Showing papers in "Environment Systems and Decisions in 2013"

Resilience metrics for cyber systems

Abstract: As federal agencies and businesses rely more on cyber infrastructure, they are increasingly vulnerable to cyber attacks that can cause damages disproportionate to the sophistication and cost to launch the attack. In response, regulatory authorities call for focusing attention on enhancing infrastructure resilience. For example, in the USA, President Obama issued an Executive Order and policy directives focusing on improving the resilience and security of cyber infrastructure to a wide range of cyber threats. Despite the national and international importance, resilience metrics to inform management decisions are still in the early stages of development. We apply the resilience matrix framework developed by Linkov et al. (Environ Sci Technol 47:10108–10110, 2013) to develop and organize effective resilience metrics for cyber systems. These metrics link national policy goals to specific system measures, such that resource allocation decisions can be translated into actionable interventions and investments. In this paper, a number of metrics have been identified and assessed using quantitative and qualitative measures found in the literature. We have proposed a generic approach and could integrate actual data, technical judgment, and literature-based measures to assess system resilience across physical, information, cognitive, and social domains.

Double catastrophe: intermittent stratospheric geoengineering induced by societal collapse

Abstract: Perceived failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has prompted interest in avoiding the harms of climate change via geoengineering, that is, the intentional manipulation of Earth system processes. Perhaps the most promising geoengineering technique is stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which reflects incoming solar radiation, thereby lowering surface temperatures. This paper analyzes a scenario in which SAI brings great harm on its own. The scenario is based on the issue of SAI intermittency, in which aerosol injection is halted, sending temperatures rapidly back toward where they would have been without SAI. The rapid temperature increase could be quite damaging, which in turn creates a strong incentive to avoid intermittency. In the scenario, a catastrophic societal collapse eliminates society’s ability to continue SAI, despite the incentive. The collapse could be caused by a pandemic, nuclear war, or other global catastrophe. The ensuing intermittency hits a population that is already vulnerable from the initial collapse, making for a double catastrophe. While the outcomes of the double catastrophe are difficult to predict, plausible worst-case scenarios include human extinction. The decision to implement SAI is found to depend on whether global catastrophe is more likely from double catastrophe or from climate change alone. The SAI double catastrophe scenario also strengthens arguments for greenhouse gas emissions reductions and against SAI, as well as for building communities that could be self-sufficient during global catastrophes. Finally, the paper demonstrates the value of integrative, systems-based global catastrophic risk analysis.

Groundwater-level trends and implications for sustainable water use in the Kabul Basin, Afghanistan

Abstract: The Kabul Basin, which includes the city of Kabul, Afghanistan, with a population of approximately 4 million, has several Afghan, United States, and international military installations that depend on groundwater resources for a potable water supply. This study examined groundwater levels in the Kabul Basin from 2004 to 2012. Groundwater levels have increased slightly in rural areas of the Kabul Basin as a result of normal precipitation after the drought of the early 2000s. However, groundwater levels have decreased in the city of Kabul due to increasing water use in an area with limited recharge. The rate of groundwater-level decrease in the city is greater for the 2008–2012 period (1.5 meters per year (m/yr) on average) than for the 2004–2008 period (0–0.7 m/yr on average). The analysis, which is corroborated by groundwater-flow modeling and a non-governmental organization decision-support model, identified groundwater-level decreases and associated implications for groundwater sustainability in the city of Kabul. Military installations in the city of Kabul (the Central Kabul subbasin) are likely to face water management challenges resulting from long-term groundwater sustainability concerns, such as the potential drying of shallow water-supply wells. Installations in the northern part of the Kabul Basin may have fewer issues with long-term water sustainability. Groundwater-level monitoring and groundwater-flow simulation can be valuable tools for assessing groundwater management options to improve the sustainability of water resources in the Kabul Basin.

Should I stay or should I go? An experimental study of health and economic government policies following a severe biological agent release

Abstract: Extensive research has explored policy chal- lenges associated with preparing and responding to a large- scale biological release. A key component in recovery strategy development that has received less attention is the understanding of government policy influence on the impacted populations' migratory decisions. This study experimentally manipulates health and economic govern- ment policies during response and recovery to assess the extent to which public migration is contingent on the level of government intervention. Set immediately following a large- scale anthrax release in San Francisco, we use a five episode video scenario to describe details about the environmental impacts of the disaster, emergency response procedures, and clean-up operations. Within these video segments, the extent of government involvement in economic and health risk policies is manipulated. Using these manipulations as pre- dictors, we track how varying levels of government risk signals influence migration behavior at three distinct decision points during disaster recovery. In addition, two belief scales and two scales of emotion (affect) are included as predictors to explore the potential for their mediating role in explaining intentions to migrate. We find that the decision to migrate is highly context-sensitive, with each decision point showing a unique combination of significant predictors influencing decision making. At 19 days following the anthrax release, the health risk policy manipulation has both a direct and indirect effect on migration behavior. At 3 months, the influence of the health risk policy manipulation is mediated by beliefs, and at 1 year, only indirect effects associated with affect and beliefs influence migration.

Socio-economic, environmental, and governance impacts of illegal logging

Abstract: This article examines the main impacts of the illegal logging activities with emphasis on the most important timber production regions. Although the discussion is focused on the environmental, socio-economic and governance impacts, it must be stressed that the term forest governance is the umbrella where the economy, the environmental values, and welfare of forest-dependent communities are sheltered. Considering the effects/impacts of the illegal logging as a whole, we can summarize the following negative key points: (1) Degradation of the most valuable forest stands threatening biodiversity, including rare and endangered species. (2) Increase in soil erosion and landslides. Increase in CO2 release and climatic changes. (3) Human rights abuses and disrespect of the basic needs of local communities and their culture. (4) Corruption, crime, coercion, and money laundering. (5) Reduction of royalties, taxes, and other charges paid by logging companies to the producer States. (6) Depreciation of legal activities due to the unfair concurrence. Despite multiple efforts, the results in the combat of illegal logging are far from satisfactory. Increase the certification area in parallel with an accurate control, devolve the state land to the ancient local owners, increase the cooperation between civil society and forest authorities, and finally strongly improve forest governance, particularly anti-money laundering laws, are crucial aspects in the combat of illegal logging. Furthermore, governments and businesses must implement the triple bottom line concept in order to reach sustainability.

Scenario analysis: a review of methods and applications for engineering and environmental systems

Abstract: Changing environment, uncertain economic conditions, and socio-political unrest have renewed interest in scenario analysis, both from theoretical and applied points of view. Nevertheless, neither the processes for scenario analysis (SA) nor evaluation criteria and metrics have been regularized. In this paper, SA-reported applica- tions and implementation methodology are discussed in the context of an extensive literature review covering papers published between 2000 and 2010. Over 340 papers were identified through a series of queries in the web of science database. The papers were classified based on the North American Industrial Classification System and SA appli- cation goals (environmental, business, and social). SA methodology used in each paper was assessed based on four main criteria: coverage, consistency, uncertainty assessment, and efficiency. We find a significant increase in SA applications, especially in the environmental field. Theoretical developments in the field represent a small fraction of published studies and do not increase in time. The methods used to develop different scenarios vary widely across the academic literature and applications reviewed. Similarly, the methods and data used to characterize the scenarios and develop response strategies are extremely diverse and are limited by factors such as computational tractability and available time and resour- ces. Based on this review, we recommend a regular process for scenario analysis that includes the steps of analysis, scenario definition, and evaluation.

Sustainable roofing technology under multiple constraints: a decision-analytical approach

Abstract: Recent efforts in the private and public sectors to move toward enhanced sustainability in the built environment have prompted the need to quantify and assess trade-offs among relevant sustainability metrics. Within the US military, for instance, many technological improvements are available to facilitate the achievement of net-zero goals for installations. These technologies must be assessed based on numerous performance criteria, and these technology selection decisions are difficult to make unaided. This paper seeks to demonstrate the use of decision-analytical techniques in which sustainable roofing technology alternatives (reflective, vegetated, or solar roofs) can be properly framed and assessed while evaluating the trade-offs between multiple performance criteria. Multi-criteria decision analysis methods are used to assess the impact of technology alternatives on sustainability framed within the popular concept of the triple bottom line (economic, societal, and environmental concerns). The framework developed in this paper can be applied to other sustainability technologies (energy, water, waste) or portfolios of numerous technologies.

Heuristics and biases in cyber security dilemmas

Abstract: Cyber security often depends on decisions made by human operators, who are commonly considered a major cause of security failures. We conducted 2 behavioral experiments to explore whether and how cyber security decision-making responses depend on gain–loss framing and salience of a primed recall prior experience. In Experiment I, we employed a 2 × 2 factorial design, manipulating the frame (gain vs. loss) and the presence versus absence of a prior near-miss experience. Results suggest that the experience of a near-miss significantly increased respondents’ endorsement of safer response options under a gain frame. Overall, female respondents were more likely to select a risk averse (safe) response compared with males. Experiment II followed the same general paradigm, framing all consequences in a loss frame and manipulating recall to include one of three possible prior experiences: false alarm, near-miss, or a hit involving a loss of data. Results indicate that the manipulated prior hit experience significantly increased the likelihood of respondents’ endorsement of a safer response relative to the manipulated prior near-miss experience. Conversely, the manipulated prior false-alarm experience significantly decreased respondents’ likelihood of endorsing a safer response relative to the manipulated prior near-miss experience. These results also showed a main effect for age and were moderated by respondent’s income level.

Resilience certification for commercial buildings: a study of stakeholder perspectives

Abstract: Infrastructure resilience has become a primary objective for homeland and national security organizations over the past decade. Recent initiatives have focused on resilient building design, and one approach under consideration is a voluntary resilience certification program for commercial buildings. The intent of this program would be to encourage the adoption of resilient design practices in construction and planning of the buildings. While resilience may be a frequently discussed concept within the security communities, its level of awareness within the construction, design, insurance, and building owner communities is not well known. Given the voluntary nature of the certification program under consideration, program development requires a comprehensive understanding of resilience as defined by the commercial building stakeholders. Toward this end, Sandia National Laboratories conducted a study of stakeholder perspectives on resilience to ascertain factors that would serve as motivation for participation in the resilience certification program. This paper describes how Sandia performed the study and the resulting conclusions. One of the key conclusions that the study found is that the term resilience is unfamiliar to many and inconsistently defined across the industries. Those familiar with the term frequently linked it to sustainability concepts. The study also found that increased participation in the resilience certification program is very likely affected by demonstrable returns on resilience investments and a public–private partnership model for program administration.

Outsourcing sustainability: a game-theoretic modeling approach

Abstract: As a response to stakeholders’ interest in sustainable products and services, an organization may change its approach to sustainability issues, from isolated social and environmental projects to corporate sustainability strategies and practices that are part of their core business. However, many of the efforts associated with these sustainability strategies cannot be directly exerted by focal organizations. We consider the situation in which a focal organization (sustainability buyer) outsources sustainability efforts to another organization (sustainability seller). While buyers cannot directly exert sustainability efforts, they can provide economic or technical support to their sellers in order to incentivize these efforts. We investigate how the effort and support decisions change according to characteristics of stakeholders, buyers, and sellers. Additionally, the presence of sustainability-minded stakeholders may lead to buyers’ competition on the sustainability effort exerted by their sellers. Therefore, we extend our analysis of sustainability efforts and incentives to the case of two competing buyers, and we determine conditions under which sharing a seller is preferred by the buyers to having a separate seller for each buyer.

Assessing ICT risk through a Monte Carlo method

Abstract: To assess and manage the risk due to an information and communication system before its deployment, data of interest can be produced by a Monte Carlo method. This paper presents Haruspex, a software tool that applies a Monte Carlo method to simulate intelligent and adaptive threat agents that reach predefined goals through plan with several attacks. The samples that Haruspex collects are used to compute statistics on the agent’s impacts and their plans as well as to select cost-effective countermeasures. We describe the rationale and the implementation of Haruspex, the inputs it requires and the simulation of how the agents select and implement their plans. After discussing the validation and the performance of the first version of Haruspex, we present a case study and the first set of experimental results.

Trends in cyberspace: can governments keep up?

Abstract: Whether carried out by individuals or states, cyberattacks are both growing in number and becoming more sophisticated. Since the attack on Estonian cyber infrastructure in 2007, many other examples of massive attacks have been reported. The use of spyware and malware—such as with Stuxnet, DuQu or Flames—to disrupt critical infrastructure has made headlines, questioning the ability of governments and private actors to respond to cyber threats. A broad array of potential threats poses a substantial challenge to existing governance structures, which are often behind the curve in comparison with the dynamically evolving cyberspace. Using existing literature and recent foresight studies, the article analyses the trends in the governance of cyberspace and their implications for governments and global regulatory regimes.

Uncertainty modelling in multi-criteria analysis of water safety measures

Abstract: Water utilities must assess risks and make decisions on safety measures in order to obtain a safe and sustainable drinking water supply. The World Health Organization emphasises preparation of Water Safety Plans, in which risk ranking by means of risk matrices with discretised probability and consequence scales is commonly used. Risk ranking enables prioritisation of risks but there is currently no common and structured way of performing uncertainty analysis and using risk ranking for evaluating and comparing water safety measures. To enable a proper prioritisation of safety measures and an efficient use of available resources for risk reduction, two alternative models linking risk ranking and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are presented and evaluated. The two models specifically enable uncertainty modelling in MCDA and they differ in terms of how uncertainties in risk levels are considered. The need of formal handling of risk and uncertainty in MCDA is emphasised in the literature and the suggested models provide innovations that are not dependent on the application domain. In the case study application presented here, possible safety measures are evaluated based on the benefit of estimated risk reduction, the cost of implementation and the probability of not achieving an acceptable risk level. Additional criteria such as environmental impact and consumer trust may also be included when applying the models. The case study shows how safety measures can be ranked based on preference scores or cost-effectiveness and how measures not reducing the risk enough can be identified and disqualified. Furthermore, the probability of each safety measure being ranked highest can be calculated. The two models provide a stepwise procedure for prioritising safety measures and enable a formalised handling of uncertainties in input data and results.

Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

Abstract: Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play a major role in addressing the challenges of sustainability management, especially the core question of how to scan the future in a structured, integrated, participatory, and policy-relevant manner. In a context of systems engineering, scenario analysis can provide an integrated and timely understanding of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several resource and infrastructure systems: (1) water resources (2) land-use corridors (3) energy infrastructure, and (4) coastal climate change adaptation. The case studies emphasize a participatory approach, where scenario analysis becomes a means of incorporating diverse stakeholder concerns and experience. This approach to scenario analysis provides insight into both high-performing and robust initiatives/policies, and, perhaps more importantly, influential scenarios. Identifying the scenarios that are most influential to policy making helps to direct further investigative analysis, modeling, and data-collection efforts to support the learning process that is emphasized in adaptive management.

Climate engineering and climate tipping-point scenarios

Abstract: Many scientists fear that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have set the Earth on a path of significant, possibly catastrophic, changes. This includes the possibility of exceeding particular thresholds or tipping points in the climate system. In response, governments have proposed emissions reduction targets, but no agreement has been reached. These facts have led some scientists and economists to suggest research into climate engineering. In this paper, we analyze the potential value of one climate engineering technology family, known as solar radiation management (SRM) to manage the risk of differing tipping-point scenarios. We find that adding SRM to a policy of emissions controls may be able to help manage the risk of climate tipping points and that its potential benefits are large. However, the technology does not exist and important indirect costs (e.g., change in precipitation) are not well understood. Thus, we conclude the SRM merits a serious research effort to better understand its efficiency and safety.

Decision framework for evaluating the macroeconomic risks and policy impacts of cyber attacks

Abstract: Increased reliance on the Internet for critical infrastructure and the global nature of supply chains provides an opportunity for adversaries to leverage dependencies and gain access to vital infrastructure. Traditional approaches to assessing risk in the cyber domain, including estimation of impacts, fall short due to uncertainty in how interconnected systems react to cyber attack. This paper describes a method to represent the pathways of disruption propagation, evaluate the macroeconomic impact of cyber threats and aid in selecting among various cybersecurity policies. Based on state of the art agent-based modeling, multicriteria decision analysis, and macroeconomic modeling tools, this framework provides dynamic macroeconomic, demographic and fiscal insights regarding shocks caused by cyber attacks to the regional economy over time. The interlinkage of these models will provide a robust and adaptive system that allows policy makers to evaluate complex issues such as cybersecurity threats and their impacts on the geopolitical, social, environmental, and macroeconomic landscape.

Multiscale approach to the security of hardware supply chains for energy systems

Abstract: While the cybersecurity field has focused primarily on software and network security, threats and vulnerabilities of hardware device supply chains are growing concerns. Of particular importance and interest in this vein is the way in which semiconductors and other electronic devices are increasingly deployed to support energy distribution, storage, and control at a variety of scales. Future smart grid supply chains must be secured to prevent cyber attacks from affecting energy infrastructure, and the societal and economic functions on which they depend. This perspective paper calls for a multiscale approach to address modeling and decision-making for energy system hardware supply chains. A multiscale approach, as discussed in this paper, can facilitate resilience of supply chains across the life cycles of these systems, through low- and high-tech techniques to monitor and act on the supply chain. This can incorporate both qualitative and quantitative factors to suit the variety of stakeholders, geographic scales, organizational levels, and planning and operational time horizons.

Multi-hazard, multi-infrastructure, economic scenario analysis

Abstract: Over the past 10 years, the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) has conducted over 150 detailed multi-hazard, multi-infrastructure scenario analyses of a wide range of man-made and natural disasters. Using a model-based implementation of the Department of Homeland Security risk management framework, NISAC analyzes scenarios ranging from extreme-event situational awareness to long-term strategic policy for improved homeland security and resilience to these events. This article describes the essential elements of the NISAC scenario analysis process, the toolkit of subject-matter expertise and models used, with a particular focus on the economics component. An example set of Hurricane Katrina economic-analysis results is used to illustrate basic elements of NISAC economics scenario analysis.

Multiple-criteria decision-aiding framework to analyze and assess the governance of sustainability

Abstract: Past and present disasters and scandals, such as the BP Deepwater Horizon oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, the Servier Mediator (Benfluorex) scandal in 2009 and the Enron collapse in 2001, have uncovered weaknesses in governance issues. The authors argue that there is a need to develop methods and tools to diagnose and assess the governance of organizations with respect to Sustainable Development (SD). However, this task remains difficult due to the fact that it is difficult to appraise the quality of governance. The authors propose a protocol to diagnose and analyze the governance of SD and explore the use of multiple-criteria decision-aiding methods to achieve this task. Two aggregation methods to assess the global governance are proposed: (1) The identification of a final governance index for an Organization. This method helps in establishing a global diagnosis of the quality of the governance of an Organization with respect to SD challenges. The governance index is based on the calculation of three indexes: the partial opportunity index, the partial risk index and the partial equilibrium index. (2) The ranking of a set of Organizations according to their governance of SD. This method aims at assessing a set of Organizations based on a pairwise comparison according to a set of criteria that represents the seven domains of the ISO 26000 norm (ISO 26000—Guidance on social responsibility, 2010). This method is based on the outranking aggregation approach ELECTRE III. A practical example is used to illustrate two methods of governance assessment.

Cyber risk to transportation, industrial control systems, and traffic signal controllers

Abstract: This paper is a result of a cyber risk assessment with a goal of increasing awareness to operators of infrastructure, managers, and political leadership. Senior executives and political leaders have a very limited understanding of industrial control systems (ICS) and of the crucial role ICS provide to public/private infrastructure, industry, and military systems. Therefore, to accomplish our purpose, we conducted a cyber-risk study focusing on a bridge tunnel ICS and a cyber event that tampered with traffic light operation—two scenarios of concern for senior leaders. In this paper, we present the analytic approach, discuss our model and simulation, and analyze the results using a notational data and generic system description. As a result of this study, we were able to discuss the importance of controls systems with senior leaders. We were able to demystify what we mean by “cyber”, showing that it is possible through simulation to inject the effects of cyber scenarios of concern into simulations to assess impact. Most importantly, during a system audit, ICS operators with decades of engineering experience began to realize that the ICS is vulnerable to willful intrusion.

Distributed travel time savings of a multiscale transportation access management program

Abstract: Access management in transportation planning can save travel time, reduce crashes, and increase route capacities. The planning literature suggests a need for performance metrics and a decision-aiding framework to guide access management programs across large corridor networks and diverse time horizons. This paper describes a quantitative framework to support access management programs, applying multicriteria analysis and cost-benefit analysis with parameter uncertainties. The metrics used to assess relative priorities at existing access points include the following: travel time delay index, traffic exposure, value of time, and costs of typical access management activities. Uncertain parameters that influence the estimates of the potential benefits and costs are identified and treated via a numerical interval analysis. The framework is demonstrated at several geographic scales and locations including 7,000 km of highway arterials of a 110,000 square-kilometer region and several sub-regions. The results assist decision makers to identify route segments that should be addressed sooner by eliciting additional information, reserving right-of-way, closing access points, planning new alignments, facilitating development proffers, etc. The approach is transferable to other topics involving resource allocation for preservation and improvement of multiscale infrastructure systems.

Architectural scoring framework for the creation and evaluation of System-Aware Cyber Security solutions

Abstract: As cyber security threats have evolved, system protection strategies have been forced to as well. The field of System-Aware Cyber Security has introduced a variety of protection strategies and this has prompted the need for a decision support tool set to provide guidance to the system designers. This paper outlines an architectural scoring framework that supports the design and selection of architectural candidates and provides a rigorous quantitative method for the evaluation to aid in the selection of a final architecture. Additionally, this paper outlines the recognized limitations of the proposed approach and provides a brief overview of how those areas for improvement are guiding future research.

Four domains of cybersecurity: a risk-based systems approach to cyber decisions

Abstract: With pervasive reliance on information technology, the robustness and security of these systems are critical to diverse infrastructure systems and particularly to resilience of industry, military, society, community, etc. As safeguards evolve and are implemented, adversaries develop novel ways to breach information technology systems, access sensitive data, and disrupt critical infrastructure. While significant advances in the field of cybersecurity have been achieved, solutions have focused more on the technical issues at component levels such as threat detection, encryption, and other mitigation procedures and technologies and less on how to address overall cyber-influenced risk and to support decisions at level of large-scale systems. This issue explores the theory, methods, and applications of systems analysis for cybersecurity (including software and hardware and other perspectives) with linkages to other subject areas such as risk management, systems engineering, and strategic decision-making. In particular, there is a need to approach cybersecurity risks from a multi-scale, systems perspective, recognizing the diverse interactions among cyber, physical, and human systems (Lambert et al. 2013). In this direction, our first paper frames the rest of the issue in terms of cyber-resilience, wherein Linkov et al. (2013) discuss how decision-makers require the ability to plan for threats and absorb, recover, and adapt to threats after they occur along the physical, information, cognitive, and social domains in which these systems exist. The remaining articles are organized by these domains respecting that several of the articles cross domains.

Beyond geomorphosites: trade-offs, optimization, and networking in heritage landscapes.

Abstract: This study uses Danxiashan, a world heritage site in Guangdong province, China, as a case study for planning a hypothetical geotourism network of heritage sites. This landscape has a multiplicity of values—its geoheritage cannot be separated from its ecological or cultural heritage. When designing a network of heritage sites for such a diversely valued landscape trade-offs must be made between differing and potentially conflicting objectives such as geotourism and geoconservation. To solve this multi-criteria decision problem, sites with potential value for people were designated as heritage sites, adapting the concept of geomorphosites—i.e., geomorphological heritage sites—to represent the intersection of anthropic values. In a GIS-based spatial decision support system heritage values for each site were weighted and ranked using the analytic hierarchy process and scenarios for alternative trail systems, and networks of tourism sites were generated by multi-criteria map overlay analysis and networking algorithms. The scenarios generated show how trade-offs can be made between oft-conflicting tourism and conservation objectives, how the design of parks can be optimized for multiple objectives, and how alternative design strategies can be explored. Such an approach could be used in scenario planning workshops to engage stakeholders in participatory design and consensus-based decision-making driven by geospatial science.

Simulation and mathematical programming decision-making support for smallholder farming

Abstract: Many mathematical programs have been developed over the past 50 years to aid agricultural experts and other farming decision-makers. The application of these mathematical programs has seen limited success because their development has focused on mathematical theory as opposed to the requirements needed for application. This paper describes the development of two mathematical programs that were designed to integrate with a visualization simulation that aids a nontraditional group of agricultural decision-makers: illiterate Sri Lankan subsistence farmers. The simulation was designed to help these illiterate farmers make business decisions about their crop selection choices which, in turn, will help them develop their business plans required for obtaining bank micro-loans. This paper’s focus is on the use of linear programming as a potential tool to demonstrate the benefits of crop diversification and rotation to the farmer based on various available crop types. It also highlights the issues using such an approach.

Cyber first aid: proactive risk management and decision-making

Abstract: Public and private organizations need a robust approach to prepare, respond, and recover from cyber-attacks. This perspective article will refer to such an approach as Cyber First AID—adaptable, integrated, and deliberate. Adaptable describes that one size does not fit all; Integrated means the effort is throughout the organization; and Deliberate describes plans that are reviewed periodically and practiced, in which all members of the organization know their respective roles and responsibilities. The article outlines a decision-making process for how to minimize the impacts of cyber threats, maintain stakeholder and customer confidence, and help organizations to adaptively manage and respond to cyber threats in rapidly changing cyber environments.

Climate change risk management: a Mental Modeling application

Abstract: The potential impacts of climate change are varied and highly uncertain, and pose a significant challenge to agencies charged with managing environmental risks. This paper presents a comprehensive and structured Mental Modeling approach to elicit, organize and present relevant information from experts and stakeholders about the factors influencing environmental risk management in the face of climate change. We present and review an initiative undertaken by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to characterize climate change challenges to USACE environmental risk management activities, and to identify gaps with respect to science, engineering, and organizational processes for addressing these challenges. By employing Mental Modeling, the research has characterized the influences of climate change on USACE environmental risk management, and aggregating recommendations from 28 experts. In addition, the study identifies the most important opportunities to improve organizational response to climate change, ranging from focused research and development of technical capabilities to broad paradigm shifts and systemic organizational improvements within the USACE environmental risk management programs. This study demonstrates that Mental Modeling is a useful tool for understanding complex problems, identifying gaps, and formulating strategies, and can be used by a multitude of organizations and agencies.

On the use of scenario analysis in combination with prescriptive fire safety design requirements

Abstract: Experience with fire safety engineering under a performance-based fire safety regulation regime shows that the majority of the analyses performed are scenario based. A comparison with purely pre-accepted performance requirement is made in order to assess the relative safety level of the alternative design compared with the pre-accepted design. We find this approach problematic because it undermines the value of performing analyses. The approach accepts oversimplification and justifies unrealistic assumptions on the basis that it will not affect the comparison. This distances the analyses from reality and reduces their value to answer a yes/no question on acceptability. The considerable time and resources spent on searching for and analyzing a pre-accepted design could be spent on analyzing the design at hand. If fire safety analyses are to have any real impact on design, it is necessary that regulators strengthen the position of analytical design. This must include a provision of a clear set of performance goals, which are possible to transform into quantitative evaluation criteria by the engineers, to avoid comparisons with pre-accepted performance requirements.

Cyber international relations as an integrated system

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to conceptualize the hitherto separate domains of Cyberspace and International Relations into an integrated socio-technical system that we jointly call the cyber International Relations (Cyber-IR) system and to identify and analyze its emergent properties utilizing the methods common to science and engineering systems adapted here for the social sciences. Our work is an exploration in both theory and methodology. This paper (a) identifies the actors and functions in the core systems, Cyberspace, and IR, (b) disambiguates system boundary, (c) creates a design structure matrix (DSM), a matrix of the interdependencies among functions of actors, (d) analyzes DSM qualitatively to show multiple interdependent and heterogeneous Cyber-IR properties, and (e) analyzes quantitatively the differential importance of core functions as well as the impact of actor attributes on influence in Cyber-IR. This work forms a baseline for further understanding of the nature of the heterogeneous influences of the various actors and the various outcomes that could result from it.

Support of sustainable management of nitrogen contamination due to septic systems using numerical modeling methods

Abstract: Nitrogen contamination is a serious concern to sustainable environmental management, and one important source of nitrogen contaminant is due to wastewater treatment using onsite sewage treatment and disposal systems (OSTDS, a.k.a., septic systems). This paper presents a study in which numerical modeling is used to support sustainable decision-making and management of nitrogen contamination by utilizing a recently developed GIS-based software, VZMOD, a Vadose Zone MODel for simulating nitrogen transformation and transport in vadose zone between drainfield of septic systems and water table. VZMOD is based on a physical model of unsaturated flow and nitrogen transformation and transport, and the model is solved numerically using the finite element methods. This is the major difference between VZMOD and other GIS-based software of nitrogen modeling. Using GIS techniques, VZMOD considers spatial variability of a number of hydrogeologic parameters such as hydraulic conductivity and porosity. A unique feature of VZMOD is that VZMOD addresses spatial variability of water table by using VZMOD together with ArcNLET, an ArcGIS-based software developed to simulate groundwater flow and nitrate load from septic systems to surface water bodies. VZMOD is designed to execute in different modes to be compatible with different levels of data availability in various management projects of nitrogen contamination. This paper presents an application of VZMOD at a neighborhood with hundreds of septic systems and heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and water table depth. The modeling results indicate that using septic systems at the considered neighborhood is unsustainable and more management means are necessary.