Showing papers by "Urban Institute published in 2018"

Homeownership and the American Dream

Abstract: For decades, it was taken as a given that an increased homeownership rate was a desirable goal But after the financial crises and Great Recession, in which roughly eight million homes were foreclosed on and about $7 trillion in home equity was erased, economists and policymakers are re-evaluating the role of homeownership in the American Dream Many question whether the American Dream should really include homeownership or instead focus more on other aspects of upward mobility, and most acknowledge that homeownership is not for everyone We take a detailed look at US homeownership from three different perspectives: 1) an international perspective, comparing US homeownership rates with those of other nations; 2) a demographic perspective, examining the correlation between changes in the US homeownership rate between 1985 and 2015 and factors like age, race/ethnicity, education, family status, and income; 3) and, a financial benefits perspective, using national data since 2002 to calculate the internal rate of return to homeownership compared to alternative investments Our overall conclusion: homeownership is a valuable institution While two decades of policies in the 1990s and early 2000s may have put too much faith in the benefits of homeownership, the pendulum seems to have swung too far the other way, and many now may have too little faith in homeownership as part of the American Dream

Endogenous Stratification in Randomized Experiments

Abstract: Policymakers are often interested in estimating how policy interventions affect the outcomes of those most in need of help. This concern has motivated the practice of disaggregating experimental results by groups constructed on the basis of an index of baseline characteristics that predicts the values of individual outcomes without the treatment. This paper shows that substantial biases may arise in practice if the index is estimated by regressing the outcome variable on baseline characteristics for the full sample of experimental controls. We propose alternative methods that correct this bias and show that they behave well in realistic scenarios.

Mapping Urban Green Infrastructure: A Novel Landscape-Based Approach to Incorporating Land Use and Land Cover in the Mapping of Human-Dominated Systems

Abstract: Common approaches to mapping green infrastructure in urbanised landscapes invariably focus on measures of land use or land cover and associated functional or physical traits. However, such one-dimensional perspectives do not accurately capture the character and complexity of the landscapes in which urban inhabitants live. The new approach presented in this paper demonstrates how open-source, high spatial and temporal resolution data with global coverage can be used to measure and represent the landscape qualities of urban environments. Through going beyond simple metrics of quantity, such as percentage green and blue cover, it is now possible to explore the extent to which landscape quality helps to unpick the mixed evidence presented in the literature on the benefits of urban nature to human well-being. Here we present a landscape approach, employing remote sensing, GIS and data reduction techniques to map urban green infrastructure elements in a large U.K. city region. Comparison with existing urban datasets demonstrates considerable improvement in terms of coverage and thematic detail. The characterisation of landscapes, using census tracts as spatial units, and subsequent exploration of associations with social–ecological attributes highlights the further detail that can be uncovered by the approach. For example, eight urban landscape types identified for the case study city exhibited associations with distinct socioeconomic conditions accountable not only to quantities but also qualities of green and blue space. The identification of individual landscape features through simultaneous measures of land use and land cover demonstrated unique and significant associations between the former and indicators of human health and ecological condition. The approach may therefore provide a promising basis for developing further insight into processes and characteristics that affect human health and well-being in urban areas, both in the United Kingdom and beyond.

Short-Term Changes in the Prevalence of Probable Dementia: An Analysis of the 2011-2015 National Health and Aging Trends Study.

Abstract: Objectives Studies have reported decreasing dementia prevalence in recent decades in the United States. We explore with a new national data source whether declines have occurred since 2011, whether trends are attributable to shifts in dementia incidence or mortality, and whether trends are related to shifts in population composition or subgroup prevalence. Methods We use the 2011-2015 National Health and Aging Trends Study (N = 27,547) to examine prevalence of probable dementia among the 70 and older population. To minimize the influence of potential learning effects on prevalence rates, we require individuals to meet probable dementia criteria at two consecutive rounds. Results Prevalence of probable dementia declines over this period by 1.4% to 2.6% per year. Declines are concentrated among women, non-Hispanic white and black groups, and those with no vascular conditions or risk factors. The latter group also has experienced declines in dementia incidence. Declines in prevalence are largely attributable to age- and education-related shifts in population composition. Discussion Given the role of age and educational composition in short-term declines, the United States is likely to continue to experience short-term declines in dementia prevalence. However, persistently high rates among minority groups, especially of Hispanic origin, are concerning, and, barring new treatments, long-run trends may reverse course.

Association between fish consumption and risk of dementia: a new study from China and a systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

Abstract: OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of fish consumption with risk of dementia and its dose-response relationship, and investigate variations in the association among low-, middle- and high-income countries. DESIGN: A new community-based cross-sectional study and a systematic literature review. Settings Urban and rural communities in China; population-based studies systematically searched from worldwide literature. SUBJECTS: Chinese adults aged ≥60 years in six provinces (n 6981) took part in a household health survey of dementia prevalence and risk factors. In addition, 33 964 participants from eleven published and eligible studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. RESULTS: In the new study in China, 326 participants were diagnosed with dementia (4·7 %); those who consumed any amount of fish in the past two years v. those who consumed no fish had reduced risk of dementia (adjusted OR=0·73, 95 % CI 0·64, 0·99), but the dose-response relationship was not statistically significant. The meta-analysis of available data from the literature and the new study showed relative risk (RR) of dementia of 0·80 (95 % CI 0·74, 0·87) for people with fish consumption; the impact was similar among countries with different levels of income. Pooled dose-response data revealed RR (95 % CI) of 0·84 (0·72, 0·98), 0·78 (0·68, 0·90) and 0·77 (0·61, 0·98) in people with low, middle and high consumption of fish, respectively. Corresponding figures for Alzheimer's disease were 0·88 (0·74, 1·04), 0·79 (0·65, 0·96) and 0·67 (0·58, 0·78), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Greater consumption of fish is associated with a lower risk of dementia. Increasing fish consumption may help prevent dementia worldwide regardless of income level.

Medicaid Versus Marketplace Coverage For Near-Poor Adults: Effects On Out-Of-Pocket Spending And Coverage

Abstract: In states that expanded Medicaid eligibility under the Affordable Care Act, nonelderly near-poor adults—those with family incomes of 100–138 percent of the federal poverty level—are generally eligible for Medicaid, with no premiums and minimal cost sharing. In states that did not expand eligibility, these adults may qualify for premium tax credits to purchase Marketplace plans that have out-of-pocket premiums and cost-sharing requirements. We used data for 2010–15 to estimate the effects of Medicaid expansion on coverage and out-of-pocket expenses, compared to the effects of Marketplace coverage. For adults with family incomes of 100–138 percent of poverty, living in a Medicaid expansion state was associated with a 4.5-percentage-point reduction in the probability of being uninsured, a $344 decline in average total out-of-pocket spending, a 4.1-percentage-point decline in high out-of-pocket spending burden (that is, spending more than 10 percent of income), and a 7.7-percentage-point decline in the probab...

Connected in crime: the enduring effect of neighborhood networks on the spatial patterning of violence

Abstract: The unequal spatial distribution of crime is an enduring feature of cities. While research suggests that spatial diffusion processes heighten this concentration, the actual mechanisms of diffusion ...

Conditioning Experimentation: The struggle for place-based discretion in shaping urban infrastructures

Abstract: Re-shaping infrastructure systems and social practices within urban contexts has been promoted as a critical way to address a range of contemporary economic, environmental and social challenges. Though there are many attempts to re-imagine more sustainable urban contexts the challenge remains how to achieve such change. In this context, urban experiments have emerged as a way to stage purposive infrastructure interventions and learn what works in practice. The paper integrates literatures on urban governance and urban socio-technical experiments to extend analytical understanding of urban experimentation. Through a case study of ‘sustainable transport’ experimentation in Greater Manchester, we argue that place-based priorities that inform action on sustainable urban futures are conditioned by non-place-based, particularly national, interests. Our paper makes two key contributions. First, we illustrate how the (narrow) national conditioning of place-based priorities translates in to experimentation in epis...

Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: A Preliminary Analysis

Abstract: This paper examines the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, the largest tax overhaul since 1986. The new tax law makes substantial changes to the rates and bases of both the individual and corporate income taxes, cutting the corporate income tax rate to 21 percent, redesigning international tax rules, and providing a deduction for pass-through income. TCJA will stimulate the economy in the near term. Most models indicate that the long-term impact on GDP will be small. The impact will be smaller on GNP than on GDP because the law will generate net capital inflows from abroad that have to be repaid in the future. The new law will reduce federal revenues by significant amounts, even after allowing for the modest impact on economic growth. It will make the distribution of after-tax income more unequal, raise federal debt, and impose burdens on future generations. When it is ultimately financed with spending cuts or other tax increases, as it must be in the long run, TCJA will, under the most plausible scenarios, end up making most households worse off than if TCJA had not been enacted. The new law simplifies taxes in some ways but creates new complexity and compliance issues in others. It will raise health care premiums and reduce health insurance coverage and will have adverse effects on charitable contributions and some state and local governments. Looking forward, the ultimate effects of TCJA will depend on the currently uncertain responses of other countries, the Federal Reserve Board, and future Congresses, among others.

Underrepresenting neighbourhood vulnerabilities? The measurement of fuel poverty in England

Abstract: The vulnerabilities that enhance the likelihood of a household falling into fuel poverty are increasingly recognised as highly multidimensional and geographical. However, the most established indic...

Reexamining trends in premarital sex in the United States

Abstract: BACKGROUND In a heavily cited paper, Finer (2007) asserted that by age 30, 82% of US women born 1939–1948 engaged in premarital sex, increasing to 94% for those born 1969–1978. Using the same data, our age 30 estimates are 55% and 87% for women born 1939–1948 and 1969–1978. Our analyses thus document strikingly different levels and trends. METHODS We replicate Finer’s single-decrement Kaplan–Meier estimates of premarital sex using Cycles 3–6 of the National Survey of Family Growth, the same data as analyzed by him. We then contrast such single-decrement estimates for both premarital sex and first marriage with estimates of the simple percentages in three states: an origin state in which women begin life as never-married virgins and two destination states for first sex and for first marriage, depending on which occurs first. These analyses provide an empirical illustration of the fact that single-decrement estimates cannot be interpreted as simple percentages for demographic processes involving multiple decrements. RESULTS Our cohort estimates document increases in the percent of US women who had premarital sex by age 25, rising from 53% to 75%, 83%, and 87% for those born 1939–1948, 1949– 1958, 1959–1968, and 1969–1978, respectively. CONTRIBUTION Our cohort analyses reveal sharp increases in premarital sex for US women born between 1939 and 1968, with increases most rapid for those born in the 1940s and 1950s. Our findings also reemphasize a standard lesson from formal demography – that single-decrement 1 New York University, New York City, USA. Email: lawrence.wu@nyu.edu. 2 The Urban Institute, Washington, D.C., USA. 3 New York University, New York City, USA. http://www.demographic-research.org 727 Wu, Martin & England: Reexamining trends in premarital sex in the United States life table estimates cannot be interpreted as simple percentages for a multiple-decrement demographic process.

Evidence of Pent-Up Demand for Care After Medicaid Expansion.

Abstract: We compared new Medicaid enrollees with similar ongoing enrollees for evidence of pent-up demand using claims data following Minnesota's 2014 Medicaid expansion. We hypothesized that if new enrollees had pent-up demand, utilization would decline over time as testing and disease management plans are put in place. Consistent with pent-up demand among new enrollees, the probability of an office visit, a new patient office visit, and an emergency department visit declines over time for new enrollees relative to ongoing Medicaid enrollees. The pattern of utilization suggests that the newly insured are connecting with primary care after the 2014 Medicaid expansion and, unlike ongoing Medicaid enrollees; the newly insured have a declining reliance on the emergency department over time.

Interdependence between Urban Processes and Energy Transitions: The Dimensions of Urban Energy Transitions (DUET) Framework

Abstract: This paper presents a framework to study the interdependence between urban processes and energy transitions – the Dimensions of Urban Energy Transitions (DUET) framework. The framework emerges from current debates about the need to incorporate systematically the spatial and political dimensions of urban energy transitions. We seek to develop a systematic framework that brings together well-established principles of transitions theory with insights from recent debates about how transitions unfold in urban contexts. Illustrated through a comparative meta-analysis of 29 case studies of urban energy transitions, the DUET framework provides an approach that considers simultaneously three dimensions of energy transitions: socio-technical experimentation, urban political processes, and socio-spatial (re)configuration. The three dimensions interact closely with each other and together enforce ‘transitions of cities’. From DUET framework, it argues that alignment between industry interests and territorial priorities is key to meaningful energy transitions.

The effect of vacant building demolitions on crime under depopulation

Abstract: The costs of demolishing a vacant building are often justified on the grounds of crime reduction. I explore this claim by estimating the spatial and temporal effects of demolitions on reported crime in the city of Saginaw, Michigan. To do so, I estimate a model that uses within-block group variation to compare crime after a demolition occurs to before the permit for that demolition was issued. Results indicate that demolitions reduce crime by about 8 percent on the block group in question and 5 percent on nearby block groups, with the largest impact concentrated one to two months after the demolition occurs.

Austerity urbanism and Olympic counter-legacies: gendering, defending and expanding the urban commons in East London

Abstract: This article reflects on an occupation led by single mothers to contest the destruction of social housing in post-Olympics East London. In the process, it argues for a more gendered theorisation of the urban commons. Drawing on auto-ethnography, participant observation and qualitative interviews, the article argues three central points: First, that the occupation demonstrates the gendered nature of the urban commons and the leadership of women in defending them from enclosure; second that the defence of an existing urban commons enabled the creation of a new temporary commons characterised by the collectivisation of gendered socially reproductive activities; and third that this commoning has had a lasting impact on housing activism at the city scale and beyond. This impact is conceptualised as an ‘Olympic counter-legacy’ that is characterised by the forging of new relationships and affinities, the strengthening of networked activism and circulation of tactics between campaign groups.

Childhood Sexual Abuse and Antisocial Traits and Behaviors: A Gendered Examination of the Factors Associated With Perpetration of Intimate Partner Violence

Abstract: The current study addressed the relationship between child sexual abuse (CSA) and perpetration of physical intimate partner violence, examining the possible mediating effect of antisocial traits and behaviors, as well as the differences in these relationships between men and women. Data came from the International Dating Violence Study. Hypotheses were tested on a sample of 13,659 university students from 68 sites and 32 countries using hierarchical linear modeling. Results indicated that CSA was significantly associated with perpetration of physical intimate partner violence for both men and women. The slope of the relationships, however, varied across sites for women. Antisocial traits and behaviors fully mediated the relationship between CSA and perpetration of physical intimate partner violence for women but only partially mediated this relationship for men. Increased focus needs to be paid to gender differences on the effect of CSA on the development of antisocial traits and behaviors, the relationship between these factors and perpetration of intimate partner violence, and the variation of these relationships across nations.

The Growth of Control? Changes in Local Land-Use Regulation in Major U.S. Metropolitan Areas From 1994 to 2003

Abstract: Amid concerns that increasingly stringent local land-use regulations are constraining housing development across the United States, there is a need for an empirical investigation into wheth...

Declining Medicaid Fees and Primary Care Appointment Availability for New Medicaid Patients.

Abstract: Appointment Availability for New Medicaid Patients Under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), Medicaid fees for primary care physicians were raised to Medicare levels in 2013 and 2014. The size of the federally funded increase varied widely, as Medicaid fees were close to Medicare levels in some states and Medicaid paid less than half for the same services in other states.1 A previous study found that higher Medicaid fees in 2014 were associated with increased primary care appointment availability for new Medicaid patients.2 Now that most states have returned to lower fee levels, it is time to examine whether declining Medicaid fees are associated with decreased primary care appointment availability for new Medicaid patients.

Client Led Coaching: A Random Assignment Evaluation of the Impacts of Financial Coaching Programs

Abstract: We undertake the first rigorous evaluation of financial coaching using a randomized controlled trial at two sites. We estimate both treatment uptake and treatment outcomes, including intent to treat estimates and complier average causal effects. Data are drawn from individual-level credit reporting firm records and baseline and follow-up surveys. Results indicate that financial coaching produces a number of significant effects on behaviors and outcomes related to money management, debt, savings, and perceptions of financial well-being. Most notably, at one site, financial coaching helped participants to increase their savings and credit scores, and at the other, it helped them to reduce their aggregate and delinquent debt.

Failing health of the United States

Abstract: The role of challenging life conditions and the policies behind them

Son Preference of Immigrants to the United States: Data from U.S. Birth Certificates, 2004-2013.

Abstract: Son preference has existed for centuries in many cultures and societies. In some Asian countries, including China and India, the sex ratio at birth (SRB, number of male infants divided by number of female infants times 100) is elevated above the worldwide biological norm of about 105. We investigate whether this ratio is elevated in the U.S. for immigrant women. We analyze U.S. birth certificates for 2004–2013 and categorize births by mother’s and father’s race/ethnicity; mother’s place of birth, and birth order of the child. The SRB is elevated for two groups of women: Chinese women born in China for children of birth order 2 and higher, and Indian women born in India for children of birth order 3 and higher. The SRB is not elevated for Chinese and Indian women born in the U.S., nor for Mexican women, Black women, nor White women, regardless of place of birth. The race/ethnicity of the child’s father does not appear to be a strong factor in the SRB. In the early twenty-first century the elevated SRB for Chinese and Indian women born in China and India respectively suggests sex selection for higher order births in the U.S.

What the experiences of South Africa’s mass housing programme teach us about the contribution of civil society to policy and programme reform

Abstract: Experiences of apartheid in South Africa have resulted in the association of shelter with citizenship, adding significance to the concept of “home”. This paper reviews experiences with grassroots efforts to make the government’s housing policy and programme more effective in addressing the needs of the urban poor. The experiences offer lessons relevant within and beyond South Africa. First, collaboration between state and civil society has been possible and has added substantively to the effectiveness of state programming. But, with a multiplicity of government agencies, the context is difficult. Housing construction has been constrained by delayed subsidy payments, and by a professionalization that limits opportunities for low-income residents. Second, community initiatives have had multiple incremental and positive influences on state policy and programmes, but substantive progress requires government adopting a more inclusive policy. Civil society agencies remain ambitious about the potential for secur...

‘Dispersing, Regulating and Upgrading’: urban villages in suburban Beijing

Abstract: Urban villages in China are very much a phenomenon of socio-spatial segregation rooted in deeply institutionalised urban–rural administrative dualism. This paper makes an original contribution to t...

Modeling Health Care Spending Growth of Older Adults.

Abstract: Objective To forecast out-of-pocket health care spending among older adults. Long-term forecasts allow policy makers to explore potential impacts of policy scenarios, but existing microsimulations do not incorporate details of supplemental insurance coverage and income effects on health care spending. Data Sources Dynamic microsimulation calibrated to survey and administrative data. Study Design We augment Urban Institute's Dynamic Simulation of Income Model (DYNASIM) with modules that incorporate demand responses and economic equilibria, with dynamics driven by exogenous technological change. A lengthy technical appendix provides details of the microsimulation model and economic assumptions for readers interested in applying these techniques. Principal Findings The model projects total out-of-pocket spending (point of care plus premiums) as a share of income for adults aged 65 and older. People with lower incomes and poor health fare worse, despite protections of Medicaid. Spending rises 40 percent from 2012 to 2035 (from 10 to 14 percent of income) for the median beneficiary, but it increases from 5 to 25 percent of income for low-income beneficiaries and from 23 to 29 percent for the near poor who are in fair/poor health. Conclusions Despite Medicare coverage, near-poor seniors will face out-of-pocket spending that would render them, in practical terms, underinsured.

Spatial analysis of logistics center location: A comprehensive approach

Abstract: To select a suitable logistic center (LC) location it is necessary to do a comprehensive spatial analysis. Geographic information systems (GIS) are ideal for this type of spatial analysis which provides functionality to capture, store, and query, as well as analyze geographic information. The paper presents novel methodology for a LC location analysis based on GIS and SWOT analyses. The proposed method uses a GIS for data collection, spatial analysis, generating alternatives, and producing maps for further analysis. We used the GIS to support decision-making and for an analysis of the location attributes, including a number of relevant factors, namely spatial position, intermodal connections (road, water, air and rail transport), the size of the available location, topography, local traffic connections, environment, ecological aspect of the location, ownership structure, equipment of communal infrastructure, constraints in the area, etc. We used the SWOT analysis to determine strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of the local area for attracting capital, knowledge and innovation. Experimental results on real-world problems, i.e., application of the proposed comprehensive methodology in a case study of a location analysis for the logistic center in the Municipality of Apatin, Vojvodina, Serbia, show that the proposed methodology provides upstanding results in the spatial analysis.