Institution
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Other•Dallas, Texas, United States•
About: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is a other organization based out in Dallas, Texas, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Inflation. The organization has 196 authors who have published 994 publications receiving 35508 citations.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors evaluate the extent to which a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model can account for the impact of "surprise" and "anticipated" tax shocks estimated from U.S. time-series data.
Abstract: We evaluate the extent to which a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model can account for the impact of "surprise" and "anticipated" tax shocks estimated from U.S. time-series data. In U.S. data, surprise tax cuts have expansionary and persistent effects on output, consumption, investment and hours worked. Anticipated tax liability tax cuts give rise to contractions in output, investment and hours worked before their implementation while thereafter giving rise to an economic expansion. A DSGE model with changes in tax rates that may be anticipated or not, is shown to be able to account for the empirically estimated impact of tax shocks. The important features of the model include adjustment costs, variable capacity utilization and consumption habits. We derive Hicksian decompositions of the consumption and labor supply responses and show that substitution effects are key for understanding the impact of tax shocks. When allowing for rule-of-thumb consumers, we find that the estimate of their share of the population is only around 10-11 percent.
9 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors look at how well several alternative Taylor-rule specifications describe Federal Reserve policy decisions in real time, using the newly developed Giacomini and Rossi (2007) test for non-nested model selection in the presence of (possible) parameter instability.
9 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the effects of monetary policy under imperfect knowledge and incomplete markets are explored, and the authors show that under unanchored expectations, current interest rate policy is divorced from interest rate expectations.
Abstract: Under rational expectations, monetary policy is generally highly effective in stabilizing the economy. Aggregate demand management operates through the expectations hypothesis of the term structure: Anticipated movements in future short-term interest rates control current demand. This paper explores the effects of monetary policy under imperfect knowledge and incomplete markets. In this environment, the expectations hypothesis of the yield curve need not hold, a situation called unanchored financial market expectations. Whether or not financial market expectations are anchored, the private sector’s imperfect knowledge mitigates the efficacy of optimal monetary policy. Under anchored expectations, slow adjustment of interest rate beliefs limits scope to adjust current interest rate policy in response to evolving macroeconomic conditions. Imperfect knowledge represents an additional distortion confronting policy, leading to greater inflation and output volatility relative to rational expectations. Under unanchored expectations, current interest rate policy is divorced from interest rate expectations. This permits aggressive adjustment in current interest rate policy to stabilize inflation and output. However, unanchored expectations are shown to raise significantly the probability of encountering the zero lower bound constraint on nominal interest rates. The longer the average maturity structure of the public debt, the more severe is the constraint.
9 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors distinguish between three different ways of using real-time data to estimate forecasting equations and argue that the most frequently used approach should generally be avoided and compare favorably with that of the Blue-Chip consensus.
Abstract: We distinguish between three different ways of using real-time data to estimate forecasting equations and argue that the most frequently used approach should generally be avoided. The point is illustrated with a model that uses monthly observations of industrial production, employment, and retail sales to predict real GDP growth. When the model is estimated using our preferred method, its out-of-sample forecasting performance is clearly superior to that obtained using conventional estimation, and compares favorably with that of the Blue-Chip consensus.
9 citations
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TL;DR: The authors used a broad range of inflation models and pseudo-out-of-sample forecasts to assess their predictive ability among 14 emerging market economies (EMEs) at different horizons (1-12 quarters ahead) with quarterly data over the period 1980Q1-2016Q4.
9 citations
Authors
Showing all 202 results
Name | H-index | Papers | Citations |
---|---|---|---|
Lutz Kilian | 81 | 251 | 39552 |
Peter Egger | 72 | 457 | 17654 |
Francis E. Warnock | 41 | 125 | 8657 |
Rebel A. Cole | 41 | 149 | 9092 |
Finn E. Kydland | 38 | 123 | 21288 |
Daniel L. Millimet | 38 | 159 | 5196 |
Joseph Tracy | 35 | 90 | 4286 |
Marc P. Giannoni | 33 | 85 | 5131 |
Ping Wang | 33 | 241 | 4263 |
W. Scott Frame | 32 | 85 | 4616 |
Kei-Mu Yi | 30 | 81 | 7481 |
John V. Duca | 29 | 145 | 3535 |
Stephen P. A. Brown | 28 | 118 | 3455 |
Kathy J. Hayes | 27 | 85 | 3075 |
Alexander Chudik | 26 | 103 | 3907 |