Showing papers in "European Journal of Political Research in 1998"

A touchstone of dissent: Euroscepticism in contemporary Western European party systems

Abstract: With the recent acceleration of the integration process of the European Union there has been a rise in political parties expressing either scepticism or outright criticism of the nature of the integration process. Using a four-fold differentiation between single issue, protest, established parties and factions within parties, the first part of the article presents an overview of Euroscepticism within EU member states and Norway. This reveals the diversity of sources of Euroscepticism both in ideology and in the types of parties that are Eurosceptical but with a preponderance of protest parties taking Eurosceptical positions. The second part of the article is an attempt to map Euroscepticism in West European party systems through a consideration of ideology and party position in the party system. The conclusions are that Euroscepticism is mainly limited to parties on the periphery of their party system and is often there used as an issue that differentiates those parties from the more established parties which are only likely to express Euroscepticism through factions. Party based Euroscepticism is therefore both largely dependent on domestic contextual factors and a useful issue to map emergent domestic political constellations.

Turnout in electoral democracies

Abstract: We examine turnout in 324 democratic national lower house elections held in 91 countries, between 1972 and 1995. We rely on Freedom House ratings of political rights to determine whether an election is democratic or not. We distinguish three blocs of factors that affect turnout: the socio-economic environment, institutions, and party systems. We show that turnout is influenced by a great number of factors and that the patterns that have been shown to prevail in studies dealing with more limited samples of countries generally hold when we look at a larger set of democracies. But we also show that the socio-economic environment, which has been downplayed in previous studies, has a substantial impact on turnout.

The ecological correlates of right–wing extremism in Western Europe

Abstract: This study traces the evolution of right-wing extremism, conceptualized as latent electoral support for extreme right-wing parties (i.e., vote intention), in six Western European countries (i.e., Belgium, France, the Netherlands, West Germany, Denmark, and Italy) between 1984 and 1993. Employing a pooled time-series cross-sectional research design, the author examines the relative strength of three popular explanations of contemporary right-wing extremism: the impact of economic conditions (unemployment and inflation), social developments (immigration), and political trends (public's dissatisfaction with the political regime). Evidence is presented in support of the last two explanations. Rising levels of immigration and public dissatisfaction with the political regime significantly facilitate right-wing extremism. Contrary to the initial hypothesis however, results suggest that a declining national economy (unemployment in particular) diminishes the electoral appeal of extreme right-wing parties.

The transformation of cleavage politics The 1997 Stein Rokkan lecture

Abstract: In this lecture I discuss the development of the social divisions in Western Europe and their translation into politics. I successively take up the three aspects embraced by the notion of ‘cleavages’ – their structural base, the political values of the groups involved, and their political articulation. My main argument is that the decline of traditional cleavages does not necessarily signify the end of structuration of politics by social divisions. There is ample empirical evidence for the existence of a new social division between two segments of the new middle class, which has important consequences for politics. This new social division is shown to be closely linked to the new ‘value cleavage’ although it is not able to fully account for the enormous political implications which contrasting value-orientations have today. Finally, I suggest that the political articulation of both the transformed class structure and the new configuration of values is strongly shaped by the political legacy of traditional cleavages.

The impact of constitutional structures and collective and competitive veto points on income inequality in industrialized democracies

Abstract: This paper presents the first systematic, empirical examination of the impact of constitutional structures on income inequality among eighteen OECD countries. Our pooled time series/cross-sectional panel analysis (n = 18, t = 2) reveals that consensual political institutions are systematically related to lower income inequalities while the reverse is true for majoritarian political institutions. We also make a crucial distinction between 'collective' and 'competitive' veto points. Our multiple regression results provide strong evidence that collective veto points depress income inequalities while competitive veto points tend to widen the inequality of incomes. Thus, some institutional veto points have constraining effects on policy while others have 'enabling' effects.

Voter ideology in Western Democracies, 1946– 1989

Abstract: We propose a measure of voter ideology which combines party manifesto data compiled by Budge, Robertson, Heari, Klingemann, and Volkens (1992) and updated by Volkens (1995), with election return data. Assuming the comparability and relevance of left- right ideology, we estimate the median voter position in 15 Western democracies throughout most of the postwar period. The plausibility of our assumptions, and therefore the validity of our measure, is supported by the results of several validity tests. With this new measure we are able to make cross-national comparisons of voter ideology among these countries as well as cross- time comparisons within individual countries. We discuss the potential application of our measure to various debates in political science.

Party government in 20 democracies: an update (1990–1995)

Abstract: The country tables of the data collection ‘Political Data 1945–1990. Party Government in 20 Democracies’ (European Journal of Political Research, Vol. 24, No. 1 (July 1993), pp. 1–119) are updated and corrected to the end of 1995. Errors and omissions on the level of separate Ministers and/or Ministries have been corrected as well. These are listed as ‘changes/corrections’ in the corresponding tables in the original data collection.

Direct democracy in switzerland: do elites matter?

Abstract: Direct democratic institutions, while centrepieces of the Swiss political system, find themselves under attack. In this article, we challenge the widespread criticism that popular rights increasingly limit the political elite's control of the decision-making process. Our analysis is based on aggregate data of all acts voted on by the Swiss Parliament since 1947 – those brought about by popular initiatives or those subject to optional and mandatory referendum – and on individual survey data on most federal votes held since 1981. We underline the high support of government and the impact of elite consensus on the destiny of legislative acts in the plebiscitary phase (submitted to a vote or not, subsequently accepted or not). While congruent with the aggregate analysis, results obtained at the individual level are less clear-cut. The influence of voting recommendations and information channels on the voter's decision appears rather weak.

The history of conditional agenda-setting in European institutions

Abstract: The purpose of this article is twofold. Our first goal is to make explicit an institution- alist theory of European integration. This theory is based on the concept of 'conditional agenda setting', which we argue has played an important role in European integration. According to this theory, the fact that Commission proposals are more easily accepted than modified by the Council has accelerated the pace of integration. This finding brings us to the second goal of this article which is to investigate, by studying the history of EU institutions, whether or not these institutions were the result of conscious planning. We demonstrate that while some of the founding fathers (Hallstein, Spaak) and opponents of the EU (de Gaulle) had an accurate understanding of the institutional structures created in Rome, later participants in the integra- tion process did not. In particular, the arguments surrounding the Single European Act indicate a lack of understanding of the full implications of the institutions selected.

The favourable factors for consociational democracy: a review

Abstract: The favourable factors for the establishment and maintenance of consociational democracy are among the most contested elements of consociationalism. The debate concerns both the favourable factors themselves and their status. The debate over the former is provoked by the inductive character; the debate over the latter can be traced back to an unresolved conflict between deterministic and voluntaristic elements in consociational theory. What is at stake is a trade-off between the empirical explanatory and predictive power of the consociational model on the one hand and its normative usefulness on the other. Shifting the focus from contextual variables to a theory of elite behavior may present a way out of the current stalemate. This would be in line with the recent interest in crafting democracies.

Voter turnout at the british general election of 1992: rational choice, social standing or political efficacy?

Abstract: Analyses of turnout in British general elections fall broadly into two camps: those based on constituency-level data, and those based on survey data. The former stress the importance of local context, while the latter stress personal characteristics and viewpoints. Underlying both are a range of theories purporting to explain turnout. However, to date, there has been little systematic attempt to analyse turnout in the round. In this paper, we combine survey and constituency data to study the individual and contextual correlates of turnout at the British general election and 1992. Constituency level analyses seem to confirm the importance of local context, though it declined during the 1980s. However, and contrary to analyses which employ constituency data only, while individual electors' decisions on whether or not to turn out are influenced by their personal circumstances, they are not influenced by local context.

Self‐destructive processes in institution building and some modest countervailing mechanisms

Abstract: Why is institution building difficult? Why does it often turn out to be self-destructive? And how does it take place in spite of its difficulties? Extending an analytical framework developed by James March (1991), this paper tries to tackle these questions by examining the dilemma between the exploration of alternative institutional arrangements and the exploitation or refinement of current ones. Institution building is viewed as a problem of adaptive intelligence and learning in the intertemporal allocation of resources. Some basic self-destructive processes and failure cycles associated with the exploration/exploitation dilemma are identified and discussed; implications are drawn for four distinct domains: competency, self-interest, identity, and trust. In the second part of the paper three basic modes of institution building are illustrated: focal points, increasing returns, and institutional bricolage. These are shown to be modest but viable mechanisms for countervailing self-destructive dynamics and for building institutions.

The classification of democratic regime types: conceptual ambiguity and contestable assumptions

Abstract: This article examines the classification of regime types. It shows that most writers classify regime types with reference to both their dispositional properties (whether there is a president and/or a prime minister, whether or not they are popularly elected and whether or not they serve for a fixed term) and their relational properties (the actual patterns of executive politics in the political system). It is argued that this juxtaposition of dispositional and relational properties creates a conceptual ambiguity. As a result, it is concluded that classifications of regime types should be made on the basis of either dispositional or relational properties but not both together. It then shows that writers who classify regime types with reference to relational properties are likely to make highly contestable assumptions about how power is actually exercised. This is because the question of where executive power lies in a particular country is often subject to not just one incontestable interpretation but to a number of contestable and mutually exclusive interpretations. This point is illustrated by examining the case of the Fifth French Republic. Therefore, it is concluded that the classification of regime types should be made with reference to dispositional properties alone.

Electoral participation in the Netherlands: Individual and contextual influences

Abstract: Research into electoral participation has produced two traditions, one focusing mainly on individual level explanations while the second concentrates primarily on aggregate level explanations. By bringing these two research approaches together, we are not only able to explain individual electoral participation more thoroughly, but we also gain additional insight into the influence of aggregate level characteristics on individual behavior. We combine eight National Election Studies held in the Netherlands between 1971 and 1994 enabling us to study variation on the individual and the contextual (aggregate) level, including interactions between these two levels. Findings show that the addition of contextual characteristics form a significant improvement to an individual level model predicting electoral participation. Findings also confirm our expectation that the influence of individual characteristics such as education or political interest is dependent upon contextual characteristics describing for instance the salience of the election.

Issue News and Electoral Volatility: A Comparative Analysis of Media Effects during the 1994 Election Campaigns in Germany and the Netherlands

Abstract: This article shows that issue coverage in the media partly explains both the political landslide at the 1994 elections in the Netherlands and the political continuity in the 1994 elections in Germany. Theories of issue voting guided the research. Issue ownership theory maintains that voters will remember which party has the best record of solving problems in emphasized issue areas. Proximity models and directional models suggest that voters' own issue positions will be compared to the perceived issue positions of parties. A longitudinal content analysis of ten newspapers and five television news programmes was performed to as- certain selective issue emphasis and the issue positions attributed to parties. Election outcomes and weekly opinion polls were used to measure the volatility of the vote.

Anchoring Political Preferences: The Structural Bases of Stable Electoral Decisions and Political Attitudes in Britain

Abstract: The paper applies a structural perspective to the analysis of political preferences. Examining two British surveys, the 1987 cross-section of the electorate and a panel survey that covers the 1983 and 1987 elections, the research explores the bases of persistent voting for the same party, location on left-right scales, and the probability of holding the same policy views on a host of different issues over time. A set of structural variables rests at the heart of the paper';s theory: discussion networks, patterns of interactions with members of political parties, social class networks, and location in the social structure. Several hypotheses guide the analysis: The effects of the structural variables on the probability of casting a ballot for the same political party in any one election and in adjacent elections will remain, even after controlling for party identification; political party socialization; location on left-right scales; positions taken on any and all political issues; age, and past levels of electoral stability. The effects of structural variables on left-right position will remain, even after controlling for locations on alternative left-right scales. Finally, reinforcing attitudinal context provides the only consistent determinant of stable policy positions, after controlling for a host of alternative explanations including level of education; age; interest in politics, and a general propensity to offer stable answers to political questions.

Policy convergence and policy feedback: Agricultural finance policies in a globalizing era

Abstract: In a comparative study of five countries: Australia, Canada, the Republic of Ireland, the UK, and the USA, this article examines the degree of convergence of agricultural credit policy content, policy instruments, and policy outcomes on a market liberal model. It shows that all five countries have moved toward market liberal policy arrangements over the past quarter century of globalizing and domestic fiscal pressures, but important differences in policy remain. The Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom move further toward a market liberal model than do Australia, Canada, and the USA. The distinct national paths taken to market liberalism give rise to policy feedback that hastens or retards the adoption of a fully market liberal system. Historical choices of policy instruments and path dependence help account for continuing policy divergence.

Issue news and electoral volatility

Abstract: This article shows that issue coverage in the media partly explains both the political landslide at the 1994 elections in the Netherlands and the political continuity in the 1994 elections in Germany. Theories of issue voting guided the research. Issue ownership theory maintains that voters will remember which party has the best record of solving problems in emphasized issue areas. Proximity models and directional models suggest that voters' own issue positions will be compared to the perceived issue positions of parties. A longitudinal content analysis of ten newspapers and five television news programmes was performed to ascertain selective issue emphasis and the issue positions attributed to parties. Election outcomes and weekly opinion polls were used to measure the volatility of the vote.

Duverger's concept: Semi–presidential government revisited

Abstract: The article attempts to follow up the fate of the concept Maurice Duverger created to explain the regime of the French Fifth Republic: semi-presidential government. Duverger expounded the concept in his fundamental book Echec au roi in 1978, trying to illustrate the fact that regimes of this type worked quite differently in the seven Western and Northern European countries that institutionalized it. ‘Semi-presidentialism’ is now widely, but very often controversially, used. The recent appearance of such regimes in newly democratizing states points to the fact that this form of government is often the preferred solution in times of transition. A critical review of Duverger's concept seems expedient as the diversification of these regimes raises new and perhaps intriguing questions. Due to the rejection of Duverger's concept or its ignorance in parts of the European scientific community, it is necessary to defend it as an important tool for political analysis. Moreover, it opens the opportunity for the examination of fundamental problems in political science.

The literature on European parties and party systems since 1945: A quantitative analysis

Abstract: This article analyses the structure and evolution of the literature on parties and party systems in Europe since 1945. Using a bibliographical database comprising all references to scientific work on parties and party systems, we propose an innovative quantitative analysis. The completeness of our database allows us to show in detail the evolution of the literature over time. On the basis of a systematic coding of all references with respect to the type of parties, the countries and topics covered, as well as the language, place and type of publication, we propose a detailed quantitative analysis of the literature in all its dimensions. The result of our exploration is an accurate map of the literature on political parties in Europe.

Postmodern Europe and the Resources of Communal Identities in Northern Ireland

Abstract: Irish Nationalist and Ulster Unionist communal identities have territorial, cultural and economic resources. Catalysts that have mobilized these resources and produced political action include 19th century famine and the Northern Ireland civil rights campaign of the late 1960s. As we approach the 21st century and the conditions and concepts of postmodernity initiate change in the structure and operation of the state, the European Union may realize its potential to affect the resources of communal identity and produce further change in the constitution and structural alignment of Irish Nationalist and Ulster Unionist identities. EU integration and structural initiatives have postmodernist contingencies that are beginning to redefine the structural space of Northern Ireland. The future development of these contingencies will be a fundamental factor in determining the extent to which Irish Nationalist and Ulster Unionist communal identities escape the embrace of modernity and develop with the postmodern world.

The parliamentary elite in transition

Abstract: Only two years after the critical elections of 27 March 1994, the Italian parliamentary election of 1996 marks another important step in the transformation of the political class. The extent of turnover is declining, and the renewal of the parliamentary elite shows some signs of stabilization. This article inquires into the differences in the sociological configuration of the new elite, and whether this means that new consolidated pathways to the parliamentary elite now already exist. The article analyzes the distribution of freshmen in the political class, the return of old backbenchers in the new political parties, the social and occupational background of MPs and, finally, their local and political experiences. In the final section, the article discusses some hypotheses about the perspectives on the recruitment of Italian MPs, focusing in particular on the effects of the structural crisis of political parties and the introduction of the plurality system. An empirically-derived typology of professionalization patterns is also provided.

Place, post‐industrial change and the new left

Abstract: This article argues for the importance of place and policies addressed to it in recent post-industrial political transformations. My analysis focuses on the performance of Left parties in French and German cities with universities since the 1960s. Despite similar shifts in the occupational and sectoral bases of politics in the cities of both countries, these transformations followed divergent trajectories. In Germany decentralized policymaking, physical legacies of previous urban planning, and mobilization around land use and related issues gave rise to the most solid local strongholds of the Greens. In mid-sized and smaller cities, local constraints on growth itself resulted. In France centrally led expansion, less developed local policies and less planned urban structures contributed to emergent Socialist majorities and weaker, more contingent local Green performance. In both countries the environmental concerns and consumption interests linked to spatial amenities have given a new, altered significance to the geographic determinants of politics.

Electoral alliances: Party identities and coalition games

Abstract: The emergence of electoral alliances competing for plurality seats has been one of the main consequences stemming form the introduction of the new electoral laws for the Senate and the Chamber of deputies in Italy. This paper analyzes the politics of electoral alliances at the general elections of April 1996, focusing on two factors: the making of electoral alliances and their internal arrangements for coalition management. From both points of view, the elections have shown some important new developments, including a simplification in the number of coalitions. But although the centre-left alliance was able to broaden its range, the centre-right lost the Lega Nord and suffered the split of Movimento sociale-Fiamma tricolore on its right. Moreover, the centre-right alliance also suffered from a lack of cohesion, wasting its previous coalitional capability. As in the 1994 elections the politics of electoral alliances proved to be a key factor in the electoral competition.

Popularity functions for the Portuguese Prime Minister, Government, Parliament and President

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to estimate popularity functions for the Portuguese Prime Minister, Government, Parliament and President using the ordinary least squares (OLS) and seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) methods. The results indicate that: (1) popularity polls for the Prime Minister and Government are better explained by economic conditions than are similar polls for the Parliament and President; (2) unemployment is a significant variable determining popularity while inflation is not; (3) honeymoon effects are significant; (4) popularity deteriorates over consecutive terms.

An overview of the state of research on women and politics in spain

Abstract: This article is an overview of quantitative and qualitative research on women and political decision-making in Spain. Ten parts of the literature are examined including: government and legislative; public administration; political parties; employers’ organizations; unions; pressure groups and lobbies; social movements and NGOs and womens’ policy machinery. The future prospects of filling the enormous gaps in the research are negative, given the weak institutionalization of gender studies in Spain.

Majoritarian miracles and the question of party system change

Abstract: The 1996 elections in Italy may be evaluated using a dual means of inquiry: which novelties (or the absence thereof) appear with respect to 1994? And, how many and in what way (if any) do they contribute to the definition of a new type of party system and a new logic of political competition? As regards the former perspective, we address three questions which represented fundamental issues at the time of the vote: (a) Would the new electoral system manage to provide a clear and stable governmental majority where it had failed to do so in 1994? (b) Would the political parties and alliances have changed their offers to the voters? (c) Would the voters have changed their behaviour, adapting it not just to any new offers, but especially to the logic of majoritarian competition? Regarding the latter perspective, these questions can be amalgamated into a single enquiry: Do the 1996 elections constitute a decisive step in the direction of a new party system, or are they a step backwards, or do they simply present a static picture?

Media and politics in French political science

Abstract: The study of the relationship between media and politics has long been marginal in French political science. The take-off of research has been stimulated by the impact of the Presidential election under the Fifth republic and by the increasing role of television and spin-doctors in this new electoral context. If French studies on political communication converge with international research, they are also characterised by strong peculiarities. The material of case-studies is not campaign-centred, but gives room to various TV programmes, to a wide range of media uses by French politicians. The contribution of historians, the influence of a literary tradition of ‘textual’ analysis of political speech are important. The publishing of books on this topic also reveals a surprisingly intense participation from spin- doctors, journalists and even politicians. Three main ‘schools’ are contributing to the dynamics of French research. Linked to the tradition of semiological and literary studies the first one focuses on the study of political discourse in the media. Merging the legacy of English-speaking studies and the French tradition of electoral studies a second one develops an analysis of the campaigning process and of its effects. More recently, a new generation of researchers has widened the object of research to the complex network of relations between politicians, journalists and consultant. Linking successfully the most recent developments or international research and the peculiarities of academic tradition, research on political communication appears as one of the most dynamic areas of French political science.

How to lose a majority: the competition in single–member districts

Abstract: Few observers expected that the 1966 elections in Italy would yield a clear-cut outcome. Even fewer people expected that, after the disastrous results of the previous elections, the centre-left coalition would be able to gain a majority of seats in both branches of Parliament. Yet this is precisely what happened on 21 April 1996. This article tries to explain the comeback of the 1994 losers by focusing on three factors which have changed the electoral balance between the two major coalitions in the single-member districts. The first factor was the ability of the centre-left coalition (Ulivo-RC) to broaden its range while its major rival (the Polo) lost key allies. The result has been a more competitive stand of centre-left candidates, particularly in the North. The Polo lost the support of the Lega Nord and suffered the split of the Movimento Sociale on its right. These defections, along with others, led to the loss of a considerable number of seats. Finally, the Polo also suffered from the defection of a considerable number of its voters who voted for one of the parties of the centre-right coalition in the proportional arena, but refused to vote for the Polo candidate in the single-member districts. We conclude by suggesting a number of hypotheses that could explain this split-ticket phenomenon.

Platforms, media and voters

Abstract: The paper presents data on party platforms, political communication and public opinion in the 1996 Italian election campaign. It is shown that the electoral platforms of the two major coalitions were largely overlapping, except for some economic and social issues. The centre-right coalition seemed more inclined to adopt pro-market policies, while the platform of the Ulivo coalition was more oriented toward a social partnership approach. In the month before the elections, policy issues were discussed on television more extensively than political issues. Public and private networks covered the 1996 election campaign at the same level as in 1994 and to some extent with the same bias. Voting intentions seem to have remained stable prior to and during the electoral campaign.