Wind energy has experienced accelerated cost reduction over the past five years—far greater than predicted in a 2015 expert elicitation. Here we report results from a new survey on wind costs, compare those with previous results and discuss the accuracy of the earlier predictions. We show that experts in 2020 expect future onshore and offshore wind costs to decline 37–49% by 2050, resulting in costs 50% lower than predicted in 2015. This is due to cost reductions witnessed over the past five years and expected continued advancements. If realized, these costs might allow wind to play a larger role in energy supply than previously anticipated. Considering both surveys, we also conclude that there is considerable uncertainty about future costs. Our results illustrate the importance of considering cost uncertainty, highlight the value and limits of using experts to reveal those uncertainties, and yield possible lessons for energy modellers and expert elicitation. Costs of renewable energy generation have fallen rapidly in recent years, often faster than predicted. Wiser et al. undertake an expert elicitation survey to project wind power costs to 2050, finding substantial continued cost reductions, and compare back to a previous survey to understand what has changed.

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Expert elicitation survey predicts 37% to 49% declines in wind energy costs by 2050

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2019 Cost of Wind Energy Review

Online condition monitoring of floating wind turbines drivetrain by means of digital twin

. This paper describes the development of a new reference controller framework for fixed and floating offshore wind turbines that greatly facilitates controller tuning and represents standard industry practices. The reference wind turbine controllers that are most commonly cited in the literature have been developed to work with specific reference wind turbines. Although these controllers have provided standard control functionalities, they are often not easy to modify for use on other turbines, so it has been challenging for researchers to run representative, fully dynamic simulations of other wind turbine designs. The Reference Open-Source Controller (ROSCO) has been developed to provide a modular reference wind turbine controller that represents industry standards and performs comparably to or better than existing reference controllers. The formulation of the ROSCO controller logic and tuning processes is presented in this paper. Control capabilities such as tip-speed ratio tracking generator torque control, minimum pitch saturation, wind speed estimation, and a smoothing algorithm at near-rated operation are included to provide a controller that is comparable to industry standards. A floating offshore wind turbine feedback module is also included to facilitate growing research in the floating offshore arena. All the standard controller implementations and control modules are automatically tuned such that a non-controls engineer or automated optimization routine can easily improve the controller performance. This article provides the framework and theoretical basis for the ROSCO controller modules and generic tuning processes. Simulations of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5-MW reference wind turbine and International Energy Agency 15-MW reference turbine on the University of Maine semisubmersible platform are analyzed to demonstrate the controller's performance in both fixed and floating configurations, respectively. The simulation results demonstrate ROSCO's peak shaving routine to reduce maximum rotor thrusts by nearly 14 % compared to the NREL 5-MW reference wind turbine controller on the land-based turbine and to reduce maximum platform pitch angles by slightly more than 35 % when using the platform feedback routine instead of a more traditional low-bandwidth controller.

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A Reference Open-Source Controller for Fixed and Floating Offshore Wind Turbines

More energy, more rain Energy generation by wind and solar farms could reduce carbon emissions and thus mitigate anthropogenic climate change. But is this its only benefit? Li et al. conducted experiments using a climate model to show that the installation of large-scale wind and solar power generation facilities in the Sahara could cause more local rainfall, particularly in the neighboring Sahel region. This effect, caused by a combination of increased surface drag and reduced albedo, could increase coverage by vegetation, creating a positive feedback that would further increase rainfall. Science, this issue p. 1019 Large wind and solar farms could increase local rainfall and vegetation cover in the Sahara. Wind and solar farms offer a major pathway to clean, renewable energies. However, these farms would significantly change land surface properties, and, if sufficiently large, the farms may lead to unintended climate consequences. In this study, we used a climate model with dynamic vegetation to show that large-scale installations of wind and solar farms covering the Sahara lead to a local temperature increase and more than a twofold precipitation increase, especially in the Sahel, through increased surface friction and reduced albedo. The resulting increase in vegetation further enhances precipitation, creating a positive albedo–precipitation–vegetation feedback that contributes ~80% of the precipitation increase for wind farms. This local enhancement is scale dependent and is particular to the Sahara, with small impacts in other deserts.

Climate model shows large-scale wind and solar farms in the Sahara increase rain and vegetation

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IEA Wind TCP Task 37: Definition of the IEA 15-Megawatt Offshore Reference Wind Turbine

Impacts of turbine and plant upsizing on the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind

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Matt Shields

Papers

IEA Wind TCP Task 37: Definition of the IEA 15-Megawatt Offshore Reference Wind Turbine

Impacts of turbine and plant upsizing on the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind

The Cost of Floating Offshore Wind Energy in California Between 2019 and 2032

Wind power costs driven by innovation and experience with further reductions on the horizon

Spatial impacts of technological innovations on the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind power plants in the United States