Showing papers by "Peili Wu published in 2021"
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that approximately two-thirds of land on Earth will face a "wetter and more variable" hydroclimate on daily to multi-year time scales.
Abstract: The hydrological cycle intensifies under global warming with precipitation increases. How the increased precipitation varies temporally at a given location has vital implications for regional climates and ecosystem services. On the basis of ensemble climate model projections under a high-emission scenario, here, we show that approximately two-thirds of land on Earth will face a "wetter and more variable" hydroclimate on daily to multiyear time scales. This means wider swings between wet and dry extremes. Such an amplification of precipitation variability is particularly prominent over climatologically wet regions, with percentage increases in variability more than twice those in mean precipitation. Thermodynamic effects, linked to increased moisture availability, increase precipitation variability uniformly everywhere. It is the dynamic effects (negative) linked to weakened circulation variability that make precipitation variability changes strongly region dependent. The increase in precipitation variability poses an additional challenge to the climate resilience of infrastructures and human society.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated potential future changes in climate zones with the perturbed parameter ensemble of climate projections by the HadGEM3-GC3.05 model under the CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario.
Abstract: Climate zones fundamentally shape the patterns of the terrestrial environment and human habitation. How global warming alters their current distribution is an important question that has yet to be properly addressed. Using root-layer soil moisture as an indicator, this study investigates potential future changes in climate zones with the perturbed parameter ensemble of climate projections by the HadGEM3-GC3.05 model under the CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario. The total area of global drylands (including arid, semiarid, and subhumid zones) can potentially expand by 10.5% (ensemble range is 0.6–19.0%) relative to the historical period of 1976–2005 by the end of the 21st century. This global rate of dryland expansion is smaller than the estimate using the ratio between annual precipitation total and potential evapotranspiration (19.2%, with an ensemble range of 6.7–33.1%). However, regional expansion rates over the mid-high latitudes can be much greater using soil moisture than using atmospheric indicators alone. This result is mainly because of frozen soil thawing and accelerated evapotranspiration with Arctic greening and polar warming, which can be detected in soil moisture but not from atmosphere-only indices. The areal expansion consists of 7.7% (–8.3 to 23.6%) semiarid zone growth and 9.5% (3.1–20.0%) subhumid growth at the expense of the 2.3% (–10.4 to 7.4%) and 12.6% (–29.5 to 2.0%) contraction of arid and humid zones. Climate risks appear in the peripheries of subtype zones across drylands. Potential alteration of the traditional humid zone, such as those in the mid-high latitudes and the Amazon region, highlights the accompanying vulnerability for local ecosystems.
17 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that an unprecedented 80% of the 2020 summer days in East Asia were dominated by clusters of surface pressure greater than normal over the South China Sea, and that the frequency of these types of clusters was likely to have been largely responsible for the unusual rainfall of 2020.
Abstract: Highly unusual amounts of rainfall were seen in the 2020 summer in many parts of China, Japan, and South Korea. At the intercontinental scale, case studies have attributed this exceptional event to a displacement of the climatological western North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, potentially associated Indian Ocean sea surface temperature patterns and a mid-latitude wave train emanating from the North Atlantic. Using clusters of spatial patterns of sea level pressure, we show that an unprecedented 80% of the 2020 summer days in East Asia were dominated by clusters of surface pressure greater than normal over the South China Sea. By examining the rainfall and water vapor fluxes in other years when these clusters were also prevalent, we find that the frequency of these types of clusters was likely to have been largely responsible for the unusual rainfall of 2020. From two ensembles of future climate projections, we show that summers like 2020 in East Asia may become more frequent and considerably wetter in a warmer world with an enhanced moisture supply.
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TL;DR: In this article, the first 6 years of this major UK government funded project to accelerate and enhance collaborative research and development in climate science, forge a strong strategic partnership between UK and Chinese climate scientists and demonstrate new climate services developed in partnership, and illustrate new observational datasets for Asia and enhanced capability through training workshops on the attribution of climate extremes to anthropogenic forcing.
Abstract: We present results from the first 6 years of this major UK government funded project to accelerate and enhance collaborative research and development in climate science, forge a strong strategic partnership between UK and Chinese climate scientists and demonstrate new climate services developed in partnership. The development of novel climate services is described in the context of new modelling and prediction capability, enhanced understanding of climate variability and change, and improved observational datasets. Selected highlights are presented from over three hundred peer reviewed studies generated jointly by UK and Chinese scientists within this project. We illustrate new observational datasets for Asia and enhanced capability through training workshops on the attribution of climate extremes to anthropogenic forcing. Joint studies on the dynamics and predictability of climate have identified new opportunities for skilful predictions of important aspects of Chinese climate such as East Asian Summer Monsoon rainfall. In addition, the development of improved modelling capability has led to profound changes in model computer codes and climate model configurations, with demonstrable increases in performance. We also describe the successes and difficulties in bridging the gap between fundamental climate research and the development of novel real time climate services. Participation of dozens of institutes through sub-projects in this programme, which is governed by the Met Office Hadley Centre, the China Meteorological Administration and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, is creating an important legacy for future collaboration in climate science and services.