Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

About: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is a other organization based out in Dallas, Texas, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Inflation. The organization has 196 authors who have published 994 publications receiving 35508 citations.

The other (commercial) real estate boom and bust: The effects of risk premia and regulatory capital arbitrage

Abstract: In the 2000 s, U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) prices experienced a boom and bust as dramatic as the more widely analyzed swings in house prices and contributed significantly to bank failures. We model short-run and long-run movements in capitalization rates (rent-to-price-ratio) and risk premia for office building and apartments. In the mid-2000s’ boom, CRE prices were mainly driven by declines in required risk premia that stemmed from a weakening of capital requirements. In the bust, CRE price declines were initially driven by a jump in general risk premia and later by a tightening of effective capital requirements on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) from the Dodd-Frank Act. The subsequent recovery in CRE prices was induced and sustained by unusually low real Treasury yields. We conclude that macro-prudential regulation of leverage may help limit asset price booms by preventing sharp declines in risk premia.

Is Household Wealth Sustainable? An Examination of Asset Poverty Reentry After an Exit

Abstract: This paper analyzed the influence of financial behaviors on the duration out of asset poverty while controlling for households’ life cycle and demographic characteristics. We found evidence for the existence of structural barriers to asset acquisition. Asset accumulation at or above levels equal to nine-months worth of income at the income-poverty level was important for improving a household’s odds of permanently escaping asset poverty, but a linear relationship between asset accumulation and the likelihood of returning to asset poverty did not emerge. Moreover, minimizing debt and diversifying the asset portfolio to include more productive assets were positively related to maintaining assets; but households should also consider the risks associated with portfolio allocations.

Size, openness, and macroeconomic interdependence

Abstract: The curse of dimensionality, a problem associated with analyzing the interaction of a relatively large number of endogenous macroeconomic variables, is a prevailing issue in the open economy macro literature. The most common practice to mitigate this problem is to apply the so-called Small Open Economy Framework (SOEF). In this paper, we aim to review under which conditions the SOEF is a justifiable approximation and how severe the consequences of violation of key conditions might be. Thereby, we use a multicountry general equilibrium model as a laboratory. First, we derive the conditions that ensure the existence of the equilibrium and study the properties of the equilibrium using large N asymptotics. Second, we show that the SOEF is a valid approximation only for economies (i) that have a diversified foreign trade structure and if (ii) there is no globally dominant economy in the system. Third, we illustrate that macroeconomic interdependence is primarily related to the degree of trade diversification, and not to the extent of trade openness. Furthermore, we provide some evidence on the pattern of global macroeconomic interdependence by calculating probability impulse response functions in our calibrated multicountry model using data for 153 economies.

Employer Matching and 401(K) Saving: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study

Abstract: Employer matching of employee 401(k) contributions can provide a powerful incentive to save for retirement and is a key component in pension-plan design in the United States. Using detailed administrative contribution, earnings, and pension-plan data from the Health and Retirement Study, this analysis formulates a life-cycle-consistent econometric specification of 401(k) saving and estimates the determinants of saving accounting for non-linearities in the household budget set induced by matching. The participation estimates indicate that an increase in the match rate by 25 cents per dollar of employee contribution raises 401(k) participation by 3.75 to 6 percentage points, and the estimated elasticity of participation with respect to matching ranges from 0.02-0.07. The parametric and semi-parametric estimates for saving indicate that an increase in the match rate by 25 cents per dollar of employee contribution raises 401(k) saving by $400-$700 (in 1991 dollars). The estimated elasticity of 401(k) saving to matching is also small and ranges from 0.09-0.12 overall, with just under half of this effect on the intensive margin. Overall, the analysis reveals that matching is a rather poor policy instrument with which to raise retirement saving.

Does Capital Structure Affect the Behavior of Non-Financial Stakeholders? An Empirical Investigation into Leverage and Union Strikes

Abstract: We use contract negotiation data to study how leverage affects the interaction between firms and an important non-financial stakeholder, labor unions. Consistent with the idea that leverage diminishes the bargaining position of labor, we find that unions are less likely to strike when a firm has high leverage or increases leverage prior to a contract negotiation. We also find large leverage increases after a strike, consistent with the idea that firms intentionally use leverage to improve their bargaining position. This post-strike increase in leverage particularly pronounced when the union wins the strike. Moreover, we do not find any clear indication that such increases in leverage are linked to changes in investments. In addition, firms that experience a strike subsequently invest more internationally and in right-to-work states where union are afforded fewer legal protections, and they increase their disposal of production units that are located in states where strikes have occurred.