Showing papers in "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in 2021"

The Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) Product Suite

Abstract: The Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) product suite currently contains 12 products, including leaf area index, fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, fraction of green vegetation coverage, gross primary production, broadband albedo, broadband longwave emissivity, downward shortwave radiation and photosynthetically active radiation, land surface temperature, downward and upwelling thermal radiation, all-wave net radiation, and evapotranspiration. These products are generated from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite data. Their unique features include long-term temporal coverage (many from 1981 to the present), high spatial resolutions of the surface radiation products (1 km and 0.05°), spatial continuities without missing pixels, and high quality and accuracy based on extensive validation using in situ measurements and intercomparisons with other existing satellite products. Moreover, the GLASS products are based on robust algorithms that have been published in peer-reviewed literature. Herein, we provide an overview of the algorithm development, product characteristics, and some preliminary applications of these products. We also describe the next steps, such as improving the existing GLASS products, generating more climate data records (CDRs), broadening product dissemination, and fostering their wider utilization. The GLASS products are freely available to the public.

Monsoons Climate Change Assessment

Abstract: Monsoon rainfall has profound economic and societal impacts for more than two-thirds of the global population. Here we provide a review on past monsoon changes and their primary drivers, the projected future changes and key physical processes, and discuss challenges of the present and future modeling and outlooks. Continued global warming and urbanization over the past century has already caused a significant rise in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events in all monsoon regions (high confidence). Observed changes in the mean monsoon rainfall vary by region with significant decadal variations. NH land monsoon rainfall as a whole declined from 1950 to 1980 and rebounded after the 1980s, due to the competing influences of internal climate variability and radiative forcing from GHGs and aerosol forcing (high confidence); however, it remains a challenge to quantify their relative contributions. The CMIP6 models simulate better global monsoon intensity and precipitation over CMIP5 models, but common biases and large intermodal spreads persist. Nevertheless, there is high confidence that the frequency and intensity of monsoon extreme rainfall events will increase, alongside an increasing risk of drought over some regions. Also, land monsoon rainfall will increase in South Asia and East Asia (high confidence) and northern Africa (medium confidence), and decrease in North America and unchanged in Southern Hemisphere. Over Asian-Australian monsoon region the rainfall variability is projected to increase on daily to decadal scales. The rainy season will likely be lengthened in the Northern Hemisphere due to late retreat (especially over East Asia), but shortened in the Southern Hemisphere due to delayed onset.

State of the climate in 2020

Abstract: In 2020, the dominant greenhouse gases stored in Earth’s atmosphere continued to increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration at Earth’s surface was 412.5 ± 0.1 ppm, an increase of 2.5 ± 0.1 ppm over 2019, and the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800,000 years. While anthropogenic CO2 emissions were estimated to decrease around 6%–7% globally during the year due to reduced human activities during the COVID-19 pandemic, the reduction did not materially affect atmospheric CO2 accumulation as it is a relatively small change, less even than interannual variability driven by the terrestrial biosphere. The net global uptake of ~3.0 petagrams of anthropogenic carbon by oceans in 2020 was the highest in the 39-year record and almost 30% higher than the 1999–2019 average. Weak El Nino-like conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean in early 2020 cooled and transitioned to a moderate La Nina later in the year. Even so, the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was among the three highest in records dating to the mid- to late 1800s. In Europe, 17 countries reported record high annual mean temperatures, contributing to the warmest year on record for the European continent. Elsewhere, Japan, Mexico, and Seychelles also experienced record high annual mean temperatures. In the Caribbean, Aruba, Martinique, and St. Lucia reported their all-time monthly maximum temperatures. In the United States, Furnace Creek in Death Valley, California, reached 54.4°C on 16 August—the hottest temperature measured on Earth since 1931, pending confirmation. North of 60°N, the annual mean temperature over Arctic land areas was 2.1°C above the 1981–2010 average, the highest in the 121-year record. On 20 June, a temperature of 38°C was observed at Verkhoyansk, Russia (67.6°N), provisionally the highest temperature ever measured within the Arctic Circle. Near the opposite pole, an atmospheric river—a long, narrow region in the atmosphere that transports heat and moisture from sub-tropical and midlatitudes—brought extreme warmth from sub-tropical and midlatitudes to parts of Antarctica during austral summer. On 6 February, Esperanza Station recorded a temperature of 18.3°C, the highest temperature recorded on the continent, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 1.1°C. The warmth also led to the largest late-summer surface melt event in the 43-year record, affecting more than 50% of the Antarctic Peninsula. In August, daily sea ice extent in the waters surrounding Antarctica shifted from below to above average, marking the end of persistent below-average sea ice extent since austral spring 2016. In the Arctic, when sea ice reached its annual maximum extent in March, thin, first-year ice comprised ~70% of the ice;the thickest ice, which is usually more than four years old, had declined by more than 86% since 1985 to make up just 2% of total ice in 2020. When the minimum sea ice extent was reached in September, it was the second smallest except for 2012 in the 42-year satellite record. The Northern Sea Route along the Siberian coast was open for about 2.5 months, from late July through mid-October, compared to less than a month typically. Glaciers across the global cryosphere lost mass for the 33rd consecutive year, and permafrost temperatures continued to reach record highs at many high latitude and mountain locations. In the Northern Hemisphere, lakes froze three days later and thawed 5.5 days earlier on average. In Finland, the average duration of lake ice was 42 days shorter. Record high spring temperatures in central Siberia drove rapid snow melt that contributed to the lowest June snow cover extent across Eurasia in the 54-year record. As is typical, some areas around the world were notably dry in 2020 and some were notably wet. The Middle East experienced an extreme drought during autumn, with most places reporting no precipitation in October. In South America, the Bolivian lowlands suffered one of its most severe dro ghts on record during autumn. Drought also spanned the Chaco and Pantanal in Bolivia, Paraguay, and southern Brazil. The Paraguay River shrank to its lowest levels in half a century. A decadal “mega drought” in south-central Chile continued through its 11th year, with extreme conditions in the most populated areas. Argentina reported its driest year since 1995. In North America, drought continued to prevail in the West. The lack of moisture in drought-stricken regions often provide ideal conditions for fire. Total fire emissions in the western United States in 2020 were almost three times higher than the 2003–10 mean. The Arctic experienced its highest fire year in terms of carbon emitted into the atmosphere, surpassing the record set in 2019 by 34%, with most of the fires occurring in Arctic Asia. In the tropics, the Amazon saw its highest fire activity since 2012, while fire activity in tropical Asia—including Indonesia—was one of the lowest on record, related to wet conditions as La Nina evolved during the fire season. The 2020 Southwest Asian Monsoon season (June–September) was the wettest since 1981, also coincident with the emergence of La Nina. The Meiyu rainy season, which usually occurs between July and August over the Yangtze and Huaihe River Valleys of China, was extended by two months in 2020. The May–October total rainfall averaged over the area was the most since the start of the record in 1961. Associated severe flooding affected about 45.5 million people. A widespread desert locust infestation during 2019–20 impacted equatorial and northern East Africa, as heavy rains and prevailing winds were favorable for breeding and movement of swarms across Kenya, Ethiopia, northeastern Somalia, Uganda, South Sudan, and northern Tanzania. The massive infestation destroyed thousands of square kilometers of cropland and pasture lands, resulting in one million people in need of food aid in Ethiopia alone. Extremely heavy rains in April also triggered widespread flooding and landslides in Ethiopia, Somalia, Rwanda, and Burundi. The Lake Victoria region was the wettest in its 40-year record. Across the global oceans, the average ocean heat content reached a record high in 2020 and the sea surface temperature was the third highest on record, surpassed only by 2016 and 2019. Approximately 84% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave (MHW) in 2020. For the second time in the past decade, a major MHW developed in the northeast Pacific, covering an area roughly six times the size of Alaska in September. Global mean sea level was record high for the ninth consecutive year, reaching 91.3 mm above the 1993 average when satellite measurements began, an increase of 3.5 mm over 2019. Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet accounted for about 0.8 mm of the sea level rise, with an overall loss of 293 ± 66 gigatons of ice. A total of 102 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, well above the 1981–2010 average of 85. In the North Atlantic, a record 30 tropical cyclones formed, surpassing the previous record of 28 in 2005. Major Hurricanes Eta and Iota made landfall along the eastern coast of Nicaragua in nearly the same location within a two-week period, impacting over seven million people across Central America. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Goni was the strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall in the historical record and led to the evacuation of almost 1 million people in the Philippines. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Gati was the strongest recorded cyclone to make landfall over Somalia. Bosaso, in northeast Somalia, received 128 mm of rainfall in a 24-hour period, exceeding the city’s average annual total of 100 mm. Above Earth’s surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature equaled 2016 as the highest on record, while stratospheric temperatures continued to decline. In 2020, the stratospheric winter polar vortices in both hemispheres were unusually strong and stable. Between December 2019 and March 2020, the Arctic pol r vortex was the strongest since the beginning of the satellite era, contributing to record low stratospheric ozone levels in the region that lasted into spring. The anomalously strong and persistent Antarctic polar vortex was linked to the longest-lived, and 12th-largest, ozone hole over the region, which lasted to the end of December. © 2021 American Meteorological Society.

Observations of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and surface radiation over the southern ocean

Abstract: Weather and climate models are challenged by uncertainties and biases in simulating Southern Ocean (SO) radiative fluxes that trace to a poor understanding of cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiative processes, and their interactions. Projects between 2016 and 2018 used in situ probes, radar, lidar, and other instruments to make comprehensive measurements of thermodynamics, surface radiation, cloud, precipitation, aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particles over the SO cold waters, and in ubiquitous liquid and mixed-phase clouds common to this pristine environment. Data including soundings were collected from the NSF-NCAR G-V aircraft flying north-south gradients south of Tasmania, at Macquarie Island, and on the R/V Investigator and RSV Aurora Australis. Synergistically these data characterize boundary layer and free troposphere environmental properties, and represent the most comprehensive data of this type available south of the oceanic polar front, in the cold sector of SO cyclones, and across seasons. Results show largely pristine environments with numerous small and few large aerosols above cloud, suggesting new particle formation and limited long-range transport from continents, high variability in CCN and cloud droplet concentrations, and ubiquitous supercooled water in thin, multilayered clouds, often with small-scale generating cells near cloud top. These observations demonstrate how cloud properties depend on aerosols while highlighting the importance of dynamics and turbulence that likely drive heterogeneity of cloud phase. Satellite retrievals confirmed low clouds were responsible for radiation biases. The combination of models and observations is examining how aerosols and meteorology couple to control SO water and energy budgets.

Evaluating Climate Models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO Metrics Package

Abstract: El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability on the planet, with far-reaching global impacts. It is therefore key to evaluate ENSO simulations in state-of-the-art numerical models used to study past, present, and future climate. Recently, the Pacific Region Panel of the International Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR) Project, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), led a community-wide effort to evaluate the simulation of ENSO variability, teleconnections, and processes in climate models. The new CLIVAR 2020 ENSO metrics package enables model diagnosis, comparison, and evaluation to 1) highlight aspects that need improvement; 2) monitor progress across model generations; 3) help in selecting models that are well suited for particular analyses; 4) reveal links between various model biases, illuminating the impacts of those biases on ENSO and its sensitivity to climate change; and to 5) advance ENSO literacy. By interfacing with existing model evaluation tools, the ENSO metrics package enables rapid analysis of multipetabyte databases of simulations, such as those generated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 models are found to significantly outperform those from CMIP5 for 8 out of 24 ENSO-relevant metrics, with most CMIP6 models showing improved tropical Pacific seasonality and ENSO teleconnections. Only one ENSO metric is significantly degraded in CMIP6, namely, the coupling between the ocean surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, while the majority of metrics remain unchanged.

Statistical Postprocessing for Weather Forecasts: Review, Challenges, and Avenues in a Big Data World

Abstract: Statistical postprocessing techniques are nowadays key components of the forecasting suites in many national meteorological services (NMS), with, for most of them, the objective of correcting the impact of different types of errors on the forecasts. The final aim is to provide optimal, automated, seamless forecasts for end users. Many techniques are now flourishing in the statistical, meteorological, climatological, hydrological, and engineering communities. The methods range in complexity from simple bias corrections to very sophisticated distribution-adjusting techniques that incorporate correlations among the prognostic variables. The paper is an attempt to summarize the main activities going on in this area from theoretical developments to operational applications, with a focus on the current challenges and potential avenues in the field. Among these challenges is the shift in NMS toward running ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems at the kilometer scale that produce very large datasets and require high-density high-quality observations, the necessity to preserve space-time correlation of high-dimensional corrected fields, the need to reduce the impact of model changes affecting the parameters of the corrections, the necessity for techniques to merge different types of forecasts and ensembles with different behaviors, and finally the ability to transfer research on statistical postprocessing to operations. Potential new avenues are also discussed.

Explaining Extreme Events of 2019 from a Climate Perspective

Abstract: Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the Explaining Extreme Events of 2019 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.

Differing Trends in United States and European Severe Thunderstorm Environments in a Warming Climate

Abstract: Long-term trends in the historical frequency of environments supportive of atmospheric convection are unclear, and only partially follow the expectations of a warming climate. This uncertainty is driven by the lack of unequivocal changes in the ingredients for severe thunderstorms (i.e., conditional instability, sufficient low-level moisture, initiation mechanism, and vertical wind shear). ERA5 hybrid-sigma data allow for superior characterization of thermodynamic parameters including convective inhibition, which is very sensitive to the number of levels in the lower troposphere. Using hourly data we demonstrate that long-term decreases in instability and stronger convective inhibition cause a decline in the frequency of thunderstorm environments over the southern United States, particularly during summer. Conversely, increasingly favorable conditions for tornadoes are observed during winter across the Southeast. Over Europe, a pronounced multidecadal increase in low-level moisture has provided positive trends in thunderstorm environments over the south, central, and north, with decreases over the east due to strengthening convective inhibition. Modest increases in vertical wind shear and storm-relative helicity have been observed over northwestern Europe and the Great Plains. Both continents exhibit negative trends in the fraction of environments with likely convective initiation. This suggests that despite increasing instability, thunderstorms in a warming climate may be less likely to develop due to stronger convective inhibition and lower relative humidity. Decreases in convective initiation and resulting precipitation may have long-term implications for agriculture, water availability, and the frequency of severe weather such as large hail and tornadoes. Our results also indicate that trends observed over the United States cannot be assumed to be representative of other continents.

Connecting Land–Atmosphere Interactions to Surface Heterogeneity in CHEESEHEAD19

Abstract: The Chequamegon Heterogeneous Ecosystem Energy-Balance Study Enabled by a High-Density Extensive Array of Detectors 2019 (CHEESEHEAD19) is an ongoing National Science Foundation project based on an intensive field campaign that occurred from June to October 2019. The purpose of the study is to examine how the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) responds to spatial heterogeneity in surface energy fluxes. One of the main objectives is to test whether lack of energy balance closure measured by eddy covariance (EC) towers is related to mesoscale atmospheric processes. Finally, the project evaluates data-driven methods for scaling surface energy fluxes, with the aim to improve model–data comparison and integration. To address these questions, an extensive suite of ground, tower, profiling, and airborne instrumentation was deployed over a 10 km × 10 km domain of a heterogeneous forest ecosystem in the Chequamegon–Nicolet National Forest in northern Wisconsin, United States, centered on an existing 447-m tower that anchors an AmeriFlux/NOAA supersite (US-PFa/WLEF). The project deployed one of the world’s highest-density networks of above-canopy EC measurements of surface energy fluxes. This tower EC network was coupled with spatial measurements of EC fluxes from aircraft; maps of leaf and canopy properties derived from airborne spectroscopy, ground-based measurements of plant productivity, phenology, and physiology; and atmospheric profiles of wind, water vapor, and temperature using radar, sodar, lidar, microwave radiometers, infrared interferometers, and radiosondes. These observations are being used with large-eddy simulation and scaling experiments to better understand submesoscale processes and improve formulations of subgrid-scale processes in numerical weather and climate models.

Meteosat Third Generation (MTG): Continuation and Innovation of Observations from Geostationary Orbit

Abstract: Within the next couple of years, the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) will start the deployment of its next-generation geostationary meteorological satellites. The Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) is composed of four imaging (MTG-I) and two sounding (MTG-S) platforms. The satellites are three-axis stabilized, unlike the two previous generations of Meteosat that were spin stabilized, and carry two sets of remote sensing instruments each. Hence, in addition to providing continuity, the new system will provide an unprecedented capability from geostationary orbit. The payload on the MTG-I satellites are the 16-channel Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) and the Lightning Imager (LI). The payloads on the MTG-S satellites are the hyperspectral Infrared Sounder (IRS) and a high-resolution Ultraviolet–Visible–Near-Infrared (UVN) sounder Sentinel-4/UVN, provided by the European Commission. Today, hyperspectral sounding from geostationary orbit is provided by the Chinese Fengyun-4A (FY-4A) satellite Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS) instrument, and lightning mappers are available on FY-4A and on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) GOES-16 and GOES-17 satellites. Consequently, the development of science and applications for these types of instruments have a solid foundation. However, the IRS, LI, and Sentinel-4/UVN are a challenging first for Europe in a geostationary orbit. The four MTG-I and two MTG-S satellites are designed to provide 20 and 15.5 years of operational service, respectively. The launch of the first MTG-I is expected at the end of 2022 and the first MTG-S roughly a year later. This article describes the four instruments, outlines products and services, and addresses the evolution of the further applications.

The 2019 Southern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex weakening and its impacts

Abstract: This study offers an overview of the low-frequency (i.e., monthly to seasonal) evolution, dynamics, predictability, and surface impacts of a rare Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming that occurred in austral spring 2019. Between late August to mid-September 2019, the stratospheric circumpolar westerly jet weakened rapidly, and Antarctic stratospheric temperatures rose dramatically. The deceleration of the vortex at 10 hPa was as drastic as that of the first ever observed major sudden stratospheric warming in the SH during 2002, while the mean Antarctic warming over the course of spring 2019 broke the previous record of 2002 by ~50% in the mid-stratosphere. This event was preceded by a poleward shift of the SH polar night jet in the uppermost stratosphere in early winter, which was then followed by record-strong planetary wave-one activity propagating upward from the troposphere in August that acted to dramatically weaken the polar vortex throughout the depth of the stratosphere. The weakened vortex winds and elevated temperatures moved downward to the surface from mid-October to December, promoting a record strong swing of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to its negative phase. This record-negative SAM appeared to be a primary driver of the extreme hot and dry conditions over subtropical eastern Australia that accompanied the severe wildfires that occurred in late spring 2019. State-of-the-art dynamical seasonal forecast systems skilfully predicted the significant vortex weakening of spring 2019 and subsequent development of negative SAM from as early as late July.

CNRD v1.0: a high-quality natural runoff dataset for hydrological and climate studies in China

Abstract: Reliable, spatiotemporally continuous runoff records are necessary for identifying climate change impacts and planning effective water management strategies. Existing Chinese runoff data to date have been produced from sparse, poor-quality gauge measurements at different time scales. We have developed a new, quality-controlled gridded runoff dataset, the China Natural Runoff Dataset version 1.0 (CNRD v1.0), which provides daily, monthly, and annual 0.25° runoff estimates for the period 1961–2018 over China. CNRD v1.0 was generated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. A comprehensive parameter uncertainty analysis framework incorporating parameter sensitivity analysis, optimization, and regionalization with 200 natural or near-natural gauge catchments was used to train the VIC model. Overall, the results show well-calibrated parameters for most gauged catchments except arid and semiarid areas, and the skill scores present high values for all catchments. For the pseudo-/test-ungauged catchments, the model parameters estimated by the multiscale parameter regionalization technique offer the best regionalization solution. CNRD v1.0 is the first free public dataset of gridded natural runoff estimated using a comprehensive model parameter uncertainty analysis framework for China. These results indicate that CNRD v1.0 has high potential for application to long-term hydrological and climate studies in China and to improve international runoff databases for global-scale studies.

Scientific and Human Errors in a Snow Model Intercomparison

Abstract: Twenty-seven models participated in the Earth System Model–Snow Model Intercomparison Project (ESM-SnowMIP), the most data-rich MIP dedicated to snow modeling. Our findings do not support the hypothesis advanced by previous snow MIPs: evaluating models against more variables and providing evaluation datasets extended temporally and spatially does not facilitate identification of key new processes requiring improvement to model snow mass and energy budgets, even at point scales. In fact, the same modeling issues identified by previous snow MIPs arose: albedo is a major source of uncertainty, surface exchange parameterizations are problematic, and individual model performance is inconsistent. This lack of progress is attributed partly to the large number of human errors that led to anomalous model behavior and to numerous resubmissions. It is unclear how widespread such errors are in our field and others; dedicated time and resources will be needed to tackle this issue to prevent highly sophisticated models and their research outputs from being vulnerable because of avoidable human mistakes. The design of and the data available to successive snow MIPs were also questioned. Evaluation of models against bulk snow properties was found to be sufficient for some but inappropriate for more complex snow models whose skills at simulating internal snow properties remained untested. Discussions between the authors of this paper on the purpose of MIPs revealed varied, and sometimes contradictory, motivations behind their participation. These findings started a collaborative effort to adapt future snow MIPs to respond to the diverse needs of the community.

A Storm Safari in Subtropical South America: Proyecto RELAMPAGO

Abstract: This article provides an overview of the experimental design, execution, education and public outreach, data collection, and initial scientific results from the Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, and Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) field campaign. RELAMPAGO was a major field campaign conducted in the Córdoba and Mendoza provinces in Argentina and western Rio Grande do Sul State in Brazil in 2018–19 that involved more than 200 scientists and students from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil. This campaign was motivated by the physical processes and societal impacts of deep convection that frequently initiates in this region, often along the complex terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba and Andes, and often grows rapidly upscale into dangerous storms that impact society. Observed storms during the experiment produced copious hail, intense flash flooding, extreme lightning flash rates, and other unusual lightning phenomena, but few tornadoes. The five distinct scientific foci of RELAMPAGO—convection initiation, severe weather, upscale growth, hydrometeorology, and lightning and electrification—are described, as are the deployment strategies to observe physical processes relevant to these foci. The campaign’s international cooperation, forecasting efforts, and mission planning strategies enabled a successful data collection effort. In addition, the legacy of RELAMPAGO in South America, including extensive multinational education, public outreach, and social media data gathering associated with the campaign, is summarized.

SOUTHTRAC-GW: An airborne field campaign to explore gravity wave dynamics at the world’s strongest hotspot

Abstract: The southern part of South America and the Antarctic peninsula are known as the world’s strongest hotspot region of stratospheric gravity wave (GW) activity. Large tropospheric winds are deflected by the Andes and the Antarctic Peninsula and excite GWs that might propagate into the upper mesosphere. Satellite observations show large stratospheric GW activity above the mountains, the Drake Passage, and in a belt centered along 60°S. This scientifically highly interesting region for studying GW dynamics was the focus of the Southern Hemisphere Transport, Dynamics, and Chemistry–Gravity Waves (SOUTHTRAC-GW) mission. The German High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO) was deployed to Rio Grande at the southern tip of Argentina in September 2019. Seven dedicated research flights with a typical length of 7,000 km were conducted to collect GW observations with the novel Airborne Lidar for Middle Atmosphere research (ALIMA) instrument and the Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) limb sounder. While ALIMA measures temperatures in the altitude range from 20 to 90 km, GLORIA observations allow characterization of temperatures and trace gas mixing ratios from 5 to 15 km. Wave perturbations are derived by subtracting suitable mean profiles. This paper summarizes the motivations and objectives of the SOUTHTRAC-GW mission. The evolution of the atmospheric conditions is documented including the effect of the extraordinary Southern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that occurred in early September 2019. Moreover, outstanding initial results of the GW observation and plans for future work are presented.

TP-River: Monitoring and Quantifying Total River Runoff from the Third Pole

Abstract: Monitoring changes in river runoff at the Third Pole (TP) is important because rivers in this region support millions of inhabitants in Asia and are very sensitive to climate change. Under the influence of climate change and intensified cryospheric melt, river runoff has changed markedly at the TP, with significant effects on the spatial and temporal water resource distribution that threaten water supply and food security for people living downstream. Despite some in situ observations and discharge estimates from state-of-the-art remote sensing technology, the total river runoff (TRR) for the TP has never been reliably quantified, and its response to climate change remains unclear. As part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ “Pan-Third Pole Environment Study for a Green Silk Road,” the TP-River project aims to construct a comprehensive runoff observation network at mountain outlets (where rivers leave the mountains and enter the plains) for 13 major rivers in the TP region, thereby enabling TRR to be accurately quantified. The project also integrates discharge estimates from remote sensing and cryosphere–hydrology modeling to investigate long-term changes in TRR and the relationship between the TRR variations and westerly/monsoon. Based on recent efforts, the project provides the first estimate (656 ± 23 billion m3) of annual TRR for the 13 TP rivers in 2018. The annual river runoff at the mountain outlets varies widely between the different TP rivers, ranging from 2 to 176 billion m3, with higher values mainly corresponding to rivers in the Indian monsoon domain, rather than in the westerly domain.

50 Grades of Shade

Abstract: Cities increasingly recognize the importance of shade to reduce heat stress and adopt urban forestry plans with ambitious canopy goals. Yet, the implementation of tree and shade plans often faces maintenance, water use, and infrastructure challenges. Understanding the performance of natural and non-natural shade is critical to support active shade management in the built environment. We conducted hourly transects in Tempe, Arizona with the mobile human-biometeorological station MaRTy on hot summer days to quantify the efficacy of various shade types. We sampled sun-exposed reference locations and shade types grouped by urban form, lightweight/engineered shade, and tree species over multiple ground surfaces. We investigated shade performance during the day, at peak incoming solar, peak air temperature, and after sunset using three thermal metrics: the difference between a shaded and sun-exposed location in air temperature (ΔTa), surface temperature (ΔTs), and mean radiant temperature (ΔTMRT). ΔTa did not vary significantly between shade groups, but ΔTMRT spanned a 50°C range across observations. At daytime, shade from urban form most effectively reduced Ts and TMRT, followed by trees and lightweight structures. Shade from urban form performed differently with changing orientation. Tree shade performance varied widely; native and palm trees were least effective, while non-native trees were most effective. All shade types exhibited heat retention (positive ΔTMRT) after sunset. Based on the observations, we developed characteristic shade performance curves that will inform the City of Tempe’s design guidelines towards using “the right shade in the right place” and form the basis for the development of microclimate zones (MCSz).

Outlook for Exploiting Artificial Intelligence in the Earth and Environmental Sciences

Abstract: Promising new opportunities to apply artificial intelligence (AI) to the Earth and environmental sciences are identified, informed by an overview of current efforts in the community. Community input was collected at the first National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) workshop on “Leveraging AI in the Exploitation of Satellite Earth Observations and Numerical Weather Prediction” held in April 2019. This workshop brought together over 400 scientists, program managers, and leaders from the public, academic, and private sectors in order to enable experts involved in the development and adaptation of AI tools and applications to meet and exchange experiences with NOAA experts. Paths are described to actualize the potential of AI to better exploit the massive volumes of environmental data from satellite and in situ sources that are critical for numerical weather prediction (NWP) and other Earth and environmental science applications. The main lessons communicated from community input via active workshop discussions and polling are reported. Finally, recommendations are presented for both scientists and decision-makers to address some of the challenges facing the adoption of AI across all Earth science.

C-FOG: Life of Coastal Fog

Abstract: C-FOG is a comprehensive bi-national project dealing with the formation, persistence, and dissipation (life cycle) of fog in coastal areas (coastal fog) controlled by land, marine, and atmospheric processes. Given its inherent complexity, coastal-fog literature has mainly focused on case studies, and there is a continuing need for research that integrates across processes (e.g., air–sea–land interactions, environmental flow, aerosol transport, and chemistry), dynamics (two-phase flow and turbulence), microphysics (nucleation, droplet characterization), and thermodynamics (heat transfer and phase changes) through field observations and modeling. Central to C-FOG was a field campaign in eastern Canada from 1 September to 8 October 2018, covering four land sites in Newfoundland and Nova Scotia and an adjacent coastal strip transected by the Research Vessel Hugh R. Sharp. An array of in situ, path-integrating, and remote sensing instruments gathered data across a swath of space–time scales relevant to fog life cycle. Satellite and reanalysis products, routine meteorological observations, numerical weather prediction model (WRF and COAMPS) outputs, large-eddy simulations, and phenomenological modeling underpin the interpretation of field observations in a multiscale and multiplatform framework that helps identify and remedy numerical model deficiencies. An overview of the C-FOG field campaign and some preliminary analysis/findings are presented in this paper.

The Integrated Carbon Observation System in Europe

Abstract: Early Online Release: This preliminary version has been accepted for publication in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, may be fully cited, and has been assigned DOI The final typeset copyedited article will replace the EOR at the above DOI when it is published.

The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I initiative: Description and highlight results from the initial analysis

Abstract: We describe the first effort within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluation, or CORDEX-CORE EXP-I. It consists of a set of 21st century projections with two regional climate models (RCMs) downscaling three global climate model (GCM) simulations from the CMIP5 program, for two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP2.6), over 9 CORDEX domains at ~25 km grid spacing. Illustrative examples from the initial analysis of this ensemble are presented, covering a wide range of topics, such as added value of RCM nesting, extreme indices, tropical and extratropical storms, monsoons, ENSO, severe storm environments, emergence of change signals, energy production. They show that the CORDEX-CORE EXP-I ensemble can provide downscaled information of unprecedented comprehensiveness to increase understanding of processes relevant for regional climate change and impacts, and to assess the added value of RCMs. The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I dataset, which will be incrementally augmented with new simulations, is intended to be a public resource available to the scientific and end-user communities for application to process studies, impacts on different socioeconomic sectors and climate service activities. The future of the CORDEX-CORE initiative is also discussed.

The Discovery of African Dust Transport to the Western Hemisphere and the Saharan Air Layer: A History

Abstract: There is great interest in wind-borne mineral dust because of the role that dust plays in climate by modulating solar radiation and cloud properties. Today, much research focuses on North Africa because it is Earth’s largest and most persistently active dust source. Moreover, this region is expected to be greatly impacted by climate change, which would affect dust emission rates. Interest in dust was stimulated over 50 years ago when it was discovered that African dust was frequently transported across the Atlantic in great quantities. Here we report on the initial discovery of African dust in the Caribbean Basin. We show that there were three independent “first” discoveries of African dust in the 1950s through the 1960s. In each case, the discoverers were not seeking dust but, rather, they had other research objectives. The meteorological context of African dust transport was first elucidated in 1969 with the characterization of the Saharan air layer (SAL) and its role in effecting the efficient transport of African dust over great distances to the Western Hemisphere. The link between dust transport and African climate was established in the 1970s and 1980s when dust transport to the Caribbean increased greatly following the onset of severe drought in the Sahel. Here we chronicle these events and show how they contributed to our current state of knowledge.

Utilizing a Storm-Generating Hotspot to Study Convective Cloud Transitions: The CACTI Experiment

Abstract: The Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign was designed to improve understanding of orographic cloud life cycles in relation to surrounding atmospheric thermodynamic, flow, and aerosol conditions. The deployment to the Sierras de Córdoba range in north-central Argentina was chosen because of very frequent cumulus congestus, deep convection initiation, and mesoscale convective organization uniquely observable from a fixed site. The C-band Scanning Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Precipitation Radar was deployed for the first time with over 50 ARM Mobile Facility atmospheric state, surface, aerosol, radiation, cloud, and precipitation instruments between October 2018 and April 2019. An intensive observing period (IOP) coincident with the RELAMPAGO field campaign was held between 1 November and 15 December during which 22 flights were performed by the ARM Gulfstream-1 aircraft. A multitude of atmospheric processes and cloud conditions were observed over the 7-month campaign, including numerous orographic cumulus and stratocumulus events; new particle formation and growth producing high aerosol concentrations; drizzle formation in fog and shallow liquid clouds; very low aerosol conditions following wet deposition in heavy rainfall; initiation of ice in congestus clouds across a range of temperatures; extreme deep convection reaching 21-km altitudes; and organization of intense, hail-containing supercells and mesoscale convective systems. These comprehensive datasets include many of the first ever collected in this region and provide new opportunities to study orographic cloud evolution and interactions with meteorological conditions, aerosols, surface conditions, and radiation in mountainous terrain.

The Global Satellite Precipitation Constellation: current status and future requirements

Abstract: To address the need to map precipitation on a global scale a collection of satellites carrying passive microwave (PMW) radiometers has grown over the last 20 years to form a constellation of about 10-12 sensors at any one time. Over the same period, a broad range of science and user communities has become increasingly dependent on the precipitation products provided by these sensors. The constellation presently consists of both conical and cross-track scanning precipitation-capable multi-channel instruments, many of which are beyond their operational and design lifetime but continue to operate through the cooperation of the responsible agencies. The Group on Earth Observations and the Coordinating Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS), among other groups, have raised the issue of how a robust, future precipitation constellation should be constructed. The key issues of current and future requirements for the mapping of global precipitation from satellite sensors can be summarised as providing: 1) sufficiently fine spatial resolutions to capture precipitation-scale systems and reduce the beam-filling effects of the observations; 2) a wide channel diversity for each sensor to cover the range of precipitation types, characteristics and intensities observed across the globe; 3) an observation interval that provides temporal sampling commensurate with the variability of precipitation; and 4) precipitation radars and radiometers in low inclination orbit to provide a consistent calibration source, as demonstrated by the first two spaceborne radar/radiometer combinations on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Core Observatory (CO). These issues are critical in determining the direction of future constellation requirements, while preserving the continuity of the existing constellation necessary for long-term climate-scale studies.

Quantifying causal pathways of teleconnections

Abstract: Teleconnections are sources of predictability for regional weather and climate but the relative contributions of different teleconnections to regional anomalies are usually not understood. While physical knowledge about the involved mechanisms is often available, how to quantify a particular causal pathway from data is usually unclear. Here we argue for adopting a causal inference-based framework in the statistical analysis of teleconnections to overcome this challenge. A causal approach requires explicitly including expert knowledge in the statistical analysis, which allows one to draw quantitative conclusions. We illustrate some of the key concepts of this theory with concrete examples of well-known atmospheric teleconnections. We further discuss the particular challenges and advantages these imply for climate science and argue that a systematic causal approach to statistical inference should become standard practice in the study of teleconnections.

Towards an End-to-End Analysis and Prediction System for Weather, Climate, and Marine Applications in the Red Sea

Abstract: Dedicated to the bright memory of Professor Trevor Platt, a pioneer in biological oceanography and a key contributor to Red Sea research. The development of the Red Sea modeling system is being supported by the Virtual Red Sea Initiative and the Competitive Research Grants (CRG) program from the Office of Sponsored Research at KAUST, Saudi Aramco Company through the Saudi ARAMCO Marine Environmental Center at KAUST, and by funds from KAEC, NEOM, and RSP through Beacon Development Company at KAUST.

The Innovative Strategies for Observations in the Arctic Atmospheric Boundary Layer Project (ISOBAR): Unique Finescale Observations under Stable and Very Stable Conditions

Abstract: The Innovative Strategies for Observations in the Arctic Atmospheric Boundary Layer Program (ISOBAR) is a research project investigating stable atmospheric boundary layer (SBL) processes, whose representation still poses significant challenges in state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In ISOBAR ground-based flux and profile observations are combined with boundary layer remote sensing methods and the extensive usage of different unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). During February 2017 and 2018 we carried out two major field campaigns over the sea ice of the northern Baltic Sea, close to the Finnish island of Hailuoto at 65°N. In total 14 intensive observational periods (IOPs) resulted in extensive SBL datasets with unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution, which will form the basis for various numerical modeling experiments. First results from the campaigns indicate numerous very stable boundary layer (VSBL) cases, characterized by strong stratification, weak winds, and clear skies, and give detailed insight in the temporal evolution and vertical structure of the entire SBL. The SBL is subject to rapid changes in its vertical structure, responding to a variety of different processes. In particular, we study cases involving a shear instability associated with a low-level jet, a rapid strong cooling event observed a few meters above ground, and a strong wave-breaking event that triggers intensive near-surface turbulence. Furthermore, we use observations from one IOP to validate three different atmospheric models. The unique finescale observations resulting from the ISOBAR observational approach will aid future research activities, focusing on a better understanding of the SBL and its implementation in numerical models.