Showing papers by "National Bureau of Economic Research published in 1991"

Growth in Cities

Abstract: Recent theories of economic growth, including Romer (1986), Porter (1989) and Jacobs (1969), have stressed the role of technological spillovers in generating growth. Because such knowledge spillovers are particularly effective in cities, where communication between people is more extensive, data on the growth of industries in different cities allows us to test some of these theories. Using a new data set on the growth of large industries in 170 U.S. cities between 1956 and 1987, we find that local competition and urban variety, but not regional specialization, encourage employment growth in industries. The evidence suggests that important knowledge spillovers might be between, rather than within industries, consistent with the theories of Jacobs (1969).

Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement

Abstract: In general, a reduction in trade barriers will affect the environment by expanding the scale of economic activity, by altering the composition of economic activity and by initiating a change in the techniques of production. We present empirical evidence to assess the relative magnitudes of these three effects as they apply to further trade liberalization in Mexico. We first use comparable measures of three air pollutants in a cross-section of urban areas located in 42 countries to study the relationship between air quality and economic growth. We find for two pollutants (sulphur dioxide and `smoke') that concentrations increase with per capita GDP at low levels of national income, but decrease with GDP growth at higher levels of income. We then study the determinants of the industry pattern of US imports from Mexico and of value added by Mexico's maquiladora sector. We investigate whether the size of pollution abatement costs in US industry influences the pattern of international trade and investment. Finally, we use the results from a computable general equilibrium model to study the likely compositional effect of a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on pollution in Mexico.

Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets

Abstract: The benefits of international diversification have been recognized for decades. In spite of this, most investors hold nearly all of their wealth in domestic assets. In this paper, we construct new estimates of the international equity portfolio holdings of investors in the U.S., Japan, and Britain. More than 98% of the equity portfolio of Japanese investors is held domestically; the analogous percentages are 94% for the U.S., and 82% for Britain. We use a simple model of investor preferences and behavior to show that current portfolio patterns imply that investors in each nation expect returns in their domestic equity market to be several hundred basis points higher than returns in other markets. This lack of diversification appears to be the result of investor choices, rather than institutional constraints.

Corporate Structure, Liquidity, and Investment: Evidence from Japanese Industrial Groups

Abstract: This paper presents evidence suggesting that information and incentive problems in the capital market affect investment. We come to this conclusion by examining two sets of Japanese firms. The first set has close financial ties to large Japanese banks that serve as their primary source of external finance and are likely to be well informed about the firm. The second set of firms has weaker links to a main bank and presumably faces greater problems raising capital. Investment is more sensitive to liquidity for the second set of firms than for the first set. The analysis also highlights the role of financial intermediaries in the investment process.

No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns

Abstract: It is sometimes argued that an increase in stock market volatility raises required stock returns, and thus lowers stock prices. This paper modifies the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) model of returns to allow for this volatility feedback effect. The resulting model is asymmetric, because volatility feedback amplifies large negative stock returns and dampens large positive returns, making stock returns negatively skewed and increasing the potential for large crashes. The model also implies that volatility feedback is more important when volatility is high. In U.S. monthly and daily data in the period 1926-88, the asymmetric model fits the data better than the standard GARCH model, accounting for almost half the skewness and excess kurtosis of standard monthly GARCH residuals. Estimated volatility discounts on the stock market range from 1% in normal times to 13% after the stock market crash of October 1987 and 25% in the early 1930's. However volatility feedback has little effect on the unconditional variance of stock returns.

Equipment Investment and Economic Growth

Abstract: Using data from the United Nations Comparison Project and the Penn World Table, we find that machinery and equipment investment has a strong association with growth: over 1960-1985 each extra percent of GDP invested in equipment is associated with an increase in GDP growth of one third of a percentage point per year. This is a much stronger association than found between growth and any of the other components of investment. A variety of considerations suggest that this association is causal, that higher equipment investment drives faster growth, and that the social return to equipment investment in well-functioning market economies is on the order of 30 percent per year.

How Computers Have Changed the Wage Structure: Evidence from Microdata, 1984-1989

Abstract: This paper examines whether employees who use a computer at work earn a higher wage rate than otherwise similar workers who do not use a computer at work. The analysis primarily relies on data from the Current Population Survey and the High School and Beyond Survey. A variety of statistical models are estimated to try to correct for unobserved variables that might be correlated with both job-related computer use and earnings. The estimates suggest that workers who use computers on their job earn roughly a 10 to 15 percent higher wage rate. In addition, the estimates suggest that the expansion in computer use in the l980s can account for between one-third and one-half of the observed increase in the rate of return to education, Finally, occupations that experienced greater growth in computer use between 1984 and 1989 also experienced above average wage growth.

Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Interference and Measurement

Abstract: Alternative ways of conducting inference and measurement for long-horizon forecasting are explored with an application to dividend yields as predictors of stock returns. Monte Carlo analysis indicates that the Hansen and Hodrick (1980) procedure is biased at long horizons, but the alternatives perform better. These include an estimator derived under the null hypothesis as in Richardson and Smith (1989), a reformulation of the regression as in Jegadeesh (1990), and a vector autoregression (VAR) as in Campbell and Shiller (1988), Kandel and Stambaugh (1988), and Campbell (1991). The statistical properties of long-horizon statistics generated from the VAR indicate interesting patterns in expected stock returns.

What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns

Abstract: This paper uses a log-linear asset pricing framework and a vector autoregressive model to break down movements in stock and bond returns into changes in expectations of future stock dividends, inflation, short-term real interest rates, and excess returns on stocks and bonds. In monthly postwar U.S. data, excess stock returns are found to be driven largely by news about future excess stock returns, while excess 10-year bond returns are driven largely by news about future inflation. Real interest rate changes have little impact on either stock or 10-year bond returns, although they do affect the short-term nominal interest rate and the slope of the term structure. These findings help to explain why postwar excess stock and bond returns have been almost uncorrelated.

The Company You Keep: The Effects of Family and Neighborhood on Disadvantaged Youths

Abstract: We examine the effects of family background variables and neighborhood peers on the behaviors of inner-city youths in a tight labor market using data from the 1989 NBER survey of youths living in low-income Boston neighborhoods. We find that family adult behaviors are strongly related to analogous youth behaviors. The links between the behavior of older family members and youths are important for criminal activity, drug and alcohol use, childbearing out of wedlock, schooling, and church attendance. We also find that the behaviors of neighborhood peers appear to substantially affect youth behaviors in a manner suggestive of contagion models of neighborhood effects. Residence in a neighborhood in which a large proportion of other youths are involved in crime is associated with a substantial increase in an individual's probability of the being involved in crime. Significant neighborhood peer effects are also apparent for drug and alcohol use, church attendance, and the propensity of youths to be out of school and out of work. Our results indicate that family and peer influences both operate in manner such that "like begets like."

A Test of the Free Cash Flow Hypothesis: The Case of Bidder Returns

Abstract: The free cash flow hypothesis advanced by Jensen (1988) states that managers endowed with free cash flow will invest it in negative net present value (NPV) projects rather than pay it out to shareholders. Jensen defines free cash flow as cash flow left after the firm has invested in all available positive NPV projects. In this paper, we test this hypothesis on a sample of large investments made by firms, namely decisions to acquire control of other firms through tender offers.

Ethnic Capital and Intergenerational Mobility

Abstract: This paper analyzes the extent to which ethnic skill differentials are transmitted across generations. I assume that ethnicity acts as an externality in the human capital accumulation process. The skills of the next generation depend on parental inputs and on the quality of the ethnic environment in which parents make their investments, or "ethnic capital." The empirical evidence reveals that the skills of today's generation depend not only on the skills of their parents, but also on the average skills of the ethnic group in the parent's generation.

Anatomy of Financial Distress: An Examination of Junk-Bond Issuers

Abstract: This paper examines the events following the onset of financial distress for 102 public junk bond issuers. We find that out-of-court debt relief mainly comes from junk bond - holders; banks almost never forgive principal, though they do defer payments and waive debt covenants. Asset sales are an important means of avoiding Chapter 11 reorganization; however, they may be limited by industry factors. If a company simply restructures its bank debt, but either does not restructure its public debt or does not sell major assets or merge, the company goes bankrupt. The structure of a company's liabilities affects the likelihood that it goes bankrupt; companies whose bank and private debt are secured as well as companies with complex public debt structures are more prone to go bankrupt. Finally, there is no evidence that more profitable distressed companies are more successful in dealing with financial distress; they are not less likely to go bankrupt, sell assets, or reduce capital expenditures.

A Theory of Workouts and the Effects of Reorganization Law

Abstract: We present a model of a financially distressed firm with outstanding bank debt and public debt. Coordination problems among public debtholders introduce investment inefficiencies in the workout process. In most cases, these inefficiencies are not mitigated by the ability of firms to buy back their public debt with cash and other securities--the only feasible way that firms can restructure their public debt. We show that Chapter 11 reorganization law increases investment and we characterize the types of corporate financial structures for which this increased investment enhances efficiency.

The economics of smoking

Abstract: 1. Tobacco Warfare In America: An Overview.- A Battlefield Tour.- American Principles, Public Policy, and Tobacco Warfare.- Organization of this Book.- 2. Welfare Economics, Public Policy, And Smoking.- Smoking, the Market Process, and a Free Society.- Taxation and Regulation in a Market Economy.- Welfare Economics and Tobacco Policy.- Tobacco Taxation as Corrective Taxation.- Tobacco Taxation: An Overview.- 3. The Taxation And Regulation of Smoking: Principle vs. Expediency.- Realistic Politics and Tobacco Policy.- Knowledge and the Improbability of Corrective Taxation.- Political Incentive and Actual Tobacco Taxation.- Rationale, Reality, and Tobacco Regulation.- Tobacco Policy in Constitutional Perspective.- 4. Smoking And The Economic Cost Of Lost Production.- Smoking and Health: The Method of "Attributable Risk".- How Accurate are Measures of Attributable Risk?.- Economic Measurement of Indirect Costs.- Joint Costs and Improper Cost Attribution.- Who Loses Lost Production: Smokers or Nonsmokers?.- What about the Benefits of Smoking?.- 5. Markets, Insurance, And The Medical Costs Of Smokers.- Attribution of "Medical Costs" to Smoking.- Medical Costs, Personal Responsibility, and Insurance.- Life Insurance and Nonsmoker Discounts.- Health Insurance and Smoker-Nonsmoker Parity.- Smoking and Fire Costs.- Moral Hazard and Insurance Costs.- 6. Medicare, Medicaid, And The Social Cost Of Smoking.- Smokers and the Cost of Medicare.- Transfers and Social Costs: A Clarification.- Proposals for Earmarked Cigarette Taxes.- Principle, Expediency, and Wealth Transfers.- 7. Smoking, Business Costs, And Social Cost.- Smoking and the Efficiency of Team Production.- Smoking and Workplace Efficiency.- Workplace Costs: A Further Consideration.- Smoking and Economic Productivity: A Conceptual Framework.- Smoking and Productivity: Discussion of the Data.- 8. ETS And Governmental Protection Of Consumers And Workers.- The Economics of Clean Indoor Air Acts.- The Coase Theorem, Ownership Rights, and Markets.- An Alternative Explanation.- Tobacco and "Public Health".- 9. Advertising, "Addiction," And The Denial Of True Choice.- Separating Advertising Myth from Advertising Reality.- Impact of Cigarette Advertising on Smoking by Youth.- Cigarette Advertising is a Firm-Specific Investment.- International Evidence: Cigarette Advertising Bans do not Work.- The Constitution and the Protection of Commercial Speech.- Advertising and Addiction.- The New Economics of Addiction.- Consumer Sovereignty or Health Fascism?.- 10. Self Interest, Public Interest, And Legislation.- Corrective Cigarette Taxation: An Analytical Unicorn.- An Economic Approach to Legislation and Regulation.- Democratic Politics and Tax Policy.- Rent Seeking, Tax Resistance, and Social Waste.- The Social Cost of Tobacco Taxation: A Recalculation.- Economic Principles and the Anti-Cancer Bureaucracy.- Tobacco Taxation and Regulation: A Realistic Approach.- 11. Interest Groups And The Public's Health.- Overview.- Market Processes and Personal Health.- Is Health Research a Public Good?.- Public Health and the Collective Interests of Physicians.- Self Interest in Public Interest Organizations.- 12. Principle And Expediency In Public Policy.- Principles of Constitutional Political Economy.- The Self-Ownership Foundations of a Democratic Polity.- Considerations from the Economic Theory of Legislation.- Implications for Public Policy Toward Tobacco.- Implications for Public Policy More Broadly Considered.- References.

Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers

Abstract: This paper takes a first look at investment strategies of managers of 769 pension funds, with total assets of $129 billion at the end of 1989. The data show that managers of these funds tend to oversell stocks that have performed poorly. Relative sales of losers accelerate in the fourth quarter, when funds' portfolios are closely examined by the sponsors. This result supports the view that fund managers "window dress" their portfolios to impress sponsors and suggests that managers are evaluated on their individual stock selections and not just aggregate portfolio performance.

The Great Compression: The Wage Structure in the United States at Mid- Century

Abstract: The structure of wages narrowed considerably during the 1940's, increased slightly during the 1950's and 1960's, and then expanded greatly after 1970. The era of wage stretching of the past two decades has been a current focus, but we return attention here to the decade that was witness to an extraordinary compression in the wage structure. Wages narrowed by education, job experience, region, and occupation, and compression occurred within these cells as well. For white men, the 90-10 differential in the log of wages was 1.414 in 1940 but 1.060 in 1950. By 1985 it has risen back to its 1940 level. Thus the recent widening of the wage structure has returned to it a dispersion characteristic of fifty years ago. We explore various explanations for the rapid compression in the wage structure during the 1940's and for its maintenance during the subsequent decade or more. We first assess the hypothesis that the Great Depression left the wage structure in 1939 more unequal than in the late 1920's, but we find evidence to the contrary. World War II and the National War Labor Board share some of the credit for the Great Compression. But much belongs to a rapid increase in the demand for unskilled labor at a time when educated labor was greatly increasing in number. These same factors caused the wage structure to remain compressed until its expansion during the past two decades.

School Quality and Black-White Relative Earnings: A Direct Assessment

Abstract: The average wage differential between black and white men fell from 40 percent in 1960 to 25 percent in 1980. Much of this convergence is attributable to a relative increase in the rate of return to schooling among black workers. It is widely argued that the growth in the relative return to black education reflects the dramatic improvements in the quality of black schooling over the past century. To test this hypothesis we have assembled data on three aspects of school quality -- pupil teacher ratios. annual teacher pay. and term length for black and white schools in 18 segregated states from 1915 to 1966. The school quality data are linked to estimated rates of return to education for Southern-born men from different cohorts and states. measured in 1960. 1970. and 1980. Improvements in the relative quality of black schools explain 20 percent of the narrowing of the black-white earnings gap between 1960 and 1980.

On the Labor Market Effects of Immigration and Trade

Abstract: In the 1980s, the wages and employment rates of less-skilled Americans fell relative to those of more-skilled workers. This paper examines the contribution of the continuing inflow of less-skilled immigrants and the increasing importance of imports in the U.S. economy to these trends. Our empirical evidence indicates that both trade and immigration augmented the nation's supply of less-skilled workers, particularly workers with less than a high school education. By 1988, trade and immigration increased the effective supply of high school dropouts by 28 percent for men and 31 percent for women. We estimate that from thirty to fifty percent of the approximately 10 percentage point decline in the relative weekly wage of high school dropouts between 1980 and 1988 can be attributed to the trade and immigration flows. In addition, our analysis suggests that from 15 to 25 percent of the 11 percentage point rise in the earnings of college graduates relative to high school graduates from 1980 to 1985 can be attributed to the massive increase in the trade deficit over the same period, but that the effects of trade on the college/high school wage differential diminished with improvements in the trade balance during the late 1980s.

New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism

Abstract: The question of how monetary policy affects the real economy is a perennial one in macroeconomics. Over the past several decades, however, the focus of the debate has changes. Today it is taken for granted that monetary policy affects aggregate demand; what is debated is why prices do not adjust fully to compensate for shifts in demand. Thirty years ago, in contrast, sluggish price adjustment was taken for granted; what was debated was the magnitude of the effect of monetary policy on aggregate demand and the channels through which that effect occurred. This paper returns to the subject of that older literature. A fresh look at the way monetary policy affects aggregate demand is particularly timely in light of recent developments in theoretical analyses of credit markets. Work over the past 15 years has suggested that imperfections are a central feature of capital markets, and that these imperfections can cause credit allocation to be made largely on the basis of quantity rationing rather than price adjustment and can create a special role for lending by financial intermediaries. This work has also shown that credit market imperfections can have important consequences for macroeconomic fluctuations in general and for the way monetary policy is transmitted to aggregate demand in particular.

The Significance of Technical Trading-Rule Profits in the Foreign Exchange Market: a Bootstrap Approach

Abstract: In this paper, we present new evidence on the profitability and statistical significance of technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market. We utilize a new data base, currency futures contracts for the period 1976-1990, and we implement a new testing procedure based on bootstrap methodology. Using this approach, we generate thousands of new exchange rate series constructed by random reordering of each original series. We then measure the profitability of the technical rules for each new series. The significance of the profits in the original series is assessed by comparison to the empirical distribution of results derived from the thousands of randomly generated series. Overall, our results suggest that simple technical trading rules have very often led to profits that are highly unusual. Splitting the entire 15-year sample period into three 5-year periods reveals that on average the profitability of some trading rules declined in the 1986-1990 period although profits remained positive (on average) and significant in many cases.

Continuous Versus Episodic Change: The Impact of Civil Rights Policy on the Economic Status of Blacks

Abstract: This paper examines the available evidence on the causes of black economic advance in order to assess the contribution of federal policy. Over the period 1920-1990, there were only two periods of relative black economic improvement -- during the 1940s and in the decade following the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the voting Rights Act of 1965, and the institution of the government contracts compliance program. Black migration from the South, a traditional source of economic gains for blacks, almost stopped at about this same time, and recent evidence on the impact of black schooling gains indicates that educational gains cannot explain the magnitude of black economic progress beginning in the mid-1960s.

R&D Productivity: A Survey of Econometric Studies at the Firm Level

Abstract: This paper surveys econometric studies investigating the relationship between R&D and productivity at the firm level and assesses the results obtained so far and some of the problems encountered. The findings reviewed fall naturally into three major categories: based on the cross-sectional or time-series dimensions of the data and specified in terms of the elasticity of R&D or the rate of return to R&D. In view of the problems involved in modeling the effects of R&D on productivity and in measuring the appropriate variables, it is an agreeable surprise that most studies have managed to produce statistically significant and frequently plausible estimates. However, many of the current studies are not fully comparable and their results still leave much to be desired. The task of achieving progress is an arduous one.

The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: New Answers to an Old Question

Abstract: The early 1980s were a time of large budget deficits and increasing ratios of government debt to GNP for many of the OECD countries (Table 1), prompting concerns that the fiscal policies which led to such outcomes were not only unwise, but also unsustainable. Assessing wisdom is not easy, however, and surely not an exercise which can or should be reduced to the construction and examination of a few indicators. Assessing sustainability, on the other hand, is a much less ambitious task and one for which indicators are well suited. The purpose of this paper is to derive, construct and examine the behaviour of such indicators for the recent past and for the present.

Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity

Abstract: We propose and solve an optimizing model which explains counterintuitive effects of fiscal policy in terms of expectations. If government spending follows an upward-trending stochastic process which the public believes may fall sharply when it reaches specific "target points," then optimizing consumption behavior and simple budget constraint arithmetic imply a nonlinear relationship between private consumption and government spending. This theoretical relation is consistent with the experience of several countries.

A Theory of Debt Based on the Inalienability of Human Capital

Abstract: Consider an entrepreneur who needs to raise funds from an investor, but cannot commit not to withdraw his human capital from the project. The possibility of a default or quit puts an upper bound on the total future indebtedness from the entrepreneur to the investor at any date. We characterize the optimal repayment path and show how it is affected both by the maturity structure of the project return stream and by the durability and specificity of project assets. Our results are consistent with the conventional wisdom about what determines the maturity structure of (long-term) debt contracts.

Optimal Incentive Contracts in the Presence of Career Concerns: Theory and Evidence

Abstract: This paper studies career concerns -- concerns about the effects of current performance on future compensation -- and describes how optimal incentive contracts are affected when career concerns are taken into account. Career concerns arise frequently: they occur whenever the market uses a worker's current output to update its belief about the worker's ability and competition then forces future wages (or wage contracts) to reflect these updated beliefs. Career concerns are stronger when a worker is further from retirement, because a longer prospective career increases the return to changing the market's belief. In the presence of career concerns, the optimal compensation contract optimizes total incentives -- the combination of the implicit incentives from career concerns and the explicit incentives from the compensation contract. Thus, the explicit incentives from the optimal compensation contract should be strongest when a worker is close to retirement. We find empirical support for this prediction in the relation between chief-executive compensation and stock-market performance.

Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment

Abstract: Investment is often irreversible, in that installed capital has little or no value unless used in production. In the presence of ongoing uncertainty, an individual firm's irreversible investment policy optimally alternates short bursts of positive gross investment to periods of inaction, when the installed capital stock is allowed to depreciate. The behavior of aggregate investment series is characterized by sluggish, continuous adjustment instead. We argue in this paper that aggregate dynamics should be interpreted in terms of unsynchronized irreversible investment decisions by heterogenous firms, rather than in terms of ad-hoc adjustment cost functions in a representative-agent framework. We propose a closed-form solution for a realistic model of sequential irreversible investment, characterize the aggregate implications of microeconomic irreversibility and idiosyncratic uncertainty, and interpret U.S. data in light of the theoretical results.