Showing papers in "Foresight in 2011"
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors put the paper by Jay Ogilvy in the context of current debates around the philosophical foundations of future studies and found that the practical challenge of taking a "scenaric stance" as articulated in "Facing the fold" cannot be addressed without going beyond the typically epistemological solutions proposed by most futurists.
Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to put the paper by Jay Ogilvy in the context of current debates around the philosophical foundations of future studies.Design/methodology/approach – The paper takes the form of a review and analyzes the current literature on foresight and philosophy of the future.Findings – The paper finds that the practical challenge of taking a “scenaric stance”, as articulated in “Facing the fold”, cannot be addressed without going beyond the typically epistemological solutions proposed by most futurists.Research limitations/implications – The challenge is not finding ways to “know” the future, rather to find ways to live and act with not‐knowing the future.Practical implications – The “scenaric stance” points to a way of embracing what Henri Bergson calls “the continuous creation of unforeseeable novelty.”Social implications – The “scenaric stance” offers one way of addressing the difficult, often deeply painful challenge of reconciling the desire for certainty with the desire t...
49 citations
TL;DR: This publication contains reprint articles for which IEEE does not hold copyright and which are likely to be copyrighted.
Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to present an assessment framework which captures the essential characteristics and holistic success factors for disruptive innovation based on the original theory of Christensen, a number of clarifications as reported in the literature and a study of known, successful cases in the literature.Design/methodology/approach – The framework was designed based on the improved understanding of disruptive innovation challenges and on the holistic consideration of innovation as a dynamic process. It consists of structured questions which could be used to guide detailed data collection and analysis needed to answer the key questions which constitute the assessment framework. They are grouped under market positioning, technology and other favourable drivers.Findings – A simple yet comprehensive assessment framework for disruptive innovation has been developed. Two of the known successful cases, namely the steel minimill of Nucor and the 3.5 inch disk drive of Conner/Seagate, were presented ...
47 citations
TL;DR: A comparative study was performed to measure the semantic similarity between academic papers and patents in order to discover research fronts that do not correspond to any patents.
Abstract: Purpose – This paper seeks to propose a method of discovering uncommercialized research fronts by comparing scientific papers and patents. A comparative study was performed to measure the semantic similarity between academic papers and patents in order to discover research fronts that do not correspond to any patents.Design/methodology/approach – The authors compared structures of citation networks of scientific publications with those of patents by citation analysis and measured the similarity between sets of academic papers and sets of patents by natural language processing. After the documents (papers/patents) in each layer were categorized by a citation‐based method, the authors compared three semantic similarity measurements between a set of academic papers and a set of patents: Jaccard coefficient, cosine similarity of term frequency‐inverse document frequency (tfidf) vector, and cosine similarity of log‐tfidf vector. A case study was performed in solar cells.Findings – As a result, the cosine simil...
41 citations
TL;DR: The intention is that a quickly accessible and concise overview of the main methods being employed in contemporary foresight can be easily reproduced into a format suitable and portable for managers to consult when in project meetings to design foresight processes and select methods.
Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to fill a perceived gap in the tool bag of a foresight practitioner – namely the need for a quickly accessible and concise overview of the main methods being employed in contemporary foresight, and some guidance on when and how one can select or combine several methods within a single project or focus area to achieve the best results. The intention is that such a primer can be easily reproduced into a format suitable and portable for managers to consult when in project meetings to design foresight processes and select methods.Design/methodology/approach – Using a matrix table plus some text analysis and diagrams, a concise review of the dominant and most innovative tools for framing technology foresight processes is developed and summarized.Findings – The paper produces 13 foresight methods classified, summarized and referenced with a limited selection of literature references.Practical implications – The intention is that the main table and diagrams can be easily copied to a sta...
39 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore the possibilities of combining foresight techniques and intellectual capital management, as two approaches of participatory strategic management, in higher education institutions, to generate concrete benefits for prospective strategic management in the academic sector.
Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to explore the possibilities of combining foresight techniques and intellectual capital management, as two approaches of participatory strategic management, in higher education institutions. The objective is to generate concrete benefits for prospective strategic management in the academic sector. It also aims to focus on how it may be possible for universities to address the challenges of major change management programmes by implementing foresight and intellectual capital management models.Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews recent literature both on conceptual issues and experiences in relation to foresight and intellectual capital. The paper presents an ongoing project focused on the development of a vision for the future of the higher education system in Romania and a frame to differentiate Romanian universities.Findings – A proposal of an integrated use of foresight and intellectual capital management for universities is suggested. The case study presented illus...
38 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore beyond the knowledge economy and venture into the wise society, and present a review of existing publications and original thinking to contribute to the understanding and the development from knowledge to wisdom.
Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore beyond the knowledge economy and venture into the wise society. Design/methodology/approach – The paper is a review of existing publications and original thinking. Findings – The word is at the dawn of the wise society. Science and universities have a crucial role to play on the path towards such a society. Originality/value – The paper contributes to the understanding and the development from knowledge to wisdom.
33 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a brief political and economic history of African colonization and de-colonization, globalisation and the rise of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICs).
Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to construct a possible future scenario for South Africa in Africa using the backcast approach.Design/methodology/approach – The methodology followed is to present a brief political and economic history of African colonization and de‐colonization, globalisation and the rise of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICs). Strengths and weaknesses are discussed and used to sketch a desired future scenario from which the backcast is constructed.Findings – It is suggested that the optimal future is one involving SADC‐MERCOSUR alliance with South Africa and Brazil as the respective leadersResearch limitations/implications – A study of this kind is necessarily speculative.Practical implications – The paper alerts policy makers to the threats and opportunities inherent in south‐south dialogue.Social implications – The prospect of collaboration holds promise of social upliftment in the region.Originality/value – The arguments are original to the author.
31 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors distinguish self-citations from external citations, and further divide citations into two groups: within the industry and beyond the industry, and evaluate the spill-overs between industries and forward citations are used to evaluate the significance of technology-based industry transformation.
Abstract: Purpose – Fusion of new technologies and convergence has led to the emergence of new industries. This paper aims to present experiences of the concept of convergence from a patent citation analysis viewpoint. The main objective of the paper is to develop a tool for anticipating the emerging new industry segments. Design/methodology/approach – The patent analysis methods have been used to get an idea of the stage of new industry segment in the intersection of the paper and electronics industries. The authors distinguish self-citations from external citations, and further divide citations into two groups: within the industry and beyond the industry. Backward citations are used to evaluate the spill-overs between industries and forward citations are used to evaluate the significance of technology-based industry transformation. Findings – The recognized trends of the trajectory changes and growing overlaps of technological fields show indications for possible convergence between industries. Differentiating between external and self-citations within and beyond industry citations helps to provide more comprehensive prospects of a future technology competitive environment. Research limitations/implications – This study evaluated technology development in converging environments. It would be a scientifically significant contribution if the novel patent analysis methods could be used effectively for creating understanding in advance about the technology development and industry convergences. Originality/value – The presented patent citation methodology provides new insights into the analysis of industry evolution, technological innovations and business development related to converging industries and technologies.
30 citations
TL;DR: In this article, an instrument measuring managerial foresight was developed and assessed, and the authors outlined the construction and estimation of the instrument through the estimation of a set of tools and techniques.
Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to develop and assess an instrument measuring managerial foresight.
Design/methodology/approach – The paper outlines the construction and estimation of the instrumentthrou ...
29 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors draw on the social theory of practice to show scenario thinking as an everyday practice and how the practice could be theorised at the meso-level by placing emphasis on the mundane and taken for granted activities that come together to form the nexus of the practice.
Abstract: Purpose – The aim of this paper is to draw on the social theory of practice to show scenario thinking as an everyday practice and how the practice could be theorised at the meso‐level.Design/methodology/approach – Counterfactual analysis, scenario analysis and peripheral vision are presented as the constituting methodological triad through which scenario thinking comes into representation.Findings – Scenario thinking is a temporally emerging everyday organizational practice. By placing emphasis on the mundane and taken for granted activities that come together to form the nexus of the practice, often deep underlying structures of organizational behaviour contributing to scenario thinking can be theorised.Research limitations/implications – The practice conceptualisation of scenario thinking inverts and challenges existing management and practitioners' conventional understanding of the practice as an episodic phenomenon in waiting to be facilitated by an expert with specific end points and conformity.Pract...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors make a case for a scenaric stance that holds high road and low road futures in mind at once, and demonstrate the significance of scenario planning for attitudes toward the future.
Abstract: Purpose – The objective of this paper is to make a case for a scenaric stance that holds high road and low road futures in mind at once. Opening with regrets about the total eclipse of Utopian thinking, the paper aims to move on to embrace both aspirational futures and a forthright recognition of the many ways in which things could go wrong. Adopting a scenaric stance amounts to a new, fourth attitude toward historical time and the future. The ancients lived in an ahistorical, cyclical time. Second, modernity embraced a progressive and optimistic approach to the future. Third, post‐modernity turns pessimistic about the future. Fourth, a new scenaric stance vindicates Utopian optimism by pairing it with a forthright recognition of pessimistic possibilities.Design/methodology/approach – This is a reflective, almost philosophical paper that articulates a new attitude toward the future, which demonstrates the significance of scenario planning for attitudes toward the future.Findings – A scenaric stance can re...
TL;DR: In this article, an exploratory assessment model was designed via the use of a survey questionnaire, a case study, and interviews of managers who were involved in the corporate foresight project.
Abstract: Purpose – The overall aim of the research is to provide an assessment of the level of the reported success of foresight project results of a multinational company in Turkey.Design/methodology/approach – The model of assessment is based on an integrated framework characterized by approaching foresight as a project and associating it by the redefined pitfalls in, and success factors of, corporate foresight projects in order to facilitate better conversion of their results into actual changes in corporations. A multinational company in Turkey (Siemens Turkey) is chosen for the exploratory case study. The exploratory assessment model was designed via the use of a survey questionnaire, a case study, and interviews of managers (who were involved in the corporate foresight project).Findings – Results of the individual assessment of corporate foresight project at the company were labeled as “successful”. There needs to be given an overall attention to the process‐oriented elements of the foresight project. Pitfal...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss the process and results of a scenario exercise applied to the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industries with a 2020 horizon, based on the nature and dynamics of the key forces and trends, the four scenarios identified are: southern experience; global emotions; sin surprise; and non-charming Portugal.
Abstract: Purpose – This paper seeks to discuss the process and results of a scenario exercise applied to the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industries with a 2020 horizon.Design/methodology/approach – Through an intuitive‐logical process adapted to the specific purposes of the research, four alternative scenarios of the evolution of the industry were developed. The exercise involved three workshops, with the participation of a group of experts, academics, representatives from industry and local government.Findings – Based on the nature and dynamics of the key forces and trends, the four scenarios identified are: southern experience; global emotions; “sin surprise”; and non‐charming Portugal. In all scenarios there is increased global competition amongst tourist destinations. A desire for authenticity opens the opportunity for Portugal as a tourist destination but it also poses challenges for managers and policy makers. These scenarios are of practical use for managers, policy makers and other practitioners as ...
TL;DR: This paper investigated the degree to which people in the Gambia rely on the capitalist market economy for their livelihood and found that only a small minority of households in contemporary Gambian society rely on formal market economy alone to secure their livelihood, while the vast majority depend on a plurality of market and non-market economic practices.
Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to evaluate critically the meta‐narrative that there is no alternative to capitalism. Building upon an emerging body of post‐structuralist thought that has begun deconstructing this discourse in relation to western economies and post‐Soviet societies, this paper further extends this critique to Sub‐Saharan Africa by investigating the degree to which people in the Gambia rely on the capitalist market economy for their livelihood. Reporting the results of 80 household face‐to‐face interviews (involving over 500 people), the finding is that only a small minority of households in contemporary Gambian society rely on the formal market economy alone to secure their livelihood and that the vast majority depend on a plurality of market and non‐market economic practices. The outcome is a call to re‐think the lived practices of economic transition in Sub‐Saharan Africa in general and the Gambia in particular, so as to open up the feasibility of, and possibilities for, alternative economic ...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assess the relationship between the foresight of managers and firm performance and find a moderate and statistically significant positive relationship between managers' foresight and firms' performance.
Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the relationship between the foresight of managers and firm performance.Design/methodology/approach – An evolutionary perspective is deployed to specify the presumed relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance measures. A positive relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance is proposed. The hypothesis is tested through Spearman's rho, on Swedish managers, and firms in the computer programming industry. Managers' foresight as well as performance is assessed as indexes.Findings – The paper finds a moderate and statistically significant positive relationship between managers' foresight and firm performance.Research limitations/implications – There is support for the theoretical relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance. There is a strong rationale for further studies.Originality/value – The paper provides empirical evidence regarding the importance of managerial foresight for firm performance.
TL;DR: How three incumbent mobile network operators in Germany forecasted, framed and responded in terms of their strategy to the emergence of the wireless local area network technology (W‐LAN) and how they interpreted this potential technological disruption in their own strategic context is studied.
Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to study how three incumbent mobile network operators (MNOs) in Germany forecasted, framed and responded in terms of their strategy to the emergence of the wireless local area network technology (W‐LAN) and how they interpreted this potential technological disruption in their own strategic context.Design/methodology/approach – Drawing on empirical evidence from case studies conducted with these three major MNOs in Germany using the theoretical framework of disruptive technology, the results were then evaluated in a cross‐case analysis to study how these firms interpreted and reacted to the potential disruptiveness of W‐LAN. To meet this objective, an explorative, multiple and holistic case study design was utilized. Data was collected by the combination of information gained through semi‐structured interviews with key informants and background information that were publicly available. Interviews were conducted with company representatives using a semi‐structured interview guide. ...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine how the conceptualization of development has evolved and how, given emerging global economic trends, this might affect the development industry in Africa, and explore the interplay of ideas and practice, identifies key global drivers and considers their significance for Africa over the next generation.
Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to examine how the conceptualization of development has evolved and how, given emerging global economic trends, this might affect the development industry in Africa. It explores the interplay of ideas and practice, identifies key global drivers and considers their significance for Africa over the next generation.Design/methodology/approach – Adopting a historical approach, the paper chronicles the changes in the epistemological foundations of development thinking over 60 years of development theory and practice. It also explores how concurrent changes in the international context for development have influenced both the thinking on and management of development. The paper undertakes a scenario analysis in search of an African development narrative that is more appropriate to the challenge of African prosperity over the next 20‐30 years.Findings – It is shown that the contemporary view of development represents an epistemological shift from a perspective defined by the actual expe...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on the good news coming from Africa and reflect on ideas discussed at the 2010 Africa 2060: Good News from Africa conference organized by Boston University's Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future.
Abstract: Purpose – The aim of this paper is to better understand the good news coming from Africa and reflect on ideas discussed at the “Africa 2060: Good News from Africa” conference in April 2010 organized by Boston University's Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer‐Range Future.Design/methodology/approach – Africa's performance over the last 50 years has been akin to a roller coaster ride of good news followed by bad news, with the bad news dominating. However since the dawn of the millennium Africa's outlook has increasingly become optimistic. As one looks at Africa's future, several questions emerge: which of these gains can be consolidated? Which of the positive trends will be sustained? Has this recent period of global attention provided the continent with a real institutional scaffolding on which a positive future can be built? And what needs to be done to ensure that the dangers of chronic poverty, conflict, and institutional collapse that still lurk in the shadows will be contained long ...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors highlight efforts of an emerging market economy, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), in complementing the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) initiative.
Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to highlight efforts of an emerging market economy, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), in complementing the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) initiative. This is a growing phenomenon that has brought about a major shift in the international business landscape with emerging markets at the center.Design/methodology/approach – The exploratory nature of the paper prompted the need to draw upon media reports and other official documents in a bid to stimulate academic interest in Masdar City – the world's first zero‐carbon city in Abu Dhabi (capital of the UAE) as a business case illustration.Findings – Masdar City remains arguably the world's acclaimed first zero‐carbon, zero‐waste city fully powered by renewable energy and poised to attract leading international expertise, academics, commerce, and residents. It also sets a standard for other emerging market players to emulate in this resurgent wave in the “internationalisation of innovation into emerging markets”.Social impl...
TL;DR: The Prospective through Scenarios futures process used in a study called the “Workplace of the Future” is outlined, which discusses how and why the methodology evolves over the course of the project with participant feedback as the main source of information for the analysis.
Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to demonstrate that it is important to have a methodological process that is reflexive and flexible to achieve fluid interactions that add rigour and energy to the overall process of a built environment projectDesign/methodology/approach – This paper outlines the Prospective through Scenarios futures process used in a study called the “Workplace of the Future” It also discusses how and why the methodology evolves over the course of the project with participant feedback as the main source of information for the analysisFindings – Change is the one factor in the Prospective through Scenarios methodological development that ensures the participants to think deeply and laterally in a futures process, from which a value‐driven process is achievedOriginality/value – Novel futures techniques have been applied to a discipline that is usually reactive and quantitative – workplace provision and facilities management
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors put the two concepts (futures and think tank) into context and explained how they are going to be used in this paper, and the aim is not to engage on a prediction exercise about African futures but rather to understand, think about and explore long-term trends and how they may impact on alternative African futures.
Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this article is to understand alternative African futures as an aid to improved decision‐making and action by governments and by other key agents and stakeholders.Design/methodology/approach – The authors aim is to put the two concepts (“futures” and think tank) into context and explain how they are going to be used in this paper. The aim is not to engage on a prediction exercise about African futures but rather to understand, think about and explore long‐term trends and how they may impact on alternative African futures.Findings – The journey towards a knowledge economy is a difficult one and the experiences elsewhere in the world show that governments on their own can not succeed without assistance from think tanks. This means that as African governments are trying to map out new visions for the future, think tanks can grab the opportunities provided by the current realities to continue playing a meaningful role in shaping African futures.Originality/value – Africa's complex cha...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors summarize the outcome of the special issue exploration on the theme "Is Africa the land of the future?" and conclude that Africa faces a range of internal and external opportunities and challenges.
Abstract: Purpose – This editorial aims to summarize the outcome of the Special Issue exploration on the theme “Is Africa the land of the future?”.Design/methodology/approach – The paper contextualises and synthesizes the set of Africa‐themed foresight papers included in the journal issue.Findings – The exploration concludes that Africa faces a range of internal and external opportunities and challenges. These are historical, geopolitical, economic, demographic, psychological, and intellectual. Key drivers and analyses identified by seven authors are briefly presented.Research limitations/implications – The restricted number of papers that could be included in the single issue required a narrow selection from a large set of good papers and subject coverage. The issue and editorial therefore only address a few of the key drivers, in addition to some broad, foundational issues.Practical implications – Neither mere optimism nor pessimism will determine Africa's ultimate trajectory. Concerted ownership, foresight and c...
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assess changes in ecosystems and their services, and present scenarios for the future of ecosystem services in low-lying coastal areas and their impact on settlement patterns.
Abstract: 4 Introduction 5 Ecosystem services in low-lying coastal areas 6 Provisioning ecosystem services 8 Food 8 Regulating ecosystem services 9 Coastal protection 9 Atmospheric and climate regulation 9 Cultural and information ecosystem services 9 Aesthetic and recreational value 9 Supporting ecosystem services 10 Productivity 10 Nutrient cycling and waste processing 10 Conservation 10 Recent changes in ecosystems and their services 10 Invasive species 11 Coral reefs 12 Deltas 12 Kelp forests 12 How have changes affected settlement patterns? 13 Quantitative methods to assess changes in ecosystems and their services 16 Datasets 17 Projected changes in ecosystem services 18 Scenarios for the future 22
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the appropriate uses and limits of "visionary" scenario planning, and suggested a contrasting "adaptive" basis for scenario work, arguing that maintaining the purpose of scenario planning should be maintained.
Abstract: Purpose – There has been no shortage of rosy visions for the future of Africa or its regions. Almost without exception, these visions have been dashed by reality. The question therefore arises: “To what extent or under what conditions is visioning an ideal future a worthy exercise?” or “Under what conditions is it useful and when is it limiting?” In anticipating the future in general, and seeking a better future for Africa in particular, might foresight tools built on another (non‐visionary) basis provide better fruit? This paper aims to address this issue.Design/methodology/approach – The paper considers this question as it applies to scenario planning in particular, by investigating recent, contrasting case studies of scenario‐building activities in Africa (Tanzania and South Africa).Findings – The paper determines the appropriate uses and limits of “visionary” scenario planning, and suggests a contrasting “adaptive” basis for scenario work.Originality/value – It is argued that maintaining the purpose‐p...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe and evaluate the use of a five-step foresight process and the application of scenario methods to grasp the range of future alternatives that might confront researchers and research managers in European metrology research institutes.
Abstract: Purpose – The aim of this paper is to describe and evaluate the use of a five‐step foresight process and the application of scenario methods to grasp the range of future alternatives that might confront researchers and research managers in European metrology research institutes. The sector is to be examined as a part of a larger study that aims to reflect on the potential future roles for the public research institutes, in several sectors (the other sectors in the study included civil space, plant science, geosurveys, and marine), towards the development of the European Research Area (ERA).Design/methodology/approach – The paper illustrates how scenario methods were used to, first, serve as a basis for policy recommendations for the field of European metrology research institutes and, second, help experts and stakeholders to network and actively discuss a shared vision of the future of the field.Findings – This case demonstrates the need for proactive strategic management which goes well beyond the instit...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors outline four scenarios developed for the future of the South West Midlands region of England, including a literature review, interviews with employers and community leaders, a word association exercise and questionnair.
Abstract: Purpose – This paper seeks to outline four scenarios developed for the future of the South West Midlands region of England. Like many depressed regions in the UK, the foundation industries that initially developed the region have gone. Manufacturing is continuing to decline and the low‐skilled economic underpinnings of the region have all but disappeared. The population, however, has not changed with the times, but remains low‐skilled and largely unemployable to many of the industries the region is trying to attract to regenerate itself. Despite this economically depressed picture, the region is renowned for its sense of community and regional identity, and hence crime is uncharacteristically low given the economic and demographic circumstances of the region.Design/methodology/approach – A range of methodologies were employed to inform scenario building for the future of the region, including a literature review, interviews with employers and community leaders, a word association exercise and questionnair...
TL;DR: In this article, a series of possible policies are proposed that can be undertaken by Arab countries depending on their public policy, each of the suggested policies involves different scenarios that have been formed and analyzed using an era-based cellular planning system.
Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the economy of Persian Gulf countries following a post‐oil economy. This is accompanied with a futurology study and planning of certain scenarios that can be applied to these countries.Design/methodology/approach – This study applies a futurology approach by investigating various scenarios to explore the Arab economy after oil. As such, a series of possible policies are proposed that can be undertaken by Arab countries depending on their public policy. Each of the suggested policies involves different scenarios that have been formed and analyzed using an era‐based cellular planning system.Findings – The findings propose three main policies to be undertaken by Arab countries including: investing the oil income in miscellaneous economic baskets in order to minimize the vulnerability and maximize the profits; reducing the oil production in the coming years and transforming the one‐product oil economy to a value added petrochemical economy; and seeking new sou...