Showing papers in "Demography in 2003"
TL;DR: Increased education, higher socioeconomic status, non-Muslim religion, and extended family residence are found to be associated with lower risks of violence in two rural areas of Bangladesh.
Abstract: We explore the determinants of domestic violence in two rural areas of Bangladesh. We found increased education, higher socioeconomic status, non-Muslim religion, and extended family residence to be associated with lower risks of violence. The effects of women's status on violence was found to be highly context-specific. In the more culturally conservative area, higher individual-level women's autonomy and short-term membership in savings and credit groups were both associated with significantly elevated risks of violence, and community-level variables were unrelated to violence. In the less culturally conservative area, in contrast, individual-level women's status indicators were unrelated to the risk of violence, and community-level measures of women's status were associated with significantly lower risks of violence, presumably by reinforcing nascent normative changes in gender relations.
665 citations
TL;DR: The effect of education strengthens across age, that this pattern is becoming stronger across cohorts, and that these patterns are suppressed when either effect is ignored.
Abstract: Recent medical sociological research has examined whether the relationship between education and health is dynamic across age, whereas recent demographic research has examined whether the relationship varies across cohorts. In this study, I examine how cohort structures the influence of education on life-course health trajectories. At the cohort level, changes in education and in the distribution of health and mortality make cohort differences in education’s effect probable. At the life-course level, the effect of education may vary across age because the mediators of the education-health relationship may vary in their relevance to health across the life course. Using basic regression analyses and random-effects models of two national data sets, I find that the effect of education strengthens across age, that this pattern is becoming stronger across cohorts, and that these patterns are suppressed when either effect is ignored.
493 citations
TL;DR: The results show selective neglect of children with certain sex and birth-order combinations that operate differentially for girls and boys, suggesting that parents want some balance in sex composition.
Abstract: This article examines the role of the sex composition of surviving older siblings on gender differences in childhood nutrition and immunization, using data from the National Family Health Survey, India (1992–1993). Logit and ordered logit models were used for severe stunting and immunization, respectively. The results show selective neglect of children with certain sex and birth-order combinations that operate differentially for girls and boys. Both girls and boys who were born after multiple same-sex siblings experience poor outcomes, suggesting that parents want some balance in sex composition. However, the preference for sons persists, and boys who were born after multiple daughters have the best possible outcomes.
409 citations
TL;DR: The impact of family migrant and destination-specific networks on international and internal migration is compared and it is found that migrant networks are more important for international moves than for internal moves and that female networks areMore important than male networks for moves within Mexico.
Abstract: This article compares the impact of family migrant and destination-specific networks on international and internal migration. We find that migrant networks are more important for international moves than for internal moves and that female networks are more important than male networks for moves within Mexico. For moves to the United States, male migrant networks are more important for prospective male migrants than for female migrants, and female migrant networks lower the odds of male migration, but significantly increase female migration. We suggest that distinguishing the gender composition and destination content of migrant networks deepens our understanding of how cumulative causation affects patterns of Mexican migration.
392 citations
TL;DR: Using recently released cohabitation data for the male sample of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, multinomial discrete-time event-history analyses of how young men’s career-development process affects both the formation and the dissolution of cohabiting unions found marriage was a far more likely outcome for both stably employed cohabitors and noncohabitors alike.
Abstract: Using recently released cohabitation data for the male sample of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, first interviewed in 1979, I conducted multinomial discrete-time event-history analyses of how young men’s career-development process affects both the formation and the dissolution of cohabiting unions. For a substantial proportion of young men, cohabitation seemed to represent an adaptive strategy during a period of career immaturity, whereas marriage was a far more likely outcome for both stably employed cohabitors and noncohabitors alike. Earnings positively affected the entry into either a cohabiting or marital union but exhibited a strong threshold effect. Once the men were in cohabiting unions, however, earnings had little effect on the odds of marrying. Men with better long-run socioeconomic prospects were far more likely to marry from either the noncohabiting or cohabiting state, and this was particularly true for blacks.
356 citations
TL;DR: Substantial and significant differences in reported rates of premarital sex across interview modes are indicated, although not always in the expected direction.
Abstract: Does audio computer-assisted self-interviewing (ACASI) produce more valid reporting of sexual activity and related behaviors than face-to-face interviews or self-administered interviews? This analysis, based on data collected from over 6,000 unmarried adolescents in two districts of Kenya—Nyeri and Kisumu—indicates substantial and significant differences in reported rates of premarital sex across interview modes, although not always in the expected direction. Our assumption that girls underreport sexual activity in face-to-face interviews by comparison with ACASI is not confirmed by the Nyeri data, but our results from Kisumu are considerably more promising. As for boys, who we believe exaggerate their level of sexual activity in face-to-face interviews, a more nuanced set of expectations regarding the reporting of sensitive behaviors was offered; our results from Kisumu, although not always significant, by and large conform to expectations.
293 citations
TL;DR: The results show that the number of children is an important determinant of support, but future reductions in support may not be as dramatic as anticipated.
Abstract: Change in China’s age structure is creating concerns about whether reductions in family size undermine traditional support mechanisms for older adults. Future generations may expect less support as the availability of children declines. In this article, the association between number of children and the receipt of instrumental and financial support is examined for rural and urban populations. Probabilities are modeled as bivariate probits. Coefficients are used to conduct simulations in which support is examined across hypothetical distributions of number of children. The results show that the number of children is an important determinant of support, but future reductions in support may not be as dramatic as anticipated.
292 citations
TL;DR: There are both persistent rationales for having children and institutional adjustments that can make the widespread intentions for two children attainable, even in increasingly individualistic and egalitarian societies.
Abstract: Nearly half of the world’s population in 2000 lived in countries with fertility rates at or below replacement level, and nearly all countries will reach low fertility levels in the next two decades. Concerns about low fertility, fertility that is well below replacement, are widespread. But there are both persistent rationales for having children and institutional adjustments that can make the widespread intentions for two children attainable, even in increasingly individualistic and egalitarian societies.
288 citations
TL;DR: The results indicate that all five measures of earnings potential strongly and positively influence the likelihood of marriage for men, but not for women.
Abstract: This article explores the relationship between economic potential and rates of entry into marriage and cohabitation. Using data from the 1990 census and the 1980–1992 High School and Beyond (Sophomore Cohort), we developed a method for explicitly estimating five time-varying measures of earnings potential. The analyses of union formation are based on an intergenerational panel study of parents and children, to which our measures of earnings potential were appended. The results indicate that all five measures of earnings potential strongly and positively influence the likelihood of marriage for men, but not for women. Earnings potential does not affect entry into cohabiting unions for either men or women.
242 citations
TL;DR: Women who were employed or were homemakers, and who had employed husbands, had comparatively stable marriages; couples in which the husband, the wife, or both partners were unemployed had an elevated risk of divorce.
Abstract: This study investigated the joint effects of spouses’ socioeconomic positions on the risk of divorce in Finland. For couples in which both partners were at the lowest educational level, the risk of divorce was lower than could be expected on the basis of the previously documented overall inverse association between each spouse’s education and the risk of divorce. Women who were employed or were homemakers, and who had employed husbands, had comparatively stable marriages; couples in which the husband, the wife, or both partners were unemployed had an elevated risk of divorce. A husband’s high income decreased the risk of divorce, and a wife’s high income increased the risk at all levels of the other spouse’s income, but especially when the wife’s income exceeded the husband’s.
239 citations
TL;DR: Two nationally representative cohorts—from the National Educational Longitudinal Study (NELS) and High School and Beyond (HSB)—were used to examine the effects of generation and duration of residence on students’ performance on standardized tests over a two-year period.
Abstract: Two nationally representative cohorts—from the National Educational Longitudinal Study (NELS) and High School and Beyond (HSB)—were used to examine the effects of generation and duration of residence on students’ performance on standardized tests over a two-year period. In multivariate models, generational status predicts variation in students’ performance on baseline (sophomore) tests, with effects stronger for the later age cohort (NELS) than for the earlier age cohort (HSB). With regard to the trajectory of achievement, generational status has a greatly reduced role for both cohorts. The best predictors of the trajectory of achievement are not those that are based on nativity per se, but those that reflect the social environment experienced in the United States (i.e., ethnicity and family’s socioeconomic status).
TL;DR: Evidence is presented from northern India to show that the preference for sons is reduced when the ideal family size becomes small, even though it does not completely disappear, which appears to contradict trends in the juvenile sex ratio and the incidence of female feticide that suggest the intensification of gender bias.
Abstract: Although it is widely acknowledged that the preference for sons is a barrier to a decline in fertility considerable disagreement exists as to what actually happens to this preference when fertility declines in a region of low female autonomy. By analyzing the data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) we present evidence from northern India to show that the preference for sons is reduced when the ideal family size becomes small even though it does not completely disappear. This finding appears to contradict trends in the juvenile sex ratio and the incidence of female feticide that suggest the intensification of gender bias. We argue that the anomaly is the result of a diffusion of prenatal sex-diagnostic techniques in regions where there is a large unmet demand for such methods. Using the NFHS data we estimate that in northern India girls currently constitute about 60% of the unwanted births and that the elimination of unwanted fertility has the potential to raise the sex ratio at birth to 130 boys per 100 girls. (authors)
TL;DR: This work extends Nathan Keyfitz’s research on continuous change in life expectancy over time by presenting and proving a new formula for decomposing such change, and extends the formula to decompose change inlife expectancy into age-specific and cause-specific components.
Abstract: We extend Nathan Keyfitz’s research on continuous change in life expectancy over time by presenting and proving a new formula for decomposing such change. The formula separates change in life expectancy over time into two terms. The first term captures the general effect of reduction in death rates at all ages, and the second term captures the effect of heterogeneity in the pace of improvement in mortality at different ages. We extend the formula to decompose change in life expectancy into age-specific and cause-specific components, and apply the methods to analyze changes in life expectancy in Sweden and Japan.
TL;DR: Findings are consistent, albeit weakly, with the argument that higher education should be negatively associated with marriage only in countries in which gender relations make it particularly difficult for women to balance work and family.
Abstract: I use data from a large nationally representative survey to examine the relationship between women’s educational attainment and the timing of first marriage in Japan. The results indicate that later marriage for highly educated women primarily reflects longer enrollment in school, that university education is increasingly associated with later and less marriage, and that the trend toward later and less marriage is occurring at all levels of educational attainment. These findings are consistent, albeit weakly, with the argument that higher education should be negatively associated with marriage only in countries in which gender relations make it particularly difficult for women to balance work and family.
TL;DR: The effects of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act, which granted amnesty to nearly 2.7 million undocumented immigrants, suggest that the amnesty program did not change long-term patterns of undocumented immigration from Mexico.
Abstract: This article examines whether mass legalization programs reduce future undocumented immigration. We focus on the effects of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act, which granted amnesty to nearly 2.7 million undocumented immigrants. We report that apprehensions of persons attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border illegally declined immediately following passage of the law but returned to normal levels during the period when undocumented immigrants could file for amnesty and the years thereafter. Our findings suggest that the amnesty program did not change long-term patterns of undocumented immigration from Mexico.
TL;DR: The birth of a son speeds the transition into marriage when the child is born before the mother’s first marriage, consistent with a marital-search model in which sons, more than daughters, increase the value of marriage relative to single parenthood.
Abstract: We estimate the effect of a child’s gender on the mother’s probability of marriage or remarriage using data from the PSID Marital History and Childbirth and Adoption History Files. We find that the birth of a son speeds the transition into marriage when the child is born before the mother’s first marriage. A competing-risks analysis shows that the positive effect of a son is stronger for marriages to the child’s biological father than for other marriages. We find no significant effect of child gender on the mother’s remarriage probabilities when the children are born within a previous marriage. These results are consistent with a marital-search model in which sons, more than daughters, increase the value of marriage relative to single parenthood.
TL;DR: The results indicate that legislation providing the right to unpaid leave has not affected men’s leave usage and point to the limited impact of unpaid leave policies and the potential importance of paid-leave policies.
Abstract: We use data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation to examine the impact of leave entitlements on unpaid leave usage by men and women after the birth of a child from 1991 to 1999. The results indicate that legislation providing the right to unpaid leave has not affected men’s leave usage. The results for women are mixed: in some specifications, leave entitlements are associated with increased leave taking or longer leaves, but the results depend on how we define leave coverage. Our results point to the limited impact of unpaid leave policies and the potential importance of paid-leave policies.
TL;DR: It is found that income growth explains most of the trend in absolute poverty, while inequality generally plays the most significant role in explaining trends in relative poverty.
Abstract: After dramatic declines in poverty from 1950 to the early 1970s in the United States, progress stalled. This article examines the association between trends in poverty and income growth, economic inequality, and changes in family structure using three measures of poverty: an absolute measure, a relative measure, and a quasi-relative one. I found that income growth explains most of the trend in absolute poverty, while inequality generally plays the most significant role in explaining trends in relative poverty. Rising inequality in the 1970s and 1980s was especially important in explaining increases in poverty among Hispanics, whereas changes in family structure played a significant role for children and African Americans through 1990. Notably, changes in family structure no longer had a significant association with trends in poverty for any group in the 1990s.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present evidence from northern India to show that the preference for sons is reduced when the ideal family size becomes small, even though it does not completely disappear, and argue that the anomaly is the result of a diffusion of prenatal sex-diagnostic techniques in regions where there is a large unmet demand for such methods.
Abstract: Although it is widely acknowledged that the preference for sons is a barrier to a decline in fertility, considerable disagreement exists as to what actually happens to this preference when fertility declines in a region of low female autonomy. By analyzing the data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), we present evidence from northern India to show that the preference for sons is reduced when the ideal family size becomes small, even though it does not completely disappear. This finding appears to contradict trends in the juvenile sex ratio and the incidence of female feti-cide that suggest the intensification of gender bias. We argue that the anomaly is the result of a diffusion of prenatal sex-diagnostic techniques in regions where there is a large unmet demand for such methods. Using the NFHS data, we estimate that in northern India, girls currently constitute about 60% of the unwanted births and that the elimination of unwanted fertility has the potential to raise the sex ratio at birth to 130 boys per 100 girls.
TL;DR: The hypothesis that higher infant and child mortality among Muslim populations is related to the lower autonomy of Muslim women is evaluated using data from 15 pairs of Muslim and non-Muslim communities in India, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand.
Abstract: In this article, I evaluate the hypothesis that higher infant and child mortality among Muslim populations is related to the lower autonomy of Muslim women using data from 15 pairs of Muslim and non-Muslim communities in India, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Women’s autonomy in various spheres is not consistently lower in Muslim than in non-Muslim settings. Both across and within communities, the association between women’s autonomy and mortality is weak, and measures of autonomy or socioeconomic status are generally of limited import for understanding the Muslim disadvantage in children’s survival.
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that sibship size is associated with lower overall wealth in adulthood and that parents’ resources and education, respondent’s education, financial transfers, and financial behavior all mitigate the effect of siblings.
Abstract: Inequality in wealth has been well-documented, but its causes remain uncertain. Family processes in childhood are likely to shape adults’ wealth accumulation, but these factors have attracted little attention. I argue that family size matters: children from larger families accumulate less wealth than do those from smaller families. Siblings dilute parents’ finite financial resources and nonmaterial resources, such as time. This diminishment of resources reduces educational attainment, inter vivos transfers, and inheritance. Reduced educational attainment and transfers alter financial behavior; saving; and, ultimately, adults’ wealth. I demonstrate that sibship size is associated with lower overall wealth in adulthood and that parents’ resources and education, respondent’s education, financial transfers, and financial behavior all mitigate the effect of siblings. Sibship size also reduces the likelihood of receiving a trust account or an inheritance and decreases home- and stock ownership. The findings provide important insights into early family processes that shape wealth accumulation and inequality.
TL;DR: The results indicate that absolute material conditions are the most important determinants of socioeconomic effects on the risk of infant mortality and that while poverty has the most pronounced effect on risk, income is decreasingly salutary across the majority of the mortality gradient.
Abstract: Although relationships between social conditions and health have been documented for centuries, the past few decades have witnessed the emergence of socioeconomic gradients in health and mortality in most developed countries. These gradients indicate that health improves, although decreasingly so, at higher levels of socioeconomic status. To minimize problems with reverse causality, I tested competing hypotheses for observed socioeconomic gradients for infant mortality outcomes. I found no support for the income-inequality hypothesis and negligible support for the occupational-grade hypothesis. The results indicate that absolute material conditions are the most important determinants of socioeconomic effects on the risk of infant mortality and that while poverty has the most pronounced effect on risk, income is decreasingly salutary across the majority of the mortality gradient.
TL;DR: The results suggest that in the absence of welfare reform, the national breast-feeding rate six months after birth would have been 5.5% higher in 2000.
Abstract: A central theme of welfare reform is that recipients are required to engage in work activities. In many states, these work requirements apply to mothers whose children are a few months old, which may increase the costs and decrease the prevalence of breast-feeding. Given the substantial benefits of breast-feeding, any reduction represents an important negative consequence of these requirements. Our results suggest that in the absence of welfare reform, the national breast-feeding rate six months after birth would have been 5.5% higher in 2000. Such negative consequences of these policies must be weighed against potential benefits as states refine their welfare programs.
TL;DR: New estimates of nineteenth-century mortality and the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series suggest that U.S. fertility did not begin its secular decline until circa 1840, and new estimates of white marital fertility, based on “own-children” methods, suggest that the decline in marital fertilitydid not begin in the nation as a whole until after the Civil War.
Abstract: In this article, I rely on new estimates of nineteenth-century mortality and the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series to construct new estimates of white fertility in the nineteenth-century United States. Unlike previous estimates that showed a long-term decline in overall fertility beginning at or before the turn of the nineteenth century, the new estimates suggest that U.S. fertility did not begin its secular decline until circa 1840. Moreover, new estimates of white marital fertility, based on “own-children” methods, suggest that the decline in marital fertility did not begin in the nation as a whole until after the Civil War (1861–1865).
TL;DR: A strong and consistent relationship is found between the sex difference and the stage of diffusion of the use of cigarettes and the byproduct of a lag in the adoption, diffusion, and abatement of smoking by women.
Abstract: After decades of widening, the difference in mortality from lung cancer between men and women has begun to narrow in recent years. Recognizing that the increase in smoking among women relative to men is the proximate cause of the changing sex difference in rates of lung cancer, I analyzed two approaches to identify the more distant sources of the changes. A gender-equality argument suggests that the difference is related to the more general equalization of women’s and men’s work and family roles, which also encourages the adoption of harmful behaviors such as smoking by women. An alternative explanation suggests that the convergence in mortality from lung cancer among men and women is the byproduct of a lag in the adoption, diffusion, and abatement of smoking by women. Using mortality data on 21 nations from 1955 to 1996, an analysis of logged rates of men’s and women’s lung cancer mortality and the logged ratio of the rates demonstrated little relationship between the sex difference and gender equality. However, I found a strong and consistent relationship between the sex difference and the stage of diffusion of the use of cigarettes.
TL;DR: The findings suggest that political, demographic, and economic forces all exerted downward pressure on child-support payments during this 30-year period, with inflation, the shift to unilateral divorce, and declines in fertility and men’s earnings being more important during the earlier years and decreases in men's earnings during the later years.
Abstract: We use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to examine trends in the receipt of child support (and the determinants of trends) between 1968 and 1997. The findings suggest that political, demographic, and economic forces all exerted downward pressure on child-support payments during this 30-year period, with inflation, the shift to unilateral divorce, and declines in fertility and men’s earnings being more important during the earlier years and decreases in men’s earnings being more important during the later years. These negative forces were offset by the passage of new child-support legislation in the 1980s and 1990s, including numeric guidelines, universal withholding, and genetic testing.
TL;DR: It is found that age-group error patterns are different for national projections than for subnational projections; that errors are substantially larger for some age groups than for others; that differences among age groups decline as the projection horizon becomes longer; and that differences in methodological complexity have no consistent impact on the precision and bias of age- group projections.
Abstract: A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group, rather than the population as a whole. We investigated the precision and bias of a variety of age-group projections at the national and state levels in the United States and for counties in Florida. We also compared the accuracy of state and county projections that were derived from full-blown applications of the cohort-component method with the accuracy of projections that were derived from a simpler, less data-intensive version of the method. We found that age-group error patterns are different for national projections than for subnational projections; that errors are substantially larger for some age groups than for others; that differences in errors among age groups decline as the projection horizon becomes longer; and that differences in methodological complexity have no consistent impact on the precision and bias of age-group projections.
TL;DR: A multilevel multiprocess model is applied to examine the impact of method choice on three types of contraceptive discontinuation in Indonesia to confirm that method choice is endogenous to the processes of contraceptive abandonment and method switching, but not failure.
Abstract: The contraceptive method chosen is an important determinant of contraceptive discontinuation. However, method choice is endogenous to contraceptive discontinuation. Using data from the 1997 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey, we apply a multilevel multiprocess model to examine the impact of method choice on three types of contraceptive discontinuation. We confirm that method choice is endogenous to the processes of contraceptive abandonment and method switching, but not failure. Ignoring the endogeneity of contraceptive choice leads to various biases in the magnitude of estimated effects of method choice on abandonment and method switching, but the general conclusions are robust to these biases.
TL;DR: Differences in the relationship between measured characteristics and birth weight accounted for around half the birth-weight gap between non-Hispanic black and other infants in Chicago in 1990.
Abstract: We examine differences in the mean birth weights of infants born to non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic white, and Mexican-origin Hispanic mothers (of any race) in Chicago in 1990 using linear regression models with neighborhood fixed effects Our pooled models accounted for 64% of the black-white difference and 57% of the black/Mexican-origin Hispanic difference Differences in the relationship between measured characteristics and birth weight accounted for around half the birth-weight gap between non-Hispanic black and other infants Efforts to close this gap must go beyond programs that aim to reduce the level of risk factors among black women to address the causes of differences in the effects of risk factors
TL;DR: This paper extends previous work on premarital childbearing by modeling both the entry rates and the exit rates of unwed motherhood among young American women and investigating the impact of economic resources on the likelihood of experiencing a premarITAL birth and then of subsequent marriage.
Abstract: This paper extends previous work on premarital childbearing by modeling both the entry rates and the exit rates of unwed motherhood among young American women. In particular, I investigate the impact of economic resources on the likelihood of experiencing a premarital birth and then of subsequent marriage. Using a multiple-destination, multiple-spell hazard regression model and a microsimulation analysis, I analyze the accumulating effects of various economic variables. The results show that the economic resources are indeed important both for premarital childbearing and for subsequent marriage. However, the simulations show that large changes in these economic variables do not necessarily translate into large changes in nonmarital childbearing.