Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

About: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is a other organization based out in Dallas, Texas, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Inflation. The organization has 196 authors who have published 994 publications receiving 35508 citations.

Adding bond funds to M2 in the P-star model of inflation

Abstract: During the early 1990s, M2 growth has been unusually weak and the P-Star model has underpredicted inflation; at the same time, bond funds have grown rapidly. We find that the P-Star model performs well recently when M2 is adjusted for bond funds.

How Taxes and Required Returns Drove Commercial Real Estate Valuations Over the Past Four Decades

Abstract: We document the evolution of U.S. tax law regarding commercial real estate (CRE) since 1975, noting changes in income and capital gains tax rates and tax depreciation methods. The most prominent changes were the 1981 and 1986 Tax Acts, but numerous significant changes occurred in the last dozen years. We then compute the present value of tax depreciation per dollar of acquisition price and an effective tax rate for CRE. We explain the quarterly variation in CRE capitalization rates using an error correction framework and find that the long run estimates are statistically significant in the way theory would suggest. Moreover, the required financial asset return and the tax depreciation variable temporally predict (“cause”) capitalization rates in the long run, but not vice versa.

An equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation

Abstract: Inflation is positively correlated with the variability of relative prices as measured by the standard deviation of the cross-section distribution of prices, and also with the third moment (skewness) of the cross-section distribution of prices. The conventional interpretation of these relationships is that they reflect sluggishness in the adjustment of individual prices in response to shocks. In this paper we question this interpretation. First, we show that similar correlations among the moments exist in alternative measures of underlying technology shocks. Second, when these shocks are fed into a general equilibrium model with multiple sectors and flexible prices, the resulting prices also display a positive correlation between aggregate inflation and skewness of the cross-section distribution.

Macro Factors and the Affine Term Structure of Interest Rates

Abstract: I formulate an affine term structure model of bond yields from a general equilibrium business-cycle model, with observable macro state variables of the structural economy as the factors. The factor representing monetary policy is strongly mean-reverting, and its influence on the term structure is primarily through changing the slope of the yield curve. The factor representing technology is more persistent, and it affects the term structure by shifting the level of the yield curve. The dynamic implications of the model for the macro economy and the term structure are consistent with the broad empirical patterns. From simulation studies of the macro-factor model I can extract the level and slope factors, similar to the ones extracted from the empirical term structure estimations. Simulation studies also show that the movement of the slope factor is primarily driven by the monetary-policy innovations, and the changes of the level factor is more closely associated with the aggregate-supply shocks from the private sector.

Drug-related violence in Mexico and its effects on employment

Abstract: This paper examines the effects of drug-related crimes on employment in Mexico at the state level during the period 2005–2014. Results indicate that such crimes have a negative impact on employment. We are able to decompose employment into low-skilled and high-skilled employment, and results are heterogeneous among both types of employment. Results indicate that a 10% increase in drug-related crimes reduces total employment up to 0.9%. Additionally, our empirical findings indicate that high-skilled employment is more sensitive to an increase in drug-related violence than low-skilled employment. Low-skilled employment decreases up to 0.3%, while skilled employment declines up to 1.5% when drug-related violence increases by 10%. It is also found that skilled employment responds at an increasing rate when drug violence skyrockets. We also find that a rise in drug-related crimes increases wages as a mechanism to retain jobs in violent places.