Institution
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Other•Dallas, Texas, United States•
About: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is a other organization based out in Dallas, Texas, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Inflation. The organization has 196 authors who have published 994 publications receiving 35508 citations.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used an event study methodology and data from the largest bank mergers of 1995 to find that acquiring banks in mergers with the highest percentage of office overlaps received significant positive and higher abnormal returns than banks in merging with fewer office overlap.
Abstract: In 1995, the value of U.S. bank mergers and acquisitions reached a record $73 billion, with consolidation among the largest banks surging. Using an event study methodology and data from the largest bank mergers of 1995, I find that acquiring banks in mergers with the highest percentage of office overlaps received significant positive and higher abnormal returns than banks in mergers with fewer office overlaps. However, I find no evidence that acquiring banks in mergers resulting in the largest increases in market concentration received higher abnormal returns. These results suggest that as the banking industry continues to consolidate, expected cost reductions and efficiency improvements, as opposed to potential gains in market power, are rewarded in the financial market at the merger announcement date.
56 citations
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TL;DR: This article found a strong negative correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and real GDP growth since the Great Recession and showed that the correlation was weak even when conditioning on recessions and that many central banks reduced their policy rate to its zero lower bound.
Abstract: This paper documents a strong negative correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and real GDP growth since the Great Recession. Prior to that event the correlation was weak, even when conditioning on recessions. At the same time, many central banks reduced their policy rate to its zero lower bound (ZLB), which we contend contributed to the strong correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and real GDP growth. To test that theory, we use a model where the ZLB occasionally binds. The model roughly matches the correlation in the data—away from the ZLB the correlation is weak but strongly negative when the ZLB binds.
56 citations
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TL;DR: The authors reviewed the literature on measurement error in the major US price indexes and concluded that there is very little scientific basis for the commonly accepted notion that measured inflation at 2 to 3 percent a year is consistent with price stability.
Abstract: . This paper reviews the literature on measurement error in the major US price indexes—the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (RPI), and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) deflators. We take as our point of departure Triplett's, 1975, survey and focus on the studies of measurement error that have appeared since then. We review the problems of substitution bias, quality bias, new goods bias, and outlet substitution bias that are generally considered to be the main sources of error in price indexes. The bulk of the paper is devoted to problems in the CPI and PPI, as the GDP deflators tend to be based mainly on the components of these series. We find that there has been surprisingly little work on the problem of overall measurement error in any of these price indexes, and we conclude that there is very little scientific basis for the commonly accepted notion that measured inflation at 2 to 3 percent a year is consistent with price stability.
55 citations
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TL;DR: This article examined the hypothesis that deep recessions are followed by strong recoveries using a monthly data set for industrial production covering the period 1884-1990 and found a statistically significant relationship between growth in the first twelve months of a recovery and the peak-to-trough decline in industrial activity.
55 citations
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TL;DR: This article investigated the extent to which hiring of replacement workers can account for the change in U.S. collective bargaining in the 1980s and found that the risk of replacement declines during tight labor markets, and is lower for bargaining units with more experienced workers.
Abstract: It is argued in many circles that a structural change occurred in U.S. collective bargaining in the 1980s. We investigate the extent to which the hiring of replacement workers can account for this change. For a sample of over 300 major strikes since 1980, we estimate the likelihood of replacements being hired. We find that the risk of replacement declines during tight labor markets, and is lower for bargaining units with more experienced workers. We use the predicted replacement risk as an explanatory variable in a model of the union's choice between the strike and holdout threat. We find that strike usage decreases significantly as the predicted replacement risk increases. We estimate that a ban on the use of replacement workers would have increased strike incidence from 1982-1989 by 3 percentage points, a 30 percent increase.
54 citations
Authors
Showing all 202 results
Name | H-index | Papers | Citations |
---|---|---|---|
Lutz Kilian | 81 | 251 | 39552 |
Peter Egger | 72 | 457 | 17654 |
Francis E. Warnock | 41 | 125 | 8657 |
Rebel A. Cole | 41 | 149 | 9092 |
Finn E. Kydland | 38 | 123 | 21288 |
Daniel L. Millimet | 38 | 159 | 5196 |
Joseph Tracy | 35 | 90 | 4286 |
Marc P. Giannoni | 33 | 85 | 5131 |
Ping Wang | 33 | 241 | 4263 |
W. Scott Frame | 32 | 85 | 4616 |
Kei-Mu Yi | 30 | 81 | 7481 |
John V. Duca | 29 | 145 | 3535 |
Stephen P. A. Brown | 28 | 118 | 3455 |
Kathy J. Hayes | 27 | 85 | 3075 |
Alexander Chudik | 26 | 103 | 3907 |