Summary Background Since December, 2019, Wuhan, China, has experienced an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported but risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding, have not been well described. Methods In this retrospective, multicentre cohort study, we included all adult inpatients (≥18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan, China) who had been discharged or had died by Jan 31, 2020. Demographic, clinical, treatment, and laboratory data, including serial samples for viral RNA detection, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. Findings 191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients). Multivariable regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital death associated with older age (odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·03–1·17, per year increase; p=0·0043), higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (5·65, 2·61–12·23; p Interpretation The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage. Prolonged viral shedding provides the rationale for a strategy of isolation of infected patients and optimal antiviral interventions in the future. Funding Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences; National Science Grant for Distinguished Young Scholars; National Key Research and Development Program of China; The Beijing Science and Technology Project; and Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development.

Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study

Introduction: The appreciable growth in pharmaceutical expenditure has resulted in multiple initiatives across Europe to lower generic prices and enhance their utilisation. However, considerable variation in their use and prices. Objective: Assess the influence of multiple supply and demand-side initiatives across Europe for established medicines to enhance prescribing efficiency before a decision to prescribe a particular medicine. Subsequently utilise the findings to suggest potential future initiatives that countries could consider. Method: Analysis of different methodologies involving cross national and single country retrospective observational studies on reimbursed use and expenditure of PPIs, statins and renin-angiotensin inhibitor drugs among European countries. Results: Nature and intensity of the various initiatives appreciably influenced prescribing behaviour and expenditure, e.g. multiple measures resulted in reimbursed expenditure for PPIs in Scotland in 2010 56% below 2001 levels despite a 3 fold increase in utilisation and in the Netherlands, PPI expenditure fell by 58% in 2010 vs. 2000 despite a 3-fold increase in utilisation. A similarly picture was seen with prescribing restrictions, i.e. (i) more aggressive follow-up of prescribing restrictions for patented statins and ARBs resulted in a greater reduction in the utilisation of patented statins in Austria vs. Norway and lower utilisation of patented ARBs vs. generic ACEIs in Croatia than Austria. However, limited impact of restrictions on esomeprazole in Norway with the first prescription or recommendation in hospital where restrictions do not apply. Similar findings when generic losartan became available in Western Europe. Conclusions: Multiple demand-side measures are needed to influence prescribing patterns. When combined with supply-side measures, activities can realise appreciable savings. Health authorities cannot rely on a ‘spill over’ effect between classes to affect changes in prescribing

Multiple policies to enhance prescribing efficiency for established medicines in Europe with a particular focus on demand-side measures: findings and future implications

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a high priority across countries as it increases morbidity, mortality and costs. Concerns with AMR have resulted in multiple initiatives internationally, nationally and regionally to enhance appropriate antibiotic utilization across sectors to reduce AMR, with the overuse of antibiotics exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Effectively tackling AMR is crucial for all countries. Principally a narrative review of ongoing activities across sectors was undertaken to improve antimicrobial use and address issues with vaccines including COVID-19. Point prevalence surveys have been successful in hospitals to identify areas for quality improvement programs, principally centering on antimicrobial stewardship programs. These include reducing prolonged antibiotic use to prevent surgical site infections. Multiple activities centering on education have been successful in reducing inappropriate prescribing and dispensing of antimicrobials in ambulatory care for essentially viral infections such as acute respiratory infections. It is imperative to develop new quality indicators for ambulatory care given current concerns, and instigate programs with clear public health messaging to reduce misinformation, essential for pandemics. Regular access to effective treatments is needed to reduce resistance to treatments for HIV, malaria and tuberculosis. Key stakeholder groups can instigate multiple initiatives to reduce AMR. These need to be followed up.

Strategies to improve antimicrobial utilization with a special focus on developing countries

Background: Countries have introduced a variety of measures to prevent and treat COVID-19 with medicines and personal protective equipment (PPE), with some countries adopting preventative strategies earlier than others. However, there has been considerable controversy surrounding some treatments. This includes hydroxychloroquine where the initial hype and misinformation lead to shortages, price rises and suicides. Price rises and shortages have also been seen for PPE. Such activities can have catastrophic effects on patients where there are high co-payment levels and issues of affordability. Consequently, there is a need to investigate this further. Objective: Assess changes in the availability, utilization and prices of relevant medicines and PPE during the pandemic among a range of Asian countries. Our approach: Narrative literature review combined with interviews among community pharmacists to assess changes in consumption, prices and shortages of medicines and PPE from the beginning of March 2020 until end of May 2020. In addition, suggestions on ways to reduce misinformation. Results: 308 pharmacists took part from five Asian countries. There was an appreciable increase in the utilization of antimicrobials in Pakistan (in over 88% of pharmacies), with lower increases or no change in Bangladesh, India, Malaysia and Vietnam. Encouragingly, there was increased use of vitamins/immune boosters and PPE across the countries, as well as limited price rises for antimicrobials in India, Malaysia and Vietnam, although greater price rises seen for analgesics and vitamin C/immune boosters. Appreciable price increases were also seen for PPE across some countries. Conclusion: Encouraging to see increases in utilization of vitamins/immune boosters and PPE. However, increases in the utilization and prices of antimicrobials is a concern that needs addressing alongside misinformation and any unintended consequences from the pandemic. Community pharmacists can play a key role in providing evidence-based advice, helping to moderate prices, as well as helping address some of the unintended consequences of the pandemic.

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Rapid Assessment of Price Instability and Paucity of Medicines and Protection for COVID-19 Across Asia: Findings and Public Health Implications for the Future.

Background COVID-19 impacted global maternal, neonatal and child health outcomes. We hypothesised that the early, strict lockdown that restricted individuals’ movements in Uganda limited access to services. Methods An observational study, using routinely collected data from Electronic Medical Records, was carried out, in Kawempe district, Kampala. An interrupted time series analysis assessed the impact on maternal, neonatal, child, sexual and reproductive health services from July 2019 to December 2020. Descriptive statistics summarised the main outcomes before (July 2019–March 2020), during (April 2020–June 2020) and after the national lockdown (July 2020–December 2020). Results Between 1 July 2019 and 31 December 2020, there were 14 401 antenatal clinic, 33 499 deliveries, 111 658 childhood service and 57 174 sexual health attendances. All antenatal and vaccination services ceased in lockdown for 4 weeks. During the 3-month lockdown, the number of antenatal attendances significantly decreased and remain below pre-COVID levels (370 fewer/month). Attendances for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV dropped then stabilised. Increases during lockdown and immediately postlockdown included the number of women treated for high blood pressure, eclampsia and pre-eclampsia (218 more/month), adverse pregnancy outcomes (stillbirths, low-birth-weight and premature infant births), the rate of neonatal unit admissions, neonatal deaths and abortions. Maternal mortality remained stable. Immunisation clinic attendance declined while neonatal death rate rose (from 39 to 49/1000 livebirths). The number of children treated for pneumonia, diarrhoea and malaria decreased during lockdown. Conclusion The Ugandan response to COVID-19 negatively impacted maternal, child and neonatal health, with an increase seen in pregnancy complications and fetal and infant outcomes, likely due to delayed care-seeking behaviour. Decreased vaccination clinic attendance leaves a cohort of infants unprotected, affecting all vaccine-preventable diseases. Future pandemic responses must consider impacts of movement restrictions and access to preventative services to protect maternal and child health.

https://gh.bmj.com/content/bmjgh/6/8/e006102.full.pdf

Indirect effects of COVID-19 on maternal, neonatal, child, sexual and reproductive health services in Kampala, Uganda.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has already claimed considerable lives. There are major concerns in Africa due to existing high prevalence rates for both infectious and non-infectious diseases and limited resources in terms of personnel, beds and equipment. Alongside this, concerns that lockdown and other measures will have on prevention and management of other infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases (NCDs). NCDs are an increasing issue with rising morbidity and mortality rates. The World Health Organization (WHO) warns that a lack of nets and treatment could result in up to 18 million additional cases of malaria and up to 30,000 additional deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. Objective Document current prevalence and mortality rates from COVID-19 alongside economic and other measures to reduce its spread and impact across Africa. In addition, suggested ways forward among all key stakeholder groups. Our approach Contextualise the findings from a wide range of publications including internet-based publications coupled with input from senior-level personnel. Ongoing activities Prevalence and mortality rates are currently lower in Africa than among several Western countries and the USA. This could be due to a number of factors including early instigation of lockdown and border closures, the younger age of the population, lack of robust reporting systems and as yet unidentified genetic and other factors. Innovation is accelerating to address concerns with available equipment. There are ongoing steps to address the level of misinformation and its consequences including fines. There are also ongoing initiatives across Africa to start addressing the unintended consequences of COVID-19 activities including lockdown measures and their impact on NCDs including the likely rise in mental health disorders, exacerbated by increasing stigma associated with COVID-19. Strategies include extending prescription lengths, telemedicine and encouraging vaccination. However, these need to be accelerated to prevent increased morbidity and mortality. Conclusion There are multiple activities across Africa to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and address misinformation, which can have catastrophic consequences, assisted by the WHO and others, which appear to be working in a number of countries. Research is ongoing to clarify the unintended consequences given ongoing concerns to guide future activities. Countries are learning from each other.

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Nongabisa Mkhabela

Papers

Response to the Novel Corona Virus (COVID-19) Pandemic Across Africa: Successes, Challenges, and Implications for the Future