Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

About: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is a other organization based out in Dallas, Texas, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Inflation. The organization has 196 authors who have published 994 publications receiving 35508 citations.

Infinite Dimensional VARs and Factor Models

Abstract: This paper introduces a novel approach for dealing with the 'curse of dimensionality' in the case of large linear dynamic systems. Restrictions on the coefficients of an unrestricted VAR are proposed that are binding only in a limit as the number of endogenous variables tends to infinity. It is shown that under such restrictions, an infinite-dimensional VAR (or IVAR) can be arbitrarily well characterized by a large number of finite-dimensional models in the spirit of the global VAR model proposed in Pesaran et al. (JBES, 2004). The paper also considers IVAR models with dominant individual units and shows that this will lead to a dynamic factor model with the dominant unit acting as the factor. The problems of estimation and inference in a stationary IVAR with unknown number of unobserved common factors are also investigated. A cross section augmented least squares estimator is proposed and its asymptotic distribution is derived. Satisfactory small sample properties are documented by Monte Carlo experiments.

The algebra of price stability

Abstract: In this paper, we propose two definitions of price stability that encompass the interpretations of price stability found in the economic literature. To determine the conditions under which monetary policy can achieve price stability, we examine several well-known classes of monetary rules including the targeting of monetary aggregates, nominal GNP, prices, and interest rates. In addition, we use a linear rational expectations model to explore the degree to which price stability constrains short-term stabilization policy. We find that price stability does not necessarily prevent the monetary authority from pursuing short-term stabilization goals.

Credit channels in a liquidity trap

Abstract: We study liquidity trap dynamics driven by nonfundamental shifts in expectations in a model with nominal rigidities, housing, credit frictions and a Taylor rule. Highly leveraged borrowing through nominal debt backed by real estate collateral greatly magnifies the decline in output and house prices during a liquidity trap recession. The amplification mechanism is much smaller when there is no feedback from house prices to the borrowing constraint, when debt is real rather nominal, and when leverage is small. We argue that the liquidity trap dynamics share some important features with the recent US recession and that high levels of leverage may have made the economy sensitive to expectations induced liquidity traps.

Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand

Abstract: Traditional least squares estimates of the responsiveness of gasoline consumption to changes in gasoline prices are biased toward zero, given the endogeneity of gasoline prices. A seemingly natural solution to this problem is to instrument for gasoline prices using gasoline taxes, but this approach tends to yield implausibly large price elasticities. We demonstrate that anticipatory behavior provides an important explanation for this result. We provide evidence that gasoline buyers increase gasoline purchases before tax increases and delay gasoline purchases before tax decreases. This intertemporal substitution renders the tax instrument endogenous, invalidating conventional IV analysis. We show that including suitable leads and lags in the regression restores the validity of the IV estimator, resulting in much lower and more plausible elasticity estimates. Our analysis has implications more broadly for the IV analysis of markets in which buyers may store purchases for future consumption.

Do Restrictions on Home Equity Extraction Contribute to Lower Mortgage Defaults? Evidence from a Policy Discontinuity at the Texas' Border

Abstract: Texas is the only US state that limits home equity borrowing to 80 percent of home value. This paper exploits this policy discontinuity around the Texas’ interstate borders and uses a multidimensional regression discontinuity design framework to find that limits on home equity borrowing in Texas lowered the likelihood of mortgage default by about 1 percentage point for all mortgages and 2-4 percentage points for nonprime mortgages. Estimated nonprime mortgage default hazards within 25 to 100 miles on either side of the Texas’ border are about 15 percent smaller as one crosses into Texas.