Institution
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Other•Dallas, Texas, United States•
About: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is a other organization based out in Dallas, Texas, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Inflation. The organization has 196 authors who have published 994 publications receiving 35508 citations.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors distinguish between three different strategies for estimating forecasting equations with real-time data and argue that the most popular approach should generally be avoided and compare favorably with that of the Blue Chip consensus.
Abstract: We distinguish between three different strategies for estimating forecasting equations with real-time data and argue that the most popular approach should generally be avoided. The point is illustrated with a model that uses current-quarter monthly industrial production, employment, and retail sales data to predict real GDP growth. When the model is estimated using either of our two alternative methods, its out-of-sample forecasting performance is superior to that obtained using conventional estimation and compares favorably with that of the Blue Chip consensus.
185 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine how the shale oil revolution has shaped the evolution of U.S. crude oil and gasoline prices and highlight uncertainties about future shale oil production, and cautions against the view that the United States may become the next Saudi Arabia.
Abstract: This article examines how the shale oil revolution has shaped the evolution of U.S. crude oil and gasoline prices. It puts the evolution of shale oil production into historical perspective, highlights uncertainties about future shale oil production, and cautions against the view that the U.S. may become the next Saudi Arabia. It then reviews the role of the ban on U.S. crude oil exports, of capacity constraints in refining and transporting crude oil, of differences in the quality of conventional and unconventional crude oil, and of the recent regional fragmentation of the global market for crude oil for the determination of U.S. oil and gasoline prices. It discusses the reasons for the persistent wedge between U.S. crude oil prices and global crude oil prices in recent years and for the fact that domestic oil prices below global levels need not translate to lower U.S. gasoline prices. It explains why the shale oil revolution unlike the shale gas revolution is unlikely to stimulate a boom in oil-intensive manufacturing industries. It also explores the implications of shale oil production for the transmission of oil price shocks to the U.S. economy.
182 citations
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TL;DR: A life-cyle model of immigrant behavior is developed to determine net lifetime income, total time allocated to home-country and foreign-country residence, and the number of migratory trips, with the emphasis on labor migration to developed countries.
178 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors consider cost reducing R&D and allow manufacturing firms to decide whether to outsource the project to research subcontractors or carry out the research in-house, and find that allowing for revenue-sharing contracts increases the chance of outsourcing and improves economic efficiency.
Abstract: This paper looks at the outsourcing of research and development (R&D) activities. We consider cost reducing R&D and allow manufacturing firms to decide whether to outsource the project to research subcontractors or carry out the research in-house. We use a principal-agent framework and consider fixed and revenue-sharing contracts. We solve for the optimal contract under these constraints. We find that allowing for revenue-sharing contracts increases the chance of outsourcing and improves economic efficiency. However, the principal may still find it optimal to choose a contract that allows the leakage to occur—a second-best outcome when leakage cannot be monitored or verified. Stronger protection of trade secrets can induce more R&D outsourcing without inhibiting technology diffusion and increase economic efficiency, as long as it does not significantly lengthen the product cycle.
175 citations
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TL;DR: This article argued that major oil price increases were not nearly as essential a part of the causal mechanism that generated the stagflation of the 1970s as is often thought, and showed that monetary expansions and contractions can generate stagflation even in the absence of supply shocks.
Abstract: This paper argues that major oil price increases were not nearly as essential a part of the causal mechanism that generated the stagflation of the 1970s as is often thought. There is neither a theoretical presumption that oil supply shocks are stagflationary nor robust empirical evidence for this view. In contrast, we show that monetary expansions and contractions can generate stagflation of realistic magnitude even in the absence of supply shocks. Furthermore, monetary fluctuations help to explain the historical movements of the prices of oil and other commodities, including the surge in the prices of industrial commodities that preceded the 1973/74 oil price increase. Thus, they can account for the striking coincidence of major oil price increases and worsening stagflation.
175 citations
Authors
Showing all 202 results
Name | H-index | Papers | Citations |
---|---|---|---|
Lutz Kilian | 81 | 251 | 39552 |
Peter Egger | 72 | 457 | 17654 |
Francis E. Warnock | 41 | 125 | 8657 |
Rebel A. Cole | 41 | 149 | 9092 |
Finn E. Kydland | 38 | 123 | 21288 |
Daniel L. Millimet | 38 | 159 | 5196 |
Joseph Tracy | 35 | 90 | 4286 |
Marc P. Giannoni | 33 | 85 | 5131 |
Ping Wang | 33 | 241 | 4263 |
W. Scott Frame | 32 | 85 | 4616 |
Kei-Mu Yi | 30 | 81 | 7481 |
John V. Duca | 29 | 145 | 3535 |
Stephen P. A. Brown | 28 | 118 | 3455 |
Kathy J. Hayes | 27 | 85 | 3075 |
Alexander Chudik | 26 | 103 | 3907 |