Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques

About: Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques is a facility organization based out in . It is known for research contribution in the topics: Environmental science & Geology. The organization has 17 authors who have published 59 publications receiving 369 citations.

Global Carbon Budget 2021

Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

Quantifying CMIP6 model uncertainties in extreme precipitation projections

Abstract: Projected changes in precipitation extremes and their uncertainties are evaluated using an ensemble of global climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). They are scaled by corresponding changes either in global mean surface temperature (ΔGSAT) or in local surface temperature (ΔT) and are expressed in terms of 20-yr return values (RV20) of annual maximum one-day precipitation. Our main objective is to quantify the model response uncertainty and to highlight the regions where changes may not be consistent with the widely used assumption of a Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate of ≈7%/K. When using a single realization for each model, as in the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the assessed inter-model spread includes both model uncertainty and internal variability, which can be however assessed separately using a large ensemble. Despite the overestimated inter-model spread, our results show a robust enhancement of extreme precipitation with more than 90% of models simulating an increase of RV20. Moreover, this increase is consistent with the CC rate of ≈7%/K over about 83% of the global land domain when scaled by (ΔGSAT). Our results also advocate for producing multiple single model initial condition ensembles in the next CMIP projections, to better filter internal variability out in estimating the response of extreme events.

Aerosol and Tropospheric Ozone Direct Radiative Impacts

Abstract: This chapter describes the direct radiative forcing (DRF) over the Mediterranean region exerted by aerosols and tropospheric ozone. Recent results on the regional aerosol DRF at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) are presented, together with trends in surface solar radiation. Absorption by aerosol particles within the troposphere affects heating rates and atmospheric stability, therefore playing a key role in the regional radiative impact of aerosols. In addition, the impact of aerosols on photochemistry and solar energy production over the Mediterranean region is also discussed with a focus on recent advances on the impact of the aerosol dimming on photovoltaic (PV) panels. Finally, the last section describes the regional radiative forcing (RF) of tropospheric ozone and drivers of its uncertainty.

The Glycemic Ratio Is Strongly and Independently Associated With Mortality in the Critically Ill

Abstract: Interventional studies investigating blood glucose (BG) management in intensive care units (ICU) have been inconclusive. New insights are needed. We assessed the ability of a new metric, the Glycemic Ratio (GR), to determine the relationship of ICU glucose control relative to preadmission glycemia and mortality.Retrospective cohort investigation (n = 4790) in an adult medical-surgical ICU included patients with minimum four BGs, hemoglobin (Hgb), and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). The GR is the quotient of mean ICU BGs (mBG) and estimated preadmission BG, derived from HbA1c.Mortality displayed a J-shaped curve with GR (nadir GR 0.9), independent of background glycemia, consistent for HbA1c <6.5% vs >6.5%, and Hgb >10 g/dL vs <10 g/dL and medical versus surgical. An optimal range of GR 0.80 to 0.99 was associated with decreased mortality compared with GR above and below this range. The mBG displayed a linear relationship with mortality at lower HbA1c but diminished for HbA1c >6.5%, and dependent on preadmission glycemia. In adjusted analysis, GR remained associated with mortality (odds ratio = 2.61, 95% confidence interval = 1.48-4.62, P = .0012), but mBG did not (1.004, 1.000-1.009, .059). A single value on admission was not independently associated with mortality.The GR provided new insight into malglycemia that was not apparent using mBG, or an admission value. Mortality was associated with acute change from preadmission glycemia (GR). Further assessment of the impact of GR deviations from the nadir in mortality at GR 0.80 to 0.99, as both relative hypo- and hyperglycemia, and as duration of exposure and intensity, may further define the multifaceted nature of malglycemia.