvae. Marine larvae were/are adapted to the predictable and minimal range of temperature changes and regularities in ocean currents, as most organisms utilize the energy in these currents as an “auxiliary” source for predictable gamete and larvae dispersal. Post-Cambrian, on land, no such simple strategy was available; instead, most terrestrial organisms have evolved reproductive strategies and behaviours to eliminate, or at least minimize, the consequences of much larger atmospheric variability. Adapting our future use of these systems sensibly will require greater understanding of how the two regimes respond to rapid climate change.

Comparison of marine and terrestrial ecosystems: suggestions of an evolutionary perspective influenced by environmental variation

[1] Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) from coastal buoys suggests that the summertime over-shelf water temperature off the U.S. West Coast has been declining during the past 30 years at an average rate of −0.19°C decade−1. This cooling trend manifests itself more strongly off south-central California than off Oregon and northern California. The variability and trend in the upwelling north of off San Francisco are positively correlated with those of the equatorward wind, indicating a role of offshore Ekman transport in the north. In contrast, Ekman pumping associated with wind stress curls better explains the stronger and statistically more significant cooling trend in the south. While the coast-wide variability and trend in SST are strongly correlated with those of large-scale modes of climate variability, they in general fail to explain the southward intensification of the trend in SST and wind stress curl. This result suggests that the local wind stress curl, often topographically forced, may have played a role in the upwelling trend pattern.

https://www.whoi.edu/science/PO/people/hseo/Work/Presentation/2013/AMS_Austin/ams_2013_web.pdf

What determines the spatial pattern in summer upwelling trends on the U.S. West Coast

Island-trapped waves, with application to observations off Bermuda

A consideration of energy conservation for coastal-trapped waves shows that, for a slowly varying medium, the normalization of the wave modes is not arbitrary. Errors related to incorrect normalization are demonstrated for a simple analytic example and for a realistic case. If alongshore changes in latitude, topography or stratification are substantial, then predicted time series are shown by example to have amplitude errors of as much as 50% if an incorrect normalization is applied.

Kenneth H. Brink

Papers

Topographic Stress in Coastal Circulation Dynamics

Comparison of marine and terrestrial ecosystems: suggestions of an evolutionary perspective influenced by environmental variation

What determines the spatial pattern in summer upwelling trends on the U.S. West Coast

Island-trapped waves, with application to observations off Bermuda

Energy Conservation in Coastal-Trapped Wave Calculations